UFC 156: Rashad Evans opens as favorite over Antonio Rogerio Nogueira

Paul Abell-US PRESSWIRE

This shouldn't come as much of a surprise to anyone, but former UFC light heavyweight champion Rashad Evans has opened as a large favorite over Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. Only two books are offering lines on their February UFC 156 bout so far, but they're exactly the same and I figure that other sites will soon follow suit. Here's what the line looks like (via BestFightOdds):

BestFightOdds.com

Evans (17-2-1) hasn't competed since he lost a unanimous decision to former training partner Jon Jones at UFC 145 back in April. He had flirted with a drop to middleweight and a possible confrontation with Anderson Silva, but will stick around at 205 for now. Nogueira (20-5) has been out even longer than Evans, and didn't take a fight in 2012 at all. His last bout was a TKO win over Tito Ortiz at UFC 140 that broke a two-fight losing streak.

I wouldn't normally be comfortable betting on such a big favorite in Evans, but I think that there's value in him all the way up to -450 or so. Barring an injury or something, I don't really see many ways he could potentially lose the bout.

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