This is a guest post by Bloody Elbow reader Christian Diaz, also known as RonSwanson.
Remember the WEC? It's back, in UFC form! After an eleven day layoff, the UFC has returned with a midweek card featuring former WEC title challengers Donald Cerrone and Takeya Mizugaki with the main event showdown rematching former WEC welterweight kingpin Carlos Condit and the man that spoiled his entrance to the party, Martin Kampmann. The rest of the card features a lot of fun fights and competitive matchmaking which is great for viewers at home, but slightly more complicated for those of the gambling inclination.
Here's a look at the lines for UFC Fight Night 27, or if you're not for the whole brevity thing, UFC Fight Night: Condit vs. Kampmann 2:
As a regular fight picker with a 65% success rate for 2013, and occasional gambler, I'd like to offer some input for these fights. Please bear in mind that I will take complete credit for all potential success if correct and deny everything else to the grave if proved otherwise.
I like Brad Tavares to put an absolute shellacking on Jon Jones' sparring partner and TUF alum, Bubba McDaniel, but I think at -400, there isn't much value at all to the bet on its own. Furthermore, I like Brandon Thatch to win in his promotional debut, but I'm not particularly fond of him at -201. If the line comes a little closer to even, I'd certainly take a look at it.
The fighter that stands out the most to me, in terms of potential earnings would be Takeya Mizugaki at +130. Mizugaki is a staple of the 135-pound division who has demonstrated the ability to go five hard rounds, as was evident in his decision loss to P4P-era Miguel Torres. Conversely, his opponent Erik Perez is a surging talent, having delivered violent pink slips in his two most recent fights with possible vampire Byron Bloodworth and the perpetually unconscious Ken Stone. The x-factor in all of this is that no one knows what Perez looks like against mid-upper caliber UFC fighters, this being his first test. So if you're feeling the itch, I'd recommend putting a bet on the man from Japan.