Joe Camporeale-US PRESSWIRE
Tim B. is back with a look at the UFC 157 betting lines and some recommended (don't listen to me, I'm terrible so far this year!) picks.
Seriously? I have to do this again? It should be pretty obvious to anyone that reads these things that the first two months of 2013 have been ridiculously bad for yours truly when it comes to MMA betting. "Disastrous" works too. "Time to sell a kidney" is also acceptable. I can honestly say that I've been betting on sports since I was 16 years old (don't tell the Canadian government that please) and I've never ran worse over a 60 day period in a particular sport. Ever. And to make it even worse, there aren't many solid options on the UFC 157 card either. Here's a look at the lines (via BestFightOdds):
The only stuff I'd even consider betting on is on the undercard since the main card is full of relative blowouts. It seems like the best value is Matt Grice at +375, because that fight is much closer than the line is. Michael Chiesa at -185 is probably next, as he's fighting a guy with a similar style (but Chiesa's better at it). I want to bet on Lavar Johnson at +125 but I can't really justify it considering the bout is so winnable for Brendan Schaub. My final bet will be on newcomer Yuri Villefort at -125.
.25 unit on Grice at +375
.75 unit on Chiesa at -185
.5 unit on Villefort at -125
Last event: UFC on Fuel 7: 0-4, -3 units
2013 standings: 3-9, -5.58 units