UFC 164: Henderson vs. Pettis betting lines

David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

Connor Ruebusch tries his hand at betting analysis. A look at the odds for every UFC 164 bout, and some recommended plays.

Hi, I'm Connor Ruebusch. You might know me from such articles as UFN 27 Judo Chop, and other stuff.

I don't have a whole lot of experience with sports betting, so of course the guys upstairs decided to make me BE's new betting analyst. I don't know how much that says about the value of my recommended plays, but Tim Burke bet 2.5 units that I would crash and burn, so I'd say that's a pretty solid endorsement. Let's take a look at the odds!

BestFightOdds.com

Some tough calls here. I don't feel strongly enough about the main event to drop anything on it with such close lines. Considering how close the first fight was, it's just too big a risk for too little a reward, either way. And the line has only gotten closer over the past few days.

Clay Guida is very enticing at +384, and he's got a path to victory against Mendes, albeit a very boring one. I hate myself for it, but I can't resist putting a small bet on those odds. I really do hope Chad Mendes bounces Guida's head off the canvas a few dozen times, though.

I really like Soa Palelei here, curiously an underdog against a guy who doesn't even have a Wikipedia page. My guess is people are picking Krylov based on his 15-1 record, but that record is padded with newbies and guys coming off of losses. Not that Palelei has always fought the strongest competition, but at +182 I'm happy to put some money on a man who's claimed recent victories over Bob Sapp and Sean McCorkle.

And... for some reason I like Tibau against Varner. Varner's got a lot of hype for his unexpected win over Edson Barboza and a close fight against Joe Lauzon, but he's been painfully inconsistent in the past, and I can see Tibau submitting him.

I like Koch over Poirier too, now that I think about it. He's got the striking to put Poirier away, and the grappling acumen to avoid those chokes.

I know, I know. I pick too many underdogs, but whatever.

Recommended Plays
.5 unit on Guida at +384
1.5 units on Palelei at +182
.5 unit on Tibau at +114
1 unit on Koch at -144

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