UFC 106: November 21, 2009
Mandalay Bay Events Center
Las Vegas, Nevada

Main card:
Forrest Griffin vs. Tito Ortiz

Luke Thomas: I just have no idea what to expect from Ortiz. I also expect Griffin to show the same weakness in his takedown defense that has come to be a liability he just can't shed, but I expect him to stuff Oritz's shots enough to do damage standing. Griffin by decision.

Kid Nate: Tito is a huge X factor here. Has the back surgery really had a dramatic impact? How rusty will he be? In their first fight, Tito crushed Forrest for one round, edged him in the second and faded in the third. I'm going to flip a coin and pick Tito Ortiz by decision.

Brent Brookhouse:  This is just such a hard fight to come back from a layoff and surgery to.  I probably would pick any dangerous striker over Griffin, but Tito isn't that.  Maybe Tito shocks and is explosive in his wrestling and just pounds on Griffin from the top position, but Forrest has very overlooked BJJ should he end up on bottom.  I just don't see too many risks being there for Forrest while I do for Tito.  Forrest Griffin by one sided decision.

Michael Rome:  I think the surgery matters, but not the way everyone else does.  I think Ortiz will be stilted and slow.  Even if it makes him better, I think Forrest is the better fighter.  Have we all forgot how far Forrest has come since their first fight just because he got his clock cleaned by Anderson Silva?  Forrest Griffin via TKO, round 2.

Mike Fagan: I think this fight looks a lot like their first one, except more of the last part of it.  I'm not sure Tito is as "done" as I've seen some people suggest, but three more years on a bad back (even on a light fight schedule) is no good.  And while both guys are largely the same fighters are they were at UFC 59, Forrest has matured and refined his game in the time.  Forrest Griffin by decision.

Chris Nelson: I'd argue that this is almost an impossible fight to pick, given the laundry list of unknowns and intangibles. I see a determined Tito Ortiz doing everything in his power to get the "W" here, even grinding something out on the floor. Ortiz via decision.

Eugene Schelfaut: I don't know Tito Ortiz' current performance level given the surgery and the time spent out of the cage. And that is all I need to not know to pick Forrest Griffin by TKO, Round 3.

Leland Roling: Tito Ortiz's back is the major question here. Was his back actually hurt that badly in his last few fights? Did it really affect him that much? Griffin's striking should be enough to win him a decision if Ortiz can't take down Griffin, but I'm going to bank on Ortiz's training with Roach combined with a healthy back to push him through to victory here. Tito Ortiz via decision.

Nick Thomas: Ortiz said he was 60% in the last fight. If that's true... Ortiz should take this. But we have to factor in the ring rust. But that can be countered by Griffin just getting married. It'll be a close fight, but I going with Tito by decision.


Josh Koscheck vs. Anthony Johnson

Luke Thomas: I think eventually Koscheck is going to get taken to the floor, but I'm betting over the long run Johnson can find a way to score enough points/land a KO bomb while defending the takedown enough. Johnson by TKO, round 2.

Kid Nate: These two have trained together in the past and word is that Koscheck had his way with Johnson. I hate relying on Josh Koscheck to fight smart, but he's got to know that Johnson is too formidable on the feet to stand and trade with. Koscheck by decision.

Brent Brookhouse: If...IF Josh fights smart and tries to turn this into a drawn out wrestling match I think he can win a decision.  I don't fully trust Johnson's gas tank at his size in a really physical fight.  But despite what he says Josh is in love with his striking and you just do not want to strike with Anthony Johnson.  AJ will catch Josh early and that will be that.  Anthony Johnson by KO, round 1.

Michael Rome:  The safe bet is Kos, but I'm going with a changing of the guard.  I think Kos wants to trade, and he can win standing, but the odds are against him.  Johnson just has to land once, and I think he will.  Anthony Johnson via KO, round 1.

Mike Fagan: I see this looking a lot like Alves/Kos, though Johnson has a couple more question marks than Thiago.  And while I love superheel Josh Koscheck, Anthony Johnson makes my pants feel funny when I watch him in the cage.  Anthony Johnson by KO, round 2.

Chris Nelson: Koscheck won't be brazen enough to trade with Johnson for too long, but I don't think it'll matter. Johnson's proving too much for almost anyone to handle at 170. Johnson via TKO, round one.

Eugene Schelfaut: Josh Koscheck will not go for the takedown in this fight, I think. Anthony Johnson by TKO, Round 1.

Leland Roling: If Koscheck tries to trade, he'll get busted. But if he decides that this fight is a wrestler's match in which he can control Johnson on the floor, he'll wear Johnson down quickly and gas him out. Josh Koscheck via decision.

Nick Thomas: Will Koscheck go for the takedown? I sure hope so. But he won't. Because of that I'm going with Johnson by TKO.


Amir Sadollah vs. Phil Baroni

Luke Thomas: As underwhelming as Sadollah has been, he's not the one who went from beating Amar Suloev to losing handily to Joe Riggs. Amir Sadollah by submission.

Kid Nate: It's almost as if the UFC re-signed Phil Baroni strictly to give Amir Sadollah a gimme fight. Amir should survive the early blitz and go on to tap out a gassed NYBA. Sadollah by submission.

Brent Brookhouse: Much as dislike Baroni the fact stands that Amir showed some big ol' holes in his striking game against Hendricks.  I also don't know that he has the wrestling to force the fight to the ground.  But, at the same time Baroni has legendarily bad cardio and looks like death from what people who have seen him have been saying as well as in any video interview shows.  So it comes down to this in my mind: can Baroni catch Amir in the first couple minutes of the fight or does Amir take him to the deep waters of the two and a half minute mark?  Amir by submission, round 2.

Michael Rome:  Baroni is dangerous for 2 minutes, but his power is overstated these days.  Amir is the more skilled fighter, and will run away with this in the second and third.  Amir via submission, round 3.

Mike Fagan: For as much as I hate Mike Swick for no reason, I love Phil Baroni for even less.  And I'm not particularly sold on a guy with two professional fights on his record.  Early stoppage or not, Johny Hendricks was lighting him up on his feet.  Plus, how does Sadollah drag Baroni to the ground?   Phil Baroni by TKO, round 3.

Chris Nelson: Can't say I understand the matchmaking here at all. Is the UFC trying to bury one of their most recent Ultimate Fighter(rrrr)s? Because, aside from the cardio issues which everyone's mentioned, I don't know how Baroni loses this fight. Baroni via TKO, round one.

Eugene Schelfaut: I hate this fight in that it makes me think of Phil Baroni as the potential victor. However, against that, I'll take as my pick Sadollah, who will be submitting a gassed Baroni early in the 1st. Amir Sadollah by armbar, Round 1.

Leland Roling: The argument that Phil Baroni has only two minutes of conditioning and that he'll gas on his way to the cage has long been over. His fight with Riggs... he displayed some slightly improved cardio by lasting through the first round, and he's still a formidable force in punching your face in within the first few minutes. Sadollah will have to weather the storm, but I'm taking Phil Baroni purely based on my own fandom. THE BEST EVA!! Phil Baroni via TKO, Round 1.

Nick Thomas: Baroni is back in the UFC but has anything has changed? I'm sure Sadollah plans to test Baroni's gas tank in the later rounds so Baroni will have to end it early. Baroni by TKO.


Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Luis Cane

Luke Thomas: Unless Cane makes a positional error, this is his fight to lose. I think Lil' Nog's boxing is hugely overrated and Cane's aggressive but thoughtfully tactical approach to fights will be the difference. Cane by decision.

Kid Nate: This could be an epic war, pitting the up and coming Cane against the old PRIDE warrior Little Nog. Nogueira's boxing should capitalize on Cane's mistakes standing and he'll own Cane on the ground. Nogueira by submission.

Brent Brookhouse: Wow, this is a hard fight to call.  I like Cane's style but I think he fits well into the "guys Nogueira eats alive" category.  Antonio Rogerio Nogueira by decision.

Michael Rome:  Real interesting fight.  Cane has a great chin and slick muay thai, but he has terrible head movement and tends to get hit a lot.  So far he's gotten away with it, will he be able to eat Nogueira's straight lefts with no issues?  I think Nog brings too much to the table.  Nogueira via decision.

Mike Fagan: As others have said, this is an awesome fight.  Really solid matchmaking, though Cane's camp has come out and said they don't really want to fight someone Luis looks up to.  And it's gonna be a tough fight for them.  Nogueira's shown what he can do to more dynamic and athletic Muay Thai guys, and Cane is way more plodding that "Shogun" Rua.  I don't expect this to hit the floor, but if it does, that should be Nogueira's domain.  Antonio Rogerio Nogueira by decision.

Chris Nelson: Joe Silva, forcing the Brasileiros to pick sides yet again - and with such a tough fight to call, too. Haven't looked at betting lines, but I'd guess Nogueira's coming in a slight favorite. I think "Banha" pulls the upset, with youth and aggression overcoming experience and an (almost always) iron jaw. Cane via decision.

Eugene Schelfaut: I'm ready to be convinced, as I cannot make a choice. I'll go with Antonio Rogerio Nogueira via decision split.

Leland Roling: Fans need to go back and watch Cane vs. Sokoudjou and Cane vs. Cantwell. There are some glaring problems that Cane needs to correct because he won't be able to gut out exchanges that aren't there against a in-and-out boxer like Rogerio. Rogerio will add to the laundry list of Ed Soares fighters at the top. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira via decision.

Nick Thomas: Such a great fight here. Nogueira should have the better stand up but Cane has the UFC experience. If we factor in Nog's debut jitters... I'm going with Cane by decision.


Paulo Thiago vs. Jacob Volkmann

Luke Thomas: I take seriously the wrestling ability of Volkmann and worry he might get himself in trouble going head to head with Thiago, but I suspect he can get the job done. Volkmann by decision.

Kid Nate: This is Thiago's big chance to show what he can do against someone who is NOT a top ten welterweight. Volkmann is coming in surrounded by a cloud of hype about his wrestling abilities, but IMO if Thiago can almost catch Jon Fitch, he can tap Volkmann. Thiago by submission.

Brent Brookhouse: After the Fitch fight I'm sold on Thiago being legitimately dangerous.  Paulo Thiago by submission, round 2.

Michael Rome:  Volkmann is talented on the ground, unfortunately for him he's going against someone better on the ground.  Thiago via submission, round 2.

Mike Fagan: A year ago, Paulo Thiago was the nobody that came out of nowhere to KO Josh Koscheck.  Now, Jacob Volkmann is that same guy.  It's always hard to pick a fight when both guys have little experience against top competition.  With that in mind, I go with the guy who's been here before.  Paulo Thiago by decision.

Chris Nelson: Hard one to call, having never seen Volkmann fight, but the BJJ credentials of these two tells me this could turn into a boxing match. I'll take a flyer on the rangier Thiago handing "Christmas" his first loss. Thiago via TKO, round two.

Eugene Schelfaut: Christmas will be coming only once this year. Paulo Thiago via submission, Round 1.

Leland Roling: I have to switch my stance once again. After reviewing some footage, Volkmann's wrestling is very strong, but he also has multiple ways in which he can gain takedowns and punish his opponents. I don't think he'll be able to finish Thiago, but I think he can control him and wear him out on his way to a decision victory. Jacob Volkmann via decision.

Nick Thomas: I am buying into the hype about Volkmann. Like Rosholt, I think Volkmann can grind out a win as long as he doesn't get caught. Volkmann by decision.

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Chad Dukes: "Anderson Silva has expressed interest in fighting you, and that's a guy that's looking for a big payday.  Clearly you pull in pay-per-view numbers, people pay to watch you fight.  There's a guy like that that wants to fight you, you've seen the strengths he has, you see how tough he is for people to try to fight. 

Tito Ortiz: "Well... it's funny that Anderson Silva wants to fight me. I guess you know you're famous when a world champion can't get the Pay-Per-View buys and wants to fight someone who gets him more Pay-Per-View buys.  That says a lot about my name, and I've got to thank him for calling me out, that's awesome."

Tito Ortiz appearing on the Chad Dukes Show on 106.7 The Fan in Washington, D.C.

Listen to the Mp3

Jokes on everyone else.  I had Lifefail by Bacterial Infection, round 1 at +150000. 

Since you poor schmucks didn't hit the sweet line, I'll let you in on the other money making opportunities for this Saturday at UFC 106.

I liked this fight as a co-main with Lesnar/Carwin, but I think it's pretty bland as a standalone headliner.  The redemption angle for Forrest draws interest, but the fight itself shouldn't stray too far from the first.  And when you remove the name's involved, their first encounter wasn't particularly impressive.

Nothing and everything has changed since UFC 59.  Following a hiccup with Keith Jardine, Griffin defeated "Shogun" Rua and Quinton "Rampage" Jackson to briefly stand atop the 205 pound division before Rashad Evans derailed his success.  The superfight with Anderson Silva that followed ended with Forrest living up to his name.

Ortiz went on to beat up Ken Shamrock not once, but twice before Chuck Liddell obliterated him for a second time.  He later drew Rashad Evans in a dreadful fight, followed by getting the Mexican beaten out of him by Lyoto Machida at UFC 84.  Since then, Ortiz has been busy teasing Strikeforce, having trouble speaking for Affliction, and telling panhandlers to get a job (sir).

Their style and ability have gone nearly unchanged.  Forrest has refined his brawling style to a more sophisticated barrage of high-volume strikes.  Besides that, neither guy has made significant strides since 2005.  Ortiz and Griffin still don't have KO power because they seem unable to throw from their core.  Ortiz will still try to hit more doubles than Albert Pujols.  And with their cardio and workrate, we should expect a pretty high-paced 205 bout.

The difference in 2009 is that both guys are three-plus years older.  That means three more years of strain on Ortiz's notoriously bad back.  It means Forrest has three more years of experience, confidence, and time working with Xtreme Couture.  In MMA, three years makes a world of difference.

If you hopped on Griffin when the line opened.  Congratulations, you've been paying attention.  The line peaked at Griffin -180 before settling at the current price.  I like Griffin a lot under -150 and up to just under -200.  Ortiz will have to repeat the first fight to win this one, and while I think there's a significant chance that happens, it's much less likely in 2009.

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The Heavy.com crew caught up with Tito Ortiz who discussed his strategy heading into the fight with Forrest Griffin this Saturday.  Here's the video of that interview:

Let’s see if Forrest can take the pounding.  Let’s see if he can defend the shot when he kicks. Because every time he kicks he’s going to get taken down. A lot of fighters don’t take advantage of that. When they see Forrest kick they try to check all the kicks. To hell with that. I’m putting him on his back and it’s back to the old Tito Ortiz man. I might ground and pound. It’s lethal. The first round it will be lethal. If he survives, the second round will be the same thing. If he lasts through that, the third round will be the same thing. They’ll be carrying him out on a stretcher.

Brock Lesnar's friend and BJJ trainer talks to TMZ.com:

"Brock is getting better and that is the most important thing ... He will be fine and be fighting again within 6 months."

"I can just say that the heavyweights can stop laughing and get ready to start crying because the champion will be back soon."

There is still no official word from the UFC or Brock Lesnar on his return.

Main Bouts:
Forrest Griffin (16-6) vs. Tito Ortiz (15-6-1)
Josh Koscheck (13-4) vs. Anthony Johnson (8-2)
Paulo Thiago (11-1) vs. Jacob Volkmann (9-0)
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (17-3) vs. Luis Cane (10-1)
Amir Sadollah (1-1) vs. Phil Baroni (13-11)

On Spike:
Marcus Davis (16-5) vs. Ben Saunders (7-1-2)
Jake Rosholt (6-1) vs. Kendall Grove (10-6)

Preliminary Bouts:
Brock Larson (29-3) vs. Brian Foster (12-4)
Caol Uno (25-12-4) vs. Fabricio Camoes (10-4)
George Sotiropoulos (12-2) vs. Jason Dent (28-9)

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Martin McNeil for ESPN.com

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Last weekend's UFC 105 main event light heavyweight match-up between Randy "The Natural" Couture and Brandon "The Truth" Vera cemented itself as one of the tougher bouts to score from a judge's point of view during this year's long list of close decisions. Lyoto Machida vs. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua should be thrown in the mix as well as a recent bout that also spawned a lot of debate among fans, but the Couture vs. Vera decision focuses solely on a subject within the context of MMA's judging criteria that has hidden from criticism.

While most of the debates come down to certain exchanges landing and the value of specific strikes in opposition to other methods of scoring (i.e. the value of leg kicks versus jabs, takedowns vs. escapes), the hierarchy of the criteria used in judging a fight was the central issue at UFC 105. Per a discussion on the Sherdog forums back in 2007 regarding judging criteria, someone posted the criteria for judging MMA bouts when Marc Ratner was the head of the NSAC. We also had the discussion here. The root of the issue comes in the Criteria Evaluation:

If 90% of a round is grounded with one fighter on top, then:

   - Effective Grappling is weighted first, with Clean Striking weighted next. If Clean Strikes scored in the round, the Judge shall factor it in. Clean Striking can outweigh Effective grappling while the fighters are grounded. Octagon Control is next (Pace, Place, & Position)

The same rational holds true if 90% of the round were standing:

   - Clean Striking would be weighed first, Clean Grappling second, then Octagon Control. Which fighter created situations that led to effective strikes.

If a round was 50/50, then:

   - Clean Striking and Effective Grappling are weighed more equally with Octagon Control being weighed next.

Now, keep in mind -- these were the rules under Ratner's reign at the NSAC and these could have been changed since those days, but I think these make the case against what some fans have argued over the past week. This obviously hints that there is a hierarchy when it comes to Striking, Grappling, Effective Grappling, and Octagon Control. Striking and Grappling receive a lot of weight in a battle that's mostly standing and grappling as equals, but when entire rounds shift to the ground, the criteria is weighted to specific portions of the criteria.

This is exactly how the criteria should work, and it shocks me that we've seen arguments that some of Vera's blows in the first round would suddenly nullify anything Couture did in terms of Effective Grappling and Octagon Control. The only real problem with my view is that technically... Couture stood for much of those clinching exchanges. His style, however, was basically a grounded battle against the fence in the clinch.

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More bad news for UFC 109. The anticipated middleweight title fight between Anderson Silva and Vitor Belfort seems to be receding off into the distance. Fighters Only translates from Portal das Lutas:

Anderson Silva says his recovery from elbow surgery has not gone as expected, and that there is still enough pain to stop him practicing simple jiu jitsu positions.

"I went to the doctor who takes care of me in Brazil on Monday. I had surgery in the United States but there is communication between the two medical teams. To sum it up, some movements aren't at the expected stage [of recovery]," he revealed to Portal das Lutas.

...

The news will not thrill UFC bosses, who are faced with a mounting injury list of high profile stars. Silva was wanted for a headlined fight with Vitor Belfort in February but unless he is back to full training by next month that will be unlikely.