UFC on Fox 8: Johnson vs. Moraga - The Cut List

Mark J. Rebilas-US PRESSWIRE

A few fighters will need a win to stay in the UFC on Saturday night in Seattle. Who are they?

UFC on Fox 8 goes does this weekend, and it's an interesting card. Due to injuries and other situations, the main card is likely the weakest Fox card to date. But the preliminary card has some decent bouts on it, and there aren't many fights that are loser-leaves-town matches. While 14 of the 24 fighters on the card lost their last bout, only three are on multi-fight losing streaks (with one other getting off on a No Contest technicality). Fox cards are usually stacked to the gills with fighters that have had some recent success. Not this one, but it might not lead to many cuts either way due to the up-and-down nature of many of these fighters. Anyway, let's go.

Likely to be cut with a loss

Melvin Guillard - I debated this for a while. If it was almost anyone else with the same issues, it'd be a no-brainer - camp problems, criminal charges, and 1-4 in his last five. He also missed weight two fights ago. But Guillard has been around forever, and he keeps getting more chances. Would a loss to Danzig finally be the end of the line for now? I firmly believe it would be.

Trevor Smith - He lost his last two Strikeforce fights, and there's not much reason to think he'd stick around with a loss in his UFC debut. The fact that he's never gone to decision might be about the only thing he'd have in his corner (if he didn't drop a decision to Herman, obviously).

John Albert - Getting fight of the night in his loss to Scott Jorgensen is probably why he was brought back. Albert has lost three in a row though, and another loss has to mean the door even if the fight with Meza is exciting.

Yaotzin Meza - He's got two things going for him - he was a super-late replacement in the loss to Chad Mendes, and he's from Ben Henderson's camp. But a second loss in a row, coupled with a record that doesn't look that great and a lack of something that makes him stand out, is probably going to lead to his exit from the organization.

Possibly cut with a loss

Bobby Voelker - Yes, Voelker is stepping up to the main card. Yes, he put on a pretty good fight with Patrick Cote last time out and may have deserved the decision. But he got the L, and if he loses to Lawler it'd be tough to justify keeping him around.

Tim Means - Means is in a similar spot as Cruickshank below, but without the flashy style. And Cruickshank didn't KO himself in a sauna and ruin a fight. A loss to Castillo would be his second in a row, but he's the least likely to get cut on the "possibly" list here in my opinion.

Aaron Riley - Who knew he was even still under contract? He hasn't fought in close to two years, and is coming off Tony Ferguson busting his jaw at UFC 135. It's hard to believe that they'd keep him around forever just to cut him after one potential loss, but it's lightweight. Stranger things have happened, and he's not going to be winning any titles.

Justin Salas - He's 1-1 in the UFC, but he was TKO'd by Means in just 66 seconds in his last bout. Two losses in a row against lower-tier lightweight competition might mean the door, especially if he gets finished.

Likely safe regardless of the outcome

Demetrious Johnson and John Moraga - Flyweight champion and top contender. DJ's not going anywhere, and Moraga would have to go all Paul Daley to get bounced.

Jake Ellenberger and Rory MacDonald - Both are top-ten welterweights and could be a fight or two away from a title shot under the right circumstances. They're both action fighters too. There's a better chance of Chael Sonnen returning to middleweight than these guys getting cut...

Robbie Lawler - He still gets paid a lot, but he's going to get a lot of slack for knocking out Josh Koscheck the way he did. Plus, Dana White always liked him.

Liz Carmouche and Jessica Andrade - Carmouche is coming off being a part of a huge event, and looked competitive in the fight. They're trying to build a division, so two losses in a row isn't going to get her cut. Plus, Andrade is making her debut - she's going to get another fight after this, win or lose.

Michael Chiesa and Jorge Masvidal -Chiesa is a TUF winner and still undefeated. Masvidal makes a lot for a lightweight (30k/30k) but he's a good fighter with a UFC win under his belt, and he's taking this fight on short notice. They'll both live to see another day.

Danny Castillo - I'm not personally a fan of the guy, but he's 5-2 in the UFC and is a member of a popular team. A loss to Means would hurt, but it wouldn't cost him his job.

Mac Danzig - I debated whether Danzig should be on the maybe list or not. He's a TUF winner that's 5-6 in the UFC, and he's coming off a controversial split decision loss. But two things led me to put him on the safe list - one is that losing to Guillard, even though he has looked bad lately, isn't going to be held against him too much. The other is that Danzig puts on FOTN-worthy fights even when he loses. It'd take a three-fight losing streak to cost Mac his job.

Yves Edwards - He's 2-3 in this UFC run, but was highly praised by White for how he handled the whole Jeremy Stephens situation, then went out and KO'd him when they finally got to fight. He lost a super-close decision to Vallie-Flagg last time out, but he'd get one more shot if he lost to Cruickshank. They seem to be big on the Edwards/Fisher fight.

Daron Cruickshank - I considered putting him into the maybe category, but his flashy style and two wins in the organization probably means he gets another shot if Thugjitsu overwhelms him. Plus, he took the fight on pretty short notice.

Ed Herman - He should be on a two-fight losing streak, but Jake Shields popped and the bout ended up as a no-contest. I'm sure Herman got major brownie points for going over to Strikeforce to face Jacare though, and he's been around forever so he'll likely get one more opportunity even if he somehow loses to Smith.

Julie Kedzie and Germaine de Randamie - Like the Carmouche/Andrade fight about, they're trying to build a division and they're not going to one-and-gone either of these ladies. It's interesting that Kedzie is coming in on a two-fight losing streak, though I doubt that means much to UFC brass. Especially since the losses were to Miesha Tate and Alexis Davis.

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