The time is right for a superfight, and it doesn't involve Anderson
by Patrick Wyman on Feb 12, 2012 12:55 AM EST
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These aren't the kinds of posts I usually write, but an idea struck me and I thought I'd put it out there for discussion.
Although calls for a superfight between GSP and Anderson or Jon Jones and Anderson have petered out recently, due to GSP's knee injury and the attendant opening of the welterweight division on the one hand and the reemergence of Chael Sonnen as a title challenger on the other, that doesn't mean that there isn't a viable superfight out there. Ladies and gentlemen, I present you with Frankie Edgar vs. Jose Aldo.
If there's ever a time to make this fight, it's right now. Is anybody (the UFC brass included) really all that excited about the prospect of seeing Aldo vs. Hioki? Well, assuming he beats Palaszewski, he's just about the only viable option, other than a still-too-green Erik Koch or the KZ-Poirier winner; the last fight is still three months away, and I'd make the argument that the winner still needs another fight after that, not so much for the sake of credibility but because they both desperately need the time to further develop their skills.
The best part of this idea is the fact that it works regardless of whether or not Frankie beats Bendo in two weeks. If he wins, there's no immediate contender for a lightweight shot; the best bet is the Diaz-Miller winner, and again, that fight is still almost three months away. Frankie could easily meet Aldo at a catchweight of 150, given Aldo's firm lack of intention to move to LW in the near future.
Alternatively, if Bendo wins, the calls for Frankie to drop to 145 (which have been voiced by Dana White, the most important opinion of all) will come again. In this scenario, Frankie's status as a former champion with three title defenses under his belt (the Maynard draw still counts as a defense) along with the idea that 145 is a more natural weight class for him could catapult the diminutive fireplug into an immediate title shot at FW.
I don't feel like I need to go into much depth on exactly why this fight would be awesome for the fans. For the UFC, however, it offers a number of benefits. First and foremost, it could draw significant media and casual fan interest to the lighter weight classes overnight. This has been a work in progress since the absorption of the WEC, and while Aldo's doing his part - kneeing Mendes' head into the fifteenth row and then running into the crowd to look for it - it would be tough to sell Hioki as a real challenger. Second, it offers the possibility of significantly increasing the profile of both underappreciated champions. It seems pretty clear after the subpar PPV buy rates of 136 and 142 (both roughly 225,000) that neither Aldo nor Edgar is a proven draw on their own, or even fighting on the same card. This leads directly into the third benefit: this fight, especially with a strong co-main, could finally catapult Aldo, Edgar, or both into real stardom with the attendant financial benefits to the UFC.
In my view, this is a win-win proposition. It gives both LW and FW a chance to sort out the chaff from the real challengers and gives the UFC another big-money fight for the summer, along with the possibility of establishing Aldo, Edgar, or both as real PPV draws. What do you all think?
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It wouuld be cool. But lightweight is so stacked that the only way this happens is if Edgar loses or Aldo discoveres water and moves up.
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- Nick Diaz
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Lightweight is definitely stacked
But I think it has a relative deficit of potential challengers at the moment, which is surprising given the situation only a few months ago. Of the top 10, Bendo’s fighting Edgar, Miller has a fight booked, Maynard is coming off a loss to Edgar, Guida’s coming off a loss, Diaz has a fight booked, and either Pettis or Lauzon (depending on who wins their fight) probably need one more win after that. Of course, there’s always Melendez, but it sounds like he’ll be in Strikeforce for a while yet.
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by Patrick Wyman on Feb 12, 2012 1:21 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
You can easily give Diaz or Miller the next shot after that win
Dunham and the winner of Lauzon/Pettis isn’t too far away afterward.
by discoandherpes on Feb 12, 2012 1:10 PM EST up reply actions
I think the free broadcasts on Fox’s various channels will have more to do with showing where the PPV buy rates are going than an occasional high profile match-up will.
A lot of new viewers might figure there’s plenty of free stuff to watch and no real reason to shell out $50 or more for basically the same types of fights.
Or, a lot of new viewers get hooked on fights in general and become part of the hardcore base.
Either way, I think 2012 will help sort out what the PPV base buy rate is. If I had to bet, I’d say the PPV rates aren’t going to grow, and any card that sells more than 500K will be the exception.
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Good points
But it’s possible that the UFC is starting to downsize their overall number of PPVs, as someone suggested recently, and the PPV headliners have been getting better. This could drive up buy rates, especially if the Fox deal begins to pay some dividends. At the same time, fewer PPVs means that the UFC needs to seriously invest in drawing interest and attention to those events, and the idea of a superfight helps them do so. Think about the kind of media attention they could drum up, even from outlets like ESPN.
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"By doubting we come to inquiry and by inquiry we perceive the truth." -- Abelard
by Patrick Wyman on Feb 12, 2012 1:34 AM EST up reply actions
Even though it’s not in my own best interest, I think UFC should consider making the entire card a PPV for the numbered UFCs. I’ve always felt that showing the prelims free online and on cable is a disincentive to buying the main card for many people. The way it stands now, you can watch six or seven fights for free and head out for the evening after getting a fight fix. And you know that the following week there will probably be more free fights on Fox/FX/whatever, so it’s not hard for a non-hardcore to just tune out.
But if you make the whole card a “buy it or miss it” – especially if you stack the undercard a little bit more than usual – you might find that more people would pay, especially since the cost per fight on the card would be less, and there’d be more fights to make up for the duds. (Of course, I have no idea how much of a cut UFC gets from ad revenue on the free part of PPV cards, or whether they’re contractually required to show the free fights as part of their deal with Fox. If that’s the case, my point here is moot.)
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I think it is part of the Fox deal for them to air preliminary fights, though I’m not sure about what kind of compensation they receive or how it’s structured. I agree though, and I think the UFC overestimates the additional PPV buys generated by the prelims, for all the reasons you mentioned.
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by Patrick Wyman on Feb 12, 2012 2:06 AM EST up reply actions
I can see this
It seems likely to me that for the casual fan who just likes to watch a fight and takes little further notice of the sport probably 90%+ of the UFC roster is basically interchangable. If someone just wants to watch a fight and the prelims are free, I’d say for a lot of people that’s all they need, especially if the PPV doesn’t have any recognisable names on it – and in today’s UFC there are very few such stars remaining.
"You know, these guys want to talk about God. 'Oh, I want to thank God. I want to thank God.' Listen, I'm a God-fearing man, go to church every Sunday and have since I was a boy. But if I ever found out that God cared one way or another about a borderline illegal fist-fight on Saturday night, I would be so greatly disappointed that it would make rethink my entire belief system." ~ Chael Sonnen.
Excellent points
Especially about interchangeability. We have a very small sample so far in terms of the Fox ratings, but it seems like people will watch free fights regardless of who’s actually fighting. The drop in PPV buys, at this point, seems like a real trend rather than a bump in the road; fights like this might help build fighters into actual PPV draws.
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by Patrick Wyman on Feb 12, 2012 3:26 PM EST up reply actions
It's interesting
Because as I understand it the UFC’s business model has been based on promoting the UFC brand rather than individual fighters. But if a large amount of fights are freely available, and if the UFC brand is promoted as a general seal of quality, then there seems less incentive to buy PPVs. Most obviously, if you get six or seven free fights (prelims), and you don’t really know too much about the fighters or have a particular affinity for any of them, is there really any incentive to pay $50 for five more fights?
It seems to me more likely that people will pay to watch fighters they like or regard as real ‘stars’ (such as GSP, Lesnar, maybe Anderson), but otherwise be happy with free content. Which seems to be suggested by the fact that name fighters like GSP and Brock continue to draw while the less star-laden PPVs seem to be declining in buys.
"You know, these guys want to talk about God. 'Oh, I want to thank God. I want to thank God.' Listen, I'm a God-fearing man, go to church every Sunday and have since I was a boy. But if I ever found out that God cared one way or another about a borderline illegal fist-fight on Saturday night, I would be so greatly disappointed that it would make rethink my entire belief system." ~ Chael Sonnen.
The UFC’s long-term strategy – promoting the brand rather than the fighters themselves – finally seems to be working against them. It minimizes their risk, but at the same time it sets a strong cap on their PPV potential.
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"By doubting we come to inquiry and by inquiry we perceive the truth." -- Abelard
by Patrick Wyman on Feb 12, 2012 4:54 PM EST up reply actions
I am totally down with this...
I hadn’t thought about it until this post, but it’s hard to argue with any of that logic. Seems like little if any risk/downside. I, for one, think that stylistic matchup would make for an entertaining fight.
"Well, I’m 22 right now, so in three years I see myself being 25." – Rampage Jackson, when he was asked where he saw himself in 3 years.
Yeah
The whole proposition stems from the idea that it could potentially be an incredible fight. I’m kinda salivating over the prospect.
Proud member of The Voices in Paul Harris' Head, BECW Season 2.
"By doubting we come to inquiry and by inquiry we perceive the truth." -- Abelard
by Patrick Wyman on Feb 12, 2012 1:36 AM EST up reply actions
I'm down for this, don't know if it will happen right now but this fight has truly potential to be awesome.
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by Sweet Scientist on Feb 12, 2012 10:00 AM EST up reply actions
I don't think Edgar loses to Henderson, but hypothetically...
If Edgar loses to Bendo, I’m not sure a fight with Aldo makes sense anymore. From Aldo’s perspective, he’s not going to move up in weight to a guy coming off a loss. His camp has said they’d only consider moving to 155 for an immediate title shot. Aldo might as well skip over Edgar and face Henderson outright since there isn’t a clear 155 challenger since Cerrone lost.
Now sure if Edgar loses he could start the whole “I am just too small for 155, I should challenge right away for the 145 title!” However, guys coming off losses do not get title shots, even if they’re dropping in weight to do it. The only one i can remember is Dan Henderson getting his fight against Silva after losing to Rampage… and that was more of a gimmick to unite the UFC and Pride titles. In this scenario I’d expect Edgar to do what Florian did, move down, pick up a gimme win, and then get a title shot.
Catchweight won’t happen. It’s either worth it for Aldo to move to 155 for a title fight, or he stays at 145. Taking a fight in between doesn’t do anything for him. Edgar it might, because he might decide to test his weight cut like Wanderlei did… but again that’d require him losing to Hendrson.
Getting bent out of shape over a fight promoter lying is like getting upset that a hooker won't kiss you. It betrays a deep lack of understanding of the nature of the profession.
There haven't been many champions who have moved a weight class
Especially one as decorated as Edgar. We have Henderson (who got an immediate title shot), Couture (who got an immediate title shot), Vitor Belfort (who hadn’t won a fight at MW in the UFC, and never defended his title) and BJ Penn (who didn’t but was coming off two straight losses, and had never defended his WW title). I’d say there’s a pretty good chance of an immediate title shot, but of course it wouldn’t be guaranteed.
I agree that 150 makes more sense for Edgar than Aldo, but I was under the impression that Aldo’s camp had been against him moving to 155 in the near future.
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"By doubting we come to inquiry and by inquiry we perceive the truth." -- Abelard
by Patrick Wyman on Feb 12, 2012 1:59 AM EST up reply actions
Edgar should probably drop down if he loses the belt
He has a very realistic chance to be a belt holder in two different classes.
by discoandherpes on Feb 12, 2012 1:13 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed
And it’s not like he’d have to get used to being the bigger fighter at featherweight, he’s still a bit undersized for 145.
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"By doubting we come to inquiry and by inquiry we perceive the truth." -- Abelard
by Patrick Wyman on Feb 12, 2012 1:26 PM EST up reply actions
I'm pretty sure he's a bit shorter than Dominick Cruz
He’ll probably be the perfect size at 145. He’ll still be quicker than a lot of guys and he could probably wrestle a bit better without such a big weight disadvantage.
by discoandherpes on Feb 12, 2012 1:43 PM EST up reply actions
He'd be a powerhouse
I should have clarified, he’d be shorter than most of the top 10, though I don’t think there’s anyone there who could really throw him around. Just looking at the top 10, he’d be a nightmare matchup for anyone not named Jose Aldo. I think he’d truck Mendes, Nunes, Poirier, Koch, Hominick, and the Zombie.
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by Patrick Wyman on Feb 12, 2012 1:59 PM EST up reply actions
It would be fairly weird
to have a reigning champion fighting off a loss, so a catchweight fight doesn’t make a ton of sense to me. So if Aldo doesn’t plan to move up, that leaves Frankie coming down, which clearly he’d be able to do if he wanted.
But unless he gets completely outclassed and dominated by Bendo — something I don’t really expect to see — I would be surprised if Frankie were eager to move down. If he were to lose a close/good fight to Bendo, he’d get the former champion bounce and probably only have to win one or two fights to be right back in the title hunt.
LW is a more established division, with more name fighters, and presumably more money fights for Frankie. Dropping down for the privilege of fighting top five P4P guy who may be more talented than every LW on earth doesn’t seem like a huge value proposition.
I’d love to see the fight of course, but it’s hard for me to see it happening.
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by Dave Strummer on Feb 13, 2012 1:40 PM EST up reply actions
It’s not a bad idea, but highly unlikely. If Edgar wins he’ll most likely stay on the shelf til a challenger is determines. There’d have to be a real push from Dana & Co to make this fight happen.
If he loses, there’s really no reason for Aldo to challenge him. It takes Aldo out of his FW comfort zone without the incentive of a second title.
I just don’t see this one happening.
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Let me put it this way
If Edgar loses to Henderson (call it 60/40 that Edgar wins), it’ll almost certainly be because Bendo muscles him around with takedowns and work against the cage, like a more violent version of what Maynard did to him. At that point, given the fact that Dana has previously said that he thinks Edgar is more suited for 145, don’t you think it’s a strong possibility that Edgar would move down? Then Aldo wouldn’t have to give up his title or move in weight at all.
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"By doubting we come to inquiry and by inquiry we perceive the truth." -- Abelard
by Patrick Wyman on Feb 12, 2012 3:07 AM EST up reply actions
Edgar has had incredible success at 155, so I can't say it's guaranteed that he moves down
Even if he does, tho, he’s not getting an immediate title shot coming off a loss, even a title loss. He’ll get the Florian treatment where he gets an introductory fight and then a shot.
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There's precedent
For accomplished champions moving a weight class to get an immediate title shot, even with a loss. It’s a very small sample, but the only former champion who didn’t get an immediate title shot when he moved down was BJ, and he was coming off two straight losses.
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by Patrick Wyman on Feb 12, 2012 3:26 AM EST up reply actions
Who has gotten an immediate shot with a division change?
Pat Barry made a wrestle - some schmuk in texas
I don't know more about MMA than you, I just act like it at HeadKickLegend
Follow me on Twitter @chris81203
Couture when he challenged Tim Sylvia and Henderson unifying the Pride title with Anderson after the Rampage loss. There’s also Vitor, who hadn’t won a fight at middleweight in the UFC before fighting Anderson.
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by Patrick Wyman on Feb 12, 2012 3:46 AM EST up reply actions
Also it wasn’t an immediate shot but Pulver moved down to featherweight after back to back losses – got one win and was given a title shot against Faber.
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by some schmuck in texas on Feb 12, 2012 9:00 AM EST up reply actions
elite lightweight guys meeting cage
= so much win every time
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by Sweet Scientist on Feb 12, 2012 10:11 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah
I have a hard time seeing how this wouldn’t be a fun fight.
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"By doubting we come to inquiry and by inquiry we perceive the truth." -- Abelard
by Patrick Wyman on Feb 12, 2012 12:57 PM EST up reply actions
this is a win for everyone EXCEPT
Edgar. What incentive does he have to make a catchweight fight with someone that won’t draw him many more eyes. At this point, he should be trying to grow the Frankie Edgar brand. I understand it would be an exciting fight, but not too many people outside of hardcores and/or Brazilians know much about Aldo. Plus, what if Edgar loses to him. Awesome for Aldo but where does that leave Edgar? A champion people don’t care about, takes a fight at a lighter weight and loses to another guy people don’t care about. So now, he (outside opinion) lost to a nobody and no longer even has a belt to “validate” him. Doesn’t make sense for Frankie
by OneFitchTwoFitchRedFitchBlueFitch on Feb 12, 2012 11:14 AM EST reply actions
recd for this
kneeing Mendes’ head into the fifteenth row and then running into the crowd to look for it
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by gspmademegay on Feb 12, 2012 11:36 AM EST reply actions 3 recs
Same
Great turn of phrase my friend!
I thought Lay N Pray was a stupid insult until I watched Tyron Woodley fight.
Am I the only one who thinks Edgar would win if they fought at 145?
Fuck you, double fingers
- Nick Diaz
Clothes make the man. Naked people have little or no influence on society
- Mark Twain
Off the top of my head
I’d have Aldo as a slight favorite. The matchup would come down to Frankie’s movement vs. Aldo’s speed: could Aldo use his low kicks to redirect Frankie’s movement, cut off his angles, and then land the big punches and knees? For Frankie, I think he’d need to mix in takedowns with his striking, even if he didn’t want to play on the ground. It’s an intriguing match for sure.
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"By doubting we come to inquiry and by inquiry we perceive the truth." -- Abelard
by Patrick Wyman on Feb 12, 2012 1:44 PM EST up reply actions
If Edgar could defend against the leg kicks
I think he could probably win a decision. Edgar throws guys off balance with his attack. He throws good low kicks, has fast hands, and can surprise someone with a takedown.
by discoandherpes on Feb 12, 2012 1:45 PM EST up reply actions
I'd give Edgar an edge
He might be able to surprise a few people on the feet and land some offense, and I have no doubt he’d be able to get Aldo down. This is the same Frankie Edgar that took down BJ and Gray. I’m not so sure he’d be able to keep Aldo down for very long, but the threat of the takedown alone would slow Aldo’s standup attack, methinks.
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by Benjamin Cole on Feb 12, 2012 9:01 PM EST up reply actions
I’m perfectly fine with Aldo staying at 145 forever – he’s incredibly young and the division will coalesce. But yeah, I’d watch this fight.
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by Derek Suboticki on Feb 12, 2012 4:16 PM EST reply actions
As am I
But his youth could work against him as far as staying at 145 is concerned. The cut seems to be getting harder and harder for him, which is to be expected as he gets older and puts on more muscle.
Proud member of The Voices in Paul Harris' Head, BECW Season 2.
"By doubting we come to inquiry and by inquiry we perceive the truth." -- Abelard
by Patrick Wyman on Feb 12, 2012 4:36 PM EST up reply actions
I seem to remember hearing
That he changed his diet and/or his workout regime ahead of the Mendes fight to gain speed (which he didn’t need against Florian) and make the cut easier. I know Cruz puts on more/less muscle depending on who he’s fighting so isn’t there a chance that the already strong Aldo would sacrifice a bit of strength to stay at 145?
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by wonderfulspam on Feb 12, 2012 6:04 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah that's true
His cut for the Hominick fight is the one that really seemed to be tough, on the one hand because he was sick and on the other because he’d been doing a lot of weight training while recovering from the injury that forced him out of the Grispi fight.
I think it’s plausible for fighters to manipulate their body composition to a small extent depending on who exactly they’re fighting, but overall they’ll continue to put on muscle as they age. If you’re following a proper nutritional program and training hard, regardless of whether you’re specifically trying to put on weight, you’ll add muscle over time: the best example off the top of my head is Anderson. That effect can be minimized, but Aldo’s just starting to enter his physical prime and is already about as big as he can be and still fight at 145, so his margin for error is much smaller.
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"By doubting we come to inquiry and by inquiry we perceive the truth." -- Abelard
by Patrick Wyman on Feb 12, 2012 6:21 PM EST up reply actions
I would love this to happen but only if the fighter that moves weight class is doing it permanently. And if they are coming off a loss I wouldn’t like them to get an immediate shot
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by Our Bovine Public on Feb 13, 2012 8:05 AM EST reply actions
I would love to see Aldo vs. Edgar at a 5- round, 150 lb catchweight
I think it’s obvious that Aldo’s best weight is ’45, and as long as Edgar is running the show at lightweight, I see no reason for him to drop down.
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violates the first law of superfights
1. there’s no heat for the matchup, as neither fighter is a huge star and there is no obvious rivalry or compelling stylistic challenge presented by their facing each other
by Trust Doesn't Rust on Feb 14, 2012 6:09 AM EST reply actions
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