UFC 153: Silva vs. Bonnar betting lines

Mark Kolbe - Getty Images

A look at the betting lines for the UFC 153 card in Brazil this weekend, and some suggestions on solid picks.

The betting lines are out for UFC 153, and it still makes me laugh that I had to type -1250 next to Anderson Silva's name. Clearly I won't be betting on that (or on Stephan Bonnar), but there are a few plays worth making on the card if you're into that sort of thing. Four of the main card fights are lopsided and none of the underdogs look particularly good, but the two close fights merit a small bet.

The Erick Silva vs. Jon Fitch fight is very tough to call, but I think this is Fitch's type of fight and I'm leaning towards him at +110. Demian Maia vs. Rick Story is similar to me - I think Maia's the more talented fighter, but Story's grinding and submission defense will get him by the BJJ ace. I like him at +125.

The best plays of the event are, as usual, on the undercard. Gleison Tibau at -160 looks very good to me. Massaranduba is a huge '55er like Tibau is (he competed on TUF Brazil at 185), but he's going to have a hard time dealing with Tibau's wrestling and experience. I also like Luiz Cane at -140. It's always iffy to bet on a guy dropping from LHW to MW, but Cane has always had trouble with great strikers and Camozzi is not that guy. As for underdogs, Renee Forte might be worth a look at +185 as well.

Recommended plays:
.75 unit on Fitch at +110
.5 unit on Story at +125
1 unit on Tibau at -160
1 unit on Cane at -140

Last week at UFC on FX 5: 2-2, +.88 unit
Total (3 events): 7-4, +3.66 units

Lines via bookmaker.eu

October 13th, live on PPV from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Main Card (PPV)

Anderson Silva (32-4) -1250 vs. Stephan Bonnar (14-7) +750
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (33-7-1, 1 NC) -300 vs. Dave Herman (21-4) +240
Glover Teixeira (18-2) -260 vs. Fabio Maldonado (18-5) +290
Jon Fitch (23-4-1, 1 NC) +110 vs. Erick Silva (14-2, 1 NC) -140
Demian Maia (16-4) -155 vs. Rick Story (14-5) +125
Phil Davis (9-1, 1 NC) -400 vs. Wagner Prado (8-0, 1 NC) +300

Preliminary Card (FX)

Rony "Jason" Mariano (11-3) -275 vs. Sam Sicilia (11-0) +205
Diego Brandao (14-8) -170 vs. Joey Gambino (9-1) +140
Gleison Tibau (25-8) -160 vs. Francisco Drinaldo (11-1) +130
Sergio Moraes (6-2) -245 vs. Renee Forte (7-1) +185

Preliminary Card (Facebook)

Luiz Cane (13-4, 1 NC) -140 vs. Chris Camozzi (17-5) +110
Cristiano Marcello (12-4) +165 vs. Reza Madadi (12-2) -205

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Bloody Elbow

You must be a member of Bloody Elbow to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Bloody Elbow. You should read them.

Join Bloody Elbow

You must be a member of Bloody Elbow to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Bloody Elbow. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_5349_tracker