At this weekend's May Day Mayweather vs. Guerrero PPV, Floyd Mayweather kept his unbeaten streak alive, easily dispatching challenger Robert Guerrero with a lopsided unanimous decision win. Though some tried to argue that Guerrero could make it a fight, there was never much doubt about this outcome, and the Mayweather win was close to a formality. In fact, even before the Guerrero fight began, talk was already about what would be next for the pound for pound king.
Mayweather has been clear about his plans to take his next fight in September, and though he suffered some form of hand injury in the Guerrero fight, he's still looking to fight at that time. The big question is who will he face. And for the first time in a long time, the #1 name on everyone's wish list is not Manny Pacquiao.
That's the man fans are eager to see take on Mayweather. With the ship having sailed on the long discussed Mayweather vs. Pacquiao superfight, it's now Mayweather vs. Canelo that has captured everyone's interest. In last night's post-fight interview, Mayweather was asked if he would indeed fight Canelo in September. His answer was predictably elusive. So what do we think - will we see Floyd Mayweather vs. Canelo Alvarez in September?
Not a chance.
It's true that this is the biggest fight in boxing right now, but just like Mayweather vs. Pacquiao, this is just not a fight that is going to happen, at least right now. For Golden Boy, Mayweather and Canelo are the top two draws - the two men most capable of drawing major PPV audiences. From a business side, the gain of a one time bigger buy for Mayweather vs. Canelo is not worth the potential loss in future buys for whoever loses. Give Canelo more time to truly establish himself as a serious draw, and then it becomes worth considering - right now, a loss could hurt him, even a loss to the best.
There's also the matter of who Floyd Mayweather wants to fight. Too much has been made of Mayweather's level of opposition, with some claiming his entire career is built on nothing. That's absurd - but he is a fighter who likes to minimize risk in his selection of opponent, and at this stage in his career, he has that luxury. Canelo is a tough fight for sure, and one that Mayweather would have to take very seriously.
Finally, there's the timetable to consider. There's not a huge amount of time between now and September. When you look at the time needed to get the fight signed, begin promotion, and add in the potential hand injury and how that might impact Mayweather's training, it seems a bit tight. If this is THE money fight, it's not a good plan to rush it right now, strictly from a business perspective.
Mayweather has already begun setting the table for a non-Canelo fight, as in the post-fight PR, his team mentioned three possible opponents: Danny Garcia, Victor Ortiz, Amir Khan. None of those are Canelo. But for Floyd, all make smart business sense. (And for what it's worth, my money is that we end up with Mayweather vs. Amir Khan, as Khan is the perfect mix of name opponent who draws a crowd, but offers very little in terms of actual threat as an opponent.)
Business. That's the real rub here. From a business perspective, it's easy to make the case against Mayweather vs. Canelo. But for fans, it's the fight we want. Is that enough? I'm afraid not. Fans hoping for a Mayweather vs. Canelo superfight need to look back on the ghost of Mayweather vs. Pacquiao and face reality.
Floyd Mayweather vs. Canelo Alvarez in 2013? Don't hold your breath.