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The news came out last night that the early trending numbers for UFC 110 are weak, in the 215,000 to 240,000 range -- which is comparable to many of the UFC's foreign tape-delayed events. The difference was that UFC 110, because it occurred on Sunday afternoon in Australia, aired live in the U.S. at the regular 10pm EST slot.

First off, keep in mind that these same trending numbers for UFC 108 indicated a disastrous number for that event but later reports showed that the numbers were weak, but not as bad as initially feared. Still, 108 ended up doing around 300,000 which is still very weak for a U.S. UFC in the post-TUF era.

Our own Michael Rome predicted something like this for UFC 110:

We are just a few days away from UFC 110, a card that has a number of appealing fights but simultaneously lacks anything with serious drawing power.  The event also comes just two weeks after UFC 109, leaving the UFC with precious little time to promote the event in the United States, especially considering the fact that almost everyone in the organization is already in Australia or on their way there.

The main event is a very intriguing fight.  Cain Velasquez has stormed through everyone he's fought, but Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira represents a serious step up in competition from the likes of Cheick Kongo and Ben Rothwell.  Unfortunately, the intriguing stylistic aspects of this match probably will not be converted to PPV buys.  Velasquez is a relative unknown to UFC fans, and Nogueira, while known, has never drawn a big number in the United States.  

The real "draw" of the show is the co-main event between Wanderlei Silva and Michael Bisping.  Unfortunately for the UFC, Bisping has been very humble in his approach to this fight, leaving them without much of a hook to sell this fight on.  Given the shallow nature of the UFC middleweight division, the winner of this fight will probably only be a fight or two away from a title shot.

The rest of the card is packed with interesting fights that don't mean a lot to casual fans.  Internally, people at the UFC are excited to get this card out of the way and get onto a number of big cards with title matches.  It's usually hard to predict a buyrate until the day before a show, and since I like to stay safe, I'm going to predict the number falls between 275,000 and 325,000 buys.  

BE commenter NotTheFace puts the 110 numbers in context:

In 2009 the UFC averaged 620,000 buys per ppv event. If we look at the percentage each event was above or below that average we can definitely see a downward trend from 100.
UFC 100 1,600,000 + 245%
UFC 101 850,000 + 29%
UFC 102 435,000 -30%
UFC 103 375,000 -40%
UFC 104 500,000 -20%
UFC 106 375,000 -40%
UFC 107 620,000 +/- 0
UFC 108 300,000 -51%
UFC 109 275,000 -55% 
UFC 110 240,000 -62%

Wow. Is the UFC in a downward spiral. But here is the other interesting thing we should look at when discussing 2009 ppv buys:
Average with title on line 820,000
Average with non-title main event 370,000

Since 100 there (have) been 3 cards with title defenses (101, 104, and 107) and 6 ppv cards without titles on the line. Lesson to learn? Those belts really matter.

Because of their commitment to international expansion and their failure to lock down a deal with HBO in 2007, the UFC has had too many events and not enough television venues. Pay cable would have been an elegant solution to bringing American fans the European/Australian events. As it is, they're kind of dumped onto the American PPV market  in the late afternoon or on Spike TV via tape delay. Neither is an ideal situation. 

But many of the flop events of 2009/2010 were NOT international events: 102, 103, 106, 108 and 109 were just flat out duds. Much of that had to do with bad luck and injuries. But the refusal to cancel any of those events in the face of so many fluke fighter cancellations reflects a kind of hubris and inertia that is cause for concern.

The UFC has definitely lost the upward momentum that it had coming out of UFC 100 that carried over to UFC 101. 

Another topic that hasn't been brought up much, is the ongoing financial difficulties of Station Casinos, the foundation of the Fertitta family empire. They just reached terms with their creditors this week, allowing them to retain control of the casinos despite owing more than $2.4 billion. 

The Las Vegas Sun reported earlier this week that part of that deal included a major payment from the Fertittas:

The Fertittas would make a substantial, but undisclosed, equity investment and the current management team led by Chairman and Chief Executive Frank Fertitta III would continue to lead the company.

MMA Payout noted that and connected some dots:

Note the "substantial, but undisclosed, equity investment" that the Fertittas will have to make in order to retain control of the company. The cash from the 10% sale of Zuffa LLC. to Flash Entertainment in Abu Dhabi might come in handy.

In today's volatile no-you-own-it-now-you-don't business climate, MMA fans shouldn't be too sanguine about the continued success of the UFC. Things just get harder as the stakes get higher.

Photo via UFC.com

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Chris Lytle is getting some acclaim today for being the "most exciting fighter in UFC history" based on his holding the record for Fight Night awards from the promotion:  4 Fight of the Night bonuses, 2 Submission of the Night bonuses, 1 Knockout of the Night bonus. He won his second Sub of the Night bonus at UFC 110 for his knee bar win over Brian Foster.

It was a thing of beauty too. After Foster outpointed him standing in the first 90 seconds and added a body slam for good measure, Lytle made the most of the second standing clinch of the fight by rolling into a knee bar when Foster went for back control standing.

Foster showed a lot of promise in the fight, outstriking Lytle on the feet, throwing crisp punches and many nice kicks. His wrestling was also top notch. He just needs to work on his submission defense a bit more. Should be a good learning experience for the young fighter. For Lytle it's another bonus.

Here's a definition of the knee bar from Wikipedia:

A kneebar (technically known as a straight legbar) is a leglock which hyperextends the knee. The basic kneebar is performed similarly to an armbar by holding the opponent's leg in between the legs and arms so the opponent's kneecappoints towards the body. By pushing the hips forward, the opponent's leg is straightened, and further leveraging hyperextends the knee. A variation of the kneebar is done similarly, but instead of holding the leg with the hands, the opponent's foot is pushed behind one armpit. By pushing the shoulder backwards and pushing the hips forward, a greater amount of force is applied to the knee, and the lock becomes much more difficult to escape.

Let's look at a gif, some expert opinion from Grapplearts and a training video in the full entry.   

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SportsBusiness Journal(subscription required and highly recommended) has a story today on the UFC's successful trip to Australia.  The article provides previously unknown information on both the gate and the merchandise sales at the event:

UFC 110, headlined by the Antonio "Minotauro" Nogueira vs. Cain Velasquez heavyweight bout, grossed $540,000 in merchandise sales at Acer Arena in Sydney, breaking the previous record of $498,000 for UFC 83 at the Bell Centre in Montreal. Total sales also topped the previous arena record held by Iron Maiden.

Acer Arena doesn’t release concessions figures. The arena, built for the 2000 Summer Games, is the largest indoor venue in Sydney and has hosted acts such as Coldplay and Britney Spears.

All 16,500 tickets for the Feb. 21 fight were bought on the first day of sales back in December, trailing only the UFC’s debut in Montreal in 2008 as the fastest sellout ever. The $2.5 million gate for an international event was second only to the fight in Montreal.

 The UFC 103 event in Dallas drew 17,523 people and sold merchandise at $16.36 per cap according to SportsBusiness Daily, which gives us an idea of the merchandising floor.  Combined with this new "record" data, it's fair to surmise that the typical UFC PPV event is doing between $300,000 and $450,000 in merchandise sales.  

What to make of these numbers?  It's hard to really know without a comparison to other numbers, and good comparisons are hard to come by.  Teams tend to keep information secret, and it's hard to know what the best comparison really is.  Some of the best information I've found is on NBA merchandise sales, which is still a rough comparison because there are so many more games.

All that being said, the average for an NBA game is merchandise per cap at around $1.  For the NBA finals in 2008, the merchandise per cap at Boston Garden was $13.  

There are a ton of ways to distinguish a UFC event from the NBA finals.  There are far more NBA games than UFC events, NBA merchandise is more widely-available outside of events, and unlike fans in Dallas or Australia, Celtics fans at the finals have presumably been to a number of games during the season.  No comparison is perfect, but the fact that UFC 103 in Dallas did better merchandise per cap than a Celtics-Lakers final in Boston is pretty impressive.  This is the kind of information sponsors have to look at when they are making the determination whether or not they want to jump into mixed martial arts.  They're nervous about getting into the sport, but at the same time almost all of the data suggests that fans of the sport spend a lot of money on it.

Note:  Virtually every statistic in this article comes from either SportsBusiness Journal or SportsBusiness Daily.  Both are owned by the same parent company, and they are widely regarded as the premier trade journal in the sports business world.  You must have a subscription to read them.  

Heading into UFC 110, a lot of fighters were declared "done."  Mirko CroCop, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, and Wanderlei Silva all had a lot to prove.  Surprisingly, Silva put on the best performance of the 3.  To be sure, none of these guys are even remotely as dominant as they were at one point, but what exactly does it mean to be done?  Wanderlei Silva is certainly not done as a fan favorite.  He's certainly not done as a competitive fighter in the top MMA organization in the world; he just defeated Michael Bisping, who is a more than capable fighter.  He's done dominating divisions and going on reigns of terror, but does that mean he should have to retire?  I think not.

As a Wanderlei Silva fan, what I saw Saturday night was heartening.  No, he is never going to be the dominant monster of old ever again.  Some fans can't bear to watch a Wanderlei Silva who isn't scaring his opponents to death before the fight starts, and for them the idea of watching him fight even fights with Michael Bisping is a travesty.  From my perspective, hanging onto that kind of nostalgia is really a big waste of time and negative energy.  Wanderlei Silva probably only has a limited time left in which he can even be competitive in the UFC; isn't it a better idea to just appreciate it while it lasts instead of pining for an era of dominance over hand-picked and undermatched opponents?

The problem for Silva right now is his chin more than anything else.  In the old days he was unafraid to wade in wildly, now he’s a lot more cautious after being knocked out a few times.  I do think he has the skills to be a strong top 10 middleweight in the UFC, even without his old ability to take damage.  He has nice leg kicks, and his ability to instantly change a fight with a big shot is something his opponents won’t take lightly.

Last night sold me on the fact that Wanderlei Silva is not done.  At 185 he was moving a lot better than he was against Franklin, and for the first time in his UFC career he went 3 rounds without looking gassed.  He also moved a lot faster than he did against Franklin, and wasn't nearly as flat-footed.  185 is obviously the right size for him at this point in his career, and the division could use his star power.

There are a number of interesting fights for Silva at middleweight.  A potential clash with Akiyama only makes sense to me if it’s in Japan, as it’s really only going to be a big deal to Japanese fans.  Silva won’t fight Demian Maia, but he could potentially rematch Vitor Belfort or fight Chael Sonnen.  The latter could make for a very entertaining season of The Ultimate Fighter.

My first choice for Silva is a fight with Nate Marquardt.  Nate is a top 5 middleweight with a good all-around game, and a win or loss to Marquardt would really tell us a lot about where Silva stands at 185.  Nate really prefers to stand in his fights as of late, so it could potentially be a very explosive fight.  

Mirko "CroCop" Filipovic just can't please anyone. Photo by Daniel Herbertson, Sherdog.com

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One of the storylines that some of the major MMA media have been focusing on in the aftermath of UFC 110 has been the poor performance that Mirko "CroCop" Filipovic displayed in his beatdown of Anthony Perosh, a fellow Croatian fighter who took the fight on short notice. While most fans are acknowledging the fact that Mirko was completely dominant in the victory over Perosh, many writers are down on Mirko for not being able to destroy a fighter at that level in quicker fashion:

Yes, Cro Cop thoroughly dominated Perosh, left him covered in blood and won by TKO, but Cro Cop did less than I thought he should do: The Cro Cop of old would have knocked Perosh out in the first round, not toyed with him for 10 minutes. Perosh, meanwhile, did more than I thought he should do: After taking the fight on just two days' notice, he showed a lot of heart in continuing to fight even after that nasty cut opened up on his forehead late in the second round. (Michael David Smith, MMAFighting.com)

Josh Gross over at Sports Illustrated was a bit more reserved:

Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic (26-7-2) may have earned the 20th stoppage victory of his career, but it was hardly his most impressive win. Appearing slow and sluggish, he needed 10 minutes to put away Anthony Perosh, who met the veteran heavyweight slugger on two-day's notice.

I'm not going to disagree with Gross in the assessment that Mirko was slow and sluggish. He did look visibly a bit more powerful than in previous outings, but I'm assuming Gross' evaluation stems from the fact that Mirko didn't press the pace enough to finish off a crushed Perosh in the first or second round.

It wasn't an impressive victory in the context of Mirko's past victories. He didn't head kick Perosh into unconsciousness or punch him out with the tenacity we've seen during his PRIDE days. But that's my problem entirely. The expectations from some fans and writers are that if Mirko isn't performing at that level, he's worthless in terms of entertainment value and done with this sport.

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Less than 48 hours after his second round TKO loss to Mirko Crocop, Australian MMA fighter Anthony Perosh has secured himself a brand new 4-fight deal with the UFC.

Anthony had previously stated that his goal coming in to 2010 was to rack up enough wins to get back in the UFC again, ironically it was a loss that secured him not only entry back in to the UFC, but a 4 fight deal. On behalf of the Aussie MMA community, we would like to wish Anthony all the best for the rest of 2010 & his return to the UFC.

Photo by Daniel Herbertson, Sherdog.com

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Wanderlei Silva said it best during his post-fight interview with Joe Rogan following his decision victory over Michael Bisping on Saturday night at UFC 110. Everyone has bad moments in their life. Unfortunately for Silva, he's had more than his fair share of bad results over the past four years.

He was absolutely dominated by a quicker Mirko "CroCop" Filipovic at PRIDE's 2006 Openweight Grand Prix, crushed by a devastating left hand from Dan Henderson at PRIDE 33, edged by Chuck Liddell in his UFC return at UFC 79, and put to shame in only 3:21 at UFC 92 by long-time rival Quinton "Rampage" Jackson. He also dropped an unanimous decision to Rich Franklin in his most recent loss at UFC 99 a little under a year ago.

While most fans would look at that number of losses as a significant indicator that Silva's time at the top has dwindled, the level of competition within that list is very high. "CroCop" was at the top of his game when their match-up occurred, Henderson remains one of the best in the world, Liddell was on a slight downturn in his career, and Jackson and Franklin continue to be considered elite-level fighters.

Silva has now been relegated to fighting some lesser competition, and some might say that he's the gatekeeper to taking on the best of the best. But Wanderlei Silva doesn't seem too keen on having a moniker that denotes him as a "gatekeeper".

As evident in Silva's pre-fight interview for his battle with Michael Bisping, the philosophy that was sold to the fans was that we would see the return of the ultra-aggressive Silva that exploded onto the scene in PRIDE and devastated his opponents. We managed to see glimmers of the style that created "The Axe Murderer" on Saturday night.

Unexpectedly, Silva's style was similar to his past fights. He was patient, maintained range, and tried to find openings in Bisping's defense. A style that some fans have been critical of because it doesn't take advantage of Silva's best attributes.  Despite those feelings, Silva had a outing he should be proud of at UFC 110. His takedown defense was solid, his scrambling ability on the bottom was phenomenal, and his increase in quickness was noticeable.

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The Event:

• Live Results and Commentary -- Brent Brookhouse

• Cain Velasquez Beats Down Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira -- Kid Nate

• Wanderlei Silva Drops Michael Bisping -- Kid Nate

• Australia's George Sotiropoulos Dominates Joe Stevenson -- Kid Nate

• Keith Jardine Is Finished by Ryan Bader -- Kid Nate

• Mirko Cro Cop Filipovic Slashes Anthony Perosh to Ribbons -- Kid Nate

• Undercard Results -- Mike Fagan

• UFC 110 Bonuses and Live Gate

Multimedia:

• Cage Cast 68: UFC 110 Recap (podcast)
  

Post-Fight Analysis:

• Sydney Morning Herald: "The Sickening Roar for Gore" -- Michael Rome

• FightMetric Releases Report for Wanderlei Silva vs. Michael Bisping -- Mike Fagan

• Post-Fight Recap and Analysis -- Mike Fagan

• The quiet ascension of Ryan Bader -- Jesse Holland

• Congratulations Wanderlei -- but Michael Bisping thinks he won the fight -- Jesse Holland

• George Sotiropoulos now in the lightweight mix with big win over Joe Stevenson -- MMA Mania

• Your Obligatory 'Was the Bisping-Siva Decision Controversial?' Post -- Zak Woods

• UFC 110 Hangover -- Zak Woods

• I'd Like To Thank The Australian MMA Fans That Attended UFC 110 -- Kelvin Hunt

• Australian Media Sounds The Alarms, But Some Get The Picture -- Kelvin Hunt

• Things We Learned While Watching UFC 110 -- Gal's Guide to MMA

The Aftermath:

• Where Do UFC 110 Fighters Go Next? -- Brent Brookhouse
• Mirko Cro Cop - "I Believe I Belong in the Top of the Heavyweight Division" -- Anton Tabuena

• Despite win at UFC 110, Mirko Cro Cop's title aspirations remain a long shot -- James Kimball

• Cain Velasquez looks forward to 'bigger' things after stopping Minotauro Nogueira at UFC 110 -- MMA Mania

• Dana White: Yoshihiro Akiyama wants Wanderlei Silva -- Akimitsu Kuwabara

• Keith Jardine: Where Do We Go Now? -- Zach Krantz

• After Latest Defeat, What Does the Future Hold for "Minotauro" Nogueira? -- Nick Becker

• Cain Velasquez Talks Brock Lesnar -- Kelvin Hunt

I decided to do a quick check of the major Australian papers for their view of last night's show, and the column on the front page of the Sydney Morning Herald says it all:

But now the blood pouring out of Bonnar's head is so copious the ring floor is slippery and even the referee thinks it's time to call the doctor. This worthy man checks Bonnar and ruefully shakes his head. The fight must be stopped.

BOO! BOOOO! BOOOOOO! Though we in the crowd feel badly let down and roar our extreme displeasure...

And so the afternoon goes on, with nine vicious bouts and much blood spilt. About 30 police watch as the fighters continue to bash each other to a pulp. If it were to happen 100 metres away, on the street, those same police would have to arrest them for grievous bodily harm - though they'd take the precaution of calling for back-up first.

There is so much quotable material in the article that it was hard to choose what to go with.  I highlighted the above because I knew as soon as I saw the Bonnar fight that skeptical press would jump on it.  The blood, the questionable implementation of the rules, and the brutality made it the perfect example for a reporter looking to make a point.

There's a degree to which the effort to convert old men of a certain sensibility to mixed martial arts is simply a waste of time.  The UFC spends a lot of time, effort, and money convincing certain reporters from big name establishments to come out to their shows, and more often than not they're rewarded with a smug piece by someone who was never interested in giving it a chance to begin with. 

In the United States, it took years and numerous shows to convince skeptical members of the press to at least accept mixed martial arts as a sport.  The effort overseas in markets they visit once or twice a year will be even more difficult.

While the article reads something like an annoying time capsule, it's worth noting that the author does concede the athletes are highly skilled before promising to never watch a show again.

via www.cdn.sherdog.com

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Everyone loves to play fantasy matchmaker and there's no better day to take on the challenge as the day after a major event.  Here's a selection of last night's fights and where I think the fighters should go from here.

James Te Huna vs. Igor Pokrajac - Te Huna is a guy that they're going to want to keep around but from the reports (I have not yet seen the fight) he got buzzed by Pokrajac in the second round.  I'd think a move to a fight with Razak Al-Hassan is a fair step.  It's not really a progression from Pokrajac but I think it's too soon for him to take that step up to the level of a Brian Stann or Steve Cantwell.  Al-Hassan is 0-2 and doesn't look like he has any business in the UFC so it's probably sensible for him to be used as a "get me over" fight for a guy the promotion wants to protect for regional interests.  As for Pokrajac?  Next for him is a job search.

Chris Lytle vs. Brian Foster - Really great leg lock win for Lytle and for the first time since August of 2007 he has back-to-back wins.  If Ben Saunders gets the win over Jake Ellenberger a fight between him and Lytle has fight of the night written all over it.  The winner would also emerge as a fringe contender at welterweight.  As for Foster, his job should be safe given that his style is very crowd friendly but he does need a win to stick around.  If Amir Sadollah weren't going to be tied up with Dong Hyun Kim that would be a good fight.  As a matter of fact, pretty much every fighter who would be a good fight for Foster is tied up at the moment with almost all of the mid-level 170 pounders being booked between now and UFC 115.

Stephan Bonnar vs. Krzysztof Soszynski - Really there isn't anything better for either guy than a rematch.  They were putting on a good fight that would please more or less any crowd on any show they put it on.  The inconclusive ending really makes for plenty of reason to throw them back on a card on Spike or Versus.

Two more individual fighters:

George Sotiropoulos - I'd be interested to see George move up to fight Sean Sherk (depending on the status of his injury).  Sherk is basically "good Stevenson" and I'd be interested to see if Sotiropoulos can continue on with his good use of length and extremely high level floor game.  Sotiropoulos is very good but he's also 32 so you can't waste too much time before seeing what he's got.

Michael Bisping - Against dangerous strikers Bisping just looks so hesitant to fully engage.  He spent the entire fight against Silva looking to pot shot and very rarely threw anything hard enough to make Silva think twice about coming in with his wide shots.  The Kendall Grove/Mark Munoz winner would be a very nice fight for Bisping who needs to re-earn his spot fighting against the upper end of the middleweights.

Where is the rest of the card?  Ryan Bader, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, and Cain Velasquez?  Well, that's what I'm tasking all of you with, dear Bloody Elbow community.  Have some fun and share your thoughts on what the appropriate next step for everyone is.