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Scheduled Event

EliteXC: Unfinished Business

Jul 26, 2008 10:00 PM EDT
Stockton Center: Stockton, California
Main Event: Robbie Lawler vs. Scott Smith

"EliteXC: Unfinished Business" Payroll Released

Numbers from MMAWeekly:

Robbie Lawler: $90,000 (which included a $45,000 win bonus)
def. Scott Smith: $14,000

Nick Diaz: $60,000 (no win bonus)
def. Thomas Denny: $8,500

Jake Shields: $45,000 ($10,000 win bonus)
def. Nick Thompson: $25,000

Cristiane Cyborg: $6,000 ($3,000 win bonus)
def. Shayna Baszler: $8,000

Antonio Silva: $200,000 ($100,000 win bonus)
def. Justin Eilers: $20,000

Rafael "Feijao" Cavalcante: $20,000 ($10,000 win bonus)
def. Travis Galbraith: $5,000

Wilson Reis: $5,000 ($2,500 win bonus)
def. Bryan Caraway: $2,000

Anthony Ruiz: $5,001 ($3,00O win bonus)
def. Jeremy Freitag: $2,5000

David Douglas: $4,000 ($1,500 win bonus)
def. Marlon Matias: $2,500

Carl Seumanutafa: $4,000 ($2,000 win bonus)
def. Mike Cook: $2000

Drew Montgomery: $3,000 ($1,500 win bonus)
def. Brandon Tarn: $2,000

Two things are glaringly obvious: Antonio Silva made out like a bandit, and the ladies were completely screwed.

The small fortune "Bigfoot" came away with is a tidy $120,000 pay bump from his $80,000 performance against Ricco Rodriguez. It's kind of bizarre that -- officially -- he made almost double what Lawler and Smith made combined, but maybe that's the Showtime money.

As for Cyborg and Baszler, there's really no explanation other than that they were -- again, officially -- criminally underpaid for one of the best fights of the night.

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Cotto vs. Margarito and Incompetence Helped to Hurt EliteXC's Stockton Efforts

It wasn't just the lack of Kimbo Slice or Gina Carano that accounted for the 40% drop in ratings from the first EliteXC event to the second. There were other factors at play that aren't getting enough coverage. Jordan Breen opines:

Even if the impetus for slapping the July card together was advertisers, who didn't want to wait until October to cash in on their investment, promotion for the event itself was weak. Google trends, search tags and all the online detectors of pre-event heat were lacking. I talked to some fans and journalists from all over, trying to get a sense of the overall push for the event had been like in their area. While some major market dwellers in New York and Los Angeles said they had been hit with commercials, billboards and the like, those outside of the US's major metropolises had seen virtually nothing, although a few fans told me that they had seen a curious amount of commercials during the Price is Right. Unfortunately for CBS and EliteXC, people outside NYC and LA have television sets (a lot of them, in fact), and the sorts who dote on Bob Barker and Drew Carey are not a demographic priority.

...

And even though we're amidst a vacancy of popular stick and ball sports, boxing doesn't have a season. However, because major fights are generally spread out, that should not be a difficult obstacle to bypass. Still, CBS and Pro Elite put this card head-to-head with the biggest boxing bout of the year, with Antonio Margarito and Miguel Cotto meeting in a classic Mexico vs. Puerto Rico clash.

Even though their product was free, general combat sports fans and probably some more MMA-preferrable fans were willing to pony up 50 bones for what turned out to be an absolute classic boxing fight. Furthermore, bars know what sells, and it's certainly not programming content that people could sit on their couch and watch for free.

Worse yet, while the Mexican and Puerto Rican anthems were belted out while the live east coast telecast of “Saturday Night Fights” went off the air, EliteXC started up on the west coast (see: major boxing hotbed and where the Mexican Margarito supporters are) amidst Margarito and Cotto already smashing one another, meaning pacific time viewers had already left to their favorite watering hole, or would've sooner died than changed their channel at home. EliteXC will never be able to escape the fact that Spike TV and Zuffa can do damage to their product at the drop of the hat with marathon replays of “Ultimate Knockouts” compilations. However, with no other summer boxing blockbusters in sight, CBS and EliteXC just had to go head-to-head with an instant pantheon-level prizefight?

I also agree with Breen that the current ratings aren't ringing the death knell for EliteXC. The truth of the matter is that CBS and ProElite did make good on their promise to simplify, improve and make more efficient this event's broadcast. On that level, it was a massive improvement. If they can carry that professionalism over to October's show - one where presumably more advertising and star power will draw more viewers - then EliteXC has a real shot at redemption.

But for now, let's not forget that there are simple explanations for this show's mediocre pull that aren't isolated to what went on in the cage in Stockton on Saturday.

16 comments  |  1 recs

UPDATED: EliteXC Pulls Mediocre Numbers, Down 40% from CBS Debut

I really loved last night's show live, and so did almost everyone else.  Unforunately, it looks like nobody saw it:

That airing back on May 31, 2008 scored 4.3 million viewers and a 1.9/6 among 18-49 year olds and since the Kimbo Slice bout for that airing aired past primetime (11p) the most viewed portion wasn’t included. But lacking any Kimbo anticipation, last night’s fights pulled a mere 2.62 million and a 1.0/3 from 9pm-11pm.

There's no way around this:  It is a terrible rating.  They won't be cancelled because the next show is Kimbo and Gina, but this is going to do a lot of damage to MMA's reputation at the networks in the long run.

Dana White is coming away from this whole thing smelling like roses.  People bashed him for not getting this CBS deal, but he was clearly right not to put all the power in the hands of people that know nothing about MMA.  I have a feeling this rating may hurt the UFC's chances at getting a deal. 

*** UPDATE #1 ***
I've changed the title, because apparently people at ProElite expected to get a number this bad, so it wasn't really an unexpected disaster or anything. The bottom line, though, is that the second MMA show on broadcast television in America did a bad number. You can set expectations wherever you want, the number is still bad.

*** UPDATE #2 ***
From MMAPayout.com:

Dave Meltzer of the Wrestling Observer Newsletter is reporting the show got a 1.9 rating on the overnight. When all markets finish reporting in the numbers should bump up a tenth or two for either a 2.0 or a 2.1. This would fall into the low 2 range that MMAPayout.com felt would be a decent number for the show, per our show preview.

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Snapshot of the Day: Gina Carano Gives It to Tonya Evinger

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Esther Lin has a great gallery of photos from the "EliteXC: Unfinished Business" weigh-ins at Combat Lifestyle.

HT: 5oz of Pain

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EliteXC Can't Catch a Break

EliteXC's second CBS show featured a lot of excitement and really delivered the honest to goodness MMA goods despite a lack of big names and strong promotion.  But after last weekend's Ultimate Fight Night/Affliction double feature EXC still felt a little flat.  There was a definite minor league feeling to things and the crowd hurt the feel of the show badly at times with booing of exciting fights.

Sure, EXC crowned champions but after last weekend are names like Jake Shields, Antonio Silva and Robbie Lawler carrying the same kind of weight of an Anderson Silva or Fedor?  There was so much of an inescapable feeling of "this is not the best that mixed martial arts has to offer" to the show that despite its successes the show couldn't boost the promotion.

And now to top it off Miguel Cotto and Antonio Margarito put on an absolute boxing classic.  The fight was so good that I will not talk about who won in hopes that you'll make sure you see it.  It was stand up and yell at your TV good.

So once again EliteXC is overshadowed in the fight world.  It now sits as the fourth best combat sports event of the past 7 days.  We'll see where the ratings come in, but at this point the only thing that could really make them feel good are better than expected numbers for a show that they never seemed to put their promotional muscle behind.

I guess now it's just "Go get 'em in October boys."  But they're going to need a hell of a show in such a loaded month to gain any traction in a landscape that got a whole lot rougher with the emergence of Affliction.

20 comments  |  0 recs

What Was Missing From EliteXC? Gary Shaw

Gary-shaw-kimbo-slice_mediumWe've been scratching our heads wondering why tonight's Elite XC show had so little heat buiding up to the fights. And we've considered the implications of Elite XC representing the sport aspect of MMA as opposed to the spectacle.

But Steve Cofield puts something together that I had missed. It's pretty obvious why there was less heat for this event than even for the last Showtime Elite XC show -- Gary Shaw was gone:

The media is looking for compelling conversation, controversy and some trash talk to hook readers, listeners and viewers. Vanilla fighters and unassuming promoters can be a deadly combo in pitching a fight. Robbie Lawler and Scott Smith are good fighters with crowd pleasing styles, but they just don't talk a good game. Someone needed to step up and pitch the second EliteXC card on CBS. It hasn't happened. Fightopinion.com tracks fight stories and says EliteXC has gotten little coverage.

I can't gauge the interest of the average fight fan from a keyboard but I can do it on the air doing a radio show. The Kimbo Slice fight card was a very good talk radio topic. This EliteXC fight card has garnered almost no interest on the phones. And it's not just radio, the media turnout in Stockton has been very light according to a surprised Ariel Helwani from MMARated.com:

"Surprised that there was virtually no media there. Seriously, maybe a handful...tops. Surprised that the Shaws (Gary and Jared) were no where to be found.
Surprised that no one is willing to give a straight answer as to where they are hiding. Trust me, I asked around. Surprised that there appears to be zero excitement online, around town or even in the local media for this event."
Shaw did a great job as the front man. I'd say he was fired but we still don't have a clear answer of where he is or what his role is now.

I have to say I agree. It was a decent night of fights, but there was something missing and frankly I found myself at a loss for things to talk about. If Elite XC had the UFC roster and could put on fights featuring the absolute best on the planet instead of one or two top ten fighters, then they could get by without the spectacle, but as is, they're just a second tier sporting organization and they need that aura of controversy that Shaw, the old carnival barker can generate.

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EliteXC "Unfinished Business" LIVE Results and Updates

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I am at my seat in Stockton, California, and I'm ready to bring everyone live results of this show.  Feel free to join in in the comments, I don't know anyone here and need people to talk to!  It's hot as hell in Stockton, as usual, so I'm just happy to be inside right now.  Building is mostly empty at this point, but it's very early.

Note:  The internet quality here is not great.  It's going in and out, so if there are any delays, that's why!

The first fight is getting going, and it's Drew Montgomery vs. Brandon Tarn.

Drew Montgomery vs. Brandon Tarn:  

Round 1:  Tarn is going for the takedown hard, eats a knee, but gets him down.  He can't do any damage or pass.  Tarn lands a couple good shots now, it doesn't look like Montgomery has any ground game.  Tarn hits some decent body shots, and avoids a triangle.  Montgomery finally stands up and just unloads on Tarn with knees and punches, but he gets taken down again.  Tarn doesn't do much with it.  It's hard to see from here what's going on on the ground and they have no video feed.  Bloody Elbow scores the round 10-9 for Brandon Tarn.

Round 2:  This round starts out the same.  Montgomery hits a couple nice shots, but stupidly gets too close with a knee and gets taken down.  Tarn is doing enough to avoid being stood up, but not  by much.  Montgomery is cut now.  Ref stands it up.  Good left hook from Montgomery, and he comes too far in and gets taken down again.  Tarn is a one trick pony but Montgomery can't stop it.  Ref stands it up again, and the round ends.  Bloody Elbow Scores the round 10-9 for Brandon Tarn.

Note:  The building is about 30% full.  I can't believe how many fights there are tonight.  I shouldn't have drank so much last night.

Round 3:  Round starts with Tarn taking him down immediately, ugh.  Big John is here!  Ref stops it, crowd hates Tarn.  Tarn gets another takedown, but Montgomery sweeps out of guard and into mount!  He starts unloading a ton of punches and gets the back for a choke...but he loses it!  Tarn now back on top, but the ref stands them up for blood reasons because Tarn is now bleeding like a madman.  Now they are reset again mid-ring with Tarn still on top.  Montgomery needs to get out or he's gonna lose the fight.  And all of a sudden...it's over.  The fight has been stopped due to blood stoppage!  Drew Montgomery wins via blood stoppage at 4:22 of the third round.

That fight was awful for 2 rounds, but that third round really turned it around.  Montgomery got real lucky, he would have won the round 10-9 and lost the fight. 

Carl Seumantafa vs. Mike Cook:  I am definitely referring to him as "Carl" for this play by play.

Round 1:  Carl gets an early takedown, but gets swept immediately.  They fight to their feet, and Mike Cook tries to suplex him, but he can't get him up, and Carl falls straight onto Cook's sternum, knocking the wind out of him!  Carl follows up with some bad looking shots on the ground to finish it.  Carl Seumentafa wins via TKO at 3:39 of the first round.

The Showtime show is starting real soon.  Building seems about 70% full.  I might fall asleep at the press table with all the delays.  Seriously, the lack of free food is a true tragedy.  I bought a shitty Southwest Chicken wrap and it cost $8.50!

Bryan Caraway vs. Wilson Reis:

Round 1:  I'm really looking forward to seeing Reis work.  Very good punches from Caraway early.  Reis gets him down, which is bad news from Carawat.  Reis passes to half guard, and now to side mount, but gives up position to do some damage.  Reis gets mount, but Caraway escapes.  Very impressive!  Caraway is clearly better standing.  Reis gets another takedown, and works his pass game again...and gets nount.  He rains down some punches, and takes Caraway's back, but Caraway bucks him off!  Caraway hits some nice shots, but Reis gets him down again as the round ends.  Bloody Elbow scores the round 10-9 for Wilson Reis.

Round 2:  Reis gets a takedown immediately, but Caraway scrambles up and nails him with a knee!  He flurries, but Reis survives and gets a takedown.  Wow, this is real good.  Reis passes to side mount, but Caraway works back to guard.  Reis passes to the side again, his passing game is great.  Dumbass crowd is booing.  Caraway scrambles up, and stops a takedown, ending up on top this time.  Reis pulls off an incredible sweep to the top, and ends the round with a nice knee.  Very close, but Bloody Elbow scores the bout 10-9 for Bryan Caraway.

Round 3:  This fight is actually excellent so far.  Caraway rocks him a bit early, but Reis survives again and gets a takedown.  Reis moves to mount, but Caraway sweeps!  We're back standing, and Reis gets him down again.  Reis cannot hold position, and tries a diving punch which costs him top position.  The round ends, and man, that was close.  Bloody Elbow scores the round 10-9 for Wilson Reis.

Bloody Elbow Score:  29-28 for Wilson Reis.

Official Score:  30-27 for Wilson Reis (unanimous).

Rafael Feijao vs. Travais Galbraith:  The place is probably like 85% full.  God, the dude next to me is the most annoying tool.

Round 1:  I think this may go quickly.  They clinch quickly, and Galbraith is throwing some knees.  Feijao eventually gets the thai clinch and unloads, and man, he beat him up bad.  Galbraith tried to hang in there, but Feijao was too much.  Good showing, but he did not come across as an elite 205 guy, even with the dominating win.  Rafael Feijao wins via TKO at 3:01 of the first round.

Antonio Silva vs. Justin Eiliers:  Yes, this is actually a title fight.  Silva had a decent reaction but not a star reaction.

Round 1:  Jesus, Antonio Silva has a gigantic head.  Even bigger than you can imagine.  Silva wins the early exchanges, but Eilers at least looks competent.  Good left hook from Eilers, and another.  Silva gets way in there with a takedown and takes Eilers' back.  Silva just loses a point for the back of the head.  Eilers is doing a good job surviving, but it seems like a matter of time.  I will say that he has better punches than Silva.  Eilers is actually landing some shots here.  If he can land a good shot he can steal the round, but he doesn't, so Bloody Elbow scores the round a 9-9 draw.  Eilers has to be confident after that round.  He hung in there and survived, and Silva does not have the best cardio usually.

Round 2:  After all that I look like a jackass, because Silva just mauled him to win early in the second round.  Antonio Silva wins via TKO at (?) of the second round.  This is a big night for the Brazilians so far.  They hand Silva the meaningless belt.

We're waiting for the show to start now.  They name a bunch of fighters in the arena:  Phil Baroni (mild boos), Frank Shamrock (decent cheers), Kimbo Slice (loud and mixed), Gina Carano (loud cheers).  Kimbo is going to be a very controversial figure from now on after his last showing.

There are all sorts of internet problems right now.  Poor Dave can't even get on.

This show is definitely not sold out.  90% with comps.  

You know, I was bashing LA and the Affliction people last week, but that crowd was pure class compared to this one.

Alright, we're starting.  Pretty cool entrance video.  I should say that I do not see the Shaws here, which means Adam Swift was completely on the money when he got that scoop a little while ago.

Cristiane Cyborg vs. Shayna Baszler:  Great choice to start the show with the women.  I think it'll get eyes on the show immediately.  Gina gets a gigantic pop.  Hey!~  Tara Larosa is now sitting next to me.

Round 1:  Cyborg comes out aggressive, and Shayna gets her down.  Cyborg avoids the leglock.  These 3 minute rounds are ridiculous.  Bloody Elbow scores the round 10-9 Baszler for the leglock, but it was very close.

Round 2:  Cyborh comes out strong with strikes in the clinch, and Baszler can't get her down.  Cyborg knocks Baszler down, and she celebrates like she won, but it's not over!!!!  She comes back and gets back to work, but the break is not enough for Shayna, she is still hurt, and Cyborg finishes her.  WOW.  Crowd chants for Gina.  That's money.  Cyborg wina via KO at 2:48 of the second round.  

God that is going to be an easy fight to sell.  Crazy woman with huge arms called "Cyborg" vs. Gina Carano.  By the way, I think Gina will beat the crap out of her.  She won by overwhelming Shayna, but her technical striking was not much.  She really did come off like a female Wanderlei Silva.

Nick Thompson vs. Jake Shields:

Round 1:  Josh Barnett is in Shelds' corner.  Body kick from Shields early, and wow he is already in mount.  WOW.  Shields gets a guillotine, and it's over.  Jake Shields wins via submission at of the first round.  Dominating performance, and it has to be very disappointing for Nick Thompson.    Jake Shields is the champion now.

God the internet sucks here.

Thomas Denny vs. Nick Diaz:  Crowd loves Nick Diaz.  It's hard to describe how perfect it is that Nick Diaz is from Stockton.  Big star reaction, not like Urijah Faber, but VERY big.  The biggest pop of Diaz's career, for sure.  If Diaz knocks him out they have a gigantic star.

Round 1:  Denny hangs in there early.  He lands some shots, and Nick asks him if that's all he's got.  Nick goes for a kimura and then an armbar, but Denny escapes.  Nick is landing good shots, but Denny is hanging tough. Denny lands a bunch of shots, but Nick Diaz flurries at the end.  Closer round than you'd think, but Diaz won it.  Bloody Elbow scores the round 10-9 for Diaz.

Round 2:  Nick Diaz comes out right away swinging, and knocks him out very quickly.  Nick Diaz came off like a total superstar on this show.  The crowd is going batshit insane.  Diaz does not look like he can beat any high end fighters at that weight, but he was good enough tonight.  Diaz wins via KO at 0:30 of the second round.

This show is awesome so far.

Robbie Lawler vs. Scott Smith:  

Round 1:  Scott Smith is local and a big crowd favorite.  A great slugfest would make this an amazing show.  I guess a big question is whether Smith is healthy.  Lots of circling early, feeling out process.  Real good exchanges standing, but nothing really landing.  Both men trying to land out of the clinch.  Lawler with some good combinations, but Smith starts landing some serious shots as the round ends.  Really good round, gotta give it to Smith for his shots at the end, but it was very close.  Bloody Elbow scores the round 10-9 for Scott Smith.  Excellent round, booing retards can piss off.

Round 2:  Just an amazing start.  Lawler with a superman punch combo, but Smith responds with great shots and then elbows.  I think he cut Lawler.  Lawler winning in the clinch.  Lawler destroys him with knees out of the clinch, Smith tries to fight, but Lawler viciously puts him away.  Lawler wins and retains his Middleweight Championship via TKO at 2:35 of the second round.  This was good while it lasted, a little disappointing that it was so short.  Great win for Lawler, but I still think he'd get killed by Anderson Silva.

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The Importance of EliteXC on CBS Tonight

Before Elite XC's debut show on CBS I was legitimately nervous.  I woke up on May 31 thinking about how extremely important the coming evening was for the sport that I love.  Unfortunately I went to bed nervous that night as well, worried about how harmful the Kimbo Slice/James Thompson fight would be.

Regardless of the main event though, the show had to be considered a success.  Viewership was great and bottom line...that is all that really matters in network TV.  Obviously Elite XC was ready to push its next show through the roof.  The decision was made to come back with a July show knowing it meant no Gina Carano and no Kimbo Slice.

Due to the war between Robbie Lawler and Scott Smith ending in a no contest and both men being willing to make the fairly quick turnaround for a rematch EXC had a ready-made main event.  The big problem though is that Lawler/Smith, while a very entertaining scrap, was probably the third most memorable fight of the first CBS show behind Carano/Young and Slice/Thompson.  Also, Lawler and Smith don't have the explosive personality of Slice or the mainstream appeal of Carano.

The plan seemed to be to throw Nick Diaz on the show to represent a bit more of the personality side of things.  But, where has the marketing push been with him?  Why haven't I seen more from EXC pushing the "bad boy of MMA" image?  American sports fans love to follow the bad boy, and seeing him against a guy who is able to trade verbal jabs with him in the pre-fight interviews should have made for great commercial appeal.  Jake Shields and Nick Thompson isn't exactly a casual fan dream fight and if it turns into Shields working positional control for 5 rounds it could kill the broadcast.  And say what you will about Shayna Baszler vs. Cristiane Cyborg and how good of a fight it could be, but a women's fight can't carry the marketing of a show.

Now it seems like the Shaws can't be bothered to be at the press conference...you know...the final chance for a real marketing push.

So tonight we get to see how MMA does on network TV with no "mainstream stars" and a very weak marketing push.  Is MMA a strong enough draw as a sport alone that it can pull meaningful ratings without the UFC banner or a Kimbo slice level attraction for the curious?

That is what is important about EXC on CBS tonight.  We're getting a glimpse at where the sport of MMA sits in the minds of the American public.  And if this show fails, we could easily be seeing the beginning of the EXC's fall from a level that they managed to climb to a mere 57 days earlier.

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EliteXC: CBS Saturday Night Fights Weigh In


Frank Trigg breaks down the three EliteXC title fights after the jump.

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EliteXC: Unfinished Business, CBS Saturday Night Fights BloodyElbow.com Staff Predictions

 

BloodyElbow.com Staff Predictions for “EliteXC: Unfinished Business” CBS Saturday Night Fights

Saturday, July 26th
Stockton
, California

Scheduled to air on CBS:

Robbie Lawler vs. Scott Smith



Luke Thomas: While Lawler is clearly the better technician, Smith is incredibly difficult to finish. And Lawler, over the course of a fight, tends to lose focus. I smell upset. Smith, TKO, round 4.

Kid Nate: Lawler was wearing down Smith in the last fight and this time he will finish him. Lawler by TKO in 2.

Brent Brookhouse: I'm playing it safe and picking Lawler but Smith can catch him at any point.  I think this will be even better than the first fight though as both guys took solid shots from the other without going out.  So both guys will play it gutsy and bang again.  Lawler by TKO in Round 3.

Mike Rome: I'm going to pick the upset here.  By the end of the last fight it seemed like Smith had figured Lawler out, and I think that if the fight continued Smith was going to win it.  I suspect this should be pretty exciting, both guys know what they are being put out there to do.  Smith via TKO, round 4.

Nick Thomas: I picked Scott in their first fight and I'm going to stick with my upset pick. Mainly because of Scott's highlight real KO of Kyle Noke. Upset #1 - Scott Smith by TKO.

Chris Nelson: Given the platform and how much both guys have riding on this fight, I don't see how it could go much different from the first go. Smith lasts a little longer this time (provided no eye poking) but ultimately succumbs to Lawler's bombs and ridiculous conditioning. Lawler by TKO, round 4.


Jake Shields vs. Nick Thompson



Luke Thomas: Nothing would make me happier than to see Thompson’s hard work and sacrifice pay off. The problem is that the Monteiro fight showed us that positional control is not Thompson’s strong suit. It is, however, that of Shields. Shields by submission.

Kid Nate: Shields has the takedown and ground control to dominate and punish Thompson. This one won't last more than one round. Shields by TKO in 1.

Brent Brookhouse: Thompson's win over Alvarez looks a whole lot better after seeing how great Alvarez was in the DREAM tourney.  I think this ends up being close but I'll take Shields by TKO late in the fight.

Mike Rome: I like Thompson, but I don't think he's ready for Shields.  I don't think Shields is that great, I just think he's about where Thompson will be in two years.  I suspect Shields will choke him out after dominating the ground.  Shields via submission, round 2.

Nick Thomas: Time for Shields to prove himself and earn his WW title. Thompson is on a huge win streak but I still think Shields can pull it off. Shields by TKO.

Chris Nelson: Thompson's got a great story and has added some impressive wins to his resume in his 2+ year unbeaten run (especially his comeback at the last Sengoku against Michael Costa), but he's just not on Shields' level in terms of strength or wrestling acumen. Shields by submission, round 2.


Nick Diaz vs. Thomas Denny



Luke Thomas: While Diaz has looked languid in his last few outings, he can still put away most. I can’t see any area where Denny would give him problems. Aina did, but he’s much more explosive than Denny. Diaz by unanimous decision.

Kid Nate: Diaz better win this one impressively. Diaz by TKO in 2.

Brent Brookhouse: I think Denny wins the first round, but if Diaz can keep from getting cut I think he comes back to win rounds 2 and 3.  Nick Diaz by decision.

Mike Rome: Kind of a joke fight here.  Nick has not looked good at all lately, but I can't see him losing this.  He's also actually training instead of doing nonstop insane interviews, so I think he'll win.  Diaz via KO, round 2.

Nick Thomas: Will this fight back fire on Diaz? Don't think so. Diaz by decision.

Chris Nelson: Nick hasn't looked right since the Gomi win was overturned, but there's no way he's losing to a man with hair like that, especially in Stockton. Diaz by stoned fury, round 2.


Shayna Baszler vs. Cristiane Cyborg



Luke Thomas: Baszler has the advantage in submissions, but Cyborg is far more the aggressor and actually has decent wrestling. Before Baszler can put her away, I suspect Cyborg might put her to sleep. Cyborg, by TKO, round 2.

Kid Nate: Cyborg by gruesome beatdown in 2.

Brent Brookhouse: It's been a while since Cyborg has had a fight so I'm going to go with Baszler here.  Shayna Baszler by submission.

Mike Rome: This is a sleeper for fight of the night.  I think Baszler is just too good though and will eventually get Cyborg down and submit her, but not before taking a big time beating .  Baszler via submission, round 3.

Nick Thomas: I've enjoyed all the women fights so far and I think this one's going to be a close battle. On the ground, you got to give it to Baszler. So I'm going to go with Baszler by submission.

Chris Nelson: Cyborg by KO, round 1.

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