UFC 144: Edgar Vs. Henderson Betting Lines
by Tim Burke on Feb 21, 2012 8:00 PM EST
in UFC Gambling
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So, my Vagner Rocha underdog pick at UFC on Fuel didn't exactly pay off. Actually, it got knocked out. For UFC 144, there's really not a lot going on betting-wise. I won't comment on the main event because I don't really see any value in either side. The same goes for the co-main. Is there value in Mark Hunt at +230? As much as I hate to say this (Go Hunt!), there probably isn't. In fact, the whole main card is somewhat devoid of value to be honest.
Things get a little better on the undercard. I like Mizugaki at -200. There could possibly be some value in Steve Cantwell at +195 since Fukuda is coming off some injuries and has been out for a year, but the more I look at it, the more I want to shy away from it. And I refuse to say that Mitsuoka is good value against Gomi at +175 because Gomi is the Fireball Kid and cannot be beaten (I don't want to hear your lies about Diaz/Guida/Florian. It never happened).
Anyway, here's a look at the UFC 144 lines (undercard after the jump):
Lines courtesy of www.bodog.ca
Main Card:
Frankie Edgar (14-1) -130 vs. Ben Henderson (15-2) EVEN [LW Title]
Quinton "Rampage" Jackson (32-9) -260 vs. Ryan Bader (13-2) +200
Mark Hunt (7-7) +230 vs. Cheick Kongo (17-6-2) -300
Yoshihiro Akiyama (13-4, 2 NC) +230 vs. Jake Shields (26-6-1) -300
Anthony Pettis (14-2) -250 vs. Joe Lauzon (21-6) +195
Yushin Okami (26-6) -450 vs. Tim Boetsch (14-4) +300
Hatsu Hioki (25-4-2) -195 vs. Bart Palaszewski (36-14) +155
Preliminary Card:
Takeya Mizugaki (15-6-2) -200 vs. Chris Cariaso (12-3) +160
Norifumi Yamamoto (18-5, 1 NC) -400 vs. Vaughan Lee (11-7-1) +300
Riki Fukuda (17-5) -250 vs. Steve Cantwell (7-5) +195
Takanori Gomi (32-8, 1 NC) -225 vs. Eiji Mitsuoka (18-7-2) +175
Tiequan Zhang (15-2) -300 vs. Issei Tamura (6-2) +230
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I think
that this is the first time that Frankie is the favorit
Crazy to think this is the first time he’s been favored, and it’s his fourth defense.
I rarely tweet
"I ain't having it" - Buster Posey, hosing folks down
Nooo
he was favored against Maynard in his last bout
Ben Henderson @ even money is pretty solid
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Edgar is free money
Fight probably won’t be that close.
by deliberately tuna on Feb 21, 2012 8:15 PM EST up reply actions
lol
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by halitosis on Feb 21, 2012 9:37 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I'm betting Bendo don't get me wrong
But would you be shocked if it turned out to be Edgar 50-45 across the board
by Jesus H. Christ on Feb 21, 2012 10:24 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed
I don’t think Edgar is going to put a beating on Bendo, but I think he’s going to stay on his bike and do enough in a lot of rounds to take a pretty easy decision.
by MS_Dos_Santos on Feb 21, 2012 11:14 PM EST up reply actions
Also, Mitsuoka gon sub Gomi
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by halitosis on Feb 21, 2012 9:37 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
nobody listens to me dude
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by Earl Montclair on Feb 21, 2012 9:54 PM EST up reply actions
puttin money down on the sexy
im hoping the drop to 170 has increased his gas tank to at least the 2nd round.
"he will have a two pound reach advantage"- mike goldberg
its very rare that dropping weight increases anyones gas tank
the only fighter i can think of that happening to is Bj Penn because he comes to fight at 155 in better shape then 170. Other then that it makes no sense to me.
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and by dropping weight i mean weight classes, not heavyweights
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thats exacrly my point...the sexy is going to be showing up in much better shape at a lower weight class
he is a 5’8 japanese male…his frame is deffinitly not suited to carry 185 pounds of bulk. Looking at all his fights in the ufc so far, i always noticed how disproportional his arms looked to his torso; the forearms seemed far too petite compared to the rest of him. That, combined with the fact that the sexy being a tactical genius and already doing at least one trial weight cut, has me convinced that his judo base and never ending agression will see him edging out shields in a grinding, hard fought descision
"he will have a two pound reach advantage"- mike goldberg
by mattsterguy on Feb 21, 2012 8:17 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I think Shields subs him late and successfully completes Joe Silva's mission to destroy something beautiful
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by Earl Montclair on Feb 21, 2012 8:19 PM EST up reply actions
to hell with that. The sexy loves himself a good story line
three consecutive, convincing losses, followed by a destructive and savage run all the way to the 170 pound strap- you can add kick ass future producer/dirrector to the sexy’s list of unrivalled achievements
"he will have a two pound reach advantage"- mike goldberg
Or not.
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by Unabomberman on Feb 21, 2012 11:37 PM EST up reply actions
someones a sad sad realist. stop it right now
"he will have a two pound reach advantage"- mike goldberg
by mattsterguy on Feb 22, 2012 12:09 AM EST up reply actions
prediction:
Every Japanese fighter on the prelim card who loses will be cut.
follow me on twitter @polyh3dron
except Mizugaki
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by Earl Montclair on Feb 21, 2012 8:08 PM EST up reply actions
Well Mizugaki will win. Cariaso doesn't stand much of a chance.
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by AwkwardwithwordmakingisGoldberg,huhJoe on Feb 22, 2012 2:53 AM EST up reply actions
who thinks every japanese fighter on the main card loses?
"he will have a two pound reach advantage"- mike goldberg
not me
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by Earl Montclair on Feb 21, 2012 8:08 PM EST up reply actions
Nope, Hioki will cruise to a decision over Bartimus.
I think Okami will have a tough time with Boetsch but can see him being ahead on the cards too.
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hell no
Bart is got that easy are kidding me
by Austin Broussard on Feb 22, 2012 12:50 PM EST up reply actions
Where do these lines come from? I want to lay money on Mark Hunt!
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by mountaineers101 on Feb 21, 2012 8:08 PM EST reply actions
This fight actually has me conflicted
Hunt probably has a better ground game than Pat Barry (holy shit did I just say that?) and Barry was able to tag and beat the breaks off of Kongo.
At the same time, Kongo just needs one takedown to make Hunt look average.
by discoandherpes on Feb 22, 2012 12:24 AM EST up reply actions
Hunt’s takedown defense really isn’t all that bad; the problem is that he has zero submission defense. He was the one who took down Overeem in their fight, for example. Kongo doesn’t really have much of a sub game, at least that I’ve seen. It may just be sentimentality but I’m kinda leaning toward Hunt.
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by Patrick Wyman on Feb 22, 2012 2:33 AM EST up reply actions
Agreed.
Hunt is going to win via TKO!
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by mountaineers101 on Feb 21, 2012 8:13 PM EST reply actions
hes still better then Vaughn Lee
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by mountaineers101 on Feb 21, 2012 8:15 PM EST up reply actions
Yamamoto is getting UD'd 30-27
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by Earl Montclair on Feb 21, 2012 8:18 PM EST up reply actions
STOP TELLING
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by halitosis on Feb 21, 2012 9:40 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Well he just got tooled by a flyweight
So Lee may not be good (he isn’t), but Yamamoto is totally shot.
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by mountaineers101 on Feb 21, 2012 8:17 PM EST up reply actions
Rampage is about to make his comeback and start shutting down the whole division again.. he’ll get another chance to fight for that title
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by psychoblack on Feb 21, 2012 8:22 PM EST via mobile reply actions 21 recs
insta greened
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by Earl Montclair on Feb 21, 2012 8:23 PM EST up reply actions
Explosive in his recs per comment is psychoblack, Earl.
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by Zachary Kater on Feb 21, 2012 8:49 PM EST up reply actions
this greening bizness.....
is kinda getting old brosefs, i see what you guys are doin, but still.
by carmine99 on Feb 21, 2012 11:21 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Green never ever EVER gets old.
Pat Barry made a wrestle - some schmuck in texas
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by Chris Hall on Feb 22, 2012 12:22 AM EST via Android app up reply actions
I echo carmine99's thoughts
I mean, it’s cool that psychoblack is loyal and adamant about the fighters he supports and believes in, but that’s about the limit of it. I guess I’m not as cultured as you folks or somethin’.
I now have a signature statement. Behold!
So he can slap himself for accepting a fight with Jon Jones again?
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by mountaineers101 on Feb 21, 2012 8:25 PM EST up reply actions
rampage was faded long ago by the nightmarish kicks of Griffin...of the Forrest variety of course.
the only time he gets to wear the belt again is when hes playing jon jones in the film about bones’ carreer
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by mattsterguy on Feb 21, 2012 8:28 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Nah, Phil Davis has that role locked.
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by VenusBlue on Feb 21, 2012 9:02 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
"You bet your gosh darn rear end I do"
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by Earl Montclair on Feb 21, 2012 9:06 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
loving that sig
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Honestly
That is probably the only thing Chael Sonnen has ever said that I think is totally awesome.
I thought Lay N Pray was a stupid insult until I watched Tyron Woodley fight.
20 recs disagree
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by Horselover Fat on Feb 22, 2012 9:57 AM EST up reply actions
Time to put money on Bader, then.
I’d never give him a chance against Rampage, but seeing you forecast a “run through the division” for a fighter pretty much guarantees an embarrassing loss.
Boetch at + 300
I’ll take that.
by Buddy Revell on Feb 21, 2012 8:26 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Really...
I’m pretty wary of picking against Okami when it’s against anyone not named Sonnen or Silva. I like Boetch, but not against Yushin. At all.
by Atomic Salmon on Feb 22, 2012 12:44 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
This is a very big night for the WEC
Pettis is a favorite and he arguably shouldn’t be, and a loss would seriously derail any title hopes for the near future.
Bartimus dropped to 145, knocked out Tyson Griffin (he missed weight, didn’t he?), and now if he wins against Hioki he has a serious case for #1 contender.
Bendo could really increase the WEC’s LW division cred if he can beat Edgar and become an unlikely champion.
Let’s see if they take advantage.
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We’re gonna have a new lightweight champion Sunday. I see Edgar standing with bendo for a while but once he feels bendos power, hes gonna shoot and get kneed and put on queer street Then Bendo claps on a guillotine from hell and puts Edgar 2 sleep.
by MMA214 on Feb 21, 2012 8:28 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Bendo has almost no power on the feet. If Henderson wins it'll be through his strength and submission skills.
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I think he has power, just hasn’t showed it much. He dropped guida like twice who’s known to have a strong chin. Either way Bendos putting him 2 sleep
by MMA214 on Feb 21, 2012 8:35 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Ben Henderson has 2 career KOs
One was Shane Roller, who is an unranked LW, and someone else in regional circuits.
Dropping Guida twice? You make it sound like it’s rare. Off the top of my head, Sanchez, Florian, and Huerta all knocked him down.
Henderson’s boxing is not very good. His ground and pound if anything is what’s vicious.
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doesn’t matter bendo still puts a beating on Edgar
by MMA214 on Feb 21, 2012 8:43 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I have a feeling like it's going to be like Cerrone-Diaz
Cowboy has had superficially good looking striking against a lot of guys and seemed to be a good all-round fighter, but when he faced real boxing against Diaz, he got clowned.
Edgar will pick Benson apart quite easily, IMO.
by paythefighters on Feb 21, 2012 9:54 PM EST up reply actions
Guida gets dropped a lot
Just recovers pretty quickly.
by discoandherpes on Feb 22, 2012 12:26 AM EST up reply actions
And it concerns me that Guida was able to land and drop Bendo
Guida isn’t a very good offensive fighter.
by discoandherpes on Feb 22, 2012 12:27 AM EST up reply actions
I feel like you've never watched Henderson or Edgar fight before.
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by Richard Wade on Feb 21, 2012 8:34 PM EST up reply actions
I have maybe I’m just blinded because im a huge bendo mark.
by MMA214 on Feb 21, 2012 8:37 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Edgar is going to pick Ben apart on the feet. Henderson needs to get the right to the ground, and not end up on his back.
by Hardcharger on Feb 21, 2012 8:52 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Edgar's striking is dependent on his quick takedown threat
Bendo has some of the best takedown defense in the division and is incredible in scrambles. And he definitely has the gas tank to go 5 rounds with Frankie. I don’t know that I’d favor him, but he’s a very live dog.
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It is the same Edgar who beat Maynard, a better wrestler than Henderson who is a also a better striker, with more power in his hands, and all the size and strength that Henderson has.
by Hardcharger on Feb 22, 2012 11:24 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
a very fair point
But Henderson is good at getting wins, and if he can get hold of Frankie he may very well be able to muscle him. I think Edgar deserves to be favored, but the line should be, and is, close.
I consider myself a softcore fan.
Henderson will stay standing only as long as he needs to until he can get hold of Edgar & impose his massive size/strength advantage. Once he takes Frankie down, it will be GNP time until he can latch on to that neck. Benson by RNC in Round 4.
by Velcro on Feb 21, 2012 11:28 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I was gonna say
People expecting anything but a grappling war have not been paying attention to Hendersons UFC run.
Bocek outgrappled, Miller out grappled, Guida out grappled.
He’ll stand a little with Edgar but he’ll get him down. For some reason though I see Edgar getting clipped and/or caught in a Tine in the 4th as well.
Those are 3 fighters who emplyee grappling based games.
Frankie Edgar is not of the same ilk. Yes, he likes to hit a few takedowns, but he’s not a grinding wrestler. He prefers to use quick foot work and movement to strike his way to victory.
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I keep going back to this thought
What does Ben Henderson do better than Gray Maynard?
Less power, worse boxing, worse takedowns, better GnP, better scrambling, better submissions.
How can a fighter who will have a very, very hard time getting the fight down capitalize on his strengths? How will he set up TD’s when he is constantly being jabbed in the face?
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If Guida (a guy who could fight at featherweight)
could get Bendo down, I think Edgar could do the same.
by discoandherpes on Feb 23, 2012 4:53 AM EST up reply actions
Whatever line is on Tamura, I'll put (Fake) money on it
If he has guillotine choke defense, he wins.
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Very little value here
I like Hunt at +230 and Lauzon at +200; maybe Hioki at -200. Everything else is just about right.
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Mark Hunt
If he didn’t fight Josh Barnett, then Fedor, then Overeem, then Manhoef, then Mousasi, he’d be 7-1 with his only loss being a fluke submission to McCorkle. This is how I see him. Life is better this way.
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by Not Hauser on Feb 21, 2012 9:05 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I wish he ko’d Mccorkle.
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by Chris Groves on Feb 21, 2012 9:29 PM EST up reply actions
He had a rough run over there in Japan before he got over to the UFC, but it was against top competition. Only the Manhoef loss is a little damning, but he can KO anyone (even Mark Hunt!). McCorkle.. I’ve blocked that one out of my memory.
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by Horselover Fat on Feb 21, 2012 10:02 PM EST up reply actions
I just rewatched the Manhoef fight.
It was like 20 seconds. Man that was painful.
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Yeah, he ran right into that right hand.
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by Horselover Fat on Feb 22, 2012 10:01 AM EST up reply actions
thanks for letting us know about the 144 countdown on FUEL, BE
I missed the first 15 minutes of it.
why don’t you guys do the countdown discussion threads anymore?
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I might have to put some money
On Hunt and Lauzon.
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by Genki Sudo's Choreographer on Feb 21, 2012 9:18 PM EST reply actions
Riki Fukuda over Cantwell all day
Fukuda at -250 is a steal
the odds on Cantwell should be +400.. he’s really, really not a UFC fighter anymore. he needs to hit the regional circuit and regain his mojo.
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Cantwell’s actually not that bad, and Fukuda is coming off a nasty car accident injury.
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Steve Cantwell?
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by Sugel Mendoza on Feb 22, 2012 12:01 AM EST up reply actions
Oh god
I would have gone with “Can’t-fight-well”
"I want to tell me what you see, let's go ahead and see by the fight, what you saw, in the ring."
by Horselover Fat on Feb 22, 2012 10:01 AM EST up reply actions
Seconded.
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by NickRingp4pGOAT on Feb 22, 2012 1:14 PM EST up reply actions
I'm excited for this card
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by KMcCaig on Feb 21, 2012 9:35 PM EST reply actions 4 recs
Me too
I mean, he caught so much crap for not having ‘UFC caliber victories’ heading into his Guillard fight…I loved that he pulled off the upset.
Wouldn’t mind seeing him do it again.
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by Chris Groves on Feb 21, 2012 9:59 PM EST up reply actions
Fools!
Vaughn’s gonna show why Kid Yamamoto shouldve stayed in school
Forget this striking shit, let's hug each other!
Tim, always say the same thing
Every card you say you don’t see much worth betting on. Any experienced MMA bettor can find plenty of value in any UFC card. Don’t talk about gambling if you don’t know what you are saying.
by littlebillywalters on Feb 21, 2012 10:06 PM EST reply actions
“not much going on” “I don’t see much value” You use these phrases repeatedly.
by littlebillywalters on Feb 21, 2012 10:09 PM EST reply actions
/
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by Earl Montclair on Feb 21, 2012 10:12 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
I will give you one….If the favorite is between -225 and -350 and has won a majority of his fights by decision, take the over.
by littlebillywalters on Feb 21, 2012 10:14 PM EST reply actions
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Team Captain for Ruining Your Special Night. That's what we do.
I have claimed the team name "Apologizing For My Pornographic Past" for BECW Season 3
"Just call me the gals guide gal." - RolloTomasi
by Earl Montclair on Feb 21, 2012 10:17 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Well done Earl
Pat Barry made a wrestle - some schmuck in texas
I don't know more about MMA than you, I just act like it at HeadKickLegend
Follow me on Twitter @chris81203
Are you familiar
With the concept of value?
Proud member of The Voices in Paul Harris' Head, BECW Season 2.
"By doubting we come to inquiry and by inquiry we perceive the truth." -- Abelard
by Patrick Wyman on Feb 21, 2012 11:15 PM EST up reply actions
How are Edgar and Benod even? I have never seen that in a title fight before.
Fuck you, double fingers
- Nick Diaz
Clothes make the man. Naked people have little or no influence on society
- Mark Twain
by TheLastEmpress on Feb 21, 2012 10:15 PM EST reply actions
and what about the "Kid"?
He looked atrocious in his last fight. There is absolutely no reason he should be -400 against Lee.
by littlebillywalters on Feb 21, 2012 10:17 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Lee looked good in his last fight. Kid has looked terrible lately and has lost 4 out of last 5, with his only win coming against a tomato can. Here is some more advice. Don’t live in the past. Lee is not great but more than held his own against a legit UFC fighter in his last outing. Kid is a shell of his former self and doesn’t even belong in the UFC. He will most likely lose and then get cut. This line is an obviously wrong.
by littlebillywalters on Feb 21, 2012 10:43 PM EST reply actions
Lee kinda looked like complete balls in his last fight.
"Someone is WRONG on the internet. What do you want me to do? LEAVE? Then they'll keep being wrong!"
-Randall Munroe
From what I remember he looked good on the feet in the first
And then just got controlled for the rest of the fight.
WAR Chris Lytle!
by AwkwardBoner on Feb 21, 2012 11:20 PM EST up reply actions
There’s a reply button there. Use it to respond, it streamlines the conversation.
Chris Cariaso isn’t a very good grappler. He mounted Lee FIVE TIMES in that fight. Kid is not who he used to be, but he has better standup and better takedown defense than Chris Cariaso. Darren U did turn Kid inside out, but Darren’s an awesome grappler. No excuses for Kid, he lost bad – but he was given this fight in Japan because it’s the best possible fight for him in the UFC. Oddsmakers know that.
"I don't know where this term "training camp" in MMA came from. There's no campground. There's no tents." - Nick Diaz
My twitter: @TB_Money
Still have big money dropped on Shields.
I honestly have faith in him in that fight, I just don’t know why completely. I was going to throw some cash down on Rampage, given the “home field” advantage, but Baders wrestling makes me shaky about doing that. I could honestly see him decisioning ‘Page, he just looks too slow these days.
P.S. Don’t tell PB I said that. He’ll fade my ass.
Amateur MMA Record: 2 Wins, 1 Loss...
Keep Pushing Forward.
Rampage is a better wrestler than Bader
I think your money is fine.
by discoandherpes on Feb 22, 2012 12:29 AM EST up reply actions
Pretty much
I don’t see Bader hitting a knee tap anytime soon.
by discoandherpes on Feb 22, 2012 1:45 AM EST up reply actions
Go ahead and bet on Rampage, I don't think Bader's got much for him.
Quinton can handle blast doubles and a big right hand.
BECW season 2 member of the Intellegent Northern English Picking Team.
NORTHERN ENGLISH, MUTHERFUKER DO YOU SPEAK IT?
Draft number: 72.
by Sweet Scientist on Feb 22, 2012 7:10 AM EST up reply actions
over/under
2 nutshots by kongo in this fight ?
I'm still not 100% sure I'm prepared for the kind of drunk I'm going to be for a 7 fight main card.
Pat Barry made a wrestle - some schmuck in texas
I don't know more about MMA than you, I just act like it at HeadKickLegend
Follow me on Twitter @chris81203
Head to edgehogs.com/mma to make picks for the event
Whoever wins the challenge gets a free UFC 145 pay-per-view
My playground pick, I'm picking Edgar for the sake of the prediction but hoping Henderson wins
"When you believe in something and you're a good person...things happen" - Junior Dos Santos
Save a little bit for a tent just in case
Okami is taller and throws nice clean straight punches that could probably frustrate Tim from range. Boetsch matches up decently with Okami especially if he can get inside and use his power punches and judo throws. Okami by decision is the most likely result, but at those odds Boetsch is a sensible bet.
I consider myself a softcore fan.
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