Hi, I'm Connor Ruebusch. You might know me from such articles as UFN 27 Judo Chop, and other stuff.
I don't have a whole lot of experience with sports betting, so of course the guys upstairs decided to make me BE's new betting analyst. I don't know how much that says about the value of my recommended plays, but Tim Burke bet 2.5 units that I would crash and burn, so I'd say that's a pretty solid endorsement. Let's take a look at the odds!
Some tough calls here. I don't feel strongly enough about the main event to drop anything on it with such close lines. Considering how close the first fight was, it's just too big a risk for too little a reward, either way. And the line has only gotten closer over the past few days.
Clay Guida is very enticing at +384, and he's got a path to victory against Mendes, albeit a very boring one. I hate myself for it, but I can't resist putting a small bet on those odds. I really do hope Chad Mendes bounces Guida's head off the canvas a few dozen times, though.
I really like Soa Palelei here, curiously an underdog against a guy who doesn't even have a Wikipedia page. My guess is people are picking Krylov based on his 15-1 record, but that record is padded with newbies and guys coming off of losses. Not that Palelei has always fought the strongest competition, but at +182 I'm happy to put some money on a man who's claimed recent victories over Bob Sapp and Sean McCorkle.
And... for some reason I like Tibau against Varner. Varner's got a lot of hype for his unexpected win over Edson Barboza and a close fight against Joe Lauzon, but he's been painfully inconsistent in the past, and I can see Tibau submitting him.
I like Koch over Poirier too, now that I think about it. He's got the striking to put Poirier away, and the grappling acumen to avoid those chokes.
I know, I know. I pick too many underdogs, but whatever.
.5 unit on Guida at +384
1.5 units on Palelei at +182
.5 unit on Tibau at +114
1 unit on Koch at -144