It often seems like the fighters who miss weight are the fighters who end up losing. There are a number of reasons this makes sense.
MIssing weight could indicate the fighter:
- Did not have a successful training camp
- May be suffering from the physical effects of dehydration the next day
- Might not be in a good mental state for the fight because of stress caused by the unsuccessful weight cut and consequences associated with missing weight
- Could be going into shock from lack of apple crumble during the weight cutting process
I've often wondered if it makes financial sense to wait until weigh-ins and then only bet against fighters who miss weight. If you can get your bet in quick enough you can take advantage of the pre-weigh-in lines.
I wouldn't mind digging up some statistics on this and running a virtual scenario. For example. how much money you would have made if you bet $100 against every fighter who missed weight at a UFC, Bellator, or Strikeforce event for the past 1 or 2 years? To get that information I would have to have access to data that shows what the line was before that fight (preferable right after weight ins) and which fighters missed weight.
Does anyone know where a good place to find information about past lines would be? Also, has anyone touched on this topic in the past so I'm not reinventing the wheel?