UFC on Fuel 10: Fabricio Werdum opens as favorite over Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

Esther Lin, MMA Fighting

The Ultimate Fighter Brazil 2 coaches will meet in June, and Fabricio Werdum is the early favorite.

The Ultimate Fighter Brazil 2 has already kicked off, and the main event of the finale (also known as UFC on Fuel 10) will see the coaches face off. Fabricio Werdum and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira will rematch on June 8th, and it's Werdum that opened as a small favorite. It didn't stay that way for long though.

MMA Odds Breaker had the line opening at the following on 5Dimes:

Werdum -170
Nogueira +130

But in less than 24 hours, look at how much the line has ballooned due to early money on Werdum (via BestFightOdds):

Werdum -300
Nogueira +220

You can get slightly better odds (-288/+232) on SportBet, but wow. I'm surprised at how much that moved. Werdum (16-5) has picked up two straight wins since his return to the UFC, most recently besting Mike Russow by TKO at UFC 147 last year. He could be in line for a title shot with a win. Nogueira (34-7-1, 1 NC) is coming off a short-notice win over Dave Herman at UFC 153 in October.

In terms of betting, I would actually consider a bet on Nogueira in the +220 range. Everyone keeps saying that he's done, but he hasn't been healthy in a long time. While Werdum is clearly the favorite for a reason, I think Nogueira could get to him standing and it's unlikely he gets submitted. It wouldn't be the biggest upset in the world, that's for sure.

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