UFC Fight Night 27: Condit vs. Kampmann - The Cut List


A few fighters will need a win to stay in the UFC on Wednesday night in Indianapolis. Who are they?

The UFC is in the middle of a very busy stretch, and UFC Fight Night 27 is one of the highlights for me. While the event might look a bit top-heavy and the names on the undercard aren't ones that jump out at the casual viewer, the card is actually quite deep and has a bunch of legit fighters. 15 of the 24 combatants are coming off a win in their last bout, and only three are on multi-fight losing streaks (and one of those is in the main event). That being said, a lot of these fights come in deep divisions and there are some guys that are on the bubble. So let's see who's at risk and who's safe.

Likely to be cut with a loss

Papy Abedi - He won a super close decision over the Besam Yousef in his last fight, but was submitted in the first round in his two bouts before that. He has also moved back up to middleweight due to the tough weight cut. He once was a big-time prospect, but a loss to Andrews here might very well mean that he's on the outside looking in not long after the bout.

Jason High - We all like Jason High. He's a cool guy that interacts with fans on twitter a lot, and he has some serious skills in the cage too. Unfortunately for him though, he's 0-2 in the octagon thus far (over two stints), and dropping to 0-3 might be the death knell for his UFC run.

Zak Cummings - Lost in the quarter-finals on TUF, didn't get a Finale fight. He's getting one now against a fellow TUF fighter (from Smashes), and it looks like a classic loser-leaves-town match to me.

Ben Alloway - See above. Alloway lost to Ryan LaFlare the last time out, and a second loss in a row means the door.

Roger Bowling - While Bowling has an exciting style and always brings it in his fights, he's in a similar position to High - he needs wins. He has two losses in a row, the last one coming in his UFC and lightweight debut. The fight was exciting so he got another shot, but his back is seriously against the wall here. If he doesn't win, he's going to be fighting somewhere else.

Possibly cut with a loss

Justin Edwards - He did win his last fight to pull his UFC record up to 2-2. He even won a sub of the night bonus. But Thatch is a pretty tough challenge and a third loss in the promotion, even if they didn't come consecutively, might be enough for the UFC to jettison a welterweight.

Hatsu Hioki - I never thought I'd have Hioki in this section of this post, but here we are. He's on a two-fight losing streak (though most thought he beat Clay Guida), and dropping a bout to Elkins might mean the end of the run for the Japanese fighter. I still believe he's a top featherweight but results speak for themselves and if he's not getting them, he might end up in One FC or something.

Abel Trujillo - Nurmagomedov was way too much too soon for Trujillo. But a second loss in a row, this time to a guy on a losing streak, might just end up costing Trujillo his spot (for now - he strikes me as a guy they'd bring back on short notice).

Likely safe regardless of the outcome

Carlos Condit and Martin Kampmann - A former interim champ against a top-10 welterweight. They're not going anywhere. It is interesting that Condit is one of the few guys on the card that's currently on a multi-fight losing streak though.

Donald Cerrone and Rafael dos Anjos - Again, these guys are both at the top of the heap in their division, and are known for being entertaining. Something ridiculous would have to happen to even consider cutting one of these two.

Kelvin Gastelum and Brian Melancon - They're not going to give up on a TUF winner after one loss (especially in a different weight class), and Melancon is coming off a hugely surprising knockout win and is a late replacement. He'll get another shot.

Court McGee and Robert Whittaker - Two former TUF winners, neither with a loss in the UFC at welterweight. McGee did lose two in a row at MW before picking up a win in his welterweight debut, but they'll be given another chance either way here.

Takeya Mizugaki and Erik Perez - Mizugaki is finally on a win streak for the first time in his UFC/WEC career, and Perez is one of the UFC's best prospects at bantamweight (and he happens to be Mexican, a market they badly want to break into). Both are safe.

Brad Tavares and Bubba McDaniel - Tavares might have the quietest 5-1 record in the UFC, and has won three in a row. It's kind of weird that he's facing Bubba to be honest, but McDaniel has only gone to a decision once in his career so I guess they're hoping to get an exciting fight out of Tavares, who has heard the final horn five times in six fights. Either way, Tavares is undoubtedly safe and Bubba is pretty likely to stay as well, at least for one more fight.

Dylan Andrews - Having Australian and New Zealander fighters is something the UFC needs if they want to continue to grow down there, and they're not going to bounce Andrews with one loss. Especially with his style.

Brandon Thatch - The Grudge welterweight is coming up from RFA as a fairly hyped prospect, and he'll be given another shot if he somehow loses to Edwards.

James Head - He's still a decent prospect. He's 2-1 at welterweight thus far, and is coming off a loss to Mike Pyle. A loss to High would be hugely damaging, but his prior win over Brian Ebersole will probably be enough to keep him around for one more chance.

Darren Elkins - He may have been blown out of the water by Chad Mendes in his last fight, but he's still 5-1 at featherweight and not far off the top 10. A loss to Hioki would definitely hurt, but it wouldn't cost him his job.

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