Carlos Condit and the big 'what if?'

Seeing as Carlos Condit is headlining this weekend's main event and is fighting for the interim title, I though it was a good time to review his career so far in the UFC whilst also researching for my picks. The very first fight I watched was Carlos Condit vs Martin Kampmann at Fight Night 18 on April 1st 2009. Carlos was making his UFC debut on a 8 fight win streak (all finishes) and coming in as the WEC welterweight champion after the WEC folded that division. Carlos lost a very close split decision to Martin Kampmann that night but the thought that has crossed my mind every time I think of that fight since,is what if he had won the decision that night?

2 Judges scored the fight 29-28 for Kampamnn while the other scored it 29-28 for Condit. The third round was the only clear round as Martin got the takedown, held onto top postion and retained it when Carlos tried to sweep him. The first two rounds were extrmemely close and are good examples of 10-10 rounds in my opinion but either round could have went to either guy. Both guys had takedowns, Carlos landed the better strikes while Matrin came close to finishing with a couple of submissions.It is interesting to look at what would have happened to Carlos if he had won, but first some context. The top 10 WW's in March 2009 looked like this

1) Georges St Pierre

2) Thiago Alves

3)Jon Fitch

4) Josh Koscheck

5) Diego Sanchez

6) Jake Shields

7) Karo Parisyan

8) Carlos Condit

9 )Matt Hughes

10) Matt Serra

Gsp had already beaten Fitch and Koscheck, he would go on to beat Alves at UFC 100 and Diego would drop down to 155. It seems fair, therefore, to say that if Condit had've won he would have been propelled into the top 5 and maybe even the top 3 after Alves had lost. After Alves lost at UFC 100 there was no real clear contender to GSP's crown and the UFC were forced to rush Dan Hardy into a title shot at UFC 111. If Condit had've beaten Kampmann and particularly if he had've gotten a finish, it is highly possible that he would have got the shot over Hardy or at least placed in a number 1 contenders match like Kampmann was. As it was, Kampmann was scheduled to face Mike Swick for the next shot but when Swick got injured, he was replaced by the debuting Paul Daley who viciously ended any talk of a Kampamnn title shot.

If we replace Kampmann with Carlos in this situation I think he performs a little better. Firstly, I believe both men would've blitzed Swick (revisionist history I know). If Carlos had've been matched up against Daley I think it would have been an awesome fight. Daley was pretty unknown at the time so it's possible he could have caught Carlos unexpectedly like he did with Kampmann. I believe Carlos has a better chin than Martin however and fights smarter. I think he would have used his more technical striking for a decision or subs him if it hit the ground. That would've set Condit up as the undisputed number 1 contender and he would have faced GSP at 111 instead of Hardy. It's hard to say how Condit would have got on against GSP at this time. As we know GSP wrestlefucked Hardy for 5 rounds because he thought he was weaker on the ground than standing. Would GSP do the same to Condit? Could Condit catch GSP with a submission from the bottom? Unlikely but a 5 round fight is a long time and there's certainly the possibilty. There's also a chance that Condit caught GSP with something standing and went on to win the title. I guess we'll never know. Unless Condit wins on Saturday that is....