The international spice in this weekend's tasty Strikeforce sandwich eminates from Tokyo on Saturday as World Victory Road presents its final "Sengoku" event, before the switch to "Sengoku Raiden Championships" on New Year's Eve.

It's also the last big Japanese MMA event of the year until the dueling December 31st mega-shows, so won't you join us here at BloodyElbow.com for some live play-by-play and discussion? The show starts on HDNet at 2 AM Eastern / 11 PM Pacific, shortly after Strikeforce's "Challengers" event wraps up on Showtime.

Quick Results
Michihiro Omigawa def. Hatsu Hioki via split decision
Mamed Khalidov def. Jorge Santiago via KO (punches) R1
Jorge Masvidal def. Satoru Kitaoka via KO (punches) R2
Tomoaki Ueyama def. "Bull" Konno via technical submission (rear-naked choke) R1
Kazunori Yokota def. Eiji Mitsuoka via unanimous decision
Stanislav Nedkov def. Kevin Randleman via split decision
Akihiro Gono def. Yoon Young Kim via unanimous decision
Marlon Sandro def. Yuji Hoshino via KO (punches) R1
Dave Herman def. "Big" Jim York via KO (upkicks) R1
Ronnie Mann def. Shigeki Osawa via unanimous decision
Ryota Uozomi def. Yuichiro Yajima via submission (armbar) R2

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I just wanted to give a quick rundown of my impressions from attending the weigh-ins for Saturday evening's fights.

- Antonio Silva is big.  Like, you know it from looking at him on TV but he is one of those guys who when you see him in person you really appreciate just how big he really is.  He walked by me when I was hanging out in the media area before the general public was allowed in the building and it was an absolute "wow!" moment.

- The public turned out in good numbers.  When I first entered the building (roughly an hour before the scheduled doors open time) the line was already pretty long.  It wasn't exactly full capacity once everyone was let in the building but it was enough people to give it a "big time" feel.

- Mark Miller and Gegard Mousasi may have been the happiest (non-heavyweight) fighters I've ever seen before a weigh in.  Mousasi had trouble getting in the building with all the photo requests, but was generally pleasant and spent the pre-weigh in time walking around socializing.  Mark Miller was running around doing various things, laughing and jogging.  Neither guy appeared to have any problem getting to weight.

- Deray Davis has some crazy reach.  I'd like to see the actual numbers on his reach but I swear to god it looked like his arms could reach from one side of the stage to the other.  If he is able to use that length effectively Mark Miller is in for a fight.

- Brett Rogers is serious.  Rogers showed up in very good shape.  He didn't look like he was draining himself to get to 265 and actually looked quite slim compared to normal.  There was a moment where he gave Fedor an "I know something you don't" type of smile.  What does that mean for the fight?  Probably nothing.  But it was still interesting to see.

Tatame has been trying to get in touch with Paulo Filho since he no-showed last month's DREAM.12, and today the Brazilian site is finally able to give us the former WEC champ's side of the story:

"I had seen rumors online that I would only fight in November, then I slowed down my training and let loose on my weight. Four or five days before the fight, they call me saying that I'm going to fight, but I was no longer near the weight. But worse was that I wouldn't have had enough time to take care of the visa for Japan."

The fighter also reasons that his managers, Joinho Guimarães and Ed Soares, must have been too busy with their other clients - who include Lyoto Machida, Anderson Silva, Junior dos Santos and the Nogueiras - to remind him of the fight.

Filho is currently weighing 93 kilos (205 lbs.) but plans to fight at middleweight upon his return. (Date unknown, though there's another Bitetti Combat show in December.) He says that he's using this time off to rest and cure his sundry back, foot and hand injuries, as well as attend fights and study technique.

In this week's Wrestling Observer Newsletter (subscription required), Dave Meltzer reported that updated trending data since his original report suggests UFC 104 did better than expected, clocking in around 475,000 buys.  If the number holds up, it's a very strong showing for a show with no co-main event and a feature bout between Brazilians.  

The show supposedly did very well in Los Angeles, which is not surprising considering the huge media push in L.A.  They weren't able to convince a lot of people to buy 300 dollar tickets, but they convinced a lot of people to buy a 50 dollar show.  

The time between shows clearly affects pay per view numbers; there have now been a number of shows that smashed expectations because they came more than a full month after the last pay per view. This is something to watch if the January 2nd show doesn't get a bigger top fight.

Finally, and most importantly, it's great news for Lyoto Machida, who in his second fight as champion is already a stronger draw than Anderson Silva is three years into his title reign.  The rematch should do very strong numbers if and when it happens.

Make sure to join us at Bloodyelbow.com when HDNet's Inside MMA broadcasts "Fedor vs. Rogers" weigh-ins live at 6:00 PM EST:

Broadcast on HDNet has just begun!

Main Bouts (on CBS):
- Fedor Emelianenko (232 lbs) vs. Brett Rogers (264 lbs)
- Jason "Mayhem" Miller (184 lbs) vs. Jake Shields (184.5 lbs)
- Gegard Mousasi (205 lbs) vs. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou (204 lbs)
- Antonio Silva (263 lbs) vs. Fabricio Werdum (242 lbs)

Preliminary Bouts:
- Marloes Coenen (145 lbs) vs. Roxanne Modafferi (140 lbs)
- Jeff Curran (145 lbs) vs. Dustin Neace (150 lbs)
- Shamar Bailey (170 lbs) vs. John Kolosci (171 lbs)
- Deray Davis (170.5 lbs) vs. Mark Miller (171 lbs)
- Nate Moore (184 lbs) vs. Louis Taylor (185.5 lbs)
- Jonatas Novaes (155.5 lbs) vs. Christian Uflacker (156 lbs) 

Updates from Brent Brookhouse via text message:

Very good public turnout. They were just let in the building.

They’re showing the fight camp 360 thing

Jimmy Lennon getting the crowd into it, Showing the CBS Fight Preview for Tomorrow's show

They just said time permitting, they'll be showing the women's fight on CBS.

Aoki is on the stage

Henderson walking around doing autographs, Won't answer fans asking if he signed deal.

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Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Rogers
November 7, 2009
Sears Centre in Chicago, Illinois

Maincard:

Fedor Emelianenko vs. Brett Rogers

Luke Thomas: It's borderline irrational to pick Rogers. One would have to make a highly specific, extremely compelling case based on thoroughly vetted evidence to even sniff reasonable territory where a Rogers pick makes sense. But I will say this: I think he'll lose, but earn himself some credibility with hardcores. I do tend to think Rogers is highly durable and packs a serious wallop in his punch. He is limited and that will be his undoing, but the idea that he is some also-ran that Fedor will clean out like Ogawa after he refused to touch the Russian's gloves doesn't ring true with me. It's MMA and either man could go to sleep within seconds, but I find that possibility on either end unlikely. I think Rogers will be overwhelmed, but not before proving he isn't a warm body for Fedor to sacrifice on the altar of keeping his number one ranking. Fedor by TKO, round 2.

Kid Nate: Rogers is very formidable -- I'd love to see how he stacks up in the UFC heavyweight division against the likes of Kongo, Herring, Rothwell, Nelson, dos Santos, even Cro Cop -- but Fedor is FEDOR and there's a reason he's the greatest heavyweight of all time. Several reasons actually, including his hand speed, punching power, ability to transition, takedowns, ground and pound and submissions. Rogers has a punchers chance, but Fedor will win this one. Fedor Emelianenko by submission, Round 1.

Brent Brookhouse: When I wrote the piece breaking down Fedor's striking I was initially studying film to see where I thought Rogers may be able to get to him.  Instead it just cemented the fact that Rogers' only real chance is to catch Fedor in an exchange, unless he somehow developed into a more complete and tactical fighter.  To beat Fedor striking takes patience and timing, or blind luck.  As much as I like Brett he'll be relying on the latter.  Fedor Emelianenko by submission, round 1.

Michael Rome:  I'll open myself up for ridicule here.  I don't think this is even a fight.  Rogers is the new Houston Alexander, ranked high off a crazy upset but not even a "very good" fighter, let alone great.  I think he'll get killed standing too; this fight is designed for Fedor to massacre him.  Fedor via submission, round 1.

Chris Nelson: I've had this sinking feeling the past week or so, a little View-Master reel that flicks through my head wherein Brett Rogers comes out swinging, dusts Fedor in seconds, then does the big Grim dance while hoisting the WAMMA belt over his head (upside down). In truth, I've gotten this vibe before every Fedor fight since Mark Hunt, but Brett Rogers' comments today about feeling maybe a little psyched out by Fedor's demeanor told me what I already knew deep down: Fedor can't lose this fight. In fact, he may have already won. It simply shouldn't happen, and I don't believe it will. Fedor via submission, round one.

Eugene Schelfaut: I will offer a more maladroit expression of Rome's position. This feels like such a waste and afterward I will be left feeling incomplete and a little tired. Fedor Emelianenko by his name and TKO, Round 1. 

Nick Thomas: Fedor by clinch, takedown and submission.

Leland Roling: Fedor has the advantage in every aspect of this fight, including the striking game. The only real chance that Rogers has is if he can blast Fedor before the initial flurry of devasting blows peppers Rogers' face and ultimately leads to a takedown. I'll bank on Fedor winning that battle. Fedor Emelianenko via submission, Round 1.

Mike Fagan: I think we all know where I stand on this fight.  Rogers offers very little (at least from what we've seen) outside of his size and power, and Fedor's never had an issue with either of those things.  Fedor wins this by however he wants, and I'll go with Fedor Emelianenko by TKO, round 1.


Jake Shields vs. Jason "Mayhem" Miller

Luke Thomas: Part of me feels like Miller's durability and defensive savvy are going to keep him in this fight for the long haul. But that's just it: keep him in the fight. I keep seeing in my head Shields working for passes or keeping his base on Miller as he rolls from mount to give up the back and to the mount again. Offensively he is better on the feet and if Shields gasses late Miller will kill him, but will he have already dropped 3 or 4 rounds? Most likely. Shields by unanimous decision.

Kid Nate: Mayhem is bigger, a slightly better striker and very hard to submit. Shields has a huge wrestling advantage and the discipline to keep his head and keep the fight where he needs it to be -- on the ground, with Mayhem on his back. Shields won't do much to hurt him though and won't be able to get the tap out. If this was a three round fight it would be an easy pick for Shields to win, but holding Mayhem down for five rounds is going to be exhausting and once they're tired, Mayhem will have an edge in the slopfest that ensues. It won't be enough though, Shields by decision.

Brent Brookhouse:  This is a really good fight.  Mayhem is better standing and bigger but his defensive wrestling is a major issue for this fight.  I don't think Shields is as good of a wrestler as many seem to...but Mayhem has always been too willing (or just unable) to end up on the ground.  I'd be shocked if either guy finishes the fight and as such it's really a matter of if Miller is able to stay on his feet for enough of the fight to steal rounds.  I don't see it happening.  Jake Shields by decision.

Michael Rome:  Unfortunately for Mayhem, his takedown defense has never been there, and I see him losing a lopsided decision where he spends most of the time on his back.  A 5 round borefest could kill this show on CBS; I hope that doesn't happen.  Shields via decision.

Chris Nelson: I'm with the general consensus that Shields will grind Mayhem down for the duration of this one, but I'm thinking he can also wear him out and finish him in the championship rounds. Jake Shields via TKO, round four.

Eugene Schelfaut: Did you know grapple could also be a term used to denote a grape and apple hybrid? Funny, and yet interesting. Use this gem against those around you in the fourth when Jake Shields scores a takedown at the beginning of the round that will last him until the end of it. Jake Shields by decision, Round 5.

Nick Thomas: Can Shields submit Miller? I doubt it. Will Shields have the cardio for 5 rounds? We'll find out. I see Shields winning the majority of rounds with takedowns. Shields by decision.

Leland Roling: I love this fight in terms of styles as both Miller and Shields have solid grappling ability. I'd give the edge to Shields as he's positionally a more dominating fighter, but Mayhem should have a slight edge on the feet with his natural middleweight size and reach being the deciding factors. If Mayhem can keep it standing, he could point his way to victory, but I think Shields will ultimately dominate Miller on the floor in a positional battle. Jake Shields via unanimous decision.

Mike Fagan: This will go to a decision most of the time.  Mayhem nullifies Shields grappling (at least he finishing aspect) and he doesn't have any sort of KO power standing up.  I do think Miller's being undervalued, and while I expect Shields to actually win most of the time, I'll go with Jason Miller by decision, anyway.


Gegard Mousasi vs. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou

Luke Thomas: However Mousasi wants it, he takes it. He's physically tough and has the technical skills in any department to overwhelm Sokoudjou. It's just a matter of time. As he stated on the Jordan Breen Show, ground and pound is his favorite part of his game. So, Mousasi by TKO, round 1.

Kid Nate: Poor Sokoudjou, he's a living cautionary tale to young fighters who might be tempted to jump into big money matches too early in their careers. Mousasi is too well-rounded for Sokou by far. Mousasi's freakish reach alone will give Sokou fits. Mousasi by submission in 2.

Brent Brookhouse:  Sokoudjou has a lot of punching power, sure.  We can also pretend that his judo background is relevant.  This is going to be decided on the feet and I can see it being a replay of Soko/Cane in that Mousasi just weathers the early storm, picking out a few spots to land and come the second round he'll pour it on and end it.  Gegard Mousasi by TKO, round 2.

Michael Rome:  Sokoudjou has a much better chance than Brett Rogers, but that ain't saying much.  Mousassi is just on another level everywhere, this should be a fun fight though.  Mousassi via TKO, round 3.

Chris Nelson: Folks are giving Sokoudjou about as much of a chance to beat Mousasi as they did Nogueira, maybe less. That means it's time to pick him. Sokoudjou via TKO, round one.

Eugene Schelfaut: I have not yet found a fight which would allow me to make a move and improve my picking percentage over the group's. I can't steal a W here and neither can Sokoudjou. Mousasi pounds it out on the floor after Sokoudjou gasses out, but it could be before even that, leading to Gegard Mousasi winning by TKO, Round 1.

Nick Thomas:  Mousasi can win this standing or on the ground. Mousasi by TKO.

Leland Roling: Sokoudjou has a puncher's chance to pull off an upset, but Mousasi is easily the better fighter in every aspect of this fight. He's a much more technical striker, better on the floor, and he's surgical with his power striking from top control. He'll punch out Sokoudjou in quick fashion. Gegard Mousasi via TKO, Round 1.

Mike Fagan: Mousasi's gonna roll this chump.  Sokoudjou's a bully fighter, gasses quickly, and doesn't have much of a ground game.  Mousasi's part of the vanguard of MMA 3.0.  Gegard Mousasi by TKO, round 1.


Fabricio Werdum vs. Antonio "Bigfoot" Silva

Luke Thomas: Of the two Werdum is by far the better grappler. Silva is the more well-rounded of the two, but lacks something critical: the ability to withstand punishment in order to keep mixing it up or push the action. He's technical until he's pressured and Werdum often gets very little credit for being highly durable. Yes, Cigano dropped him, but generally speaking Werdum is capable of absorbing tons of damage to pursue the fight. Eventually Silva is going to get worn down and Werdum will pounce. Werdum, by TKO, round 2.

Kid Nate: Silva is a massively powerful physical specimen, but I'm afraid he's the Brett Rogers in this bout, oversized and underskilled. Although he's never quite put his many talents into a package greater than the sum of their parts, Werdum is by far the better grappler and his Muay Thai is decent enough to out score the sluggish Bigfoot. The winner gets to lose to Fedor. Werdum by decision.

Brent Brookhouse:  I remain fairly unsure of Silva's true standing in the division.  This is a guy who came close to losing a decision to Ricco Rodriguez...and I'm talking about "Fat Ricco" not the athletic former champion.  Werdum getting knocked out by Dos Santos isn't really an indication that Silva can get to him.  JDS has really good power but also that was a perfectly timed shot.  I just think Werdum is the better fighter and that he'll pull off the win.  Fabricio Werdum by decision.

Michael Rome:  Strikeforce would be better off if Silva won, they could market a giant against Fedor much better than a jiu-jitsu world champion.  Unfortunately for them, the most likely outcome is Silva gassing, getting taken down, and getting submitted.  Werdum via submission, round 2.

Chris Nelson: I'm so into this fight - only Fedor-Rogers and Sengoku's pair of main events top it for me in this packed weekend. Werdum should take this, but he should've taken the Cigano fight too. Methinks Bigfoot catches him early. Antonio Silva via TKO, round one.

Eugene Schelfaut: After I see Werdum take a few to the jaw and not explode I'll feel better. There is a tier of better feeling on top of that if Werdum can trip this to the ground. Fabricio Werdum by decision.

Nick Thomas: What a great fight here. I don't think Werdum will threaten Silva on the ground. With that it's Silva by TKO.

Leland Roling: This is a tough fight to pick as both Werdum and Silva have distinct advantages in their skill-sets. Werdum will be the better grappler while Silva should have more power in the striking department. Werdum hasn't historically shown a weakness in being knocked out as some fans seem to believe due to his showing against Dos Santos, and he should be the more dominant fighter on the ground. For that reason, I'll take Werdum. Fabricio Werdum via unanimous decision.

Mike Fagan: When this is your lead-in fight, you know you have a good card lined up.  By far the hardest fight to pick on the main card, but I think Werdum's gonna be a too athletic for Silva if he comes in to the fight in shape.  Fabricio Werdum by submisison, round 3.

 

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Zach Arnold points out the fact that Lesnar walked away from the WWE, wrestling in Japan, the NFL and asks the question is the UFC going to be the next bride of Lesnar left jilted at the altar?

There are a lot who aren't fans who are scared that Lesnar isn't going to be fighting. There's good reason for these fans to worry about Lesnar and his physical state. However, it's his mental state that should worry everyone much more so in the long run.

Lesnar is known for being successful at one thing and then decided to quit and move on. He gets bored, he gets disinterested, and he always needs a new challenge.

...

He always burns a bridge and he doesn't care because he knows that there will always be another sugar daddy waiting for him to pay him a lot of money to do whatever tickles his fancy at that moment in time.

Which is why the news of Lesnar taking significant time off should make people in UFC very nervous. The reported reason for Lesnar's prolonged absence is that he is suffering not from the swine flu but from mono and that he can't train. The illness will keep Lesnar on the sidelines for at least a month before he can resume training. There are already doubts about Lesnar as UFC champion and he only has 5 professional fights under his belt. He's UFC's biggest star (Georges St. Pierre is #2) and the promotion can't afford to lose him.

That's what happens when you put all of your eggs into his basket. He sells millions of PPV buys and is a huge name. He will always have a fan base with him no matter where he goes, which is why Brock Lesnar is doubly dangerous for any promoter to book long-term. Even when he has a legitimate reason for not showing up (like an illness), it always creeps up in the back of your head about whether or not he has any loyalty left to you or is interested in continuing doing what he is doing at the current time.

I've asked before whether or not Brock Lesnar can handle the media heat that comes with being the UFC heavyweight champion and biggest star. Nothing has happened to alleviate my concerns:

Lesnar reminds me of no one so much as Axl Rose of Guns N Roses. Those of you old enough to remember Axl's hey dey will recall that the mercurial star constantly had blowups with reporters, fans, other musicians and his bandmates.

That sort of intensity helped make Rose one of the most compelling figures in pop culture for about five years, but it also dramatically shortened his career by sending him into a decade long self-imposed seclusion.

I hope Lesnar can learn to take some deep breaths because if he wins this fight, the media glare is only going to become more relentless.

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