Why B.J. Penn Will Beat Joe Stevenson

by Luke Thomas on Jan 3, 2008 1:15 PM EST in News Comment 7 comments

We all likely recognize BJ has the obvious advantage in the striking department both in terms of polished technique and power. But what about the ground game or each fighter's cardio? Desert Dog correctly assess the situation. Notable quote:

In Joe's last fight with Pelligrino it was easy to see the holes in his game. Kurt opened up the fight picking Joe apart from the outside as he continually moved straight forward. Next, Kurt took Joe down repeatedly to control the first half of the fight. Of course during that first half Joe attempted 6 guilotines. In the second half, Kurt seemed to gas and Joe was able to turn the tide and applied some nice GnP. However, even with Kurt gassed Daddy was unable to get close to finishing the fight and on several occasions left himself wide open for some sloppy sub attempts by Pelligrino. Every fight is new, but Joe has been very very predictable in all of his past UFC fights.

BJ holds the advantage in all aspects of this match up except strength. Typically when two fighters with good ground skills are matched up we'll look to their stand up as a possible decider. Ignoring the standup for now, "The Prodigy" is very dangerous from any position if the fight hits the ground. Joes predictable guillotine attemptes could lead to one of BJ's counters like a head and arm choke variation, or whatever else BJ might have up his sleeve.

I'm not familiar with any head-and-arm choke set-ups from failed guillotine attempts, but the point still stands: even if you give Stevenson the edge in strength, it's not as if BJ hasn't routinely fought stronger opponents. Everyone bags on BJ for fighting in weightclasses for beyond his natural size, but perhaps that pays dividends with respect to experience. When you've fought significantly stronger fighters, e.g. Lyoto Machida, grappling with "strong" fighters in your weightclass can't be nearly as bad.

The fact is that aside from strength, I'm not sure Stevenson is better than BJ at anything. Stevenson has a more diverse wrestling arsensal, but BJ has an excellent skillset to neutralize capable wrestlers. Stevenson always has a "grappler's chance" in this fight, but I don't think he has much more.

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Re: Why B.J. Penn Will Beat Joe Stevenson

ufc.com has it's UFC 80: RAPID FIRE Preview up.

by Nick Thomas on Jan 3, 2008 2:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why B.J. Penn Will Beat Joe Stevenson

I think he's talking about an arm triangle setup off the guillotine, Jason von Flue vs Alex Karalexis for example.

by riley on Jan 3, 2008 2:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why B.J. Penn Will Beat Joe Stevenson

That was a modified side choke, not head and arm triangle.

by Luke Thomas on Jan 3, 2008 2:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why B.J. Penn Will Beat Joe Stevenson

please elaborate. Does the modified side choke not include the arm? I can't remember the Karalexis fight off the top of my head. Have a habit of snoozing thru Von Flue fights.

by Kid Nate on Jan 3, 2008 3:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why B.J. Penn Will Beat Joe Stevenson

The counter has a few names: recently it was dubbed the Von Flue choke, but its also called the closepin head and arm choke.

Here's a video of the technique:

http://www.brightcove.tv/title.jsp?title=372299526&channel=370573720

BJ used to have a sweet video of this technique but he's updating his site currently and it's about impossible to find anything there right now.

by Desert Dog on Jan 3, 2008 6:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why B.J. Penn Will Beat Joe Stevenson

I just learned the Von Flue Choke about a week or two ago. Here's a you tube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rkwpb7RBu90&feature=user

I don't see it working against a jits guy because they would never hang on to a guillotine unless they had at least half guard.

by Nate414 on Jan 3, 2008 11:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why B.J. Penn Will Beat Joe Stevenson

I knew when I saw 6 comments that it was all just going to be people talking about the von Flue.
It was also recently made popular in the IFL by Renzo's team. Although I can't remember which fighter did it.

by Simco on Jan 4, 2008 4:25 AM EST reply actions 0 recs