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With all the "how marketable is Fedor?" talk it starts to feel like we're getting ready for a TV show and not a fight.  When we do talk about the fight it all revolves around the supposed gaps in Fedor's striking technique and Rogers' need to exploit them.  Over the past day I've been going over footage of Fedor's fights and one thing is very clear when it comes to the striking aspect of his game...it's all about timing.

In almost every one of Fedor's fights we see him set up, try to establish the distance he wants, and use small scale footwork to retain said distance until he is ready to throw a lunging hook.  Fedor uses that lunging hook in almost every fight and it becomes a Choose Your Own Adventure of pain for the opponent:

If you would like to absorb a flurry of punishing blows, please cover up and move directly backward.

If you would like to go to the ground and face brutal ground and pound or be submitted, please clinch up.

Let's take a look at several of his fights and try to learn where, if anywhere, he can be beat standing.

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According to Sensei Sportv’s blog, Nogueira’s manager confirmed that the Brazilian, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (32-5-1 MMA, 3-1 UFC) set for UFC 108 will face the undefeated heavyweight Cain Velasquez (7-0 MMA, 5-0 UFC) at UFC 108, which takes place at January 2.

Rumored card so far: 
- Brock Lesnar vs. Shane Carwin
- Cain Velasquez vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
- Rashad Evans vs. Thiago Silva
- Junior Dos Santos vs. Gabriel Gonzaga
- Carlos Condit vs. Paul Daley
- Tyson Griffin vs. Jim Miller
- Martin Kampmann vs. Rory Markham
- Joe Lauzon vs. Sam Stout
- Dan Lauzon vs. Cole Miller
- Ryan Jensen vs. Mark Munoz
- Jake Ellenberger vs. Mike Pyle

HT: tatame.com

UPDATE (by Kid Nate): Don't count your chickens, Heavy.com reports:

Heavy.com contacted sources close to Velasquez, who refute the story as "pure speculation."

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Kevin Iole talks to several of the top trainers in MMA and gets some ideas:

• "In my opinion, from observing him, his weakness is his standup. He’s very, very effective in how he does it, but on a technical level, you can definitely outstrike Fedor. You have to remain calm and I see that as an area where Fedor himself is super, super strong.

  "But as a striker, he’s not technically correct, not the way boxers or pro kick boxers would be. He’s an extremely hard puncher, though, and he’s so explosive. Without a doubt, he’s the most explosive heavyweight out there."
  Javier Mendez of the American Kickboxing Academy

• Emelianenko’s biggest weakness might be something he can’t control: His size. Emelianenko is 6-feet tall and weighs around 230. Rogers is 6-foot-5 and will come in around the heavyweight division’s 265-pound limit.
  Greg Nelson of the Minnesota Martial Arts Academy
• Rogers might be best simply rushing Emelianenko at the start of the fight.
  "When you fight him, obviously, you have to take what your guy does best and in Brett’s case, that’s his standup. Brett’s a strong guy and hits extremely hard. If he catches Fedor, he could do something, but Fedor is such a good counter puncher and he throws from such weird angles you don’t normally see that it creates a lot of issues."
  Duke Roufus
• "The guy is a monster, from what I’ve seen, but Andrei showed you can have success against him if you’re very technical with your boxing."
  Greg Jackson
• "And all the pressure is on Fedor here. Brett can’t be shaken in the mental game. He shouldn’t worry about fighting the legend of Fedor but should just focus on fighting Fedor the man. Arlovski showed it can be done. Every human, including someone as great as Fedor, is beatable. Fedor’s not getting younger and the pressure on him is just building and building. At some point, he’s going to lose. Someone will do it and Brett’s got to be thinking he’s the guy because he has the power and he has the opportunity."
  Mark DellaGrotte of the Sidyongtong Muay Thai and Mixed Martial Arts Academy

Before we all tear into these comments, bear in mind that all of these guys heaped effusive praise on Fedor and his abilities and I didn't repost all of that stuff. Also Fedor is human. The meme that is being pushed by Frank Shamrock and others that "Fedor has no weaknesses" is just bull. We've seen Fedor rocked by punches by Kazuyuki Fujita at PRIDE 26. We've seen Kevin Randleman suplex him on his head. Sure he recovered with other-worldy aplomb and quickly won both fights, but there is some reason to believe he is merely human after all.

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November looks to be a fantastic month for fight fans with a number of major promotions stepping forward to put on a few top notch cards that will appeal to casual fans and hardcore fans alike. This weekend begins the torrid month of action with Strikeforce holding Strikeforce Challengers: Gurgel vs. Evangelista on Friday night, World Victory Road promoting Sengoku XI on Saturday morning, and the weekend's action ending in spectacular fashion with Strikeforce's CBS card featuring a heavyweight tilt between Fedor Emelianenko and Brett Rogers. Be sure to participate in the FightMetric/BloodyElbow.com Tournament Pick 'Em game to maximize your enjoyment of all the great action this month.

World Victory Road's Sengoku XI is the first event in a long list of previews this month that we'll cover. The card will take place on Saturday morning at 2 AM EST airing LIVE on HDNet from Ryogoku Kokugikan in Tokyo, Japan. As we've normally seen from World Victory Road in the past , the event features some solid matchmaking with a featherweight tilt between Hatsu Hioki and Michihiro Omigawa, a middleweight war between Mamed Khalidov and Jorge Santiago, and a lightweight showdown between former champion Satoru Kitaoka and Bellator veteran Jorge Masvidal.

In main event action, top Japanese featherweight Hatsu Hioki (20-3-2) will battle Sengoku Featherweight Grand Prix runner-up Michihiro Omigawa (7-8-1) in a bout that should have taken place in the Sengoku Featherweight Grand Prix final. Unfortunately, Hioki had sustained injuries during his battle with Masanori Kanehara in the Grand Prix's semifinals, thus being unable to continue. Kanehara was allowed to continue and upset Omigawa in the Grand Prix final. Oddly enough, Omigawa was an underdog throughout the tournament bracket, defeating both LC Davis and Nam Phan in impressive fashion to advance.

This will once again be an uphill battle for Michihiro Omigawa as he'll be taking on a very lengthy grappler in Hatsu Hioki. Hioki's past troubles usually came from poor gameplans and the propensity to be sucked into slugfests, but Hioki seems to be a much more aware fighter these days as he's easily been able to outgrapple his opponents on the ground on the way to victory. The only real problem for Hioki is that he lacks the power to finish his opponents if he can't find a means to a submission. Kanehara was a perfect example of that, and it could become a blueprint for Omigawa to upset the giant.

Omigawa will need to keep this fight standing and connect combinations to put Hioki into any kind of danger. The ground will be Hioki's world, and his lengthy frame only makes it a tougher prospect for opponents. While Omigawa has shown deceptive power as he's used the weight cut to featherweight to his advantage, Hioki's grappling acumen should prevail over power in this showdown.

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Photo via M-1 Global

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Ben Fowlkes breaks down the real problem with selling Fedor in an MMA Fanhouse round table:

Naturally fans want to see fighters who they identify with, but the thing that's standing between Fedor and star status isn't nationality or even language. The real barrier is Fedor himself. He really doesn't want to be a star. It doesn't mean anything to him. That's why he does the bare minimum in terms of press and appearances. That's why he hasn't made it a priority to become a fluent speaker of English. He's fine with his celebrity status just the way it is, which is actually very refreshing, if not downright unheard of.

It's interesting to watch the various attempts at marketing Fedor to an American audience. There's this tendency to try and make his reclusiveness into an asset rather than a hindrance. They play up the mystery around him, asking 'Do you know who I am?' or sometimes just promising 'Fedor will return.' But if you're an American who is at all inclined toward MMA or combat sports in general, you've probably at least heard of Fedor by now. The only people who have no idea who the guy is either don't care about watching two grown men fight each other or don't have much access to media in general.

If Fedor wanted to be a huge star in the U.S., he would be. He would have signed with the UFC and he'd be on T-shirts in every mall in America by now. But if he doesn't care about that - and he very clearly doesn't - I don't see why we should.

The Chicago Sun Times has more on this aspect of Fedor:

Nor does he act like the stereotypical modern athlete.

''He is this humble guy. Very religious, doesn't drink, doesn't party. He has this great attitude about him,'' Coker said. ''He doesn't have this overbearing, cocky, egotistical attitude that some of the other fighters have that think they're the man --when really Fedor is the man. You'd never think he's a fighter until the bell rings.''

...

Most fighters dream of an opportunity to compete for the sport's biggest organization, but Emelianenko is certainly not the typical fighter.

He seems not to care if you know his name, if he achieves commercial success, or if he achieves American superstardom.

''I don't think about that because I'm preparing for my fights. I want to show interesting and beautiful fights so that the audience loves the fights.''

It's also worth noting that 1/3 of the Sun-Times piece is devoted to the bidding war between the UFC and Strikeforce over Fedor's services. When Dana White made a super-aggressive, public quest to sign Fedor and then turned it into a feud when he failed, he added something that had been missing from the Fedor story. Something essential to news coverage: conflict and intrigue.

HT: espn.go.com

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I've been talking with other journalists and analysts in the sport about how Strikeforce should be and isn't promoting Fedor properly. During these talks, our own Michael Rome had an interesting idea: why not use the UFC's popularity against itself? In other words, promote Fedor by having the cavalcade of UFC fighters who've given endorsements in the past about the Russian and his abilities rather than other MMA journalists no one knows. It's a smart idea. Use their existing appeal and cosigning to give the recommendations about Fedor real heft and gravity. Joe Rogan and BJ Penn do so here and here, respectively.

But why stop there? I also believe Strikeforce can use the failed negotiations between Emelianenko/M-1 with the UFC this past summer to demonstrate their clout as a real competitor to Zuffa. And as you can see, the press is naturally drawn to the storyline of that now famous rift:

Emelianenko is one of the few big names in MMA to operate outside of the Ultimate Fighting Championship. Many of his critics believe he cannot be the true No. 1 unless he fights the best competition, which they say reside in the UFC. In 2006, after the UFC bought Pride FC, where Emelianenko was the heavyweight champion, many of its fighters signed with the UFC, but not him.

For years, fans have clamored to have the UFC sign him and it almost happened in August. Emelianenko became a free agent after Affliction got out of the fight promotion business.

Emelianenko's management company, M-1 Global, held talks with the UFC. Huge salary numbers were tossed around, but the main issue was co-promotion. M-1 wanted to co-promote Emelianenko's fights with the UFC. The UFC has never done that and said they never will. The talks deadlocked.

Strikeforce was willing to accept M-1's co-promotion terms. It already has a co-promotion deal with DREAM, a Japanese MMA company. So it was Strikeforce that signed Emelianenko to a four-fight contract.

UFC president Dana White was furious with Emelianenko, M-1, and Strikeforce. Fans were teased by the tantalizing thought of a match with Emelianenko against the UFC's dominating heavyweight Brock Lesnar. But this week Emelianenko didn't seem to worry about fan backlash.

''I think it would be good if they would understand that I could not sign a one-sided contract with the UFC,'' Emelianenko said. ''Vadim [Finkelchtein], my manager he considered that we deserve a little bit more.''

If you can't beat the UFC, use them. It won't solve all of your problems, but it's far better than swimming upstream. MMA is the UFC's show. One might as well borrow some of their glow.

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Josh Gross asks, 1. Will Fedor remain at the top of the heavyweight division?

Emelianenko's cage debut Nov. 7 on CBS will reveal plenty regarding the state of a weight class. For 33-year-old Russian to retain the top spot, he'll be expected to walk through 6-foot-5, 265-pound Brett Rogers. But if Rogers pulls off one of the biggest upsets in MMA history -- despite being unbeaten in 10 fights, a victory by Rogers over Emelianenko would, in my estimation, be equivalent to Buster Douglas unseating Mike Tyson -- MMA's heavyweights would, for the first time in years, face the kind of upheaval previously reserved for everyone else.

and  (this is the much more important question) 2. Is Fedor a marketable star in the U.S.?

Will a non-English-speaking European athlete captivate an American audience? It hasn't happened in boxing, though few foreign pugilists have appeared on American soil with the kind of support Emelianenko boasts among ardent MMA watchers. The expectation from network executives is for hardcore fans to watch in droves on Saturday. This we know. But what about casual fans who committed themselves in record numbers to viewing ratings king Kevin "Kimbo Slice" Ferguson on CBS, Showtime and SpikeTV?

Without "media lightning rods" like Slice or Gina Carano, both of whom deserve credit for pulling substantial ratings in the all-important male 18-34 demographic, Kelly Kahl, senior executive vice president of primetime programming for CBS, hopes Emelianenko's standing as MMA's best heavyweight will resonate with casual audiences. A late marketing push on the network (full disclosure: I was quoted in promo spots that ran over the weekend on CBS) and strong pre-event media coverage (Strikeforce has received nearly three times as many media credential requests than its previous best) has the network and its promotional partner feeling good heading into fight week.

Gross also projects that anything less than a peak audience of 5.5 million for Fedor's fight will be a major disappointment. That would be a couple million less than Kimbo Slice's peak, but considerably better than the Jake Shields headlined EliteXC from July 2008. Gross expects Fedor to meet that threshold.

A few weeks back, our own Michael Rome made his own projections about how the show would do and drew similar conclusions:

On November 7, Strikeforce will put on the biggest fight it can possibly promote in Fedor Emelianenko vs. Brett Rogers.  There are lots of ratings predictions going around, but the truth is that almost nobody knows what Fedor will draw on CBS.  The safe money puts the number between the 1.9 Jake Shields and Robbie Lawler draw and the 3.1 Kimbo Slice drew against James Thompson.  The former number was a disaster, while the latter was an unmitigated success.

The implications for the future of MMA could not be bigger. While the UFC is indisputably the industry leader, so far ahead of the pack they're about to lap the competition, a successful CBS broadcast will change the playing field.

I've written a great deal in the past about how significant it would have been for the UFC to have signed Fedor after the fall of Affliction:

Dana and the Fertittas came very close to permanently locking up all five of the marquee divisions in MMA when they went balls out trying to sign Fedor Emeliananko earlier this month. Most of the analysis revolved around Fedor's motivations and the angry backlash of disappointed fans who wanted to see Fedor vs Brock Lesnar, but most missed the implications of the UFC acquiring the top heavyweight in the game. Had they locked up Fedor then Zuffa would have the #1 fighter in all seven of the divisions tracked by the USAT/SBN Consensus MMA rankings and would have effectively locked themselves in as THE major league of the sport.

But even with that final victory snatched from his grasp, Dana only pushes even harder for world domination. In the aftermath of Strikeforce's very solid ratings performance with Carano vs Cyborg, the specter of Fedor on CBS has to be keeping Dana White up at night.

It was one thing for CBS and EliteXC to have a short term success on the back of Kimbo Slice and Gina Carano, neither of whom represented a direct threat to the UFC. But if the undisputed #1 heavyweight in the world becomes a major draw on an American broadcast network and the UFC is on the outside looking in, it means there will be competition to promote the biggest MMA fights for the foreseeable future. That's big doings.