With UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs. Bader set to go down tomorrow night on Fox Sports 1, it's time to take a look at the odds for the night's card.
Unlike our past gambling posts, I'm not going to provide you with picks. I'd like to go in depth on some gambling topics we talked about on the site back in 2008 when Mike Fagan wrote a lot about expected value and other concepts. Until we talk about that, it's difficult to really talk about the logic behind picks.
So instead, let's look at three of the big fights on the card, take a glance at line movement and peep some interesting prop bets. As well as a full rundown of the odds for tomorrow night's action.
The BestFightOdds numbers listed here are the best odds across a number of sportsbooks.
One of the biggest problems with the way many people gamble on MMA, or at least the way they look at gambling, is ignoring odds until the week of the fight. This fight is a great example of this.
I still really like Glover Teixeira at the -425 to -450 you can get him at as I don't think Bader has much by way of a path to victory. But when you compare the current odds to where they opened, you can see how great the opening lines were.
Glover opened at a mean line of -225. That is a massive lesson in the importance of monitoring lines when they open and making long-term investment plays. It's not as fun or as much of a rush as getting your immediate gratification, but Glover at -225 was crazy good.
Notable prop bet: Teixeira winning inside the distance sits at -240. Bader has been stopped in all three of his losses and this is a five round fight, so there's added time for Glover to find a way to get him out.
Okami opened at +160 and shifted to +155 before correcting itself back the other direction in short order, bringing him to +230.
Notable prop bet: Fight goes to decision is only at -160 after having gone as high as -180. Okami has never been submitted and has only been stopped by strikes three times in his career, Jacare has only scored one fight by KO. Okami isn't likely to submit Jacare and Jacare's two TKO losses were kind of unusual, unlikely to be repeated.
Joseph Benavidez vs. Jussier Da Silva
In case the main event didn't already drive the point home, Benavidez opened at a mean line of -295. Bovada now has him at -600. Take early looks, shop your lines across multiple books and get in on a number if you like it, even if it means tying some of your bankroll up for a little bit.
Team Alpha Male has been frighteningly good since Duane Ludwig came on board to coach but Da Silva is a real challenge. Da Silva is a little wide open in his striking and maybe Benavidez can crack him with the striking game that Ludwig has tightened up.
Here are the full odds for the card, share your thoughts on what lines stick out to you in the comments: