A lot of people including myself expected Rampage Jackson to knock Keith Jardine out.  Because the fight was close and he wasn't able to, people have been down on Jackson's performance.  In my view, this was partially colored by the announcing and partially by false notions about Keith Jardine.

To start, Keith Jardine is an excellent fighter.  Despite a few slips, he holds notable wins over Brandon Vera, Forrest Griffin, and Chuck Liddell.  He has proven to be very effective at grinding out long decisions and frustrating opponents that have trouble finding him with their hands.  Even I bought into the idea that he had no chin, but he took two of the same hooks that demolished Wanderlei Silva and survived them.  He also took a great number of punches throughout the rest of the fight, and despite being rocked was able to survive each time.  

Instead of rushing Jardine (as was supposedly the gameplan), Jackson fought a patient fight.  He fought the kind of fight Jardine is great at, and he beat him at it.  He's the first to do that in the UFC (don't get me started on Bonnar).  Jardine's style throws a lot of guys off, and many have found him hard to hit.  All that being said, Jackson found Jardine's chin far more times than Jardine found Jackson's.  Jackson's boxing defense is extremely underrated, and outside of a flurry set up by a Ric Flair style low blow, Jardine spent most of the fight whiffing punches or getting punches blocked. 

The primary offense Jardine landed consisted of leg kicks.  However, these were nothing like the kicks Forrest landed on Rampage (and Rashad).  He never really committed to them due to understandable concern over Jackson's power, and mostly used them as an annoyance to force Jackson to reset rather than as a damaging tool.  None of these kicks hurt Jackson, whose injuries now ironically come from his own punching in the fight.

The idea that he would have lost if not for the final knockdown is really irrelevant, every second of a fight counts and he landed a very good combination that sealed his win.  Similarly, Jardine probably would have lost the decision to Liddell if he didn't score a knockdown in the second round.  The fact that it happened at the end of the fight doesn't really mean anything.

The criticism that he didn't mix it up doesn't really hold water either.  He threw more kicks than I've seen him go for in years, tried to work the clinch for a slam (Jardine defended well), and got two takedowns.  Jardine was able to get up, but he's also known in his camp as someone very hard to keep down.  Rashad even mentioned this in the third round of the fight.  He also did an excellent job stuffing a deep Jardine takedown attempt.  

Continue reading this post »

From my new site Sack Mike Goldberg:

Go ahead, go ahead, go ahead. Good job by Yves Lavigne, he says go ahead.

Maybe it’s unfair to call out Goldie for something in the heat of the moment, but the UFC pays him to accurately describe the action in the Octagon.  With that in mind, Goldie fails on all accounts here.  Yes, it would have been perfect officiating for Lavigne to let the fight go.  The fact of the matter is that he stepped in and grabbed Matt Brown, saw Sell come to, and restarted the fight.  Mike should be cognizant enough to recognize this at this stage of his career.  I hate bringing him up all the time, but there’s no way Jim Lampley makes the same call in this situation.

Wow, you know what, take the stoppage, controversial or not.  Take it out for a second, Joe, and just talk about Matt Brown, WOW.

Just so much wrong with this statement.  For starters, the fight is characterized by a bizarre decision from the referee, yet Goldie’s first instinct is to whitewash the whole thing.  Let me repeat, Goldberg takes the major storyline from the fight and tosses it aside.  And for what?  Well, to offer some not-so-technical knob polishing of Matt Brown’s performance.  Don’t get me wrong, Brown looked superb.  But if you’re going to ignore the big talking point of the fight, you better offer a little more than caveman hyperbole.

Josh Gross:

Perhaps it's too soon to call it a trend, but the lack of submissions during UFC 96 is worth discussing. Saturday's card in Columbus marked the third event in the organization's last six that failed to produce a submission (tapout to choke or joint lock).

Prior to UFC 96, 94 and 92, the last time a UFC card finished submission-less was February 2007, at UFC 67 -- a span of 36 events. Over the course of 94 Zuffa-era UFC events, only eight have failed to yield some sort of submission. That three of those cards took place in the past four months is at a minimum noteworthy, at worst disconcerting.

Just once has the UFC come up short on submissions in consecutive events. Way back when, in 1996, UFC 9 and 10 saw plenty of finishes, just not a tap from a rear-naked choke, triangle, armbar or countless other ways to end a fight via lock or choke. Understandably, that was an entirely different era.

I've been concerned that MMA is becoming too unbalanced and the disturbing trend that Gross points out does nothing to reassure me.

Ideally, MMA should be a blend of the three phase of fighting -- range fighting, the clinch and ground fighting -- with plenty of dynamic transitions from phase to phase.

I'm not saying there's anything wrong with a good stand-up war, but I do worry that MMA is degenerating into bad kickboxing.

And you don't have to be a smarty pants MMA fan to notice. From the Columbus Dispatch:

A friend who attended his first Ultimate Fighting Championship event Saturday night in Nationwide Arena wasn't impressed with the brawling ("90 percent of it is boxing, and they're bad boxers") and said it will never go mainstream unless they clean it up. That works for me. I'm not sure we want head kicks in the mainstream. It moves us that much closer to Rollerball.

HT FightOpinion

Matt Hamill's high kick knock out of Mark Munoz at UFC 96, caught most everyone by surprise, no one more so than Mark Munoz. 

Hamill had shown some decent punching power in previous fights, but this was the first time he'd shown such devastating kicks.

The highkick knock out has a pretty storied history in MMA, going back to Maurice Smith's shocking wins over Marcus "Conan" Silveira and Mark Coleman. I've discussed Mo Smith's glory run in my mma history series here and here. The shocking part about Maurice Smith winning fights with high kicks wasn't that Smith, a former world kickboxing champion, could throw a vicious high kick, it was that at the time few believed that high kicks were of any use in MMA at all.

The theory was that grapplers like Silveira and Coleman would simply use the kick as an opportunity to score a takedown and win the fight on the ground. Smith proved that if a kickboxer learned enough jiu jitsu to defend himself on the ground, he could employ high kicks to devastating effect later in the fight against tired opponents.

Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic was the second champion caliber kickboxer to excel at MMA although he never won a top title. Mirko worked his sprawl more than Smith but also had enough jiu jitsu to stall an opponent from his back and get the standup. Mirko was notable also for being a southpaw and his left high kick became universally feared.

Thirteen years later, the shocking part about Matt Hamill winning via spectacular head kick is that he's a guy who came into MMA with a purely wrestling background. It shouldn't really be that shocking anymore, not after wrestler Rashad Evans KTFO'd Sean Salmon back at UFN 8 in 2007. (Gif of that in the full entry.)

The key to both KO's was the way the opponent was lured into leaning forward into the power of the kick. Presumably Munoz, like Sean Salmon before him, or like Mark Coleman all the way back at UFC 17 against Pete Williams, thought Hamill was about to fire off a leg kick and leaned down to block the kick. Big mistake.

The other thing to note is that the impact of the kick is delivered with the shin bone, not the foot. Some martial arts -- mainly Tae Kwon Do -- teach to kick with the foot, but Muay Thai -- the main kicking style taught in MMA -- insists on using the shin for maximum impact.

Lastly, note that Hamill throws the kick with his rear leg. This makes it a power kick as opposed to one thrown with the lead leg -- the kicking equivalent of a lead hand hook.

Of course, Hamill would never have been able to land this kick if he hadn't already established an effective sprawl that foiled Munoz when he tried to shoot in for double and single leg takedowns. By the time Hamill went for the kill, Munoz was already flustered, frustrated and fearful of Hamill's punching.

We'll never really know whether Munoz or Hamill is a better wrestler, but we do know that this saturday, the more complete MMA fighter won the fight.

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Steve Cofield reports on the problematic refereeing at UFC 96 and Dana White's outraged response at the post-fight press conference:

The officiating inside the cage at UFC 96 was a big topic in the aftermath. Referee Rick Fike started the night off in dubious fashion and Yves Lavigne almost got Pete Sell killed. That prompted UFC president Dana White to go on a tirade. He's so unhappy with the state of officiating in mixed martial arts that he stated there's only three good referees. And even those guys, he had trouble recalling.

In his rant, Dana names Herb Dean as a quality referee (can't argue there), Mario Yamasaki, says Steve Mazzagatti is NOT but leaves one name noticably unmentioned -- the consensus best referree in the history of MMA: Big John McCarthy.

There simply are not enough top-notch experienced referees in the world for the UFC to continue blackballing McCarthy. I don't care what the man said while he was commenting for the Fight Network, there is too much at stake for Dana to keep the best referee in the biz out of the Octagon.

According to Big John its up to the Athletic Commissions and the UFC.

Do the right thing Dana, bring back Big John:

This was a thoroughly enjoyable show.  A lot of fights were short and one-sided, but sometimes that makes a show really entertaining.

Gray Maynard got another ugly win.  He had some nice body shots, and as soon as it was clear Miller couldn't get him down the outcome was inevitable.  I still think Maynard has a long way to go though before he can hang with someone like BJ Penn.

The Hamill fight was a good reminder that MMA wrestling is not the same thing as amateur wrestling.  I let myself get caught up in the hype for Munoz's wrestling without remembering that Hamill just has a much more well-rounded game.  This KO was sickening too.

Matt Brown looked good, but man Yves Lavigne deserves to be fired for his performance in this fight.  First he stops the fight, then gets bullied into restarting it, and then he refuses to stop a fight that should have been stopped three or four times.  This was beyond terrible/

I'm still kind of in shock over Shane Carwin's win.  The fight started just like I suspected, with Gonzaga landing a great shot and getting him down.  The fact that Carwin was able to melt Gonzaga with a short right was incredible.  Carwin is still very green, but he's obviously got insane power.  To beat him guys will have to avoid getting hit at all.

The main event was a great fight.  I thought the commentary bias was terribly pro-Jardine due to Rashad's presence, but I suppose it doesn't matter.  It was interesting to see Jackson try to clinch up and go for a slam right away when swarming Jardine has always been the best strategy.  He even admitted after the fight that he deviated from the plan.  He fought Jardine's fight, but still ended up on top.  I thought he won the first round too now that I've seen it with the sound off, those kicks weren't doing much damage and Jackson had the harder shots.

Jardine showed great heart surviving two knockdowns.  He answered any questions about his chin tonight, and if Rampage beats Rashad I'd love to see a five round rematch.  Jackson busting out two takedowns was surprising, but Jardine stood right up, something his teammates have told me he does all the time in practice.

I loved the trash talk, it's nice to have some lighthearted fun in the sport, and I found the whole thing extraordinarily entertaining.  It was also interesting to finally see Rampage as a fan favorite among a heavily white UFC crowd.  Dana White said today that Rampage and Rashad will get the next UFC: Primetime treatment.  That is a huge fight.

The entertainment value out of this show provides a good glimpse into why the UFC does so well.  Even when a card is weak, there's always a chance for breakout performances and exciting fights.  Star power isn't everything, and this isn't the first time a weak looking card delivered a home run.

As with every major show we'll be here to bring you live results and commentary on UFC 96: Jackson vs. Jardine.  The real live blog will start with the beginning of the PPV broadcast so make sure to make Bloody Elbow your home for this event.

As always we have our one rule: NO SPOILERS!  In the interest of not ruining anything from the undercard that may make the broadcast we ask that you do not discuss the results of the undercard in the comments until either the broadcast ends or the fight makes the air.

So again, join me for the show and share your thoughts as the event unfolds.

We're live and I'm instantly excited for a show that I didn't care too much about yesterday.  God bless MMA.

Gray Maynard vs. Jim Miller - Round 1 - Miller is pushing forward early and throwing two punch combos.  Miller clinches with Marnard against the fence.  Two punch body/head combo by Gray lands.  Right hand lands for Gray flush but Miller isn't phased.  Big body kick now from Jim.  Miller shoots for a single and Gray lands some punches as he fights it off.  Miller is bleeding from his nose pretty heavily.  Miller is still working for the single but he isn't able to finish it.  Another body kick by Miller.  The round ends with Gray landing another right hand and it was a clear Marnard round.  Maynard 10-9.  Round 2 - Two punch combo by Maynard is blocked.  Leg kick cracks for Miller and he lands a right hand right after.  Right hand lands for Gray.  Big body shot by Gray now.  What looked to be a clean leg kick gets a low blow warning for Jim now.  Big right by Gray again.  Jim goes for a single and pulls guard but Maynard stands back up.  Right hand lands clean for Gray again.  Miller with a few leg kicks but Maynard starts to throw the power shots again.  They exchange shots as the round ends but Maynard won it clear on the card again.  10-9 Maynard makes it 20-18 on my card.  Round 3 - Three punch combo by Maynard.  Straight right continues to find a home on Miller's face.  Jim is game but he just doesn't seem like he has the right answer here.  Gray with a takedown and Miller comes very close to locking in a kneebar but Maynard escapes.  Miller with another shot attempt but he can't finish it yet again.  Miller keeps working but cant finish and now he pulls guard and is eating punches from Gray.  They go back to standing and the round ends.  Gray was just too much for the very tough Miller.  My scorecard ends at 30-27 for Maynard.  Official Scorecards:  30-27 across the board.  Gray Maynard wins by unanimous decision.

Matt Hamill vs. Mark Munoz - Round 1 - Hamill pushes forward and stuffs a double from Mark. Flurry of punches land for Hamill and Munoz grabs a single but can't finish.  Overhand right for Munoz lands twice but it's crazy how wide his punches are.  Body shots from Munoz now and those are much better than the looping shots.  Now another flurry of shots from Hamill.  A few more wide punches land for Munoz  but he's losing the fight on the feet to Matt's better striking technique.  Another wide right lands for Munoz.  High kick from Hamill lands flush and Munoz is out cold.  Wow, I can honestly say I didn't een consider that as a possible ending to this fight.  Matt Hamill wins by KO (high kick), round 1.

Frank Mir is talking to Goldie and says they took out 50 bone fragments and some scar tissue and it will be 5 weeks out from the fight before he can spar so he is wanting to push the fight to July 11 rather than not have a full training camp.

Rashad Evans will defend his title in place of the Frank Mir fight.  If Jardine wins it will be Evans/Machida, if Rampage wins it will be Evans/Jackson.

Pete Sell vs. Matt Brown - As a liveblogger I love fights like this.  Easy last names to type make my job so much easier!  Round 1 - High kick right away by Brown is blocked but a superman punch lands as does another head kick then a right hand drops Sell.  Yves jumps in for a second and then decides to let them go after Brown stopped attacking.  So Brown comes back in and drops him with a knee/right hand combo. Big elbows wna d Sell's mouthpiece is out.  Sell's legs are rubber and he falls down on his own.  This fight has gone on WAY too long and finally as Sell lays on his back Brown lands a couple punches forcing Yves to jump in.  Matt Brown wins by TKO (punches), round 1.

Kendall Grove vs. Jason Day - Round 1 - undercard action here.  Day pushing forward and landing shots.  Grove still looks like he doesn't like pressure.  Big right hand and Day goes stiff as a board and is out cold.  The night of brutal knockouts continues.  Kendall Grove wins by KO (punch), round 1.

Shane Carwin vs. Gabriel Gonzaga - Round 1 - Carwin charges in with punches but Gonzaga lands some clean punches and Carwin's eyes rolled.  Now Gonzaga gets a quick takedown and Carwin pulls guard.  Carwin stands up.  RIGHT HAND FROM CARWIN AND GONZAGA IS OUT!  What a night!  Shane Carwin wins by KO (punch), round 1.

Tamdan McCrory vs. Ryan Madigan - Round 1 - More undercard action here.  Madigan with a few kicks and McCrory with a quick takedown.  Tamdan to side control.  Tamdan stands up and lands a few big right hands but does end up back in Madigan's full guard.  Pass to side control again and now to full mount.  Attempt at a triangle from the top and he ends up back in side control.  Tamdan gets careless and gives away his leg but Ryan doesn't have the game to take advantage.  Now back to full mount and he is punishing Madigan forcing the ref to stop the fight.  Madigan is bloody and had no answer on the ground whatsoever.  Tamdan McCrory wins by submission (strikes), round 1.

Quinton "Rampage" Jackson vs. Keith Jardine - Main event time!  Round 1 - Odd staredown and nipple tweak by Jardine and we're going.  Rampage is clinching with Jardine against the fence and is throwing knees to the legs and the crowd is booing about 30 seconds in.  They're separated and Jardine with 3 punches.  Two punches and back out now and a leg kick from Jardine.  Jardine is throwing a few shots and getting out which is very smart.  Takedown attempt is stuffed by Jackson.  Jardine with a punch and now looking for a takedown but he gives up and lands another punch. Jackson has yet to figure out Jardine's timing.  Leg kick and back out.  Right hand by Jackson finally lands but Jardine is able to answer with a punch of his own.  Body kick by Jardine is caught.  Uppercut lands for Jackson but Jardine survives.  Knee to the body lands for Jardine.  Close round but I'll give it to Jardine 10-9.  Round 2 - Right hand lands clean by Jackson as does a low kick.  Body kick by Jardine but a right hand answer by Jackson.  Head kick is blocked by Jackson. Good leg kick by Jardine now.  Another leg kick lands...and another....and another.  Left hook by Jackson drops Jardine but Keith gets to his feet after eating some punishment on the ground.  Impressive for Keith to survive that.  Low kick by Jardine again.  Double leg by Rampage now and Jardine stands right back up.  Low kick lands on the cup of Jackson.  They go back to fighting, uppercut by Jardine stumbles Rampage.  Keith unloads and Rampage buckles but doesn't go down. That makes this a very close round with 40 seconds to go.  Rampage flurries and that should cement the round for him.  10-9 Rampage and I've got it even on my card.  Round 3 - Body kick from Keith lands.  Right hand glances for Jardine and Jackson lands a body kick of his own.  Takedown by Jackson and he is in Jardine's half guard.  Jardine stands right back up without taking any damage.  Leg kick lands for Keith.  And another.  This is a really difficult fight to score. Another leg kick.  Sneaky right hand lands for Jardine on Jackson's jaw.  Jackson is having trouble timing Jardine to be able to pull the trigger.  Hook lands for Rampage and Jardine ducks away from any more damage.  Takedown attempt for Keith is stuffed.  One minute left and they're restarted.  Right hands land for both guys and Rampage lands some nice punches afterward.  This is a really, really difficult fight to score.  Jardine is dropped with a right hand at the end of the round.  I was going to give him the round but now I have to give it to Jackson.  My card is 29-28 Jackson.  Official Scorecards: 29-28, 29-28, 30-27.  Quinton "Rampage" Jackson wins by unanimous decision.

It will be Quinton Jackson vs. Rashad Evans for the title.

Brandon Vera vs. Mike Patt - Round 1 - Vera with some tough leg kicks early.  Patt looks like his job may be "punching bag" tonight.  It's just leg kicks and quick combos for Vera.  Right hand lands to Patt's forehead.  Vera is just mashing him with leg kicks here.  Another leg kick and Patt fals down but he gets up to get some more.  It's just more of the same as the round ends.  10-9 Vera.  Round 2 - Another series of leg kicks and as Patt hops around on one leg Vera runs in and lands another leg kick that puts him down.  he lets him stand and lands ANOTHER huge leg kick that puts Patt down and the fight is over.  Brandon Vera wins by TKO (leg strikes), round 2.

Jason Brilz vs. Tim Boetsch - Round 1 - Right hand by Tim and then a bit knee.  Brilz is having to cover up here.  Uppercut/left hook combo (my personal favorite) for Tim.  Brilz with a fully in the clinch.  Beautifully timed takedown off of the kick for Brilz.  Boetsch stands back up though.  Brilz with a right hand over the top and he is settling in now.  Right hand lands flush for Tim.  Uppercut lands again for Tim.  Boetsch is back to winning the striking battle.  Boetsch is throwing big shots as the round ends.  10-9 Boetsch.  Round 2 - Right hand lands for Brilz but not hard.  His corner wants him to get a takedown but he keeps getting into that striking mode.  Brilz does grab the takedown this time though.  Pass to side control but he isn't doing a whole ton with it.  Knees to the body now.  North south position now and Brilz works over the body.  Guillotine attempt by Brilz but he can't finish, still in side control though.  Clear 10-9 round for Brilz.  Round 3 - Boetsch avoids the takedown early.  Overhand right lands for Tim.  Knee to the body lands but Brilz works through it and tries for a takedown before taking Tim's back.  They're back up.  Brilz with another takedown, side control, full mount and lands some good shots before the round ends.  29-28 Brilz on my card.  Official Scorecards:  29-28 across the board.  Jason Brilz wins by unanimous decision.

UFC 96: Jackson vs. Jardine Main Card Picks from BloodyElbow.com

Editor's note: My schedule the last few months has been hectic enough where I have not been able to properly devote enough time to writing and posting predictions. Alas, UFC 96 is no different. Worse, I forgot to do my picks for the under card, so as a general rule, I cannot post on the main card (remember, there's nothing worse than someone who only does predictions for the main card of UFC events). For the record, I like Jackson, Gonzaga, Hamill, Brown, and Maynard.

Quinton Jackson vs. Keith Jardine



Kid Nate: This really is a very intriguing fight. Jardine is the definitive ugly winner who uses his awkward style, strong leg kicks and good coaching to great advantage...provided he can survive the first minute of the fight. Rampage on the other hand looked small against Forrest Griffin and had trouble with Forrest's kicks. He made good against Wanderlei, but Jardine is a very different fighter than Silva. I think Jackson will be able to take advantage of Jardine's chin here and surely Rampage has trained on checking leg kicks. Jackson by KO in 1.

Brent Brookhouse:  I've said it in the past but it is worth remembering that, other than a VERY controversial decision loss to Bonnar, Jardine has never lost a fight in the UFC that has gotten outside of the first minute.  Honestly the fact that this is a 3 round fight benefits Jardine more than if we were looking at a 5 round title fight.  Jackson's power is legitimate but he showed some serious problems dealing with the leg kicks of Griffin and Jardine's leg kicks are even more solid. I really am struggling with wanting to pick Jardine here but I think he'll be a bit too wide with his punches and an opening will be there for a Jackson counterpunch to finish the night.  There is a very real possibility that Jardine wins this fight but I'm playing it safe.  Jackson by TKO, round 2.

Mike Rome:  Jardine is dangerous if he can turn this into a long, drawn out affair where time runs out as Quinton looks for the KO.  However, I don't see that happening.  He has too much power, and his boxing is just too good.  Jardine's wide boxing style just leaves so many openings for Jackson, I don't think he'll be able to throw those kinds of punches and get away with it.  Jackson via KO, round 1.

Michael Fagan: Even Greg Jackson is saying leg kicks won't play a huge part in this fight.  Unfortunately for Keith, he has a suspect chin and he's fighting a guy who hits like a mule.  Jackson by TKO, round 3.

Cannon Jacques:  Jardine is one of those guys that's so unorthodox, yet effective, that he has a decent chance of beating fighters he should not best.  Jackson is far more dangerous and is much more likely to end the fight at any point in time.  He must avoid the leg kicks or at least check them effectively, because I'm sure Jardine and Greg Jackson have prepared to exploit that weakness.  Jackson's boxing is quite good, and I believe he'll be able to land some good shots before the fight is done.  Jackson by TKO, round 2.

Chris Nelson: OMG L3G KIX0RS! I fully understand why everyone's looking at these as a big factor, but... they're not going to be a big factor. (I don't think Greg Jackson is trying to work any reverse psychology when he says that either.) If these two had faced one another earlier in their UFC runs, I might have given the edge to the more awkward Jardine. But "Rampage" will be ready here, and for all Jardine's world class training, you can't train a solid chin. Quinton Jackson by TKO, Round 1.


Shane Carwin vs. Gabriel Gonzaga

Kid Nate: Big test for Shane Carwin here. He's big, a strong wrestler, but doesn't train full time, is a bit older than most prospects and hasn't faced top competition. Gabriel Gonzaga is also a physical powerhouse with good striking and strong jiu jitsu. His question marks are those of heart, conditioning and fortitude. My gut tells me that Carwin is too big and strong to be bullied by Gonzaga and that he will force the Brazilian to quit. Carwin by TKO.

Brent Brookhouse:  I can't get past the fact that Gonzaga does not have a trusty gas tank and if Carwin forces him to work, work, work in the first round he can finish him in the second. I'm going against my initial feelings on the fight here but I think Carwin can wear Gonzaga out and finish him in the second half of the fight.  Shane Carwin by TKO, round 3.

Mike Rome:  I guess I'm kind of going out on a limb here, but I'm not buying into the Carwin hype until proven otherwise.  All we know about how good he is is what we've been told, not what we've seen.  I think Gonzaga will overwhelm him in the first, Gonzaga via KO, round 1.

Michael Fagan: Whenever you have guy taking a huge step up in competition, you have to make some leaps of faith with him.  I assume Carwin has credible sub defense from the top and has durable cardio.  Gonzaga quits in fights where he can't be the bully, and Carwin looks like your prototypical bully.  Carwin by TKO, round 2.

Cannon Jacques:  This one is difficult to pick, because there is so much that's not known about Carwin.  He's a huge guy that's finished all his opponents early in the first round.  Gonzaga is a known quantity, a big man with excellent jiu-jitsu who has been known to use some powerful leg kicks from time to time.  Carwin has a ton of upside, given his size, wrestling ability, and intelligence.  However, Gonzaga is a legitimate top 10 heavyweight with a definite experience edge when it comes to top tier UFC competition.  Not to mention, his BJJ skills may be the kryptonite needed against a largely untested wrestler.  Gonzaga by submission, round 2.

Chris Nelson: I'm down with Shane Carwin as a major prospect in theory, but there's not enough data to pick him against "Napão," who's nearly as big as Carwin and with a much more complete game than anyone Carwin's faced. Gonzaga will have to use his BJJ pedigree to end this early, 'cause his gas tank is his liability and the deeper this goes, the more it favors Carwin. Napão by Submission, Round 1.


Pete Sell vs. Matt Brown



Kid Nate: Pete Sell has always tended to ignore his jiu jitsu skills in favor of brawling. Brown is showing signs of improvement but its hard to see him as a contender at 170lbs. Hard to believe this is on the main card, really. I'm going to take a flying leap and pick Pete Sell by TKO.

Brent Brookhouse:  I really enjoy Matt Brown's style and if he can continue to develop he can be a really tough competitor down the road.  Pete Sell is well past "maxed out" in terms of how far he can advance.  Matt Brown by TKO, round 2.

Mike Rome:  So hard to care about this fight, but Matt Brown is the better fighter now. Matt Brown via submission, round 2.

Michael Fagan: I think Sell is bigger, stronger, and has better all around skills.  Pete Sell by decision.

Cannon Jacques:  No easy call here.  Neither are top competitors in their division, but Brown is on a bit of a roll.  Brown by decision.

Chris Nelson: I forgot Pete Sell was still in the UFC. He's the bigger guy here thanks to his cut to 170, but Luke... I mean Matt Brown was undersized by a few inches against Dong Hyun Kim too and nearly eeked that one out. "Drago" has an exploitable chin and doesn't use his BJJ nearly enough, preferring to stand and brawl. Matt Brown via TKO, Round 1.


Matt Hamill vs. Mark Munoz



Kid Nate: Another fight I'm excited about. Hamill has done quite well for a fighter who's entire pro career has taken place inside the Octagon. He's not quite a contender at 205 but he's far from being drummed out of the UFC either. For Munoz this fight is a pretty high pressure UFC debut for a very decorated wrestler coming in from the WEC. Presumably Munoz is the better wrestler, but Hamill has the edge in UFC experience and we've seen the power in his strikes. I'm going to go with Munoz here because I haven't seen Hamill making the adjustments he needs to make to keep honing his game. Munoz by TKO.

Brent Brookhouse:  Hamill needs to d-e-v-e-l-o-p his game beyond just sloppy but powerful boxing and wrestling and if he doesn't that what we have seen to this point is the best of Matt Hamill.  I really think Munoz can outwrestle Hamill and I don't think that Matt is the kind of guy who reacts well to being bullied.  Three rounds of Munoz by takedowns and smothering offense.  Munoz by decision.

Mike Rome:  Munoz is technically the better wrestler, but Hamill has the UFC experience.  This is a hard pick, but Hamill doesn't look great of late.  I'm going to go with Munoz via decision.

Michael Fagan: I think people are overlooking Hamill.  He has his flaws, and he didn't look great against Rich Franklin, but Franklin is a significant step up from Munoz.  Matt Hamill by decision.

Cannon Jacques:  This looks to be a pretty close match.  There's some debate as to who is the better wrestler.  I believe it's close enough in that department that we may see a display similar to Tyson Griffin vs. Sean Sherk, and the fight is determined by other aspects of fighting.  That's where Hamill's UFC experience should benefit him.  He hasn't shown any impressive techical striking, but he has a great chin and a lot of punching power.  Hamill by TKO, round 3.

Chris Nelson: I really don't know how big of a factor wrestling will be in this fight. Both guys have power, but I've only really seen Hamill's chin proven. I haven't seen enough of Munoz to pick him in his first fight in the big show. Matt Hamill by Decision.


Jim Miller vs. Gray Maynard

Kid Nate: This is a fight I'm very excited to see. Miller is a very skilled fighter, well rounded fighter, good wrestling, good submissions, decent striking. He convincingly beat the game Matt Wiman one short notice -- beat him standing and on the ground. Maynard on the other hand is pretty limited as a martial artist, excellent wrestling, power in his hands but not a great deal of striking technique, no jiu jitsu to speak of particularly. However Gray is huge for the weight class and is believed to have a significant wrestling edge. I like Miller's chances though, I think he's got good enough wrestling to force scrambles and avoid losing a lay and pray decision. Maynard might batter him down, but he won't be able to coast. Miller has more ways to win. Miller by submission.

Brent Brookhouse:  I don't see all the Maynard hype.  He's not a finisher, he is big for the weight and has strong wrestling but his game is SO limited.  Miller is dangerous everywhere the fight could go, he lets himself get hit a little more than I like to see but he is so good at flowing with the fight.  When it goes to the ground it is completely instinctual for him, there is no taking a break to catch his breath and figure out a plan he is just all out for the full 15 minutes.  Diversity will be what determines the outcome.  Jim Miller by submission, round 2. 

Mike Rome:  Tough fight to call, but ultimately Maynard is going to be too skilled for Miller.  I suspect Miller will be looking for submissions the whole fight, but by staying on his back the whole time he'll end up losing a decision.  Maynard via decision.

Michael Fagan: Maynard's gotten by primarily with his size and wrestling.  I think that stops here.  Miller's a competent enough wrestler to at least neutralize Maynard, and if not, he has good enough jiu jitsu to stifle him on the floor.  Jim Miller by decision.

Cannon Jacques:  If this bout goes to decision, I'm inclined to believe that Maynard will be the victor.  I really liked Maynard coming out of TUF, but he hasn't been able to finish his opponents frequently; he's, in fact, coming off three straight decision victories.  This could be his downfall against someone as dangerous from the bottom as Miller.  I expect the fight to eventually get to the ground with Maynard likely on top.  That's when Miller will work his excellent jiu-jitsu.  Miller by submission, round 2.

Chris Nelson: Maynard surprises me every time by grinding out a "W," even if it's usually not in a particularly thrilling fashion. But Maynard's never faced someone with the dynamic, well-rounded skillset Miller possesses. I say the younger Miller avenges Maynard's win over his Jersey homie Frank Edgar. Jim Miller by Submission, Round 3.

HT: UFC.com

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