UFC on Fuel 10: Nogueira vs. Werdum betting lines

Esther Lin, MMA Fighting

A look at the betting lines for the full UFC on Fuel 10 card, and a few recommended plays from Tim B.

UFC on Fuel 10 is this Saturday, and I almost completely forgot about it. I mean, I write for an MMA site so it was probably going to pop up eventually, but it hasn't exactly received a ton of promotion. Usually these under-the-radar cards provide ample opportunity to make some money, and since I'm still a bunch of units in the hole in 2013, making money sounds like a really good idea. Without further ado, here's a look at the lines (via BestFightOdds):


As usual, we shall start with the main card. I'm honestly not sure what to make of the main event. Werdum's MT is much improved, but Big Nog rarely gets enough credit for his boxing. In a five rounder though, I can't see Big Nog being worth it as a dog. Hey, that rhymed.

I haven't caught up on TUF Brazil 2 yet, but I'm surprised that Leonardo Santos is the favorite considering a) he didn't submit anyone on the show; and b) he lost in the semis and is only in the finals because someone got injured. Based on nothing more than that, I'll take Macario at +190. Bad bet? We'll see. Jason High might be worth a flier at +342 as well, but Erick Silva has looked excellent against submission wrestlers so far so it's hard to bet against him.

Continuing on, a couple of things jump out at me. One is this ginger beer I just tried. Please remind me never to buy this stuff again - it tastes like Icy Hot. And don't ask why I know what Icy Hot tastes like. The other thing that I noticed was Godofredo Pepey is a dog to Felipe Arantes. I think he has a very good chance of winning that fight, and +191 is a great line to me. In addition to that, I don't normally bet up into the -250 range but Antonio Braga Neto is too good to pass up against Anthony Smith. Finally I think I'm gonna bet on Ronny Markes at -225 too.

Recommended plays
.25 unit on Macario at +190
.75 unit on Pepey at +191
1 unit on Braga Neto at -250
1 unit on Markes at -225

Last event:: UFC 160 - 2-1, +.31 unit
2013 standings: 17-26, -6.65 units

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