Let's go to the Bud Light instant replay...

UPDATE: Bristol picked up the story on the 1am edition...

I'll be live blogging the fights tonight, starting at 10pm eastern. Check back for coverage and commentary.

Remember don't post the results of the undercard fights in the comments as many of us will be wanting to enjoy the fights on the PPV broadcast. If you can't wait, Sherdog has the undercard results in real time.

Here we go, the ppv broadcast has begun. Rogan and Goldberg are hyping the top two fights.


Fight Card

Dong Hyun Kim vs. Matt Brown
The Stun Gun is promising to put on a show with striking and knees. Matt Brown comes out to "Devil Came Down to Georgia" -- pandering to the Atlanta crowd.  Kim comes out to Red Hot Chili Peppers covering Stevie Wonder. Mario Yamasaki is the ref -- could be brutal, Mario isn't known for quick stoppages.

Round 1. Brown gets thai plum but Kim is quick to get a takedown and gets Brown's back. Brown escapes. Kim climbs his back and goes for RNC -- almost has the choke but Brown escapes. Kim jumps on his back again. Kim is on Brown's back and working for a kimura. Brown reverses, in Kim's guard.  Back to their feet. Kim connects with a left. Brown misses a spinning back fist but avoids a trip takedown. Kim going for a double leg, Brown fights it off, throws a knee. Kim goes for a trip, lands on the bottom, Brown working for a side headlock choke. Kim gets his back again, working for a kimura! I score that one 10-9 for Kim.

Round 2. Kim breathing heavy. Brown landing leg kicks and a body shot. Kim goes for a flying knee, misses, lands on his back. Brown landing knees in the thai plum, Kim looks tired. Kim fails another takedown attempt. Brown stuffs ANOTHER takedown! Brown on top, throwing punches. They stand and trade in the clinch. Brown back in Kim's guard. Brown escapes and eats an upkick. Brown lands a standing spinning punch! Very cool move. Walks away from Kim to force a standup. Brown landing knees in the clinch. Kim misses a big left and eats several shots. Another taketown by Brown, working for an armtriangle. I'd score this one 10-8 for Brown.

Round 3.  Brown comes out excited. Kim looks flat. Brown forgot his mouthpiece, gets a break. Brown misses a superman punch. Kim gets a takedown and side control. Goes for knee on stomach and Brown escapes and lands some knees to the body in the clinch. Has Kim up against the cage. Kim tries for a throw, Brown stuffs it and works for a single leg of his own. Brown landing body punches up against the cage. Kim lands an elbow to the face. Brown uses a whizzer to stuff a throw! Nicely done. Kim gets a takedown, Brown gets guard. Brown defending well. Kim lands a big elbow. Another. Brown is cut. I score it 10-9 for Kim. This one could go either way. I call it for Kim but we'll see what the judges say.

Kim wins the split decision. Tough break for Brown. The crowd is booing. Kim apologizes to the crowd.

Martin Kampmann vs. Nathan Marquardt
If Kampmann wins he's in line for a quick title shot, Marquardt probably has to win another after this. Greg Jackson in Marquardt's corner.

Round 1. Nate with a quick right. Kampmann with a kick that's blocked. Kampmann catches him with a right. Nate lands a big kick drops Kampmann. Nate tries to finish him. Landing tough shots up against the fence. Huge uppercut. Marquardt!!!!! Punishes Kampmann with a very quick demolition. That was an asswhipping. People won't call him boring anymore. 1:22 TKO Marquardt.

Dan Henderson vs. Rousimar Palhares
Palhares comes in to LL Cool J's new single! Goldberg is in on the song promo too. Murilo Bustamante is in his corner. Bustamante of course has faced Henderson a couple of times. Henderson has Matt Lindland and Soukodjou in his corner.Big Boi in the crowd.

Round 1.  Henderson is stalking Rousimar. Palhares shoots, gets stuffed and eats a vicious right. Some ground and pound by Dan. Palhares is shooting from a distance and getting stuffed. Not much of a game plan for the Brazilian. Body kick by Palhares, eats a right. Palhares misses a big high kick and shoots again. Henderson clearly respects Palhares on the ground, he's being totally defensive. Jabs by Rousimar. They trade in the clinch and Henderson lights him up. Palhares fires back with a series of kicks, landing a nice body kick. Henderson with a nice jab. Palhares gets a single leg! Henderson almost gets some kind of head scissors, now Rousimar has side mount. Henderson gets 1/2 guard. Palhares working for a knee bar as the round ends. Tough round to score. I'd give it to Henderson 10-9, but could see it going the other way.

Round 2. They're feeling each other out. Palhares shoots and is stuffed again. Palhares with a huge slam! Henderson in guard. Palhares throwing and working to pass guard. Palhares has a heel hook! Henderson escapes! Very close! Henderson stuffs a shoot and is working a choke, has Palhares in front headlock. They stand, Henderson throwing uppercuts. Palhares shoots Henderson stuffs it, ends up in Palhares' guard, landing shots from the top. Palhares grabs a leg, throws his hips around, nothing. Henderson elbows from the top. Dean stands them up. Henderson lands a right. They trade missed kicks as the time runs out. Hard round to score. I'll give it to Palhares for the heel hook and the slam 10-9.

Round 3. Henderson jabbing to open the round. Palhares shoots, gets stuffed and lands a heel kick. Rousimar lands a jab, misses with a kick that looks bad. Henderson jabbing. Another sprawl by Dan. Henderson with 2 rights. Palhares firing back. Palhares with a low kick. Henderson seems to be limping a bit from the heel hook. Henderson lands a left. Crowd is booing. Henderson throwing haymakers. Palhares has no idea what to do, a desperate shoot. Henderson stuffs it, gets side mount, stands up. Henderson drops him with a right and Rousimar gets a leg! Working for a heel hook, but Henderson escapes. Palhares with another single leg attempt that gets stuffed. Henderson lands a HUGE right to a grounded Palhares. Henderson 10-9. I call it for Dan and so do the commenters.

They're hyping Couture vs Lesnar with Randy at ringside. And Men's Fitness magazine which is featuring Forrest Griffin.

Tim Boetsch vs Michael Patt
Here's one from the undercard. Always a good sign for an action packed fight. Herb Dean is the ref.

Round 1.  They trade in the center. Boetsch with a right. Patt is landing some decent shots. Patt rolls a punch with his shoulder, nice. Boetsche with a vicious right! Drops him and follows up with a brutal GnP assault. Herb Dean stops it. Nice TKO finish by Boetsch in 2:03.

Rich Franklin vs. Matt Hamill
Here we go with the battle of the hometown pals. Hamill comes out to "Tuesday's Gone" by Lynyrd Skynyrd. Franklin comes out to AC/DC's "For Those About to Rock". Battle of the classic rock fans. I score the music war for Hamill. If Franklin had come out to some Bon Scott AC/DC, I'd have given it to him. Franklin looks intense as he comes into the ring. Matt Hume and Jorge Gurgel in his corner.

Round 1.  Franklin landing some leg kicks. Hamill limping already from the leg kicks. Hamill lands a right hand. Hamill with an uppercut. Franklin with more leg kicks. Rich is picking him apart a bit here but no serious damage. Franklin is cut. Franklin with more leg kicks. Hamill misses another superman punch. Hamill with a takedown to end the round. Franklin working for an armbar, Hamill escapes. Franklin with a knee to the face. Hamill cut on the right eye. I score it 10-9 Franklin.

Round 2.  Franklin's cut is pretty bad. They high five to start the round. Hamill tries for a single off a leg kick. Nothing. Franklin scoring with punches and kicks, Hamill reaching for a take down. Not good. Yamasaki calls time to look at Franklin's cut. It's ugly. They restart. Hamill dives for a leg, Franklin escapes and scores with a combination. Hamill trying to dirty box, Franklin backs out. Franklin landing kicks to the head. If Hamill keeps leaning in, he'll get KO'd. Hamill takes a nut shot. Time out. Good exchange. Franklin landing nice punch/kick combos, Hamill in there throwing but getting the worst of it. Franklin with a kick to the body. Franklin landing leg kicks, Hamill working some dirty boxing. Franklin busting him up with punch/kick combos and leg kicks. Hamill grabbing for a single then into the dirty boxing but Franklin escapes and fires back. Franklin with a knee, Hamill grabs for a single, can't get it. 10-9 Franklin.

Round 3. Franklin with a body kick and a knee to the body. A liver kick finishes Hamill! Good performance by Rich Franklin. We'll see how he handles a contender at 205.

Chuck Liddell vs. Rashad Evans
72% of online voters are picking Chuck Liddell. Everyone here where I'm at is picking Chuck. They're showing Chuck's beat downs of Tito and Randy over and over with a little sprinkle of Sean Salmon thrown in. Who's the mug shot on Rashad's t-shirt? Greg Jackson, Keith Jardine, Nate Marquardt and Mike Van Arsdale in Evans' corner. They turn out the lights for Liddell. The Iceman is coming out to DMX. John Hackeman coming out with Liddell. Rashad is dancing to Chuck's entrance music.Buffer is really manic for this one. Herb Dean is the ref. Cecil Peoples is one of the refs. Rashad is doing a GSP nipple pinch -- is this some Greg Jackson technique? The crowd in Atlanta is booing Rashad.  Chuck is towering over Rashad at the staredown.

Round 1. Rashad is looking a little spastic here. He's giving up a lot of reach to Liddell. They're feeling each other out, Rashad is reluctant to engage. Liddell is hunting Evans, circling. Rashad lands a right hook. Liddel with a right that scores. Rashad with a body kick. Liddell charges, Evans dodges. Evans with a jab. Evans with a leg kick. Evans is taunting Chuck with stance changes. Chuck lands a right and a left off an Evans leg kick. Chuck is cornering Rashad, Evans circles away. Chuck throws a kick as the round ends. Hard to score. I score it 10-10.

Round 2. Liddell is cornering Evans, they're exchanging. Evans is landing some small shots. Chuck with a right. Liddell with a combo. Evans with a left hook. EVANS KOS LIDDELL WITH A RIGHT HAND. Oh my god. That was a kill shot!!!!!

RASHAD EVANS KNOCKS OUT CHUCK LIDDELL!!!!

Well done Rashad!

Rashad's t-shirt is Bill Gates' mugshot -- an Alberquerque thing.

Jason MacDonald vs Jason Lambert
Nice to see them running more undercard fights.

Round 1. MacDonald gets a takedown, survives a guillotine, now has Lambert up against the fence in Lambert's guard. Forgive me if I'm doing a half-ass job of this fight. I'm still in shock. MacDonald is trying to work some ground and pound but Lambert has a good defence from guard. Lambert has a TIGHT guillotine. MacDonald is saved by the bell. I think Lambert could've finished that if not for the end of the round.

Round 2. Mean exchange of punches to start the round. Lambert may be getting the better of it, MacDonald goes for a double leg and lands in Lambert's 1/2 guard. MacDonald had mount, works for a guillotine, Lambert escapes and gives up his back. MacDonald gets a body triangle and finishes Lambert with a rear naked choke.

MMA Payout is projecting big numbers for UFC 88 -- 590,000 ppv orders -- based on the number of viewers for the UFC Countdown program earlier this week -- 701,000.

That is the second highest rated Countdown special of the year, trailing only Countdown to UFC 83, which drew 782,000 viewers. This was only the second countdown special all year to break the 700,000 level and suggests a strong PPV performance for this card.

Zach Arnold comments:

590,000 PPV buys for this weekend’s show? If that is the case for a show that has received little or no media coverage, then UFC is truly unstoppable and everyone else in the business should get out now and cut their losses.

MMA Payout's Robert Joyner hedges his bets a bit at Fight Opinion:

The predictor thing is a work in progress to be sure, Zach. We went back and did the data for the past year and a half and it gave us between 8 and 10% margin of error. Not the best but it was scarily accurate at times. My gut tells me it will be closer to the 475k (500 maybe) figure mentioned in my UFC 88 preview. tbh, I was surprised at the strong number the Countdown show did.

I've commented previously on the lack of buzz for this show so it will be a very good sign indeed for UFC's upcoming big money run of events starting with UFC 91.

Our own Mike Rome comments:

The online hype is all Randy Couture, but Chuck Liddell is still a huge mainstream draw, as evidenced by the countdown rating. Rashad has also surprised headlining before.

Chuck was on sportscenter today too, I think this one will do 500-550, which is still a great number. 590 seems very high.

Light Heavyweight.: Chuck Liddell - 204lbs  vs. Rashad Evans - 205lbs
Light Heavyweight: Rich Franklin - 204.5 lbs vs. Matt Hamill - 205lbs
Middleweight: Dan Henderson - 185lbs vs. Rousimar Palhares - 184.5lbs
Middleweight: Nate Marquardt - 185lbs vs. Martin Kampmann - 184.5lbs
Lightweight: Thiago Tavares - 155lbs  vs. Kurt Pellegrino - 156lbs
Light Heavyweight: Tim Boetsch - 205lbs vs. Mike Patt - 205lbs
Welterweight: Matt Brown - 170lbs vs. Dong Hyun Kim - 170lbs*
Middleweight: Jason Lambert - 185lbs  vs. Jason MacDonald - 185lbs
Welterweight: Roan Carneiro - 170lbs  vs. Ryo Chonan - 170lbs

*Brown vs. Kim will be first fight on the PPV broadcast.

From UFC.com

A last-minute back injury has forced welterweight contender Karo Parisyan to withdraw from his UFC 88 bout with Yoshiyuki Yoshida. Saturday’s UFC 88 card (pay-per-view 10pm ET / 7pm PT) will continue with nine bouts

Fightlinker is already howling:

You always give fighters the benefit of the doubt, but with all that talk of Karo’s serious anxiety disorder over the past few weeks, am I being callous to suggest that we’re not getting the entire story here?

If Karo isn't really injured, this could be all she wrote for one of my all-time favorite fighters.

UPDATE:  Luke has pointed out to me that speculating that the reasons for Karo pulling out of the fight without any evidence that it's NOT a back injury is irresponsible and the reason Dana hates blogs. He's right and I feel pretty guilty, especially since Karo is absolutely one of my favorite fighters.

Sherdog is reporting that they've confirmed that it IS a back injury:

Randy Couture, one of Parisyan’s primary training partners, said the fighter “put his back out” some time between Thursday evening and Friday morning and was having difficulty walking.

On the other hand, Steve Cofield is adding to the speculation that there's more to it than that, based on his recent interview with Karo, Cofield says he's "not surprised" that Karo pulled out of the fight.

BloodyElbow.com UFC 88: Breakthrough Staff Predictions

MAIN CARD:

Chuck Liddell vs. Rashad Evans

Luke Thomas: As much as Evans’ newfound striking ability is touted, he has resorted to wrestling any time and everytime wrestling was required. He doesn’t handle pressure well, particularly in the stand-up. The problem is that Liddell won’t concede the takedown to Evans, thereby disrupting his rhythm and potentially rattling his stability. While I’m not convinced Liddell will finish him, I am very confident Liddell will do at least enough damage on the feet to win a decision. Liddell by unanimous decision.

Nate Wilcox: The only question in my mind about this fight is whether or not Chuck Liddell is going to start showing his age. The Chuck Liddell that beat Randy Couture and Tito twice each would KO Evans in 2 rounds tops. Until I see evidence that Chuck is losing more than a step, I'm going to stick with the Iceman. Liddell by KO.

Brent Brookhouse: It's been said by pretty much everyone but Rashad is the kind of guy that Chuck usually feasts on.  I don't trust the Liddell we've seen since the Jackson fight as being the kind of guy who can reliably beat top level 205'ers.  However, I think he still can roll against a guy like Rashad who lacks the dynamic striking to set up the takedowns he needs to win this fight.  I think late in the second round we see Rashad lose his cool and panic a little bit, he'll get sloppy and get caught with a big shot ending his night.  Chuck Liddell by TKO round 2.

Michael Rome: I'm always concerned now when Chuck fights, but I think he'll win here.  Every time they hype Rashad we hear we're going to see a new, aggressive striker.  It never happens.  Rashad isn't that hard to hit, he got hit by Bisping and Tito.  Chuck via TKO, round 1.

Mike Fagan: This match is tailor made for Chuck to set him up for a title shot.  Unless he starts to show his age, Chuck Liddell by KO.

Rich Franklin vs. Matt Hamill

Luke Thomas: Ultimately, I don’t know that Hamill has enough risk management to not let Franklin do what Franklin does best: pile on offense in spurts, waves and drives. I don’t know that Hamill will necessarily get finished, but it wouldn’t surprise me. This is too strong a test for Hamill even with his massive improvement. Franklin via TKO, round 3.

Nate Wilcox: The pointlessness of this fight makes it hard for me to think clearly. Franklin going to 205 doesn't accomplish anything, especially if he loses. I'd much rather see Rich Franklin vs Dan Henderson than either of their matchups on this card. But I digress. I don't think Hamill will be able to handle Franklin's unconventional southpaw striking, nor will he have the reach to connect with many powerhouse rights. Franklin by decision.

Brent Brookhouse: I don't trust Hamill's gas at all, especially not against a guy like Rich who will make him work.  Even more, I don't like the way Hamill seems to react when he takes punishment and Rich is going to hit him enough that we'll see if he is reacting any better these days.  The upset wouldn't shock me, but I don't see it happening.  Rich Franklin by TKO round 3.

Michael Rome:  I like Hamill, but he is being overrated after his last two fights.  His head movement is still terrible, and he throws flat footed, which will be a big problem against Rich Franklin.  I suspect he may win a round with takedowns, but Rich is too good to lose via lay and pray.  Franklin via TKO, round 3.

Mike Fagan: I think Hamill still has too many flaws and growing pains to beat someone as good as Franklin.  Rich Franklin by decision.

Dan Henderson vs. Rousimar Palhares

Luke Thomas: The word inside the grappling world is that Palhares is tapping everyone on the mat…and I mean everyone. He is clearly the better submission wrestler than Henderson. But the only time Henderson has been submitted is by larger opponents or after being desperately hurt. Torquinho is not larger and has very rudimentary stand-up. This is Henderson’s fight to lose. Henderson via TKO, round 2.

Nate Wilcox: Henderson is definitely less effective at 185 than at 205. He's also notoriously had troubles with BJJ aces. Nonetheless, I think his standup will be too much for the sawed-off Palhares. Toquinho is also no Big Nog or Murilo Bustamante -- by the time they faced Henderson they were both savvy vets. Also lets not forget that Dan  KTFO'd Bustamante once and decisioned Big Nog. I think he's going to give Palhares a beat down that might send the kid to welterweight. Henderson by TKO.

Brent Brookhouse: Dan really needs to win and look great doing it.  A loss here would put Dan at 0-3 in the octagon which just isn't good enough to stick around.  Palhares is anything but an easy fight for Henderson and anyone who gets out of the first round against Rousimar without tapping out to a submission has to feel like they're doing something right.  I'm going to go with the experience and desperation here but don't be shocked to see Hendo take his third straight loss.  Dan Henderson by close decision.

Michael Rome: Too early for Palhares, I think he is going to get smoked.  I don't see him taking Dan down, and he's nowhere near Dan's class standing.  Henderson via TKO, round 1.

Mike Fagan: If Rousimar had more size, I'd feel more uncomfortable about this pick.  Henderson struggles against good BJJ guys, but I think his size will allow him to keep this standing.  Henderson by decision.

Karo Parisyan vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida

Luke Thomas: Karo’s rested on his laurels too long. He’s rested on his unique skill set, toughness and aggression. And while he was resting, the MMA game was catching up. Yoshida has the judo to neutralize Karo and the vicious ground and pound to score serious points with the judges. Karo resorts to desperate measures when he can’t throw an opponent and I expect Yoshida to take advantage of Karo’s recklessness. Yoshida by split decision.

Nate Wilcox: Karo's back is up against the wall. Yoshida is on the fast track. The stakes couldn't be higher. Both guys are Judo-based fighters. Karo is promising that THIS TIME he's actually trained for the fight, but we'll see Saturday. As much as I want to pick Karo, I'm going to with the evidence of their recent fights -- Karo hasn't looked really good since beating Josh Burkman in May 2007. Yoshida on the other hand has been on a tear -- including against top competitors like Akira Kikuchi. Yoshida by decision.

Brent Brookhouse: I really don't like Karo's lack of finishing ability, the longer you stay in a fight with someone who can finish you off the more chances you are giving them to do so.  Karo also doesn't have the advantage of being much more familiar with fighting in a cage so he loses an edge there.  Yoshida by decision.

Michael Rome: This is really a hard pick.  Karo has lost a lot of luster of late, and he's looked flat, but I think he'll come out looking better here.  That being said, the way he underestimated the threat from Yoshida on Luke's show makes me think upset.  Yoshida via TKO, round 2.

Mike Fagan: I'm big on Yoshida.  I'm not big on Parisyan.  Zenko should be able to hold off Karo's judo.  Yoshida by TKO.

Nathan Marquardt vs. Martin Kampmann

Luke Thomas: Kampmann is a very good fighter, but he’s not the sort to make a run through the middleweight division. He lacks serious power and his grappling won’t stand-up to an Abu Dhabi veteran like Marquardt. Unless Marquardt gets careless again, this is his fight to lose. Marquardt via TKO.

Nate Wilcox: I think Marquardt will prove that Kampmann is a paper tiger. Kampmann is very well rounded, but the most impressive name on his win list is Thales Leites and he didn't really beat Leites so much as out last him once he got gassed. Kampmann doesn't have the power to KO Nate nor can he win on the ground. I expect Marquardt to win a dominating 3 round decision.

Brent Brookhouse: The biggest problem here is that Kampmann is a very good striker without a lot of power.  So Nate doesn't have to be overly cautious in the striking game, which will allow him to close distance, use his wrestling to get the takedown and punish Kampmann from the top position.  Nate Marquardt by TKO round 2.

Michael Rome: Nate routinely lets me down, but I think he will power his way to a decision here, hopefully with another piledriver.  Mardquardt via decision.

Mike Fagan: Marquardt by TKO.

Continue reading this post »

Ben Fowlkes of Sports Illustrated has noted the lack of heat around tomorrow's UFC:

You almost have to feel bad for the fighters on Saturday's UFC 88 card in Atlanta. With the announcement of Randy Couture's return dominating MMA headlines, the weekend fights in Georgia seem like an afterthought.

Here's why:

1. Chuck Liddell vs Rashad Evans is not a compelling headliner.

Commenters are split between those who think Rashad has no chance and those who think Rashad's only chance is to win a decision by evading the fight. While there's a very high likelihood of a Liddell win resulting in a title shot for Chuck, there's almost no chance of Rashad getting a title shot with a win. The only intrigue in this fight is whether or not Father Time is finally catching up with Liddell.

2. The Couture announcement stepped on the hype.

Its pretty unusual for a promoter to spend most of the week before a major event promoting an event months down the road. But that's what Dana White spent the week doing. I don't blame him, the Couture/Lesnar fight will be a huge record setting PPV, and the timing of the announcement was forced by the realities of legal matters and negotiations. Nevertheless, all the hype for Couture/Lesnar was time spent not hyping Chuck vs Rashad.

3. Despite featuring several name fighters, the undercard is very weak.

You'd think that an undercard with former headliners Rich Franklin and Dan Henderson plus TUF star Matt Hamill, former MW title challenger Nate Marquardt and UFC perennial Karo Parisyan would have some oomph. But it doesn't. Primarily IMO because Franklin and Henderson should be fighting each other but instead Franklin's trying to move to 205 and Henderson is fighting for his UFC career against a relative unknown.

Danny Acosta has a nice (if not slightly fluffy) piece on Rich Franklin up over at Sherdog.  It covers the familiar teacher to fighter story but also touches a bit on the move back to the Light Heavyweight division and also features a rather curious quote from Franklin:

“This is definitely a tough test to see if this weight class is going to be a good fit for me or not,” Franklin says. “I’m in the process of trying to gain weight, and that’s not all going to come in this one fight. It’s going to take me several months to continue to put weight back on to be one of the bigger competitors again at 205 pounds. I know on the spectrum of things I’m going to be smaller. I think the next couple months of my career is definitely going to answer that question.”

In Hamill (4-1), Franklin sees a perfect way to re-enter the fray.

“Well, I’ll say this,” he says. “Matt’s not one of the top 10 205-pound fighters.”

The article goes on to say that Franklin doesn't plan on coasting in the fight.  But I still think that if Franklin thinks it is going to take him time to get to the point of being a real 205'er then he may need to focus a bit more on Hamill who is a big, strong 205 pounds.  I consider this a fight that Franklin should certainly win but something about the idea that he sees this fight as something of an easy entry into the shark filled waters at light heavy has me a little bit worried.

via www.combatlifestyle.com

From yesterday's UFC 88 press conference. View the rest of these photos here.