FanPost

Betting against fighters who missed weight

It often seems like the fighters who miss weight are the fighters who end up losing. There are a number of reasons this makes sense.

MIssing weight could indicate the fighter:

- Did not have a successful training camp

- May be suffering from the physical effects of dehydration the next day

- Might not be in a good mental state for the fight because of stress caused by the unsuccessful weight cut and consequences associated with missing weight

- Could be going into shock from lack of apple crumble during the weight cutting process

I've often wondered if it makes financial sense to wait until weigh-ins and then only bet against fighters who miss weight. If you can get your bet in quick enough you can take advantage of the pre-weigh-in lines.

I wouldn't mind digging up some statistics on this and running a virtual scenario. For example. how much money you would have made if you bet $100 against every fighter who missed weight at a UFC, Bellator, or Strikeforce event for the past 1 or 2 years? To get that information I would have to have access to data that shows what the line was before that fight (preferable right after weight ins) and which fighters missed weight.

Does anyone know where a good place to find information about past lines would be? Also, has anyone touched on this topic in the past so I'm not reinventing the wheel?

\The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.

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