FanPost

MMA Betting Diary

Over the past 6 months I've made my first ventures into betting on my favorite sport. I made the decision to place my first bet in the days leading up to UFC 145. Being completely unfamiliar with the ins and outs of MMA betting I reached out to people I trusted like former Bloody Elbow writer Leland Roling and the self-proclaimed "GamblingFury". On the advice of Fury, I parlayed heavy favorites Rory MacDonald and Jon Jones to win their fights. The bet panned out and I've been hooked ever since.

Since the UFC event in April, I've managed to triple my initial investment. By no means have I been right with every bet, but I rely on my MMA knowledge to guide me through my investments. For example, going into UFC 147 I expected UFC veteran Patrick Cote to beat the overhyped and flashy Cung Le. As it turned out, Le was more than capable of dealing with the limited striking of Cote's heavy hands. My prediction was wrong, but the reasoning behind my bet was solid. Cote has an incredible chin and powerful strikes, it was completely reasonable to think he'd land on Le who'd been recently TKO'd by Wanderlei Silva.

On the other hand, my suspicions proved correct when Mauricio Rua faced Brandon Vera at UFC On Fox 4. The bout was such an incredible mismatch that there was no value in betting either fighter straight. However, the skill disparity led to a great line on how long it'd take Rua to finish the match. As soon as live betting opened, I bet heavily on the bout going over 3.5 rounds. Sure enough, Rua finished late in the 4th to grant me a big payday.

Now, the point of my last example isn't to brag by any means. It's to illustrate that if you're going to bet you need to look at multiple viewpoints. Online betting is almost never about who wins or loses. It's about getting the best value out of an outcome. Look for situations where the odds don't accurately reflect the most likely outcome.

I would like to make this an ongoing feature. Let me know what you'd like to hear about my betting considerations.

\The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.

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