UFC Gambling
UFC On Fuel: Sanchez Vs. Ellenberger Betting Lines
by Tim Burke on Feb 13, 2012 9:00 PM EST
in UFC Gambling
Events like Wednesday's UFC on Fuel card are either very good for betting, or very bad for it depending on your perspective. If you have the time to do a lot of research and know some of the undercard fighters better than the linemakers, the potential is there to make a killing. On the other hand, betting on the unknown is not wise if you're not completely up to speed. I see two solid bets outside of the new guys though, so all is not lost.
The first is - the main event, and Diego Sanchez. No, I'm not crazy (despite what Nick Diaz fans might tell you). The Shields win earned Ellenberger plenty of justified hype, but I still have the Carlos Eduardo Rocha fight in the back of my head and Sanchez is a grinder. I expected the line to see Diego in the +175 to +200 range, not +250. I believe there is value in that bet, though I'll probably still be picking the Juggernaut in my predictions.
The other live dog I see is Vagner Rocha. While Brookins has good wrestling and is extremely tough to finish, Rocha has better submission skills and has only lost to much bigger men. At +175, he seems like a solid investment to me. Anyway, here are your lines for UFC on Fuel:
Lines via www.bodog.ca
Feb 15th, live on Fuel TV from Omaha, NE:
Main Card:
Diego Sanchez (26-5) +250 vs. Jake Ellenberger (23-4) -325
Dave Herman (21-2) -140 vs. Stefan Struve (22-5) +110
Ronny Markes (12-1) -115 vs. Aaron Simpson (11-2) -115
Philip de Fries (8-0, 1 NC) +350 vs. Stipe Miocic (7-0) -500
UFC 143: Diaz Vs. Condit Betting Lines
by Tim Burke on Feb 2, 2012 12:24 AM EST
in UFC Gambling
The line for the full UFC 143 card are now out, and there is money to be made. The main and co-main events are largely up to your own personal preferences, though Carlos Condit at +165 is a very good deal. I wouldn't normally recommend guys -200 and above unless they're locks (and the last time I did, Antonio Carvalho came up short for me), but Josh Koscheck at -240 and Renan Barao at -240 look pretty solid to me.
On the undercard, Michael Kuiper was a steal when the line first came out, and still has value now. Originally he was +225, but within a few hours he was down to +175. And I'm all over Edwin Figueroa too - come on, one Alex Cacares win doesn't convince me that he's got a future in the UFC. If you can get a Tickle Me Elmo doll at -145 against Cacares, you take that bet. A tank like Figueroa? Heck yeah!
Here's the whole card (prelims after the jump):
Feb 4th, live on pay-per-view from Las Vegas, NV:
Main Card:
Nick Diaz (26-7, 1 NC) -205 vs. Carlos Condit (27-5) +165
Roy Nelson (16-6) +120 vs. Fabricio Werdum (14-5-1) -150
Josh Koscheck (16-5) -245 vs Mike Pierce (13-4) +195
Renan Barao (27-1, 1 NC) -240 vs. Scott Jorgensen (13-4) +190
Ed Herman (19-7) -300 vs. Clifford Starks (8-0) +240
UFC 145: Jon Jones Opens As Massive Favorite Over Rashad Evans
by Tim Burke on Jan 30, 2012 4:12 PM EST
in UFC Gambling
After Rashad Evans beat Phil Davis at UFC on Fox 2, he sat at the post-fight press conference fielding questions about his upcoming bout with rival Jon Jones, currently scheduled as the main event of UFC 145 in Atlanta on April 21st. In one of the answers, he stated that he'd "probably be a huge underdog" going into the bout. Well, he was right about that. Bookmaker was the first site to drop a betting line for Jones vs. Evans, and it's pretty lopsided:
Honestly, it rarely gets wider than that for a UFC bout, especially a championship bout. Generally when seemingly-competitive title bouts open with lines like this (such has Lyoto Machida vs. Mauricio Rua 1 at UFC 104), there's a bunch of early betting on the underdog. Will that happen here? I'm not sure, but I'd lean towards no. Depsite Evans' dominant win over Davis, Jones is probably the most hyped man in the sport right now and has absolutely torn through the division thus far.
Will things be different for Jones when he's in there with a former training partner? And In quite possibly the first "personal" bout of his career? We'll find out on April 21st. For now though, the oddsmakers are certainly leaning in Jon's direction.
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UFC On Fox 2: Evans vs. Davis Betting Lines
by Tim Burke on Jan 25, 2012 9:30 PM EST
in UFC Gambling
The betting lines for the UFC on Fox 2 card are now out, and once you get past the main card there's not a whole lot going on. The main event line is basically correct in my eyes, but the other two are still a bit off. Chael Sonnen has actually become a bigger favorite since that line came out, and to me, Bisping at +355 is a good price. The Chris Weidman vs. Demian Maia line has gotten a lot closer since it opened, but there's still value on Maia at +125 in my eyes.
As for the undercard...meh. Einemo might be decent at +135 and I like Joey Beltran at -215, but that's about it. Anyway, here are all the lines (undercard after the jump):
Lines courtesy of bookmaker.eu
Jan 28th, live on Fox from Chicago, IL:
Main Card:
Rashad Evans (16-1-1) -175 vs. Phil Davis (9-0) +145
Michael Bisping (22-3) +355 vs. Chael Sonnen (27-11-1) -455
Chris Weidman (7-0) -155 vs. Demian Maia (15-3) +125
UFC on FX 1 Betting Lines
by Tim Burke on Jan 18, 2012 3:01 PM EST
in UFC Gambling
The UFC returns for their second event of the year this Friday night in Nashville, and it's full of tough picks. The odds are relatively close for most fights, and with good reason - no one's sure who is going to win. The main event line between Jim Miller and Melvin Guillard has closed slightly with some money coming in on Melvin's side, and I expect that to continue in advance of the fight. If you want to bet on Miller, wait until just before the fight.
In other main card bouts, Duane Ludwig opened as a bigger favorite but all the early money has come in on Josh Neer. Tread lightly in that fight though. Pat Barry has quickly emerged as a larger favorite than when the line opened, so jump on him right now if you're interested in betting on him (I already did). On the undercard, there's a whole lot of guessing. The only solid values that jump out at me are Jorge Rivera at +130 and Pat Schilling at +110 (and falling), but this doesn't seem like a card that you're going to be making a lot of money on. Sorry folks. Anyway, here are the lines (undercard after the jump as usual):
Lines via bookmaker.eu
Jan 20th, live on FX from Nashville, TN:
Main Card:
Jim Miller (20-3) -180 vs. Melvin Guillard (29-9-2) +150
Duane Ludwig (21-11) -130 vs. Josh Neer (32-10-1) EV
Mike Easton (11-1) -335 vs. Jared Papazian (14-6, 1 NC) +265
Pat Barry (6-4) -165 vs. Christian Morecraft (7-2) +135
Chael Sonnen Is A Huge Early Favorite Over Michael Bisping, Weidman Favored Over Maia
by Tim Burke on Jan 18, 2012 12:02 PM EST
in UFC Gambling
Yesterday was a busy day in the world of MMA, and one of the major stories was the UFC on Fox 2 card getting re-shuffled when Mark Munoz was forced out of his bout with Chael Sonnen. Sonnen now faces Michael Bisping, and Demian Maia will now face undefeated prospect Chris Weidman on the main card. Not long after the changes were made, the betting lines came out for the new matchups and the Sonnen/Bisping like is pretty crazy at first glance (line via Bodog.ca):
Sonnen -450
Bisping +325
While Chael should definitely be the favorite based on the style matchup, I never expected it to open with Bisping as such an underdog. As Brent stated yesterday, Bisping is tough to keep on the floor and is very active from the bottom. I'm not saying Bisping will win the bout, only that the line is off in my opinion. And as I said before, that's when I bet.
The third fight on the main card will feature prospect Chris Weidman taking Demian Maia, and while many are stating that it's too early for Weidman to take such a tough bout, the guys who set the lines (Bodog in this case) feel a bit differently:
Weidman -200
Maia +160
While Weidman has looked very impressive so far in his short career and has excellent wrestling, this is Demian Maia we're talking about. My money's on Maia already, as this line is bound to move closer to even in advance of their January 28th bout in Chicago.
UFC 142: Aldo Vs. Mendes Betting Lines
by Tim Burke on Jan 12, 2012 7:00 PM EST
in UFC Gambling
The lines for UFC 142 are out and wowsers, there is some money to be made on this card if you look at it from the right perspective. I'll admit I have steered you wrong in the recent past (Strikeforce didn't go exactly according to plan) but in terms of the UFC, my advice hasn't been so bad lately. So hear me out.
On the main card I think Vitor Belfort is an excellent bet, but that all depends on which way you're leaning. It's an even fight, and the odds reflect that. Other than that, I think Terry Etim is worth a look at +225 (he was +260 yesterday). Barboza is certainly flashy and entertaining, but he is a blue belt and could potentially get caught by the tricky Etim. The fight is closer than the line indicates, and that's when I bet.
On the undercard, you never know what you're going to get with Mike Pyle so I'm going to put a token amount of Ricardo Funch at +375. You might not know the name, but Antonio Carvalho is a solid, solid bet at -225. And Ednaldo Oliveira is precisely the kind of fighter Gabriel Gonzaga has big trouble with, so I think there's value there as well. I'd even jump on Alcantara at -200, because he'll probably end up at around -230 or -240 come fight time. Also, the early money is all on Thiago Tavares, so if you think Stout can beat him, wait until closer to fight time to get a better price than +115.
Anyway folks, here are all the lines (prelims after the jump):
Lines courtesy of bodog.ca
Jan 14th, live on pay-per-view from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil:
Main Card:
Jose Aldo (20-1) -300 vs. Chad Mendes (11-0) +230
Vitor Belfort (20-9) -105 vs. Anthony Johnson (10-3) -125
Mike Massenzio (13-5) +400 vs. Rousimar Palhares (13-3) -600
Carlo Prater (29-10-1) +350 vs. Erick Silva (13-1, 1 NC) -500
Edson Barboza (9-0) -285 vs. Terry Etim (15-3) +225
Jim Miller Opens As Favorite Over Melvin Guillard
by Tim Burke on Jan 12, 2012 5:00 PM EST
in UFC Gambling
While the focus is on UFC 142 this weekend, the betting line for next weekend's UFC on FX 1 main event between Jim Miller and Melvin Guillard dropped his week, and Miller is the betting favorite. Bookmaker opened the line on Tuesday, and it hasn't moved at all as of yet. Here's what it looks like:
Miller -200
Guillard +150
Guillard is coming off the surprising loss to Joe Lauzon at UFC 136, while Miller is coming off a decision loss to Ben Henderson at UFC on Versus 5. Both had been on long winning streaks before their recent loss. In terms of the line, I believe this is about right. The fact that the bout is a three-round fight doesn't seem to make much of a difference, though Miller would probably have an advantage if it went five. Miller holds advantages in enough areas (wrestling, cardio, chin) to deserve the favorable line. But I'm sure that many people see value in Guillard, and I think the line will push down into the -160/+130 range around fight time.
Basically, if you want the best price on Melvin Guillard, get on it now.
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