Well well well. I finally have a decent card in terms of betting, and the UFC goes and takes three weeks off. Thanks Zuffa. We're back with UFC on FX 8 though, and I hope to continue my way back to the mythical land of profit with some juicy bets on this card. There's a lot to look at, so let's get right to the lines for each fight (via BestFightOdds):
As usual, let's start with the main card. I can't remember the last time a UFC card had a pick 'em fight as a main event. Actually, I can - it was the last time Vitor Belfort was in a main event, against Michael Bisping at UFC on FX 7. I picked Bisping in that fight, but I won't make the same mistake here. Rockhold's kicks aren't going to be enough to keep him from getting KO'd here, and I think Vitor's an excellent bet at +109.
Elsewhere on the main card, I believe that Evan Dunham has some value as a dog around +175. Rafael dos Anjos has looked excellent lately, and Dunham starts slow, but I think it's a closer fight than the odds have it. I'd probably pick RDA outright, but I'd bet on Dunham.
On the undercard, a few things jump out at me - Gleison Tibau at under -200 is a pretty good bet. John Cholish is good, but he won't be able to handle Tibau's size and takedowns. John Lineker is pretty underrated right now and he's decently-priced at -140. People are putting Paulo Thiago out to pasture too quickly and he's good enough to defeat Michel Prezeres. The -160 range is a great price for him.
My favorite bet of the night (other than Belfort) is on Hacran Dias though. I don't think people really get how good he is yet and I think he can handle Nik Lentz's smother game a lot better than Diego Nunes did. Getting Dias as a dog is awesome in my eyes, and +125 will be one of my bigger bets on the card.
1.25 units on Belfort at +109
1 unit on Dias at +125
.5 on Lineker at -140
.5 on Dunham at +175
Last event:: UFC 159- 3-1, +.83 unit
2013 standings: 13-23, -7.18 units