Early reports of the UFC 108 buyrate based on trending patterns were overly pessimistic.  In this week's Wrestling Observer Newsletter (subscription only), Dave Meltzer reported that the show pulled in an estimated 300,000 buys based on early numbers rather than trends.  The numbers come from cable companies and are more accurate than the trending numbers.

If this number holds up, it means the show did the numbers most experts expected it to do ahead of time.  The week of the event I gave myself a pretty large margin for error, predicting the buyrate would fall between 260,000 and 325,000 buys:

This is truly the show that will test the North American base number.  My suspicion is that the base is somewhere around 300,000 buys, which is still a healthy number, but hitting that base over and over again will push it lower.  The only hope for a decent number is Rashad's popularity coming off the reality show, but I'm hard pressed to see this doing better than 325,000, and I wouldn't be surprised if it dipped as low as 260,000 buys.

After UFC 108, Dana White crowed that critics were proven wrong.  He also claimed the show would do between 400,000 and 500,000 buys.  Of course, nobody can tell ahead of time if a fight like Joe Lauzon vs. Sam Stout is going to be a standard lightweight decision or a shockingly exciting fight.  People can tell ahead of time though that nobody is interested in that fight and that the numbers will be as low as the company can possibly do in North America.  

I wrongly predicted the show itself would be boring--it turned out a lot of the fights were exciting.  But I was correct about the fact that the card was dreadful from a public anticipation standpoint, and would draw the worst North American number in a long time.  Fightlinker put it best: sometimes the prelims on a show end up being particularly exciting, but that doesn't mean the UFC should charge $50 to see prelims on PPV.

The number for UFC 109 will be very interesting.  There is already a pretty good amount of press coverage for Randy Couture vs. Mark Coleman and the fight is two weeks out.  The show will benefit from the long gap since UFC 108, but at the same time Randy is being asked to draw a buyrate with no help whatsoever.  Mark Coleman has never drawn a big number in North America, and there's nobody else on the card that resembles a draw.  

Will fans be sold on the idea of seeing two active UFC hall-of-famers fight?  My guess is the answer depends on how much Mark Coleman decides to ham it up on the countdown show.  If he antagonizes Randy and says some of the things he's said in the past about Couture, the fight could end up being a pretty decent draw.  

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From Dave Meltzer's Wrestling Observer Newsletter (subscription required):

Photo by Dave Mandel via Sherdog

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It shouldn't be any surprise that I'm doing a Judo Chop on Cole Miller's inverted triangle plus kimura submission win over Dan Lauzon at UFC 108. This move is exactly why the Judo Chop was invented!

The fight was a very good one, evenly matched with several back and forth swings of the pendulum for such a short fight. Initially Miller scored with his aggression and reach but then Lauzon's punching power quickly reversed their fortunes. But when Lauzon took Miller down, he found that Miller's jiu jitsu is a force to be reckoned with, even from a very disadvantageous position.

We've talked about the inverted triangle in a previous Judo Chop covering Toby Imada's famous tap out of Jorge Masvidal:

The thing to understand is that the triangle choke is an artery choke. It's not Imada's shin calf cutting off Masvidal's windpipe that causes Jorge to pass out. Instead its a blood choke that uses Jorge's own left shoulder and Imada's left thigh to each compress a carotid artery which prevents oxygen reaching the brain.

There's a whole discussion I could get into about what exactly is an inverted triangle since Renzo Gracie for example uses the term to describe a completely different move in which you switch the choking leg in a regular triangle.

You can also see Ryan Hall landing an inverted triangle in a no-gi grappling competition in a slightly different position here. It's also not to be confused with the triangle from inverted guard which is beautifully explained here.

And we've talked about a kimura being applied while using the legs to control the opponent's head, in Gray Maynard's near tap out of Roger Huerta with a kimura plus head scissors.

What Miller did was basically a combination of Imada and Maynard's moves.

Let's look at how he did it in the full entry.

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Photo by Dave Mandel via Sherdog

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In the aftermath of UFC 108, we've had to suffer from all sorts of I-told-you-so's from Dana White to Kevin Iole to Mike Chiapetta. A card that was universally pooped on rose from the ashes of the infirmary to deliver an entertaining night of bouts, and everyone wants to shove it in the faces of those people who may have tempered their anticipation.

Those kids over at Fightlinker put down their poutine long enough to deliver this rebuttal: (And, guys, could you cut down on the curse words?  It's hard to link you with all the dirty, profane language.)

Here’s hoping our doubt might be the very reason the UFC doesn’t try to charge us 50 bucks for lineups like UFC 108. The end result of the fights is moot – the prelims often feature the best fights of an event but that doesn’t mean the UFC would be justified in ladling up a night of those and asking 50 bucks for it. As for the ‘disrespect’, here’s how it goes, and this is pretty complicated so pay close attention: the better the card, the more excited people are to see it. There’s a decent amount of leeway from person to person around what your definition of ‘better’ is but in the end you don’t get to arbitrarily say the card is great when the fans as a whole have decided it’s not.

UFC 108 wasn’t full of bad fights. It was just full of fights no one gave much of a s--- about. Are you really going to piss on the average fan for not getting hysterical about Sam Stout vs Joe Lauzon and Jim Miller vs Duane Ludwig? Seeing Mark Munoz play Ryan Jensen like a conga drum was fun and all, but what does it matter in the grand scheme of things? Is it wrong that fight fans clamor to see fighters they care about facing other fighters they care about in matches that mean something?

I used to run basements shows for punk bands for a long time.  I promoted a lot of awesome shows with a lot of bands you probably don't know (and maybe some that you do), but it would be laughable for me to charge more than $5 or a strongly suggested donation to attend.

I'm not suggesting the UFC institute some sort of sliding scale rate for pay-per-views.  The point I'm making (or elaborating on) is this: no one thought this was a "bad card" because of the potential of the fights themselves.  I told all of my casual friends that the fights would probably end up being pretty good because of the style matchups between the various fighters.

But for the same reason I can't expect more than 100 people to show up to a house show billed with bands that only a small niche even knows about; Zuffa, and Dana White in particular, can't expect fans - casual and hardcore alike - to get psyched for a show headlined by a guy making his main event debut and a guy that may never win over the adoration of MMA's fandom.

I give all the credit in the world to Joe Silva and the matchmaking team.  They certainly put together the best card they could given the circumstances.  Yet, that doesn't mean we have to put the UFC on the altar and sing their praises because a fight card produced a lot of exciting finishes.  If that was the ultimate goal for a fight promoter, Melvin Manhoef, Houston Alexander, and Drew McFedries would be among the highest paid and most sought after guys in the sport.

Fans need a reason to tune in (unless you're Jordan Breen and you'll watch two Zimbabwean wrestlers fight in some underground Brazilian show).  The viewer wants to see two guys with personal beef or title shots or 300 pound freaks of nature.  Evans-Silva and Daley-Hazelett had minor implications for their respective divisions, but neither had enough pull to warrant their spots on the card (relative to PPV cards of the past couple years).  Add in an advertised undercard that is more fitting for a free TV Fight Night, and you have a card that can rightfully be labeled "bad" by a critical observer. 

The Event:

• UFC 108: Evans vs. Silva - Live Results and Commentary -- Brent Brookhouse

• Rashad Evans Survives Against Thiago Silva -- Mike Fagan

• Paul Daley Blows Up Dustin Hazelett -- Mike Fagan

• Sam Stout Defeats Joe Lauzon in a Three Round Battle -- Anton Tabuena

• Jim Miller Submits Duane Ludwig -- Anton Tabuena

• Junior Dos Santos Knocks Out Gilbert Yvel -- Anton Tabuena
  
• Mark Munoz Makes Ryan Jensen Tap to Strikes -- Mike Fagan
  
• Martin Kampmann Chokes Out Jacob Volkmann -- Scott Haber
• Jake Ellenberger Stops Mike Pyle In The Second Round -- Scott Haber
• Cole Miller Submits Dan Lauzon -- Scott Haber

• Complete Undercard Results -- Nick Thomas

• UFC 108 bonuses and awards for 'Evans vs Silva' PPV fights -- Jesse Holland

Multimedia:

• Boxing legend James Toney heckles Dana White following UFC 108 (Video) -- Ariel Helwani

• Cole Miller channels Toby Imada for UFC 108 submission win over Dan Lauzon (photo)

• UFC 108 post fight press conference

• Lights Out Radio - Episode 177: UFC 108 Review (podcast)
• UFC 108 in Pictures -- Zak Woods

Post-Fight Analysis:

• FightMetric Report for UFC 108 Main Event (Rashad Evans vs. Thiago Silva) -- Mike Fagan

• UFC 108: Evans vs. Silva Post-Fight Recap and Analysis -- Mike Fagan

• UFC 108 Hangover -- Zak Woods

• Quick Analysis And Commentary -- Kelvin Hunt

• Random Thoughts and Ramblings -- Gal's Guide to MMA

• UFC 108 delivers despite doubts -- Kevin Iole

• 'Cursed' Event Delivers Big for UFC -- Mike Chiappetta

• Five things we learned from UFC 108 -- Josh Gross
  
• UFC 108: Three Impressions (I Know, I Know, More Analysis) -- Zak Woods

The Aftermath:

• Hate, Hate, Hate: UFC 108 Playa Hater's Ball -- Mike Fagan
• Thoughts on the Future Coming out of UFC 108 -- Michael Rome

• Evans win sets up ‘Rampage’ showdown -- Dave Meltzer

• Yvel KO propels Junior dos Santos into UFC heavyweight contender mix -- Jesse Holland

• Paul 'Semtex' Daley explains post-fight apology after UFC 108 KO over Dustin Hazelett -- Jesse Holland

• Daley moves to top of 170 heap with fists and mouth -- Steve Cofield

• Paul Daley's Excuse Doesn't Cut It -- Michael David Smith
• Sam Stout got a chance to prove he's not just a one-dimensional striker  -- Jesse Holland

Dynamite!! 2009:

• Dynamite!! 2009 Live Play-by-Play, Results and Commentary -- Chris Nelson

• Dynamite!! 2009 in the Books; Arms Were Broken, Careers Were Ended, Questions Answered -- D.W.

• Shinya Aoki Apologizes For His Actions -- Anton Tabuena

• Satoshi Ishii: Once Again Japanese MMA Rushes a Top Prospect -- Kid Nate

• Shinya Aoki Sets New Lows for Sportsmanship by Breaking Mizuto Hirota's Arm and Then Taunting Him -- Kid Nate

• Dynamite!! 2009 Ratings Are In -- D.W.

• Masato Retires on Top, Defeating Arch Nemesis Andy Souwer Finally -- D.W.

• Alistair Overeem's Dynamite!! 2009 Post-Fight Interview (video)

• Hidehiko Yoshida Bests Satoshi Ishii in His Debut Fight -- D.W.

• Shinya Aoki Ties Hirota in a Knot; Shatters his Arm, Flips Him Off -- D.W.

• Gegard Mousasi Respectfully Dispatches Gary Goodridge -- D.W.

We did well on UFC 108 while FightLinker pulls guard to play bottom position in a familiar last place. Our picking percentage for the event was a Super Heavyweight division (60+ members) leading 69.2%. Well done and keep it up.

Our individuals deserving praise for the event come in the form of Yekop and Tayman. Yekop led our camp with 84 points earned through correct fight predictions. Those 84 points are good enough to place him in 25th out of the 4335 competing in the event on MMA Playground. The only fight missed by Yekop was Sam Stout vs. Joe Lauzon, as he picked a first round submission by J-Lau which never happened. I feel that particular pain.

Concerning the wagering side of things, Tayman earns $3,682 on the event. Most of this fake money comes off a $300 Miller/ Munoz/ Stout parlay. Tayman placed an admirable 6th out of the 4375 wagering digital coin on 108. Congratulations all around. The next event and 2nd of the 10 event season is UFC Fight Night 20 January 11th. Don't forget. More top players from our camp are displayed in the extended entry.

Important: If you wish to join the BE betting camp, send me a message on MMA Playground with your BE user name or leave a comment in this thread so I can send you an invite. Please make sure your MMA Playground login name is the same as your BE name or as close as possible so we can give you the proper credit.

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UFC 108 delivered a lot of quick and exciting finishes before falling a bit flat in the main event.  There are plenty of recaps around, so let's focus on what's next.

For Rashad Evans, Rampage Jackson is up next, and I'm told it's tentatively scheduled for UFC 114 in Las Vegas over Memorial Day weekend.  It will be a monster fight, and I think they intend to bring back UFC: Primetime to build it.  Whereas many were writing Jackson off just a few weeks ago, there's a renewed and surging view that Jackson has the tools to finish Rashad.  Thiago Silva's inability to finish Rashad saved the UFC millions of dollars in 2010.

I don't think Thiago Silva will get hurt too badly as a result of this loss.  He made it exciting in the third round, and I think it makes sense to match him up against Rich Franklin in May or June.  Another option is a fight with the winner of Brandon Vera vs. Jon Jones.

Paul Daley got a huge win tonight, and made himself a pretty big "bad guy" star with his shotgun antics after the fight.  Note to fighters that want to make money in this business: don't apologize for being a lunatic, that is what sells, and if you sell you make money.  Dana suggested matching Daley up against Fitch or Koscheck, which would be a very serious test of Daley's claim that he's improved his takedown defense since his fight with Jake Shields.  Personally, I'd rather see him fight Thiago Alves.  That would be pure fireworks and a hell of a fun fight. 

The only other fighter really worth discussing coming off of this card is Junior Dos Santos, who put Gilbert Yvel away fairly easily.  The next test for him should be the winner of Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Cain Velasquez, but Dos Santos won't fight Nogueira.  If Cain wins that is the best match possible, but if Nogueira wins perhaps they could match Dos Santos up with his original opponent for UFC 108, Gabriel Gonzaga.

Photo via D. Mandel at Sherdog

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It's a huge faux pas in the online gambling community to brag about your winners if you made no public announcement of your play prior to the sporting contest.  So, with FightMetric releasing their report for last night's UFC 108 main event between Rashad Evans and Thiago Silva, I say the following with a whole heaping of reservation.

I scored the fight a 29-29 draw with the second round as the dreaded 10-10.

I didn't tweet it.  I didn't post it in the live thread.  Hell, I didn't even casually mention it in the post-fight analysis.  To be fair, I put a bet on Silva, and I'm always a little wary of offering bold statements in fights in which I may not be able to trust my own sense of objectivity. 

In any case, I wasn't exactly shocked when I woke up to this:

That translates into a 29-29 draw if you extrapolate the Effectiveness Scores into the ten point must system.  FightMetric gives the nod to Rashad if we look at the fight as a whole, and I'm not sure many people are going to disagree that if you factor in the other (and as I've pointed out before, inane) criteria, Rashad takes decision.

Still, round two is another data point we can toss around when we discuss the limitations of the current judging criteria.  Rashad only landed 8 strikes in the round (3 power shots) while going 3-7 on his takedowns and only passing to half-guard once.  Thiago landed 22 strikes (5 power shots) and was more active throwing 31 strikes to Rashad's 23.

In addition, Rami Genaur of FightMetric found this fun stat:

Despite landing eight takedowns throughout the match, Evans managed to land only three strikes on the ground. It is exceedingly rare to see an instance where a fighter lands more takedowns than ground strikes. In fact, Evans now holds the record for least strikes landed by a fighter with five or more takedowns landed.

...

This, of course, begs the question represented by the equation in the title: In the absence of any striking (or submission attempts, for that matter) once on the ground, are takedowns really an effective offensive technique?

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-The UFC has to be happy with all the quick finishes tonight.  With a lack of a big draw or any hype for the card, the UFC was able to deliver quantity, with nine of the ten bouts making the broadcast (some twice), instead of quality. 

-Thiago Silva will be kicking himself for a long time.  After Rashad frustrated him for two rounds with a stifling wrestling game, Silva landed a combination that rocked the former champ.  Instead of pressing, pressing, and pressing some more, Silva backed off.  What may have began as quick breather ended as a chance for Evans to recover.  Thiago couldn't find the trigger again, and allowed Rashad to escape with a decision victory.

-Could we PLEASE have five round non-title fights?  It feels a little dirty leaving this fight where we did.

-I was impressed with Evans finally bringing his game together in this fight, even if he didn't really seem to make many improvements on the faults I've pointed out.

-Dear Mike Goldberg, simply bobbing your head around for no discernible reason is not effective head movement.

-Dustin Hazelett may have lost the fight, but ROLLING KOPPO KICK?  Um, yes!

-Seriously, though, how do you fight Paul Daley for over two minutes without making some sort of attempt to drag him to the floor?

-Sam Stout looked fantastic, but how much of Joe Lauzon's ineffectiveness should be attributed to coming off ACL surgery?  Not to take anything away from Sam, but Lauzon appeared to gas sometime in the second round.

-I enjoyed Jordan Breen's analysis of Duane Ludwig: "Next time you find yourself saying, 'Just give Striker X a year or two to work on the ground game...' think of Bang Ludwig. He's had nine."

-Junior dos Santos continued to impress, but was anyone else confused why the Zuffa mouth pieces kept hyping Yvel leading up to the fight?  I'm sure they were just trying to prop up Yvel as a legitimate opponent for Cigano, but they started to have me conspiracy theorizing that they were banking on the Yvel upset.  In either case, dos Santos may or may not be for real, Joe, but beating Gilbert Yvel isn't the opponent to prove it.

$50,000 fight-night bonuses:
- Fight of the Night: Sam Stout and Joe Lauzon
- Submission of the Night: Cole Miller
- Knockout of the Night: Paul Daley

Dana White – "No one is getting cut tonight".

Dana White – "I hope Brock is ok. We'll find out this week. Then we can plan the HW division".

Dana White - "We'll put Daley against Koscheck or Fitch and see what happens".

Dana White - "Rashad vs. Rampage... we're thinking of having it in May".

Starting at ~1:20 AM EST: (ufc.com/live and espn.go.com/livenow/ufc108 )