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A look at the betting lines for the UFC 153 card in Brazil this weekend, and some suggestions on solid picks.
The betting lines are out for UFC 153, and it still makes me laugh that I had to type -1250 next to Anderson Silva's name. Clearly I won't be betting on that (or on Stephan Bonnar), but there are a few plays worth making on the card if you're into that sort of thing. Four of the main card fights are lopsided and none of the underdogs look particularly good, but the two close fights merit a small bet.
The Erick Silva vs. Jon Fitch fight is very tough to call, but I think this is Fitch's type of fight and I'm leaning towards him at +110. Demian Maia vs. Rick Story is similar to me - I think Maia's the more talented fighter, but Story's grinding and submission defense will get him by the BJJ ace. I like him at +125.
The best plays of the event are, as usual, on the undercard. Gleison Tibau at -160 looks very good to me. Massaranduba is a huge '55er like Tibau is (he competed on TUF Brazil at 185), but he's going to have a hard time dealing with Tibau's wrestling and experience. I also like Luiz Cane at -140. It's always iffy to bet on a guy dropping from LHW to MW, but Cane has always had trouble with great strikers and Camozzi is not that guy. As for underdogs, Renee Forte might be worth a look at +185 as well.
.75 unit on Fitch at +110
.5 unit on Story at +125
1 unit on Tibau at -160
1 unit on Cane at -140
Last week at UFC on FX 5: 2-2, +.88 unit
Total (3 events): 7-4, +3.66 units
Lines via bookmaker.eu
October 13th, live on PPV from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Main Card (PPV)
Anderson Silva (32-4) -1250 vs. Stephan Bonnar (14-7) +750
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (33-7-1, 1 NC) -300 vs. Dave Herman (21-4) +240
Glover Teixeira (18-2) -260 vs. Fabio Maldonado (18-5) +290
Jon Fitch (23-4-1, 1 NC) +110 vs. Erick Silva (14-2, 1 NC) -140
Demian Maia (16-4) -155 vs. Rick Story (14-5) +125
Phil Davis (9-1, 1 NC) -400 vs. Wagner Prado (8-0, 1 NC) +300
Preliminary Card (FX)
Rony "Jason" Mariano (11-3) -275 vs. Sam Sicilia (11-0) +205
Diego Brandao (14-8) -170 vs. Joey Gambino (9-1) +140
Gleison Tibau (25-8) -160 vs. Francisco Drinaldo (11-1) +130
Sergio Moraes (6-2) -245 vs. Renee Forte (7-1) +185
Preliminary Card (Facebook)