UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs. Mousasi 'Just Bleed' Preliminary Card Q & A Breakdown

Photo by Esther Lin of MMA Fighting

It's gonna be a long weekend for UFC fans, and a longer one for UFC media. Why should you be watching the prelims for UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs. Mousasi in Berlin?

Hooray. More UFC cards. Whatever.

You okay? You're usually so simultaneously drunk and spry.

What do you expect? Barao was the greatest fighter to ever live, and he got obliterated. Don't you remember the last time a P4P great got beat?

Yea. I couldn't post cyborg jokes for weeks.

Just be sure to take Dana's words with enough grains of salt to fill a small ocean next time.

So this is a good card right?


So in the choice between these prelims and the prelims for TUF: Brazil 3, which one should I watch?

It just depends on what you prefer. This one has the proper main event while TUF has the better overall main card, with the prelims getting a slight edge to Fight Night 41.

So are Nick Hein and Drew Dober interesting lightweights? Dober is +105. Good bet?

Figuring out a fighter's ability is always difficult on foreign soil. The best you can do when it comes to analysis is consider their pedigree, their record, their opponent's record, and video.

In this case, Hein has a pretty solid pedigree which is likely what makes him the favorite. He is a multi-Judo champion in Europe, and even attempted a shot at the 2008 Olympics in China. As a note to UFC record keepers, please highlight the word "attempt". This does not mean he medaled in the Olympics.

Zane Simon has a very good, and very candid interview with him up on this very site. With a 10-1 overall record, he hasn't exactly been padding the stats. His last four opponents have a combined record of 36-11. He's a product of Clube do Leao, which is Portuguese for Lion Heart.

Loved that movie.

I didn't learn to truly appreciate Van Damme until he was abducted by Tsui Hark in the late 90's. Which gave rise to bizarre things like Van Damme vs. Oddjob and Desperado simultaneously.

Hein kind of looks like one of the many Van Damme villains.

He's a massive LW, so naturally, his strong base will take him far. Dober, like Hein, is a southpaw and knows how to work on the ground, but I'd expect Nick to control the fight there.

Who else? Krzystof Jotko is undefeated and 24 years old. Does his opponent at -120 sound right?

Jotko, who hails from the land of chocolate and vowel discrimination, is a solid prospect at 24.

I don't know how high his ceiling is because he's just not dynamic enough. His has some fluid grappling that I think will be enough to take out Magnus Cedenblad, but it's no gimmie. Mainly because Jotko will be at a disadvantage on the feet. In addition, Cedenblad has UFC experiene, only losing to the very good though much maligned Francis Carmont. He was last seen taking out Jared Hamman via guillotine. Cedenblad is a great bet, in my opinion. Still, if Jotko gets it to the ground, he has the advantage, and as guys like Gastelum and Dillashaw continue to prove, youth can be a variable on its own in the context of improvement.

Just talk to me about names I already know, or names with 0's next to their loss column.

Pawel Pawlak is 10-0 and just 25. His opponent, Peter Sobotta is a +165, which is probably associated with his poor UFC record (0-3) and lengthy absence. He hasn't fought since November, 2012.

But it's very much a styles makes fights matchup, which is why those numbers aren't bad. Pawel likes to keep it standing but he's not a violent strikers, nor a top notch athlete. He's a one thought at a time kickboxer, which sounds a little insulting I guess, but not my intention. My point is that he's not too threatening on the feet, but is patient. Sobotta will look to throw kicks, and eventually get it to the ground where I expect he can take it. Hard fight to predict, especially since Pawlak himself hasn't fought in awhile (November last year).

Vaughn Lee is -310.  Maximo Blanco is -210. And Ruslan Magomedov is -210. Thoughts?

Lee at those numbers is tempting, but Alcantara's attack should be more than enough to deal with Lee's offense. Alcantara is a legitimate fighter and beat a solid bantamweight in Wilson Reis in his last outing. He'll take it to Lee on the ground when it gets there.

Blanco is a great bet, which is a phrase you won't hear often. I know people have soured on him because he looked so awesome in Sengoku, against capable fighters no less, and then turned into MMA's equivalent of Ryan Leaf. But I think he matches up well with Ogle's style. Ogle is, for all intents and purposes, an effective journeyman. He's had a dreadful featherweight schedule and this fight is no different. Still, even though Blanco is a perennial disappointment, his wrestling/striking combination is the best style for Ogle.

As for Magomedov, people may remember him for his bout with Tim Sylvia.

It's tough to gauge Ruslan's talents here. I don't mean to trample on a man's grave here, but Sylvia was never light on his feet. Yet somehow, his movement has gotten worse. His knees no longer bend, and like something out of Rob Liefield's nightmares, his legs have fused to become a single operational femur...which doesn't benefit his movement in any way. The way he gets repeatedly cracked with an open right hand is kind of inexplicable even when you take into account Tim's cadaver like movement.

But Ruslan is a good striker who is quick enough to pick up wins in the notoriously awful HW division.

It's hard to say how well he'll do against Mr. Let me be your sparring partner.com.

Though I jest, I love the spirit of his (legitimately creative) website, and at age 23, he can only get better. Seems like a tough matchup for both guys, though Pesta at +175 is a bit odd. Pesta will look to gain top control, though I expect him to have lots of trouble with Ruslan getting inside. Magomedov's speed could test his chin, but Pesta excels inside the clinch, and on the ground, so it's another hard to predict fight with fundamentally interesting numbers.

Well, doesn't sound like a travesty at least.

Sounds like the current UFC philosophy.

Excuse me but Robbie Lawler is slated to fight Matt Brown. What more can you ask in life?

I can't wait, but if I may be the party defecator for a moment, Lawler will dispatch Brown quickly and without incident. Any BE reader who would like to challenge me on this is more than welcome to put their paypal account where their bandwidth is.

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