G'day mates. Yours truly is currently on vacation in the Land Down Under, so today's Cut List is going to be somewhat abbreviated. Normally I take every fighter on the card and drop them into one of three categories - likely to get cut with a loss, possibly cut with a loss, or likely safe no matter what. For purposes of shortening this up a bit and getting back to my trip (ie. going to the pub down the street in Melbourne for a few Carlton Draughts), I'm just going to include the first two categories in today's post. If this lack of thoroughness angers you for some reason, I apologize.
Now, let's get on with the card at hand. UFC 165 is actually a pretty good event when you look at the recent histories of most of the fighters. 17 of the 26 fighters on the card are coming off a win. Only two are coming off a loss, which is oddly less than the number of fighters that went to a no-contest in their last bouts (three). In addition to that, four are making their UFC debut. Nine guys are on multi-fight winning streaks in the UFC, and two guys on the card are currently tied for the longest winning streak in MMA with 20 straight victories (Khabib Nurmagomedov and Renan Barao; Glover Teixeira has also won 20 straight).
And unless my calculations are incorrect, the UFC record for every fighter on UFC 165 combined is a sparkling 75-24 (4 NC). That's pretty good. It also means there aren't many people in danger of losing their jobs here. But let's see if we can find something.
Likely to be cut with a loss
Michel Prazeres - He lost his debut on short notice in a back-and-forth fight with Paulo Thiago. He was given a second chance, but a loss to a debuting fighter in Ronson would likely mean the door due to how competitive the lightweight division is.
Nandor Guelmino - He was brought into Strikeforce as meat for Josh Barnett to play with and was submitted in the first round as expected. I was surprised that the UFC brought him over for a fight, but it's pretty clear that if he loses to a debuting fighter, he'll be cut. Even if he is a heavyweight.
Possibly cut with a loss
Matt Mitrione - This has less to do with his talent and more to do with his mouth. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Mitrione get bounced if Schaub is able to beat him due to his idiotic transphobic comments about Fallon Fox earlier in the year. Yes he was suspended and fined, but a loss would be his third in four fights and when you combine that with his big mouth, he could be on the block. I personally believe he has the skills to be a mid-level UFC heavyweight, but I don't know if he has the restraint to be a company employee.
Mitch Gagnon - He's iffy at best to be on this list, but who else was I going to pick? He's 1-1 right now and has been out for a year. Bantamweight isn't extremely deep and I honestly think he'll get another shot if he loses to Kimura, but there wasn't anyone else even really close to the edge. That's how deep this card is.