FanPost

Record Drilldown: Lyoto Machida

Before I start I'd like to explain a few acronyms I'll be using:

WR: win ratio

COWR: combined opponent win ratio (add up records of all opponents, determine WR)

COWRW: combined opponent win ratio (wins)

COWRL: combined opponent win ratio (losses)

AOWR: average opponent win ratio. Its derivatives should be obvious

Alright! As a reminder all stats are sourced from the Sherdog Fighter Database and rematches are considered to be fights against individual fighters who happen to have the same record. I'm not trying to do sabremetrics here, my stats are at best MMA batting average. With that out of the way let's get to it!

Who'd He Fight?

Lyoto Machida...

beat Kengo Watanabe (8 – 13 – 3 – 1, 32%WR) by UD at NJPW – Ultimate Crush on 5/2/03

beat Stephan "The American Psycho" Bonnar (15 – 8, 65%WR) by TKO(Doctor Stoppage) in R1 at Jungle Fight 1 on 9/13/03

beat Rich "Ace" Franklin (29 – 7 – 0 – 1, 78%WR) by TKO in R2 at Inoki Bom – Ba – Ye 2003 – Inoki Festival on 12/31/03 – Franklin was 14 – 0 – 0 1!

beat Michael "The Black Sniper" McDonald (1 – 1, 50%WR) by Sub(Forearm Choke) in R1 at K – 1 Beast 2004 on 4/14/04

beat Sam Greco (3 – 1 – 1, 60%WR) by SD at K -1 MMA – Romanex on 5/22/04

beat BJ "The Prodigy" Penn (16 – 9 – 2, 59%WR) by UD at K -1 Hero's 1 on 3/26/05 - at a catchweight

beat Dimitri Wanderley (5 – 2, 71%WR) by TKO(Exhaustion) in R3 at Jungle Fight 6 on 4/29/06

beat Vernon "Tiger" White (26 – 33 – 2, 43%WR) by UD at WFA – King of the Streets on 7/22/06

beat Sam "Alaskan Assassin" Hoger (10 – 4, 71%WR) by UD at UFC 67: All or Nothing on 2/3/07

beat David "The Headhunter" Heath (18 – 7, 72%WR) by UD at UFC 70: Nations Collide on 4/21/07

beat Kazuhiro "King Kaz" Nakamura (20 – 12, 63%WR) by UD at UFC 76: Knockout on 9/22/07 – No KO's on this card

beat "The African Assassin" Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou (15 – 12, 56%WR) by Sub(Arm Triangle) in R2 at UFC 79: Nemesis on 12/29/07

beat Tito "The Huntington Beach Bad Boy/The People's Champion" Ortiz (17 – 11 – 1, 59%WR) by UD at UFC 84: Ill Will on 5/24/08

beat Thiago Silva (16 – 3 – 0 – 2, 76%WR) by KO in R1 at UFC 94: St. Pierre vs Penn 2 on 1/31/09

beat Rashad "Suga" Evans (19 – 3 – 1, 83%WR) by KO in R2 at UFC 98: Evans vs Machida on 5/23/09

beat Mauricio "Shogun" Rua (22 – 9, 71%WR) by UD at UFC 104: Machida vs Shogun on 10/24/09

lost to Mauricio "Shogun" Rua (22 – 9, 71%WR) by KO in R1 at UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2 on 5/8/10

lost to Quinton "Rampage" Jackson (35 – 11, 76%WR) by SD at UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida on 11/20/10

beat Randy "The Natural" Couture (19 – 11, 63%WR) by KO in R2 at UFC 129: St. Pierre vs Shields on 4/30/11

lost to Jon "Bones" Jones (20 – 1, 95%WR) by Tech. Sub (Guillotine) in R2 at UFC 140: Jones vs Machida on 12/10/11

beat Ryan "Darth" Bader (17 – 4, 81%WR) by KO in R2 at UFC on Fox 4: Shogun vs Vera on 8/4/12

beat Dan "Hendo" Henderson (30 – 12, 71%WR) by SD at UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche on 2/23/13

lost to Phil "Mr. Wonderful" Davis (12 – 2 – 0 – 1, 80%WR) by UD at UFC 163: Aldo vs Korean Zombie on 8/3/13

beat Mark "The Filipino Wrecking Machine" (13 – 5, 72%WR) by KO in R1 at UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Munoz on 10/26/13

beat Gegard "The Dreamcatcher" Mousasi (35 – 4 – 2, 85%WR) by UD at UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mousasi on 2/15/14

Math Math Math

Total opponent record: 443 – 194 – 12 – 7

Total beaten opponent record: 354 – 171 – 12 – 6

Total lost to opponent record: 89 – 23 – 0 – 1

average opponent: 18 – 8 (so close to rounding up to average 1 draw)

average beaten opponent: 17 – 8

average opponent lost to: 22 – 6

personal WR: 84%

COWR: 68%

COWRW: 65%

COWRL: 79%

AOWR: 66%, 71% median

AOWRW: 66%, 71% median

AOWRL: 81%, 78% median

What does that mean?

To keep things short, Lyoto has been fighting very good competition for almost his entire career. Except for a brief period fighting in K-1, all his opponents were at least highly experienced. Note that in his 3rd fight, less than a year into his career, Lyoto beat the previously undefeated Rich Franklin! He also handed Evans, Bonnar, and Heath their first losses.

As for the stats, they show that high level of competition as well. His "average" opponents are very experienced, more so than any fighter I've seen so far except St. Pierre. His COWRs are very good although not the best, which I think reflects mostly that a number of his opponents have gone through rough patches late in their careers (Rua, Jackson, Franklin, even Penn). Finally, while I don't have much data to compare them with yet, I can say that his AOWRs are better than Chris Weidman's.

Does that mean anything for their upcoming title fight? I personally don't think that these stats can be used to predict fights between people of comparable ability levels. I will note that Weidman would be Machida's biggest win, while Weidman has the scalp of Anderson Silva on his wall.

\The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.

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