FanPost

New statistics from the Tibau vs Nurmagomedov fight

About the Tibau vs Nurmagomedov fight.

First it was Rogan. I thought - what the hell did he smoke to imagine that Tibau won?

Then it was Sherdog's Play-by-play, and some other journalists. All gave the fight to Tibau. Three by 30-27 and one by 30-28.

I mean, I knew the majority of mma journalists, sherdoggers as the prime example, were incompetent, but seriously?..

Then came the FightMetric.

It shows that the fight indeed was pretty close.


I was baffled by all of that, because that's not how I remembered things.

So I did and rewatched the whole fight (in 720p, 60fps), frame by frame, counting all the activity. All in all it took me over two hours... Below is what I found.

Nurmagomedov:
Strong to head: 5/21, 7/24, 4/24 = 16/69
Strong to body: 0/0, 0/3, 0/1 = 0/4
Strong to legs: 0/0, 0/1, 0/0 = 0/1

All strong: 5/21, 7/28, 4/25 = 16/74

Weak to head: 1/2, 4/7, 7/13 = 12/22
Weak to body: 2/2, 1/1, 3/4 = 6/7
Weak to legs: 0/0, 2/2, 4/4 = 6/6

All weak: 3/4, 7/10, 14/21 = 24/35


Tibau:
Strong to head: 0/16, 1/15, 2/14 = 3/45
Strong to body: 0/1, 0/4, 0/0 = 0/5
Strong to legs: 0/0, 0/0, 0/0 = 0/0

All strong: 0/17, 1/19, 2/14 = 3/50

Weak to head: 4/7, 4/16, 8/19 = 16/42
Weak to body: 8/8, 7/9, 5/6 = 20/23
Weak to legs: 0/0, 0/0, 0/0 = 0/0

All weak: 12/15, 11/25, 13/25 = 36/75

Counting was difficult and everybody would probably get different numbers. Actually I think that even I would get slightly different numbers, because of the difficulty of task and amount of decisions to make.

Example: Tibau tried a strong head punch, but Nurmagomedov put his shoulder in, the majority of power went into the shoulder and only small amount hit the head (fist redirrected from the shoulder and grazed Nurma's head). Should this be counted as a strong to body, weak to body (it was strong alright, but hitting the shoulder is not the same as hitting solar plexus or ribs) or as a weak to head? In this particular case I chose the latter.

But what's most important is that I judged by the same criterias, so the numbers for both fighters are comparable.

"Weak" strikes are pretty much for reference only as they include all the slaps, grazes and other tiny punches and touching, that would never end the fight even by hundreds and thousands. So we should really look only at the strong strikes. And there, the Nurma's dominance is clearly evident. That's especially true in the first two rounds, when Nurmagomedov pressed the action the whole time, put Tibau to the fence, tried to get him down and sometimes got very good flurry of strikes. The only things Tibau was able to do, was to defend takedowns and touch Nurma to the head/body with his hands and very weak knees.

The conclusions?

The old one: Rogan is very subjective.

The old one: Sherdog's staff are incompetent.

The new one: One should never blindly trust the information FightMetric gives. This is the first time I recheck their information as I never doubted their objectivity. But now I don't trust them at all, seeing how wrong of the impression their numbers gave...

You are free to share my report on other forums.

\The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.

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