UFC on Fox 7: Henderson vs. Melendez betting lines

Joe Camporeale-US PRESSWIRE

A look at the betting lines for this weekend's Fox event in San Jose, and some recommended plays.

I got beat up last week at the TUF Finale even though I only made two bets. That'll teach me for betting on Miesha Tate. Anyway, we're back with another event that's full of good fights, and that's UFC on Fox 7 in San Jose this weekend. The main card is nothing to write home about in terms of betting, but the undercard might have some good options. Here are the current lines (via BestFightOdds):

BestFightOdds.com

As I said, nothing on the main card really jumps out at me. Ben Henderson and Daniel Cormier are rightfully large favorites but not worth betting on. And I won't be betting on Matt Brown. I thought about a bet on Nate Diaz in the -185 range, but Josh Thomson is a still a tricky opponent. Actually, check that - I'm betting on Diaz at that price. It's too good to pass up.

On the prelims, there's a lot to like. I certainly wouldn't favor Darren Elkins over Chad Mendes or anything, but +545? Really? Elkins is a pretty good grinder himself and I don't mind a small bet on that. I think +120 for Lorenz Larkin is pretty decent as well. Finally, I'll be betting on Yoel Romero in the -150 range. Clifford Starks is primarily a wrestler, but he can't compete with Romero's wrestling (as long as Romero actually comes to fight).

Recommended plays
1 unit on Diaz at -185
.25 on Elkins at +545
.5 on Larkin at +120
.75 on Romero at -147

Last event: TUF 17 Finale - 0-2, -1.5 unit
2013 standings: 9-19, -7.36 units

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