In this week's Wrestling Observer Newsletter (subscription required), Dave Meltzer reported that updated trending data since his original report suggests UFC 104 did better than expected, clocking in around 475,000 buys.  If the number holds up, it's a very strong showing for a show with no co-main event and a feature bout between Brazilians.  

The show supposedly did very well in Los Angeles, which is not surprising considering the huge media push in L.A.  They weren't able to convince a lot of people to buy 300 dollar tickets, but they convinced a lot of people to buy a 50 dollar show.  

The time between shows clearly affects pay per view numbers; there have now been a number of shows that smashed expectations because they came more than a full month after the last pay per view. This is something to watch if the January 2nd show doesn't get a bigger top fight.

Finally, and most importantly, it's great news for Lyoto Machida, who in his second fight as champion is already a stronger draw than Anderson Silva is three years into his title reign.  The rematch should do very strong numbers if and when it happens.

via Sherdog.com

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Some of the most reflective thought in MMA goes on in Sherdog.com's Doggy Bag and while this isn't the headiest material ever discussed, it is essential:

A quick note on Machida vs. Rua: people need to remember that if you are going to beat the champion by decision, it has to be decisive. Championships are different than normal fights. Bottom line: Rua wasn't decisive.
-- Jason

TJ De Santis, radio host: Can you please tell me where this "beat the defending champion decisively" rule is located within the unified rules? Let me save you some time: it doesn’t.

One point or five. A victory is a victory. If you beat the champion by one point on two of three scorecards, you have beaten the champion.

The New York Yankees are currently playing the Philadelphia Phillies in this year’s Major League Baseball World Series. Philadelphia won last year’s. That makes them the current and defending champions of baseball. Does that mean the Yankees need to win fives games out of seven instead of the standard four? Or maybe because the Phils’ are defending champions, they should only lose games when they have been defeated by two runs, instead of one.

The singular nature of championships (either you are or you aren't the champ) as well as their gravity naturally make us lean in the direction of cleanliness. If a challenger wins, they should win decisively; should being the operative word. The reality, though, is that we live in a world of imprecision. And more to the point: once the cage door shuts and both competitors are fighting, there no longer is a champion. In a very real sense, the title is up for grabs and will go to fighter who performs better even if that performance is only marginally superior. The notion that some drubbing is owed to the champion should the challenger wish to take the title is nothing more than the desperation of loyalists hunting for excuses to protect their preferred fighter.

And to that end, "never let it go to the judges" is another meme that deserves to be removed from the language of the MMA community. Again, it would certainly be preferable if all fights ended with a clear victor, but that is not the world we live in. And if a fight does go to the judges, they should not be so incompetent that we have to collectively worry they'll be able to perform the duties asked of them. Arguing for a finish is never a bad thing, but being frightened by judging because of inconsistency and lunacy is not a problem that will be solved if we ask fighters to punch harder or hunt for submissions more actively. The answer is to a) assume some measure of judging error will never go away and b) work tirelessly to make sure athletic commissions have educated and experienced judges.

via Sherdog.com

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"I got really sad with that result but happy by the impact...I train hard, and every round, my corner told me to be calm because I was winning. Once I was winning, I decided to not expose myself and enter into Lyoto’s game. If I got more aggressive, I would have entered into Lyoto’s game and taken unnecessary risks, just like all his previous opponents did. I used the right tactics and I will probably do the same in the rematch."
...
"When the fight was over, I talked with many people, including [UFC President] Dana White. Everybody said I won, except the three judges, but they’d rather give the win to Lyoto," Rua said. "It’s so bad to loose a battle like that for interest of other people."
...
"I was not aggressive enough? You just have to look at my face and his face after the fight...He didn’t kick me one single time. I just got some knee butts. He has a broken rib, a deep cut in his mouth and could not even walk after the fight. I hit him twice as much, but the UFC judges analyzed some different aspects that I don’t really understand. I’m very upset. Actually, I cannot consider my last fight a loss."

-- Mauricio "Shogun" Rua talking to Sherdog.com about his controversial unanimous decision loss to Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida for the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship at UFC 104

Most casual and even a decent chunk of hardcore fans are completely unaware or pitifully unsympathetic to the plight of poverty so many professional grapplers and MMA fighters deal with as part of their routine lives.

Pat Barry, fortunately the winner of his bout against Antoni Hardonk at UFC 104 as well as two additional performance bonuses, nevertheless came into the fight with little more than the clothes on his back and just enough food to not starve. Literally:

FiveKnuckles.com: You were very emotional in your post-fight interview. Can you expand on that a little bit?

Pat Barry: Hey man, I showed up to this fight broke. When we got to Los Angeles on Tuesday, I had ZERO dollars to my LIFE. I'm not even joking around. I had nothing sitting in the bank, nothing under the mattress at home, not even a piggy bank; nothing at all. Two days before we got to LA, I was literally eating white rice and ketchup. I didn't want to say anything because I didn't want anybody to worry or figure I was taking this fight for the money because I really wanted to fight. Financially I had nothing. I had no choice but to win.

The callous among us will respond with the perennially off-the-mark and banal "but fighters and grapplers choose this lifestyle. They accepted the risk that's inherent in trying to become a successful professional". This is true, of course, but hardly the issue.

The reality is that every fighter or grappler who dreams of success has to believe they are capable of it. And if they believe they are capable of that degree of success, they have to push themselves to obtain it. We all know mathematically that only a handful will ever reap any sort of financial reward, but none of us going into the process know for certain who that will be. Eventually these competitors must face the grim reality that high-level, financially secure futures from fighting are not in the cards. Eventually most fighters and grapplers have to wrestle with this cold reality.

But it's easier to describe this process than it is to be human and gut through it. Not only is there the ultimate sense of failure and a question about one's true identity after dreams are deferred, but there is the outrageously difficult, poverty-stricken lifestyle that virtually all fighters must endure to move the needle of their career even beyond the outset. That some eventually fall victim to it is not something we can shrug off as prosaic simply because exceptionally daring men and women chose to accept the risk so willingly. In fact, it only reinforces my point. There's a hell of a risk involved with this pursuit and that risk should carry some measure of respect and humanity from us.

Part of being a responsible member of the MMA community lies in understanding the application of humanity, be it in stoppages, fight regulation or acknowledging suffering. What I often find so strange among the community are those that seem outraged on slightly late stoppages, but cruelly avoid ever acknowleding the toll the fight world takes on the vast majority of its competitors. There isn't only a selectively applied bias in that situation, there's also a selfishness underpinning the entire outlook.

The fight game machine is cruel to but a few and one cannot lay claim to the spoils of war without also acknowledging the costs that came with it.

Others can continue to turn a blind eye towards fighters daring to be human and fulfill a dream or a hope. I chose to forgive them for being human.

Following his victory over Ben Rothwell, news broke that Cain Velasquez could fight for the heavyweight title in Mexico City next year.  This would be a very bad idea, and I think Joe Silva and company are smart enough to avoid rushing Cain's title shot.

Cain Velasquez is a future UFC superstar.  At just 6-0 he made Ben Rothwell, a man nearly thirty pounds bigger than him, look like a weak rookie.  He tossed Rothwell around like a child.  Given his skill at this point in his career, his background in wrestling in jiu-jitsu, his all-action fighting style, and his Latino heritage, the man is destined for stardom. Unless they blow his star early by forcing him into a position he's not ready for.

It's worth stepping back and recognizing that most UFC fans barely know who he is.  This past weekend was the first time he got any sort of star reaction from a crowd.  His name is on its way to becoming part of the regular vocabulary of the casual UFC fan; in a year, with 2 or 3 more victories, he will be a big star poised for his first title shot in a very marketable main event.  If they give him a title shot in April, it will help draw in Mexico, but on PPV it will be worth about as much as any random heavyweight going for the title.

Cain Velasquez is young.  He's not like Shane Carwin, who's already up there in age.  His eventual fight with Brock Lesnar for the title, assuming Lesnar holds onto it for a while, could be a huge event.  If they don't blow it too early.  Giving Cain his shot now would be like giving Lyoto his shot 4 months after beating Sokoudjou.  Would he have been ready?  Sure.  Was it the right time? No.

From a marketing perspective, it's best to avoid having to introduce fighters challenging for the title, because they just might win.  Nobody's talking about it, but Shogun winning the title in a long, drawn-out decision would have been bad for business.  The fans barely know Shogun.  But now he has an identity.  He was screwed, or so a lot of people think. Now fans will care about him, the rematch will be bigger than the first, and if he wins he'll be a star instead of another new champion the UFC has to strain to promote.  It's counterintuitive, but it's how the fight business works.

They should exercise patience with Cain Velasquez.  They already have a marketable contender heading toward the end of his career in Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, they should spend their time building their young contenders so they actually have some new stars when the older class of stars retires.  There are all sorts of options for Cain Velasquez: Mirko CroCop, Frank Mir, Junior Dos Santos, Heath Herring, and Gabriel Gonzaga would all make sense.

There's a simple trick you can do to figure out if a title shot is coming too soon from a business perspective.  Think of how the UFC would market the fight in the United States if it happened.  In this case, the 30 second spot in April would probably have a narrarator reading something like this:  "UFC Heavyweight Champion Brock Lesnar returns to the Octagon to defend his heavyweight title at UFC 113.  After knocking out Shane Carwin, Brock Lesnar is looking to cement his legacy as the best heavyweight fighter in the world.  Standing in his way is undefeated up and coming heavyweight Cain Velasquez, who destroyed former IFL champion Ben Rothwell at UFC 104...."  

You get the picture.  The ad would focus completely on Lesnar, and then mention his opponent briefly at the end. And it would make sense to do it that way.  Fans care about Brock at this point way more than they care about Cain.  They shouldn't fight until fans care about both.

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"I was watching the fight this weekend with the director of the A Team movie, the movie crew & a couple of actors & I never been ashamed to be a part of MMA till now," reads a Monday blog post on Jackson’s Web site, www.rampage-jackson.com. "The UFC looked like assholes this weekend. The main event was boring. I anticipated that because let's be real.. Machida is a boring fighter. But Shogun getting robbed like that was pretty cut throat. Then you hear Joe Rogan say you "you have to beat the champ to be a champ." & that made me think the UFC are full of s---! Not to be whiny here but I still don't feel like I've been beat in the UFC.. but I'm not champ anymore. If the UFC gives Shogun an immediate rematch because of the controversial loss then that would validate everything I have said about the UFC in my recent posts & why I'm pissed at the UFC. But yet he deserves one & so have I deserved one against Forrest.

"The reason why I was ashamed of the UFC is because some people around me were saying that the UFC is becoming corrupt like boxing & asked me is that stuff real? Most of the people from the A Team movie were just watching it because I was watching it & they don't know much about MMA & were starting to get into it but last night they didn't have anything good to say about my sport. So I was so ashamed."

-- Quinton "Rampage" Jackson, placing quite a great deal of value in the "people from the A Team movie" regarding MMA and whining while trying "not to be whiny here".

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The California State Athletic Commission has released the payroll and gate information for UFC 104:

Lyoto Machida $200,000 (no win bonus) def. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua $155,000
Cain Velasquez $70,000 (includes $35,000 win bonus) def. Ben Rothwell $50,000
Gleison Tibau $38,000 (includes $19,000 win bonus) def. Josh Neer $14,000
Joe Stevenson $94,000 (includes $47,000 win bonus) def. Spencer Fisher $26,000
Anthony Johnson $30,000 (includes $15,000 win bonus)* def. Yoshiyuki Yoshida $12,000
*Johnson forfeited 20-percent of his $15,000 show money to Yoshida for missing weight
Ryan Bader $30,000 (includes $15,000 win bonus) def. Eric Schafer $13,000
Pat Barry $134,000 (includes $7,000 win, $60,000 Knock Out of the Night and $60,000 Fight of the Night bonus) def. Antoni Hardonk $76,000 (includes $60,000 Fight of the Night Bonus)
*Barry earned added $60,000 bonuses for Fight and Knockout of the Night
Hardonk earned an added $60,000 bonus for Fight of the Night
Chael Sonnen $54,000 (includes $27,000 win bonus) def. Yushin Okami $18,000
Jorge Rivera $36,000 (includes $18,000 win bonus) def. Rob Kimmons $9,000
Kyle Kingsbury $16,000 (includes $8,000 win bonus) def. Razak Al-Hassan $3,000
Stefan Struve $74,000 (includes $7,000 win and $60,000 Submission of the Night  bonus) def. Chase Gormley $10,000

The official attendance at the Staples Center was 14,892 with gross receipts of $1,913,093.62 and a net gate of $1,762,549.

The only real X factor out thereabout how much the UFC profited off this event is whether or not champion Lyoto Machida got a % of the PPV buy. But that comes out of the PPV receipts anyway. Even with a relatively poorly selling event, the UFC is likely in the black from gate receipts plus the money made at the concession and souvenir stands.

Per MMA Payout, the SPIKE TV airing of two preliminary fights drew 1.4 milliion viewers for 1.1 rating. MMA Payout also projects a PPV buy number of 398,000. This would be down slightly from UFC 103's surprisingly strong number. Payout's projection method is untested so just consider it an informed speculation until we get better numbers.

Regardless, the moral of the story is the same, the UFC continues to thrive in very tough economic times, even with a less than ideal headliner in their formerly marquee division.

The last few days have been surprising to say the least when it comes to the reaction stemming from Saturday evening's UFC 104 main event title bout between light heavyweights Mauricio "Shogun" Rua and Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida. We've heard accounts of the fight being scored 50-45 in favor of Rua to Anderson Silva believing it was a 50-45 win for Machida. We' ve heard angry mobs of fans and Ron Kruck claim it was a "robbery" decision while others claim that Machida simply wasn't damaged enough to be defeated because he was the champion.

There are numerous points I want to touch on, but the overall theme here is that this fight was simply a very close decision battle between two elite light heavyweights in the world today. I think that's the ultimate focus that most fans should be looking at instead of how Rua was supposedly "robbed" by the California State Athletic Commission judges.

First and foremost, Brent Brookhouse was correct in his opinion about how a fighter "must  beat the champion". The judges are there for that very reason, and I haven't heard talk of the "must beat the champion" clause in an organization's bylaws since Cage Rage. Cage Rage was the only organization that made it known to challengers for the belt that they must convincingly beat the champion. If a 48-47 decision was the obvious conclusion in favor of the challenger, the champion would likely walk away with a title defense under his belt.

But there are points in Chad Dukes' assessment that I disagree with. I've watched this fight over five times now, and I'm still surprised to hear that Rua was simply way more aggressive. While he stalked Machida for most of the fight, he waited for each opportunity to counter and made Machida make the first move. Sure, positionally within the cage -- Rua was moving around and backing up Machida, but Machida was always the aggressor in the exchanges for the most part. Is this an argument to say that aggression should go to Machida? Honestly, I doubt it came into play that much in the decision process.

Other arguments revolve around Machida losing this fight 50-45. I won't say that these fans are crazy, but I would say that I didn't see the fight go down like that at all. In fact, I scored the bout 48-47 for Rua with Round 1 being possibly one of the closest rounds I've seen that I can remember. It's amazing what you find when you re-watch these bouts without commentary and by truly watching the exchanges, something the judges don't have the luxury of doing.

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"First of all what you need to understand is that from where the judges are sitting, we get to see things that the fans at home may miss. Mauricio Rua was being aggressive but it wasn't effective aggressiveness which is what we as the judges look for when scoring a fight. The way I saw it, Lyoto was landing the more cleaner and damaging strikes throughout the fight - if you take a look at the judging criteria clean strikes are valued more-so than the quantity of strikes landed. Although Rua threw a lot of low kicks they were not as damaging as Lyotos diverse attack in the earlier rounds which is why I scored the first three rounds for Machida. You have to keep in mind we always the favour the fighter who is trying to finish the fight, and leg kicks certainly don't do that."

"When both fighters are engaged in a striking match what I always look for is the fighter who is being judicious, picking his spots, being accurate and landing the cleaner strikes which ultimately is what Lyoto did more effectively than Rua. Lyoto made Shogun come after him, he determined where the fight took place which in my opinion constitutes as effective Octagon control. I recognize the fact that Rua did have a few takedown attempts during the course of the fight however Lyoto defended them all successfully which counts as effective grappling in his favour, where as ununsuccessful takedown attempts are not scored at all. Therefore going by that criteria, I believe Lyoto won the fight clearly. I'm just glad the other judges on the panel saw it the same way and I'm sure the fans who understand the technicalities of the sport agree with the decision too."

-- Cecil Peoples, who scored the first three rounds for Machida with rounds four and five going to Rua.

UPDATE: There's some question about the source of this quote being trustworthy. We'll try to confirm it. Stay tuned.