Let me get this out of the way first: Jon Jones will probably beat Chael Sonnen. That being said there is a reason Greg Jackson advised Jon to not take the fight with Chael on short notice.
Chael Sonnen is one of the toughest fighters out there. His stand-up is a bit awkward but he is not easily outclassed on the feet unless you are Anderson Silva and he can take a punch and keep coming. His opponents cannot use their striking effectively against him because they know the takedown is coming. Silva hit him with some great shots in their first fight and Chael just kept coming.
If Jon Jones believes that Chael is mentally weak he should know better. And Jones cannot blame somebody for getting caught in submissions when he almost got caught in a submission by Vitor Belfort who is not really a great guard player. If you keep taking people down and try to ground and pound them, eventually somebody will catch you in a submission. Sonnen gets people down and grounds and pounds them to a decision or gets submitted because he fights from within his opponents guard. Or at least that is what he used to do.
Chael Sonnen's downfall up until now was the "Team Quest" mentality. This team disrespects the BJJ bottom game and refuses to train in submission grappling. The truth though, is that you cannot really learn to avoid submissions unless you learn to apply submissions yourself and especially if you do not roll with submission experts. Rolling with Matt Lindland is not the same as rolling with Vinny Magalhaes.The thing is that now Chael is rolling with and getting trained by a guy like Vinny. I was really impressed with Chael's game in his fight against Brian Stann. Now he tries to pass guard and go to mount or tries to apply submissions from the top.
And we should not compare Anderson's guard game with Jon's. Anderson has great BJJ and trains with great BJJ practitioners. We just do not know Jon's bottom game and I do not respect Team Greg Jackson's bottom ground game. If it was that great, GSP would not train with Renzo's team and Condit would not call Caio Terra to train him. Jackson is a great trainer but his fighters are not that good when fighting from their back.
We should also not compare Jon Jones' striking game and Anderson's. Jones lacks the one punch knockout ability that Anderson has. Jones is good and flashy but not that effective.
I truly believe that we have not seen Jones tested against somebody who will take it to him for 5 rounds. It is different to fight for five rounds when you are the aggressor, but when you have to defend against a guy like Chael who can go full blast for five rounds that is totally different. And if Chael can go full blast after cutting weight it will be interesting to see how he performs without cutting weight.
And I am amazed how fans and MMA journalists have such a short memory. Everybody is saying that Chael is suddenly so respectful with Jones and stopped trash talking because he just knows that he will lose. Sonnen is not being humble because he is afraid. He did not trash talk and was very kind against both Stann and Marquardt and we all know how these fights ended. Actually when he is calm like this he is more dangerous.
My prediction: This fight will show us what Jon is made of. He will probably win but it will not be easy especially if he goes to fight believing that he can choke Chael just by grabbing his throat like he said on the countdown show.