It looks like Rafael Cavalcante will be the betting favorite going into his UFC debut bout against Thiago Silva at UFC on Fuel 10 on June 8th. The ex-Strikeforce fighter opened as a slim favorite yesterday, but some early betting has him further out in front. MMA Odds Breaker announced the opening line on 5Dimes at the following:
It has moved a little more in the direction of Feijao in the last 24 hours or so. Here's the current line (via BestFightOdds):
5Dimes has it slightly further apart at -180/+140, the line above is at SportBet.
Both men are returning to the sport after long suspensions. Cavalcante (11-3, 1 NC), a former Strikeforce light heavyweight champion, was suspended for a positive steroid test after his 33-second submission of Mike Kyle. He was forced to sit out a full year and his bout with Kyle was flipped to a no-contest. Silva (14-3, 1 NC) was suspended for the second time, this time for marijuana metabolites, after his win over Stanislav Nedkov at UFC on Fuel 6. That bout was flipped to a no-contest as well.
In terms of betting, I'm honestly scared to put any money on this fight. The fighters match up very well, but the long layoffs for both (and the suspensions) make it a very hard fight to predict. I think I'd lean towards Silva because of his takedown game, but he hasn't looked like the same fighter for a while now. In other words, steer clear unless you can see something I'm missing here, at least at this stage.