Gilbert Melendez -400 vs. Jorge Masvidal +300

K.J. Noons -190 vs. Billy Evangelista +155

Images via Strikeforce

SBN coverage of Strikeforce: Melendez vs. Masvidal

ONE FC's debut event is this weekend, and with the absence of notable live Japanese MMA events being broadcast, this card would be something that the BE Night Crew could look forward to... Although it will start at around 7am ET, so we might have to change it to the BE Breakfast Crew, and unless you're Matt Roth, you're probably going to have to settle on getting drunk with pancakes and maple syrup instead.

Anyway, getting back to the point, here are the betting odds that have just been released for the main card:

A Sol Kwon (+290) vs. Eduard Folayang (-350)

Phil Baroni (+120) vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida (-125)

Mitch Chilson (-110) vs. Eric Kelly (-120)

Gregor Gracie (-750) vs. Seok Mo Kim (+450)

Andy Wang (+300) vs. Zorobabel Moreira (-500)

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After noticing that no underdog with longer odds than +135 (Constantinos Philippou) pulled off a win at UFC 133, it got me wondering how underdog wins have broken down in the UFC lately. I went back over every 2011 fight and used the fighter's best available odds at belltime. Here is how the data breaks down:

There were nine fights that were "pick 'em" fights with closer than +115 odds which I did not count.

The first thing that jumped out to me was seeing that underdogs under +150 actually have a winning record to this point in the year. There is a huge drop from +150 to +199, which is surprising given that coming in I assumed we'd see a pretty steady decline as odds got longer.

The five men to win at over +300 were Rani Yahya (+300 vs. Mike Brown), Dennis Siver (+354 vs. George Sotiropoulos), George Roop (+400 vs. Josh Grispi), Charlie Brenneman (+425 vs. Rick Story) and Tito Ortiz (+525 vs. Ryan Bader).

Clearly, what I'm saying is that you should run out and lay some money on Donald Cerrone (+115) and Ed Herman (+123) for tonight's UFC on Versus 5 card but stay away from Ben Henderson at +150.

You know what's more fun than watching Fedor Emelianenko fight? Watching him fight when you have some monetary interest in it. So, rub those eyes open, work on that hangover, and let's throw some money around.

Fedor Emelianenko -250 vs. Dan Henderson

I'm baffled that this line still exists. This time last year, no one gave Fabricio Werdum a chance in hell of toppling Fedor Emelianenko, and people started to wonder whether Dan Henderson's time as an elite fighter had passed after a meek decision loss to Jake Shields. Had this fight taken place then, the Russian might have pushed a four-digit betting line. Yet, here we are, with the oddsmakers handing you a break-even rate just under 71.5% on Emelianenko. I'm all over this like M-1 Global on an opportunity to renegotiate.

Fedor/Hendo does not complete 2 rounds +160 (Bodog) and Over 2.5 rounds +135/Goes to a decision +140 (5Dimes)

We're going to use these props as a refresher on Expected Value (EV).

The sample size isn't huge, but, for our purposes, heavyweight fights break down with 65% finished before the the start of round 3, 26% going to decision, and the remaining 9% ending during the last round. Now, those numbers probably aren't reflective of the probabilities for this fight in particular, but it's fair to say they're in the ballpark.

For simplicity's sake, let's put a $100 bet on the fight not completing two rounds and the fight going to a decision. If the fight ends in round one or two, we make $60. If it goes to a decision, we win $40. If it ends in the third round, we lose $200. Now, intuitively, that looks like a bad bet. But we also have to factor in that the probabilities are weighted. Here's the math:

EV = ($60 * .65) + ($40 * .26) + (-$200 * .09)

Finish the equation, and you have an expected value of $31.40, and that's makes it a good bet for us. We continue to see positive EV if we lower a finish within two rounds to 53% and hand the balance over to a third-round finish (21%, an absurdly high number).

Miesha Tate by decision +325 over Marloes Coenen (5Dimes)

I picked Coenen to win the fight, and I do think she's the rightful favorite (though most books have it as a virtual pick 'em). However, if you like Tate (or if you like money), I really like this prop over at 5Dimes. You can find the same prop at Bodog or Bookmaker, but they're hanging +190 and +165, respectively. That's a break-even difference of over 10%.

Paul Daley +270 inside distance (Bodog) and Tyron Woodley +150 by decision (Bodog)

Daley has one decision victory in the last five years. Woodley is taking a huge leap in competition, but his biggest strength (wrestling) plays well into his opponent's biggest weakness (takedown defense). If I were taking just one of these bets, I would grab the Daley line, but I like them both as a sort of prop-arb. The biggest threat to blow it up is Woodley subbing Daley, but I have enough confidence in Daley's submission avoidance to take both here.

SBN coverage of Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Henderson

Sure we're a little past the halfway point of the year, but the second half of 2011 is going to provide us a plethora of big fights, and a lot of them already have had their betting lines released. I thought it might be worth running down a few of the biggest ones. We'll start with Strikeforce this Saturday and wind our way all the down to UFC 139 in November. Remember that not every huge fight has had the line drop yet (ie. Jose Aldo vs. Kenny Florian).

All odds obtained from www.bmaker.ag

July

Fedor Emelianenko (-225) vs. Dan Henderson (+185), Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Henderson
Marloes Coenen (-125) vs. Miesha Tate (-105), Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Henderson

August

Rashad Evans (-420) vs. Tito Ortiz (+320), UFC 133
Chris Lytle (-125) vs. Dan Hardy (-105), UFC on Versus 5
Jim Miller (-150) vs. Ben Henderson (+120), UFC on Versus 5
Anderson Silva (-415) vs. Yushin Okami (+315), UFC 134
Mauricio Rua (-215) vs. Forrest Griffin (+175), UFC 134

September

Ronaldo Souza (-345) vs. Luke Rockhold (+275), Strikeforce: HWGP Semi-Finals
Josh Barnett (-255) vs. Sergei Kharitonov (+205), Strikeforce: HWGP Semi-Finals
Jon Jones (-435) vs. Quinton Jackson (+335), UFC 135
Diego Sanchez (-215) vs. Matt Hughes (+175), UFC 135

October

Frankie Edgar (-155) vs. Gray Maynard (+125), UFC 136
Chael Sonnen (-255) vs. Brian Stann (+205), UFC 136
Georges St. Pierre (-370) vs. Nick Diaz (+300), UFC 137

November

Cain Velasquez (-142) vs. Junior dos Santos (+112), UFC 139

The betting lines for UFC on Versus 4 are out, and there looks to be some juicy stuff available depending on your perspective. The main card odds have been out for a little while now, but the undercard odds were just released today. A lot of close fights odds-wise makes this card particularly appealing if you're interested in wagering on it. In the main event, Nate Marquardt opened as a solid -180 favorite but the line has shifted in a big way, with Nate being offered at even odds now and Rick Story now being the favorite in the -130 range. In the co-main event, Cheick Kongo and Pat Barry opened up at close to even odds, but Kongo is now a healthy favorite due to a big shift in lines.

Jun 26th, live on Versus from Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania:
Main card:
Nate Marquardt (31-10) EVEN vs. Rick Story (13-3) -130

Cheick Kongo -215 (15-6) vs. Pat Barry (6-2) +175

Matt Mitrione (4-0) -255 vs. Christian Morecraft (7-1) +205

Matt Brown (11-10) -+210 vs. John Howard (14-6) -260

Preliminary card:
Tyson Griffin (14-5) -225 vs. Manny Gamburyan (11-5) +185

Joe Lauzon (19-6) -255 vs. Curt Warburton (7-2) +205

Daniel Roberts (12-2) EVEN vs. Rich Attonito (9-4) -130

Joe Stevenson (31-13) -205 vs. Javier Vazquez (15-5) +165

Michael Johnson (8-5) -400 vs. Edward Faaloloto (2-1) +300

Matt Grice (13-3) +145 vs. Ricardo Lamas (9-2) -175

 Nik Lentz (23-3-2) +130 vs. Charles Oliveira (14-1) -160