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UFC on FX 4 A bettors guide: The Prelims

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Dan Miller -475
Ricardo Funch +325

We have as an opener Dan Miller versus Ricardo Funch. This one is pretty cut and dry, Funch has 8 wins 3 losses, while Miller has 13 wins 6 losses. Theres one key statistic between the two though. Funch has never won a fight in the UFC. Understandable Miller doesn't have a 'stellar' record himself. Miller has only lost to really good fighters, and at that they were all Middleweights. For example: Chael Sonnen, Demian Maia, Michael Bisping, Rousimar Palhares. Funch does hold a win over TJ Waldburger who will be facing Ebersole on the main card, but that was 4 years ago. Pick: Dan Miller. His whole game should be on a different level than Funch's. He might be a bit slower coming down from Middle weight, but his level of opponent, and size should give him two key advantages along with his skill set. Finishing rates: Funch has a 63% finishing rate while Miller has a 70% finishing rate. On a 2 1/2 spread I would pick this one up.

C.J. Keith +235
Ramsey Nijem -300

C.J. Keith the new comer is welcomed into the UFC by TUF 13 Finalist Ramsey Nijem. Keith is undefeated in his pro career. Nijem has less fights and has 2 losses, but the quality of his opponents is much greater. Keiths Opponents combined record is 28wins 24 losses(one guys is 4 and 7 another is 0 and 1, 2 others are 1 and 1, only 3 guys had winning records.) Still Keith has looks quite dominant, with beautiful transitions, and pretty slick stand up. From the videos that can be found, his main weakness is wrestling defense, and sub defense. Though its hard to gauge considering who he fought. Nijem on the other hand jumped right into the UFC, going 1 and one, most recently crushing Danny Downes in every aspect of the fight. Pick: Nijem. Keith is good, but considering who he's faced and some of the drastic size differences in his fights (looks like a welterweight vs a featherweight, see Keith vs Arreola) I don't think he will have the advantages he had in the past against Nijem. Nijem has great wrestling and amazing offensive and creative submission attacks, with a bit of power in his hands. Finishing rates: C.J. Keith has a 63% finishing rate, while Ramsey Nijem has a 60% finishing rate. This is a good fight to expect it to end in a finish, Id grab it if given good odds.

Chris Camozzi +170
Nick Catone -245

We have Chris Camozzi vs Nick Catone at middleweight. Both men going 2 and 2 wins to losses in their last 4 fights, but after Camozzi lost to Kyle Noke( he got taken down in one of the most awkward ways right into mount) he was sent to Strike Force and then lost again to Francis Carmont. Catone on the other hand lost to Tim Credur by submission, and Mark Munoz by Split Decision. Nick Catone has been out for over a year though. Ring Rust might hurt him, but overall his solid take down defense and superior striking should carry him through this fight. Pick: Nick Catone. Don't bet the house, but hes a solid pick. Neither man has been quite astonishing as of late, but stylistically this is a good match up for Catone, the only thing that is suspicious is the ring rust. Finishing Rates: Camozzi is sitting well with a 62% finishing rate though Catone holds a 66% finishing rate. Though their losing finishing rates have Camozzi at 60% all by Submission, and Catone at 50% with one submission. Catones a solid bet, but the spread on if this fight will finish or go the distance is a bit vague. Avoid it unless you get some great odds.

Hatsu Hioki -190
Ricardo Lamas +150

We have great Japanese hope Hatsu Hioki versus Ricardo Lamas. Most recently Lamas submitted Cub Swanson, while Hioki dominated Bart Palaszewski in a unanimous Decision. Hioki has double the wins that Lamas has fights period. While Hioki was unimpressive in his UFC debut against George Roop, but has now come full circle as the force he has been made out to be. With wins over Mark Hominick(2 times), Marlon Sandro, Ronnie Mann, and Jeff Curran, hes earned his accolades. As well he has never been finished, ever. Of the 4 decisions he has 3 of them are split. Lamas on the other hand maintains a win win against Bart as well his biggest wins would be Matt Grice and Cub Swanson. The Swanson fight though was much closer than people give it credit for. Swanson was on the verge of a Guillotine that nearly put down Lamas. Pick: Hatsu Hioki. At these odds Hioki is a wonderful bet. -190 for a near lock is great. While Lamas is no lame duck, he leaves his neck open and his over all submission defense is weak while Hioki's ground game far ahead of the majority of his division. Finishing rates: Hatsu Hioki comes in with a 61% finishing rate while Ricardo Lamas has a 55% finishing rate. I don't expect this to go all three rounds so its a good bet for under 2 1/2, but the value is really in a straight Hioki bet.

Joey Gambino -120
Steven Siler -120

We have Former TUF member Steven Siler versus Joey Gambino. Joey Gambino is 9 and 0, while Steven Siler is 20 and 9. Siler has an awkward thing about his stand up, but hes got pretty good chin and knows how to use his size well. Gambino is much less experienced, but has looked good in every fight I found on him. His take down defense is good, and his stand up is bit more crisp and technical than Silers, his subs are his best weapon. Which is Silers most common way of losing. Pick: Joey Gambino this is a pick'em. He is undefeated he has looked great in every fight I could find. Siler tends to take hits to get his in, that will be his undoing. While This fight still is close If you have to pick one I'd pick Gambino. Though the bet for this fight is in the finishing rates: Gambino has a 89% finishing rate while Siler has a 70% finishing rate. Also of Silers losses, he has never been to a decision, he has been finished every time 44% by KO/TKO and 56% by Submission. This is a great bet that this will not make it to the judges score cards.

Luis Ramos +170
Matt Brown -215

This is a good fight to for bettors. We have Luis "Beicao" Ramos against Matt "The Immortal" Brown. Don't let the nicknames fool you. Brown is on a two fight win streak, but lets not forget hes lost 4 of his last 7, while yes that goes back to UFC 111 thats only 2 years. He also happened to get finished all of those fights. Again he is on a two fight win streak, but against Stephen Thomopson who had him in all kinds of trouble while being completely gassed. He look good against Chris Cope, but I am not sure how much that is worth. Ramos one and only UFC fight to date was against rising prospect Erik Silva where he was KOED 40 seconds into the first round. Aside from that he has only been finished two times one being the former, the other 3 years ago, and since that fight has garnered a record of 6 wins an 2 losses. Pick: Luis Ramos. He is being terribly underrated in this match up. Matt Brown is inconsistent to say the least and gasses rather quickly. Ramos is explosive, and has wonderful BJJ, something Brown seems to lack or at least forgets at time. Finishing Rates: Matt Brown sits at a steady 86% finishing rate, while Luis Ramos less than half that at 42%. While Ramos has a low finishing rate, Matt Brown gets finished a lot, and if Matt Brown Defies my statements and is winning he has that 86% I'd bet that this doesn't see the judges score card.

Brock Jardine +260
Rick Story -380

We have one fighter making their UFC debut replacing an injury ridden card versus Rick "the horror" Story. If you haven't heard of Brock Jardine he trains at Chuck Liddels "The Pit elevated fight team" and going 9 and 1 has a single loss to TUF 13 winner Tony Ferguson. With all that said he has pretty good wrestling, and has a good an alright chin, but in many ways fights like Rick Story only much less polished. As well he from what I can gather he will be smaller opponent in this fight. Rick on the other hand is on a two fight losing streak. This to many would be terrible, but Charlie Brenneman is no easy fight for anyone, and Martin Kampmann is on the verge of a title shot. Pick: Rick Story. The quality of his opponents have been far greater and has fared very well for the most part. two of his only 3 losses in the UFC are now the two top Welterweight contenders(Hendricks and Kampmann) who he was very competitive with. That plus Brock Jardine hasn't beaten a any high level opponents and while possibly could surprise everyone, after watching footage of him I think you would agree. Finishing rates: Brock Jardine has a 77% finishing rate while Story has a 46% finishing rate. Story has never been finished, and Jardine only has one loss by TKO, so maybe go for it if the spread is +110 or so but anything negative I'd stay away from on this match.

\The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.

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