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Bloody Elbow Meta-Rankings: Welterweight

Fighter Points
1. Georges St. Pierre 29.83
2. Matt Serra 26.5
3. Matt Hughes 24.17
4. Jon Fitch 21
5. Karo Parisyan 17.5
6. Josh Koscheck 13.67
7. Jake Shields 11.17
8. Diego Sanchez 10
9. Carlos Condit 3.83
10. Nick Diaz 3
11. Akihiro Gono 2
12. Shinya Aoki 0.83
13. Nick Thompson 0.5
14. Marcus Davis 0.33
15. Hayato Sakurai 0.33
16. Akira Kikuchi 0.33

Another fun installment of the Bloody Elbow Meta-Rankings, this time we're doing the Welterweight division. Our methodology is at the bottom of the entry, but the main thing to keep in mind is that the Meta-Rankings aren't rankings, they're an analysis of how the MMA online community is ranking the fighters. Also note that we're only tracking fighters ranked in somebody's top 10. That's how we end up with different number of fighters Meta-Ranked in each division. We posted the Lightweight division and the Light Heavyweight division last week.

The numbers reveal some interesting things -- namely that there's a pretty clear consensus of how to rank the fighters in this division, at least the top 8. Instead of having several fighters bunched up with very close scores, there's 3.33 points between GSP at #1 and Serra at #2, another 2.33 between Serra and Hughes, 3.17 between Hughes and Fitch, 3.5 between Fitch and Karo, etc etc down to Diego at #8, then there's a huge gulf of 7 points between Diego and Carlos Condit at #9.

The UFC has 7 of the top 9 and when you count the WEC's Condit, Zuffa has 8 of the top 10 under contract but only 10 of the 17. Elite XC's Jake Shields and Nick Diaz are the top ranked non-UFC fighters, begging the question who are those guys going to fight that won't be a waste of time? Well, I guess that's true in Shields' case but Diaz can always rematch K.J. Noons who beat him by cut stoppage in November.

It's interesting to me that there is beginning to be chatter that the UFC welterweight division is getting thin. It's more a case of there being a clear heirarchy than it being a thin division. GSP looked so dominant over Matt Hughes and Josh Koscheck in his last outings that people are having a hard time seeing a tough challenge for GSP on the horizon. That may be the case but it doesn't mean its a thin division. I for one am eager to see Fitch vs Gono, Karo vs Thiago Alves, even Marcus Davis vs Jess Liaudin.

Rankings are based on an average of 6 Media Rankings (MMA Weekly, Sherdog, Irish Whip, MMA on Tap, our own Luke Thomas', and 5 oz of Pain), Fan Rankings (represented by MMA HQ Rankings) and Computer Rankings (represented by Fight Matrix). If we missed a good ranking someone is doing let us know, we'll add them to the mix. Particularly other computerized or fan vote rankings.

A #1 vote is worth 10 points, #2 is 9 points and so on. Media rankings are totaled and divided by 6 to represent the average media ranking, this is then added to the computer and fan ranking points to create the total (perfect score is 30 points).

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Re: Meta-Rankings: Welterweight
Once again, fantastic job guys. We're going to put a section on the site where everyone can see these.

by Luke Thomas on Jan 14, 2008 8:25 PM EST reply actions  

Re: Meta-Rankings: Welterweight
Good to hear.  These were a blast to put together...just from a learning standpoint.  And being a bit of a numbers dork it was a blast to work with Nate on figuring this all out.

by Brent Brookhouse on Jan 14, 2008 8:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: Meta-Rankings: Welterweight
Maybe it's just the Karo mark in me talking but it is hard for me to understand how it is almost universal that folks are placing Fitch over Karo.  Karo has five fights with guys in the top 15 and is 3-2 with wins over Thompson, Serra, and Diaz and losses to GSP and Sanchez. Fitch has only fought one guy in the top 15, that being a win over sanchez.  Fitch has a winning streak, but that hasn't been against top shelf talent.  I think folks are holding Karo's politicking for a title shot against him.

  Until Fitch faces and beats a few more guys in the top 15, I wouldn't put him ahead of Karo.

by robnashville on Jan 14, 2008 8:33 PM EST reply actions  

Re: Meta-Rankings: Welterweight
Karo had a chance to put a lie to those rankings and he chose to duck Fitch instead. I think if Karo loses to Thiago Alves he'll regret it deeply.
I also think Gono has a good shot at beating Fitch.

by Kid Nate on Jan 14, 2008 9:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: Meta-Rankings: Welterweight
plus there's the whole fact that Diego beat Karo and Fitch beat Diego. MMAth might not have predictive value but it certainly impacts the rankings.

by Kid Nate on Jan 14, 2008 9:16 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: Meta-Rankings: Welterweight
While MMA certainly seeps into the rankings, I think a bit of hype does too.  For instance,in the lightweights,  I think that tyson griffin and frankie edgar have achieved much more and faced better fighters than Huerta but most folks have Huerta the Hyped higher rated than either.  Kinda puzzling.

Back to the wlterweights, here is how i would have them ranked.

  1. Georges St. Pierre     
  2. Matt Hughes
  3. Matt Serra    
  4. Karo Parysian    
  5. Jake Shields    
  6. Jon Fitch    
  7. Josh Koscheck   
  8. Diego Sanchez    
  9. Carlos Condit    
  10. Sakurai
    

by robnashville on Jan 14, 2008 9:45 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: Meta-Rankings: Welterweight
Also I think the Karo train has been derailed a bit by the fact that everyone wanted him to fight for the title a year ago and he hasn't looked like a worldbeater in his last few fights.

I'd have him above Fitch were I doing my own ratings...but 7 of the 8 different rankings we used for this month disagreed (only one had Karo ranked higher).

by Brent Brookhouse on Jan 14, 2008 9:38 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: Meta-Rankings: Welterweight
It blows my mind how Serra is ranked so freakin high. At highest I would rank him at maybe the 9th spot. Just because you beat #1 doesn't mean you become #1. Someone explain to me how Rankings have him so high. Is GSP that good that who ever beats him regardless if there not even top 10 goes right to the top? Hmmm......yeah maybe he is.

by TitoG on Jan 14, 2008 11:04 PM EST reply actions  

Re: Meta-Rankings: Welterweight
Being champion in the biggest organization in the world carries a lot of weight.

by Brent Brookhouse on Jan 15, 2008 8:08 AM EST up reply actions  

Re: Meta-Rankings: Welterweight
Tito I agree completly They should let Hughes send serra into retirment after GSP mop the floor with him.
I dont care about the ranking but he talks way to much crap and needs to fight someone has it been more then a year already

by WhiteyBarrington on Jan 15, 2008 12:31 PM EST reply actions  

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