FanPost

Evaluating the Chances: Pacquiao vs. Bradley

Let's assume that judges score fights for winners proportionally similar to the boxing press and fans collected on Fight Score Collector

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via cdn1.sbnation.com

248 of the 265 member sample scored the fight for Pac, leaving a probability of .064 that any given person (and based on my assumption, judge) scores the fight for Bradley.

Using the information and assumption above, we can construction distribution of the estimated probabilities that a given number of judges would choose Bradley as the winner using a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution#Probability_mass_function" >Probability Mass Function</a>.

Those estimated probabilities are displayed in the following table.

Number of Judges Who Choose Bradley Estimated Probability
0 .8200
1 .1682
2 .0115
3 .0003

My two cents:

While the most likely outcome of the Pacquiao vs. Bradley fight would be a clean sweep for Manny, there's no immediate cause for belief that this fight was a set up. The one percent chance that two or more judges have an off night seems far more likely Bob Arum or the Mob conducting backstage deals at the highest level of an international sporting event in the twenty first century, especially (and unfortunately) when Keith Kizer of the Nevada State Athletic Commission shows little worry or resolve to fix the problems prevalent in the judicial systems in combat sports.

\The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.

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