Ron Chenoy-US PRESSWIRE
A look at the betting lines for this weekend's UFC on Fuel 8 card, and some (iffy) recommended plays.
Hey look, another opportunity for Tim to lose money. This week's UFC on Fuel 8 event is coming to you from Japan, and it's going to take a lot of willpower for me to not bet on some of the fights listed below. Sure, I'll bet on the ones that I think I can make some money on. But I'm also a sucker for betting on my favorite fighters far too much, which is clearly not a smart thing to do when you're trying to make money. Then again, you can tell by my fortunes over the first couple of months of 2013 that making money isn't something I'm extremely good at. Anyway, onto the odds!
First of all, I like Yushin Okami in the +190 area. Like his two other UFC fights thus far, Lombard is being greatly overvalued. It paid off when I bet on Tim Boetsch. Rousimar Palhares? Not so much. Anyhow, I think Okami can use his size to hustle Lombard up against the cage and frustrate the hell out of him. And I'll take almost 2-1 on that any day.
I really, really, really want to bet on Mark Hunt and Takanori Gomi, because they're the bestest. But I honestly think they're both going to lose. I'll never count out Hunt's power so I won't bet on Stefan Struve either, and the odds are too long for a bet on Diego Sanchez. But screw the odds for a second - go Fireball Kid and Super Samoan!
Okay, let's get back to what you're here for. Weak advice. Takeya Mizugaki at -205 and Mizuto Hirota at around even are my two other recommendations. Bryan Caraway just isn't that good, and Hirota has the strength and size to wear down Rani Yahya. And...that's about it. All that's left are a few blowouts that aren't worth a bet on the favorite, and a bunch of close fights that don't have much value.
.5 unit on Okami at +191
1 unit on Mizugaki at -205
.5 unit on Hirota at -106
Last event: UFC 157: 1-2, -.37 unit
2013 standings: 4-11, -5.95 units