UFC On FX 3 Staff Picks And Predictions

via www.tapology.com

Demetrious Johnson vs. Ian McCall

Brent Brookhouse: I'm going to stick with McCall here. He looked like he had trouble getting it going at times last fight, I don't think that's as much of an issue the second time around. I don't know that I like him to get the stoppage but I do like him to clearly take two rounds and get the decision. Ian McCall by decision.

KJ Gould: I was reasonably confident Johnson would win their first fight, but as it materialised McCall seemed to fight on a slightly higher level. McCall is for real, and isn't just the best Flyweight because of a perceived lack of competition. We were robbed of a sudden death 4th round in Australia, but the same sudden death format is being used this time as well so let's hope this match can be put to bed without controversy - or the UFC can stop dicking around and make it a 5 round affair to begin with. McCall by TKO, Round 4.

Anton Tabuena: The first bout was close, and this fight would depend on who can adjust better the second time around. Can Johnson handle McCall's takedowns this time, and control the pace like he did during the start of their bout? Can McCall handle Johnson's speed and continue where he left off? Hard to really know, but I have a feeling that McCall just continues where he left off. Ian McCall by Late TKO.

T.P. Grant: A chance to set the absolute atrocity that took place in Australia this March. Rematches are a funny thing usually as they almost never play out in the same manner as the first fight. I don't think Johnson wins, McCall catches him on the feet and finished it. McCall by TKO, Round 2.

Tim Burke: I'm surprised that everyone took McCall (even though I'm taking him too). Johnson knows what to expect from McCall now and could use a more wrestling-based game to shut down McCall. But I still think McCall's wrestling is underrated and that's going to be very tough to do. He better get off to a better start though. Ian McCall by decision.

Dallas Winston: I have a ton of respect for DJ's blinding quickness and footwork but I'm a big Uncle Creepy fan. My biggest concern is how low McCall kept his hands throughout the entire fight; his highest hand was at chin-level while Johnson's lowest hand was glued to his chin and his other high to protect his temple. Based on that, I don't think it's coincidental that Johnson was able to slice through a higher-volume of shots on the feet. McCall's wrestling nearly carried him through before and I think some basic adjustments to his standing defense can secure it for him. Ian McCall by decision.

Staff picking Johnson: Fraser
Staff picking McCall: Anton, KJ, Grant, Stephie, Brookhouse, Tim, Dallas

Charlie Brenneman vs. Erick Silva

Brent Brookhouse: Tricky fight to call. Silva is a good talent, but Brenneman is the kind of fighter that beats guys like Silva in a lot of cases. I think he'll be able to grind out a pretty ugly win by avoiding the strikes of Silva and controlling the fight against the cage and through takedowns and control. Charlie Brenneman by decision.

KJ Gould: Silva is a Brazilian prospect with a lot of talent and hype around him. Brenneman is exactly the sort of wrestling based fighter who can play spoiler, and I'm not sure if I've seen enough of Silva's game to be sure he has developed any kind of phenomenal takedown defense. I expect the Spaniard to go all conquistador on his ass. Brenneman by Decision.

Anton Tabuena: Another excellent match up from Joe Silva. Touch call, but I'm choosing Erick Silva by TKO.

T.P. Grant: Brenneman has played the role of spoiler in the past with his strong wrestling. Silva seems like a star in the making, but we just don't know enough about how his ground game will stack up against a wrestler like Brenneman, it will be a lot of fun to see what happens. Charlie Brenneman by Decision.

Tim Burke: Extremely tough fight to call. Like everyone said, Brenneman could definitely put Silva on his back and keep him there. I like what I've seen from Silva so far though, and I think he's going to catch Brenneman standing and then follow up with the KO. At least I hope so. I want to see another cage flip! Erick Silva by TKO, round 2

Dallas Winston: One of many difficult match ups to predict. It's hard not to be a fan of Brenneman's big heart and determination but his striking and standing defense is just not good. He'll be outclassed on the feet but everything revolves around Silva's takedown defense and options from guard, which is entirely unproven at the top level. I've given Charlie B the benefit of the doubt many times and was let down so, even though I think he deserves to be the favorite, I think Silva can load up on a fight-ender. Erick Silva by TKO.

Staff picking Brenneman: KJ, Brookhouse, Grant
Staff picking Silva: Anton, Stephie, Tim, Dallas, Fraser

Josh Neer vs. Mike Pyle

Brent Brookhouse: I wouldn't pick Neer even if I thought he could win. He won't win though, so it doesn't really matter. Mike Pyle by decision.

KJ Gould: The adopted Diaz brother versus Xtreme Couture's most underrated fighter? As tough as Neer is, I expect Quicksand to drag him down and grind him out for the duration. Mike Pyle by Decision.

Anton Tabuena: Both dudes are scrappy and gritty as hell, but I think Mike Pyle is ever so slightly better in all areas, and that will make the difference. Mike Pyle by Decision.

T.P. Grant: I'll go with Pyle as he seems slightly better in every area, but never count Neer out. Mike Pyle by Decision.

Tim Burke: I can't stand Mike Pyle. Neer's got better standup, but he gets taken down a lot. Pyle's a bit bigger than him too. I absolutely hate doing this, but I'll go with logic. Mike Pyle by decision.

Dallas Winston: Neer is a pissed off and snarling wolverine. As far as straight toughness and gameness, he's top-10 in something. His striking is as long and mean as the unemployment line and his offensive submission prowess has really taken off. The kicker is that Pyle has improved his stand up and is a pure technician on the mat. Since neither are standouts in wrestling, the clinch will play a crucial role; Pyle has the edge with takedowns but Neer has a blender of elbows. Pyle is the safer pick but I'll take a chance on Neer wobbling him on the feet or pureeing him with short elbows in tie-ups. Josh Neer by TKO.

Staff picking Pyle: Anton, KJ, Grant, Brookhouse, Tim, Fraser
Staff picking Neer: Stephie, Dallas

Scott Jorgensen vs. Eddie Wineland

Brent Brookhouse: It feels like Jorgensen's run as a possibly elite fighter in the division didn't get quite to the expected level. Wineland is a very talented fighter and a bad matchup for Jorgensen. Eddie Wineland by decision.

T.P. Grant: I'm a fan of Wineland and I think with his success in the WEC a lot of fans forget that he is still just 27-years-old. Wineland has been working on expanding his skill set and I think he will pull out the upset against a very tough wrestler in Joergensen. Eddie Wineland by Decision.

Tim Burke: Wineland showed some excellent takedown defense against Urijah Faber for the first part of the fight, and made Benavidez work hard for his decision as well. But I don't think Jorg is on the way down yet, and he'll be able to push Wineland around a bit. I've always been a fan of Wineland, but I gotta go Scott Jorgensen by decision.

Dallas Winston: Again, Jorgensen is the safe pick here as the better wrestler but he's been somewhat stagnant while Wineland continues to evolve. If Wineland hadn't slowed down so much against Faber or been pelted by Benavidez' punches, I'd take him -- he's a live dog and not a bad chance-bet. Scott Jorgensen by decision.

Staff picking Jorgensen: Anton, Tim, Dallas, Fraser
Staff picking Wineland: Grant, Stephie, Brookhouse

Mike Pierce vs. Carlos Eduardo Rocha

Brent Brookhouse: Rocha is a tough, tough guy. He's off a layoff and fighting a really difficult opponent. Mike Pierce by decision.

T.P. Grant: Rocha gave Jake Ellenberger a hell of fight back in February of 2011, but injury has kept him out of the cage for over a year. And Mike Pierce has come very close to beating both Josh Koscheck and Johny Hendricks. I wouldn't be shocked if Rocha pulled out a great win, but this is a tough fight after a year away. Mike Pierce by Decision.

Tim Burke: Rocha's a good bet at +210, but it's pretty hard to pick against Pierce here. He's just too good at grinding. Mike Pierce by decision.

Dallas Winston: Quite possibly the two most under-rated welters in MMA here. Rocha is a serious sleeper with phenomenal BJJ and Judo who has relocated to the states to train with Team Nogueira. Pierce is a fire-hydrant-shaped clinch mauler who excels at in-fighting and keeps his balance while striking. This should enable him to pinpoint holes in Rocha's wild stand up and he's too smart to get lured into a brawl. Mike Pierce by decision.

Staff picking Pierce: Anton, Grant, Brookhouse, Tim, Dallas, Fraser
Staff picking Rocha: Stephie

Seth Baczynski vs. Lance Benoist

Anton Tabuena: More experience, and has fought better opposition. Seth Baczynski by Decision.

T.P. Grant: Baczynski is another TUF veteran but he has already been cut once and fought his way back to the big show. I'll take the prospect in Benoist. Lance Benoist by Submission, Round 1.

Tim Burke: Tough fight to call. Baczynski has looked pretty good lately, but Benoist looks to be a pretty good prospect. He already handled a big welterweight in Matt Riddle, and has the ability to control the fight on the feet and the floor. I'm going with the prospect. Lance Benoist by decision.

Dallas Winston: I also have high hopes for Benoist, but his success against Riddle came through fringe-striking and Riddle is extremely hittable on the feet; the turnaround came through Riddle's size and wrestling, and Baczynski is bigger and stronger with better wrestling and striking defense. Sorry prospect. Seth Baczynski by decision.

Staff picking Baczynski: Anton, Dallas
Staff picking Benoist: Grant, Stephie, Brookhouse, Tim, Fraser

Leonard Garcia vs. Matt Grice

Brent Brookhouse: Takedowns and grind it out for Grice as his wrestling is just too good for Garcia. But I'm probably wrong. I'm wrong a lot. Matt Grice by decision.

T.P. Grant: Grice is a career 1-4 in the UFC stretching back to UFC 70. He seems tailor made for Garcia to avoid the judges for once and get a finish. Leonard Garcia by Submission, Round 2.

Tim Burke: It really depends on how Grice decides to fight. If he wants to make it exciting and trade with Garcia, he's in trouble. If he plays it safe and uses his wrestling, he can most definitely win. Taking Garcia out of his element is key, and Grice must know that another loss here will send him packing again. I'll go with the smart fight. Matt Grice by decision.

Dallas Winston: Grice is a great wrestler and should have the style to corner and contain Garcia. The comments in the Dissection for this fight unfolded in a friendly debate over whether Garcia has significant punching power despite only finishing 3 by TKO ... I say he hits hard. I usually pick against him but I feel like I'm due to pay him some respect here. Leonard Garcia by TKO.

Staff picking Garcia: Anton, Grant, Stephie, Dallas, Fraser
Staff picking Grice: Brookhouse, Tim

Dustin Pague vs. Jared Papazian

T.P. Grant: This one is an easy pick for me, Pague was on TUF but didn't win the show, so I'm picking against him. Jared Papazian by TKO, Round 1.

Tim Burke: I was actually pretty impressed with Papazian in the Easton fight, and I think he dominates here. Jared Papazian by decision.

Dallas Winston: Pague looked really good against Dillashaw, especially with his selection of leaping knees and mid-level strikes to deter takedowns. That's all I got though. Papazian was a solid striker and clincher against Easton and I think he bullies Pague around at phone-booth range. Jared Papazian by TKO.

Staff picking Pague:
Staff picking Papazian: Anton, Grant, Stephie, Tim, Dallas, Fraser

Tim Means vs. Justin Salas

T.P. Grant: Toss up fight. I'll go with the more experienced Means. Tim Means by Decision.

Tim Burke: Both of these guys have good cardio and are well-versed everywhere. I'd say Salas is the better wrestler, but Means has heavier hands. Means is also a lot taller and uses his height well. Once again though , I'm going with the solid wrestler. Justin Salas by decision.

Dallas Winston: The broadcast team mentioned that Means "comes from a wrestling background" in his fight with Trekko ... anyone know the specs there? Salas made a wise adjustment by switching to a low single against Kuivanan when his doubles were stuffed and is a powerful wrestler, but Means is on a serious roll, his height and (especially his) length is considerable for a lightweight and I think he's too crafty to just get taken down for 3 rounds. Tim Means by decision.

Staff picking Means: Anton, Grant, Stephie, Dallas, Fraser, Brookhouse
Staff picking Salas: Tim

Caio Magalhaes vs. Buddy Roberts

T.P. Grant: I can't wait for this fight, Roberts is a tough Jackson's guy and Magalhaes is a young Nova Uniao prospect. Magalhaes seems to rely a lot on his size to bully fighters and I don't think that will cut it against Roberts. Magalhaes is a bit sloppy on the feet and his wrestling isn't great. He does have a powerful grappling game and likes going for leg locks, but again they are sloppy. If Magalhaes has tightened up his technique I think he could win this, but I feel like Roberts gets the win after Magalhaes gets tired later in the fight. Bubby Roberts by Decision.

Tim Burke: There is no way in hell I'm picking against a Freebird. Jimmy Garvin better be cageside. Buddy Roberts by decision.

Dallas Winston: T.P. Grant is on the money here with every point. Roberts is a former heavyweight and 4-year NCAA football player who should have the size and skill to keep it standing. Buddy Roberts by decision.

Staff picking Magalhaes: Anton, Stephie, Fraser
Staff picking Roberts: Grant, Tim, Dallas, Brookhouse

Bernardo Magalhaes vs. Henry Martinez

T.P. Grant: Martinez did the UFC a huge favor by moving up in weight to fight Matt Riddle on short notice. I feel that the UFC is doing him a favor with the Magalhaes match up, who is coming off a loss himself. I feel like the Jackson product will be very game and get at least two rounds. Henry Martinez by Decision.

Tim Burke: Martinez looked excellent against Riddle despite giving up like 30 pounds in the cage. It will be a completely different style of fight against Magalhaes though. Martinez has the ability to keep this standing, where he should have an advantage. Henry Martinez by decision.

Dallas Winston: Martinez' stand up looked incredible against Riddle and he's also a BJJ black belt, so this should be a tall order for Magalhaes. Henry Martinez by TKO.

Staff picking Magalhaes: Anton, Stephie, Fraser
Staff picking Martinez: Dallas, Grant, Tim

Jake Hecht vs. Sean Pierson

T.P. Grant: Two scrappy fighters coming off losses. Pierson is a tough as nails banger, Hecht is a grinding grappler. I'll go with Hecht in a dull decision. Jake Hecht by Decision.

Tim Burke: Pierson all the way. Not just because he's Canadian, because he can most definitely handle Jake Hecht. He has the wrestling chops and the boxing to keep Hecht at bay. It's as simple as that. Sean Pierson by decision.

Dallas Winston: I'm actually really looking forward to this one. They're really similar: great boxing, good wrestling and a competent ground game (takedowns, submissions, scrambling). Pierson will have the length and crisper hands but he's hittable; Hecht is a former Golden Gloves boxer and I think he'll have the wrestling edge. Tough one to call that should be exciting as hell. Jake Hecht by decision.

Staff picking Hecht: Anton, Grant, Stephie, Dallas, Fraser
Staff picking Pierson: Tim

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