FanPost

UFC 144 betting

As usual I'll be taking all odds from Paddy Power, the best site in the UK for betting on MMA.

All odds are correct at time of writing.

A quick look at how I did for the last event, UFC on Fuel: Sanchez vs. Ellenberger (badly). I had advised caution when thinking about betting on the Struve/Herman, and Simpson/Markes fights, but I failed to heed my own advice and cost myself over £100 in winnings.

£10 on Roberts (void), Dillashaw, Miocic, Brookins - returns £24.07

£2 on Simpson, Salas, Simpson, Roberts (void), Brookins, Ellenberger, Dillashaw, Miocic, Menjivar - loss

£10 on Ellenberger on points, Dillashaw on points, Simpson on points - loss

£5 on Miocic by KO, Herman by KO - loss

Total loss £2.93

Now on to this weekend

Underdog value

Joe Lauzon - I expect Anthony Pettis to win this fight, but Joe Lauzon has won as an underdog before, most notably in his UFC début against lightweight legend Jens Pulver, and last time out against Melvin Guillard, who looked like he was on an unstoppable run to the title. Lauzon's best attribute is his attack from top-control, and if he can gain dominant position he might have a chance. Pettis is hard to hold down, and even harder to submit, but considering the odds of 15/8 it might be worth a look.

Vaughn Lee - When I first saw this match-up between Norifumi 'Kid' Yamamoto and unknown British bantamweight Vaughn Lee, my mind immediately cast itself back to Kid's fight with FedericoLopez in DREAM. Lopez had a 4-2 record from the U.S. regional circuit and was on a 2 fight losing streak. The fight was made to guarantee the Japanese superstar a win after he'd gone 2 fights and over 2 and a half years without tasting victory. Lee is 11-7 with only one fight in the UFC, and one loss. However, his record may be slightly misleading seeing as three of his losses were in his first three fights.

At this point 'Kid' Yamamoto seems to be out of love with MMA. Several sources indicate that he does not train as hard as he should at his own Krazy-Bee gym, and he is surrounded by 'yes men' in his camp that don't push him hard enough. One can excuse a loss to Demitrious Johnson, as no-one was quite sure about how good 'Mighty Mouse' was at that point, but 'Kid' was an overwhelming favourite against Darren Uyenoyama, and he blew that too.

'Kid' has claimed he has dealt with injuries that affected him in his previous fights, and if that is the case he should whip Lee all over the octagon, so I wouldn't advise piling too much money money on the underdog seeing as he is only 11/5. He could be part of a pretty sexy accumulator though.

Eiji Mitsuoka - For similar reasons to the Kid fight, don't count out Mitsuoka. He is a featherweight facing off against a huge lightweight, and heavy favourite in Gomi. However, Gomi is a shadow of the fighter he was when many considered hi one of the bet pound-for-pound fighters in the world back in the PRIDE days. I am still tempted to back Gomi, but I am told that Mitsuoka is a good featherweight, and could have the tools to upset 'The Fireball Kid' if he is not on point. At 6/4 he'd be worth putting in a double

Yoshihiro Akiyama - Will Akiyama finally find success at 170 pounds? If he can stop Shield's takedown and hit him har early, we could have an upset on our hands. At 15/5 or 8/1 by knockout a speculative bet could earn big rewards.

Other Markets

Decisions

Edgar to beat Henderson at 7/5 - Both fighters are apparently impossible to hold down and submit, or be knocked out if previous fights are anything to go by.

Oakmi to beat Boetsch at 4/7 - Okami is a grinder, and only tends to finish opponents if he completely outclasses them. Boetsch is solid and should be tricky to finish.

Mizugaki to beat Cariaso at 5/6 - Both fighters have gone the distance in all but one of their fights under the Zuffa banner thus far. I can't see that changing

Pettis to beat Lauzon at 21/10 - Joe Lauzon has never gone the distance in a fight, but I can't see either men finishing the fight thank's to each fighter's durability and submission defence.

Other worthwhile options

Rampage to KO Bader at 17/10

Kongo to KO Hunt at 5/4, or decision at11/5

Hatsu Hioki to submit Paleszewski is 6/1! Crazy odds for such a talented grappler. Playing it safer, if you think 'Bartimus' can survive and reach a decision odds are 5/4

DO NOT bet against...

Yushin Okami - The Japanese stand out may have had a tough fight in Rio last August as he was knocked out in the second round, but he was facing the best fighter of all time. Anderson Silva appeared to be toying with Okami, and looked to be able to finish him whenever he wanted, but the same can be said for most of The Spider's other opponents, including light-heavyweight Forrest Griffin. Okami is exactly the kind of opponent that forced Tim Boetsch to move down in weight. Someone who can out-muscle him and push him against the fence and take him down. Okami is pretty close to light-heavyweight size and should banish many of the memories of his shot at the title on Saturday night. Okami is completely justified as a 2/7 favourite.

My Picks

Once again, its a card where you're probably going to find most value betting on the favourites in an accumulator of sorts, though I would suggest caution with Shields and Gomi. Despite their value as underdogs I still expect Lee and Lauzon to be defeated.

Accumulator of Hioki, Mizugaki, Okami, Kongo, Rampage, Edgar

Pettis, Mizugaki, Okami and Edgar on points

Hioki by submission

Akiyama by KO

and probably a couple more 4/5 fight accumulators on favourites, let's see how much I get paid tomorrow



\The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.

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