FightMetric recently released their report for the UFC 102 main event  between Randy "the Natural" Couture and Antonio Rodrigo "Minotauro" Nogueira.  The results, I suspect, would come as a shock to most.

Looking at the fight as a whole, the FightMetric Effectiveness Score gave Nogueira the nod by a relatively close score of 346 to 304.

Under the ten point must system, FightMetric judged the fight 29-28 Nogueira with round one going to Couture 148-118 and rounds two and three going to Nogueira 81-76 and 141-79, respectively.

I believe most fans would scoff at these results.  Every single piece of analysis post-fight praised Couture simply for remaining competitive, but no one thought the fight was particularly close.  Every outlet I followed live during the fight (Michael David Smith and Steve Cofield via Twitter, Bloody Elbow and Sherdog's live scoring) gave it 30-27 to Nogueira as well.

So, where's the discrepancy?  I e-mailed Rami Genauer from FightMetric to find out:

The first point I would make is one I’ve tried to stress in the past: The Effectiveness Scores are not meant to be used to judge the fight. They are not bound by the same criteria as the Unified Rules (or any other system), so the numbers can’t be used in lieu of human judges. While watching it, I scored the fight 30-27 for Nogueira. After watching it more closely and seeing the numbers, I still score it 30-27 for Nogueira. I think that’s the correct score, based on my understanding of the judging criteria. More to your point, what we’ve found with an astounding level of accuracy, is that the Effectiveness Scores have a very high correlation with the consensus view of who "won" a round. The simple answer for why that isn’t the case here is that Round 1 was the perfect storm of an outlier round and an outlier fighter.

The Effectiveness Algorithm is a mathematical model, and all mathematical models will have a hard time dealing with outliers. For example, the PECOTA model used by Baseball Prospectus is probably the best performance projection model ever developed, but it cannot figure out Ichiro Suzuki. His talents and performance are so unique that they betray a model that has worked so well everywhere else. I’d recommend reading this great article by Nate Silver, the creator of PECOTA, explaining the Ichiro problem back in 2004.

He might not be as different as Ichiro, but when looking at his career, it’s safe to say that Nogueira is quite a large outlier. No one else has succeeded so well while being beaten so thoroughly...And so a model that has proven so valuable when dealing with so many other fighters has a hard time compensating for Nogueira’s unique physiology....Keep in mind, we have over 300 rounds scored with the Effectiveness Algorithm displayed on our website, and this is the first one that’s ever produced a truly "huh?" moment.

The action in the round was also anomalous. Nogueira did two very effective things (knockdown and sub attempt), while Couture was a lot more consistently effective. Normally, this evens itself out. The issue here, again, is Nogueira. Normal fighters don’t take that much punishment and still win the round very often.

The last point I would make is that we learn along with everyone else. We will never compromise our methodology, fudge the numbers, or hide from our findings just because the output seems strange or is unpopular. If these numbers indicate anything, it’s a proof for just how incredible Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira is. It may be a long time before we see anyone else like him.

I hate to quote such a lengthy e-mail, but Rami explains things very effectively.  The idea that Nogueira has a special and unique quality to him probably comes intuitively to most, but I find that having more evidence than simple observation helps push the point.

Photo by Sherdog.

In the second round, Nogueira swept Couture and got the mount position (via Tatame.com).

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In this installment of the Judo Chop, we'll talk about Round Two of this instant classic bout. I've written already on what an epic bout UFC 102's Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs Randy Couture was. Here's Kevin Iole talking about the back and forth drama of the bout:

Nogueira knocked Couture down about two minutes into the fight and then spent about a half-minute with a choke, trying for the submission. It was a pattern that would repeat itself throughout the fight.

The former UFC and PRIDE titleholder would get Couture in a compromising position, Couture would make a heroic escape to bring the crowd to its feet and then they'd go toe-to-toe for a while before the cycle started over.

Nogueira had to fight the inclination to get frustrated when nothing he was doing would result in a finish.

"I'd just try something else, a different submission, something different," Nogueira said. "I knew he was prepared to have a good fight. I knew it wouldn't be easy to fight Randy. When I got his back, he escaped. When I got the triangle, he escaped. He threw some very tough elbows. I knew it was a tough fight and I was prepared for that."

In the second round, Couture found himself in Nogueira's guard after foiling a guillotine attempt by the Brazilian. Couture's famous for his ground and pound game, but Nogueira's also known for having the most dangerous guard game in the heavyweight class. We'll talk about what happened in the full entry.

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Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira has the D'arce choke locked in and works unsuccessfully for a Gator Roll on Randy Couture to get the tap out.

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At the close of his live blog of UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira our own Brent Brookhouse wrote:

I'll say it one more time, that was a special fight featuring two special fighters.  I don't like to get too emotional on these liveblogs, but I feel honored to be writing about THIS fight on a site like Bloody Elbow.

Going into the event, fickle MMA fans pooed pooed Saturday's bout as a meaningless fight between two men who are too old, too slow and too battered to ever reattain the highest levels of the sport. That may be true, nonetheless, the UFC 102 headliner between Antonio Rodrigo "Minotauro" Nogueira and Randy Couture was one of the best matches I've ever seen in any sporting venue. As Ed Keller put it at MMA Torch:

I thought the announcers, who are prone to overstatement and overhype by nature (especially Goldberg), undersold how good the Couture-Nogueira fight was. I had it at easily four stars and a Fight of the Year candidate, all things considered. I was about as sure as sure gets that Couture was seconds away from losing three times (twice on submissions, once on punches). I was very happy with how that fight played out. You couldn't have scripted that to be better and more dramatic for a 30-27 fight in the sense that Couture almost lost several times, but looked totally respectable in the process because his escapes were Houdini-worthy, and then he ends up on top at the end. Plus, for those who have dreamed about this fight for years, it delivered both the stand-up and the ground fighting that you'd have wanted to see from both men. A dream match that absolutely lived up to its billing.

The fight was so great I had to break it up into multiple Judo Chops. In the full entry we'll talk about the highlights from round 1, including Nogueira's powerful combinations standing and Couture's incredible escape from fully locked on D'arce Choke, plus we'll go into the difference between a D'arce (or Brabo) choke and an anaconda choke.

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Pay attention, everyone. When you lose, this is how it's done:

Sherdog: How do you feel after your first loss?
Maia: I knew the first loss would come one day because I intend to fight for many years. As a matter of fact, though, it happened in a pretty unexpected manner because I was a little bit casual in the stand-up fight. I repeated two kicks. He got my timing down, and, the third time, he came with a straight punch and knocked me down. At the beginning of the fight, everyone is really strong, and I think the referee was right to stop the fight. I stood up well. I had no damage, and that’s most important. I pretty much believe that some things must happen in your life. For some reason, God prepares surprises for you, and that’s life. Maybe it was not the right time for me to challenge for the belt, but I’m very calm and will keep going.

Sherdog: Has UFC President Dana White said anything to you about your next opponent?
Maia: No. We just returned from the event, and it’s too soon to talk about the next fight. I’ve just fought. Let’s see what happens. This was my 12th fight. All my other fights ended by submission. Today, it happened, and I cannot say it was an accident because he had the right strategy and punched me at the right moment. But a punch to the chin, like the one I took at the beginning of the fight, is probably the only defeat you cannot make comments about. I cannot complain about anything. Now, I just have to stand up, train hard and be ready for the next challenge.

We don't yet know how far Maia can take this MMA endeavor, but attitudes like this are a decent indication he will reliably work to maximize his potential. And that's all one can reasonably ask.

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Brandon Vera's win over The Ultimate Fighter Season 8 contestant and former IFL fighter Krzysztof Soszynski at UFC 102 on Saturday night was a much needed boost in competition and confidence for Vera. After all, Vera has gone 3-3 in his last six fights since returning to the UFC following a spat with his former manager, Mark Dion. Dion was cleared of any wrongdoings by the CSAC, but in the aftermath of everything that occurred -- Brandon Vera seems to be a man who is now suffering greatly in producing the explosive results he's used to giving fans. His most recent win over Soszynski marks his most significant win since defeating Assuerio Silva and Frank Mir back in 2006.

What exactly can fans surmise to be the problem in Vera's decline in performance? Arguably, we could say that Vera's loss to Fabricio Werdum was simply a top ten opponent who was better than him at the time, and his loss to Keith Jardine could be due to the fact that Vera just wasn't ready for that type of competition following his drop to light heavyweight.

His most revealing fights, however, come from his wins in my opinion. His battle with Reese Andy was labeled as a struggle for Vera due to the weight cut to 205 while his win over Mike Patt was an improvement. One of the problems I had in watching the Andy bout was the fact that the old Vera would have likely knocked out Andy inside five minutes due to the slow, looping shots that Andy threw during the fight. Is it blasphemous to think that the same Vera who choked out Assuerio Silva, knocked out the late Justin Eilers, and put on a Muay Thai clinic on the larger Fabiano Scherner could finish a horribly technical striker in Reese Andy?

Most fans would believe that Vera's style in the cage is indicative of a fighter who has fallen victim to being afraid to lose. Almost everyone attaches the phrase to Tim Sylvia's style of fighting, and those opinions wouldn't be thrown into the dumpster due to Sylvia's late battles in the Octagon. Hugging against the fence to avoid shots while being unwilling to throw clinch shots will get those sorts of "boos" from fans. But what about Brandon Vera?

One could make the argument that due to Vera's 9-0 undefeated reign at the beginning of his career, he's simply looking to string together some solid wins so that he can once again shock the world with a huge win over a top ten opponent in the light heavyweight division. His style, however, hasn't exuded confidence in that destiny ever happening.

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Clearly my main card predictions for UFC 102 needed work, but the show this past weekend was nevertheless entertaining. Here's the rundown:

- I open the show with discussion of M-1's Breakthrough event and Mo Lawal's hilarious post-fight interview comment.

- We take calls on M-1, Fedor and more in the second segment.

- Out of nowhere, UFC legend and WEC featherweight Jens "Lil' Evil" Pulver joins the show. He talks candidly about his time away from the cage, dealing with anxiety and depression and offers his thoughts on the WEC potentially folding into the UFC.

- In hindsight I can see the error in my judgment, but I discuss Couture vs. Nogueira and why I thought Couture was going to win.

- John "The Magician" Dodson talks about his upcoming fight with Pat Runez at UWC 7: Redemption, being discovered in Chuckee Cheese and why Keith Jardine and Rashad Evans don't like sparring with him.

- More UFC 102 breakdown here and here.

- A more detailed breakdown of Vera vs. Soszynski (the one main card prediction I got correct) with my producer Othello here. We get into a little Fedor vs. Rogers as well.

- Show wrap-up.

I was one of the many who discounted his capability before the fight, but am now forced to eat crow this Monday morning. Fine by me, really. Couture vs. Nogueira was as much as about Nogueira redeeming himself as it was about recognizing Couture's diminished capacity to perform at the highest level. But, it is worth shining a little extra spotlight on the very laudable turnaround Nogueira was able to pull off Saturday night. Mike Chiappetta chimes in:

After Frank Mir knocked out Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira last December, the whispers immediately started that Minotauro was done, that he was too slow and had taken too much damage over the years. Some even suggested that Nogueira, who was only 32 at the time, should retire.

Somehow, many of us forgot that his whole career -- his whole life, really -- has been about comebacks.

As a child, Nogueira almost died after being run over by a truck. He still bears the scars as a reminder. As an adult, he routinely takes a beating and finds a way to win. The guy has more sequels in him than the Harry Potter franchise. Sure, his hands aren't quite as quick as they were a few years ago, but his jiu-jitsu is still a loaded gun to respect and fear.

Will Nog ever capture another major title? Who knows, but Saturday night was a reminder to bet against him at your own risk.

Yahoo's Kevin Iole disagrees with me by contending age was no factor:

Nogueira was a little bit better than Couture in every aspect on Saturday, pounding out a unanimous decision in a rousing battle that was chosen as the show’s Fight of the Night. It was the second consecutive loss for Couture, but his age clearly wasn’t an issue. He was beaten on this night by a guy who was highly motivated to quiet his critics.

"I never worked in my life for a fight like I did for this one," Nogueira said. "I have a lot of respect for Randy. He’s been around for 12 years and fighting everyone and that’s why I trained a lot, so I could make a good show."

Nogueira looked like a beginner in his loss to Mir at UFC 92. He suffered from a staph infection and spent seven days in the hospital less than a month before the fight. On the day he got out, he tore the meniscus in his left knee.

The reason Nogueira is one of the most popular fighters in the history of mixed martial arts is that he’s the type of person who said nothing to anyone about his condition and came out and slugged with Mir as long as he was able to do so.

"He’s a very game, very durable guy," Couture said of Nogueira. "He has a great jab and he followed it with some pretty good right hands. I’m not terribly surprised he fought the way he did."

I am in no position to take away anything from Nogueira's performance. Judging by how well he fought on Saturday it's perfectly reasonable to suggest a younger Couture wouldn't necessarily have fared any better.

But I can't help noticing there is some obvious decline in Couture. The hook and straight punches Nogueira landed standing didn't have half the steam that Rizzo's had when he fought Couture yet did far more damage. Moreover, the reflexive speed I believed Couture had prior to the bout didn't really present itself. Couture's punches seemed slow to retract, which left him flat-footed and positionally right in front of Nogueira for a counter-attack.

Still, the massive upshot of the fight is impossible to ignore: a potential Nogueira vs. Lesnar fight now has legitimate intrigue and value in the UFC heavyweight division. And while Couture's best days are likely behind him, the carte blanche of opponents he can choose to face while he amasses even more deserving wealth is enough to console even the most disappointed fan.

It's pretty obvious Randy Couture is not retiring.  He said as much after the fight, and it looks like he will continue to fight under his new contract.  I expect him to actually fight again somewhat soon instead of taking a long layoff, perhaps by early 2010.  Long layoffs don't make sense when you're 46 years old.  

The UFC needs to be careful in how they promote Couture. Nobody in the sport delivers dramatic fights as regularly as Couture, but the magic will disappear if fans no longer believe in him.  Fans want to see him in fights he has a good chance to win, and as long as they can believe and Couture still wants to fight, then there's no harm in allowing him to continue.  That being said, here are a few options.

1.  Rich Franklin at light heavyweight:  Franklin has a tough fight at UFC 103.  If he beats Vitor Belfort, a fight with Randy would make for a great co-main event on a big show, or yet another strong main event for a show like UFC 102. Franklin has better striking than Couture, but he is susceptible to takedowns in the clinch and will not be as strong as Randy.  Randy was beaten standing by Nogueira, but he still landed some nice shots, shots that I think have enough power to at least make Franklin think twice about being overly aggressive.  I think the line on this fight would be about even, slightly favoring Franklin, so I think it is a good fight.  The winner would take a step toward a title shot at 205.

2.  Wanderlei Silva at light heavyweight:  Wanderlei Silva has yet to accept a new fight since his loss to Rich Franklin at UFC 99.  He was noticeably slower in that fight, but he still put up a good effort in defeat.  This is one of those Pride vs. UFC dream matches that may be a few years too late, but since the two are probably at similar points in their career trajectories it still makes a lot of sense.  Wanderlei has the power to finish Couture, but probably doesn't have the wrestling ability to keep it standing the whole fight.  This would probably be another one where morons would claim it's a fight nobody wants to see, and then on fight night the crowd would be going insane and they'd deliver an epic match.  

3.  Mirko CroCop at heavyweight:  Here is another dream match a few years too late, but it's still a fight a lot of fans would like to see.  It came so close to happening a few years ago, but Gabriel Gonzaga stopped it.  I believe Couture would have won in 2007, but it could be a different story now.  Mirko looked slow at UFC 99, but he had power in his hands and was no longer afraid to throw.  He was also a lot bigger, which could pose problems for Randy.  I personally think Randy should be fighting at 205 though, which makes this less than ideal.

4.  Dan Henderson at light heavyweight:  This is a weird one that I find very unlikely given their history, but Randy has said he has no problem fighting training partners.  There's a lot of backstory to tell, and it would be interesting to see two greco legends go at it.  At this stage it's a very tough fight for Randy, but Henderson has been taken down by much lesser wrestlers than Randy.

5.  Shogun Rua at light heavyweight:  If Shogun loses to Machida as most experts predict, this could be a solid fight for early 2010.  It's another Pride vs. UFC dream match.  Shogun has the advantage standing, but Randy is a lot stronger physically, and may be able to muscle him around the ring.  It's probably the weakest drawing fight of the mix, but I still find it intriguing.  It would be a good test for Shogun too, because Machida is probably going to run a clinic on him like he does to everyone else.

I should note that I'm shocked to see people suggesting he should fight Mark Coleman or Tito Ortiz next.  The entire reason Couture is a draw in the sport is the miracle story of this old guy beating younger fighters.  It's basic marketing 101 not to ruin that by putting him in with another old guy and jeopardizing his image.  There's nothing for Randy to gain in either fight at this point, both would be counterproductive.

I believe Randy is moving to light heavyweight.  He was dwarfed by Minotauro, and given the effects age has had on his chin and strength, he shouldn't be fighting guys significantly bigger than him.  At the same time, I think calls for fights with Anderson Silva or Lyoto Machida are very premature.  If Randy comes out and beats two of the above fighters in dominant fashion, then we can start talking about those fights, but right now I think there are some real questions about Randy's chin, and I don't think sending him in to fight Anderson Silva is the responsible way to find answers to those questions.

Once again, Couture has lost two fights at heavyweight and is probably on his way back to light heavyweight.  And once again, he will be counted out and deemed fit for retirement.  Can he pull any more miracles at his advanced age?  I think there is good reason for skepticism, but I also think he showed last night that he can at least compete a top 5 heavyweight in the world, and as long as that's the case I think he deserves the benefit of the doubt.

The Event:

• Live Results and Commentary -- Brent Brookhouse

• Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira Beats Down Randy Couture -- Kid Nate

• Nogueira takes decision over Couture -- Sergio Non

• Thiago Silva Finishes Keith Jardine Fast -- Kid Nate

• Newcomer Todd Duffee Sets UFC Fastest Knock Out Record Against Tim Hague -- Kid Nate

• Jake Rosholt Chokes Out Chris Leben -- Kid Nate

• Nate Marquardt Knocks Out Demian Maia -- Kid Nate

• Brandon Vera Outpoints Krzysztof Soszynski -- Kid Nate

• Complete Undercard Results

• UFC 102 fighter salaries and paydays for ‘Couture vs Nogueira’ -- MMA Mania

• UFC 102 bonuses and awards for ‘Couture vs Nogueira’ PPV fights -- MMA Mania

Multimedia:

• UFC 102 Post-Fight Interviews

• Cage Cast UFC 102

• UFC 102 in Pictures

• Lights Out Radio UFC 102 Recap

• ESPN ‘MMA Live’ video breakdown of UFC 102

• Dana White on UFC 102

Post-Fight Analysis:

• UFC 102 Couture vs. Nogueira Post-Fight Recap -- Mike Fagan

• Nogueira Defeats Couture in an Epic Fight -- Michael Rome

• The Details of Randy Couture's New Contract -- Michael Rome

• Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira Is a for Reals Threat to Brock Lesnar -- Kid Nate

• Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira silences his critics with UFC 102 win over Randy Couture -- Jesse Holland

• UFC 102 results from last night and post-fight discussion -- MMA Mania

• Natural' outcome, new challenges for headliners and more -- Jake Rossen

• Did Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira Earn A Shot At The Winner Of Lesnar/Carwin? -- Kelvin Hunt

• Couture, Nogueira show off staying power -- Kevin Iole

• Nogueira, Couture Await Next Bouts -- Loretta Hunt

• What we learned from UFC 102 -- Zak Woods

• UFC 102 Fallout -- Kelvin Hunt

• Randy Couture and Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera Talk About Their Fight -- Anton Tabuena

• Knock out Artists Nate Marquardt and Todd Duffee Talk UFC 102 - Kid Nate

• Marquardt will take Hendo or Silva -- Steve Cofield

• Brock Lesnar Had a Bad Night at UFC 102 -- Cage Side Seats

• CompuStrike Stats for UFC 102

Odds and Ends:

• UFC admits mistake in UFC 102 pricing tickets -- Zak Woods

• MMA Fans Biased Against Pro Wrestling? No way. -- Cage Side Seats

• Kids Loved Todd Duffee's Vicious KO of Tim Hague -- Cage Side Seats

• Thiago Silva has a message for aspiring light heavyweights… -- Jesse Holland

• Oregon columnist says someone will die in the Octagon some day -- Steve Cofield