Random thoughts: Jones' striking (GIF party!)

I’m not a big fan of Jones’ striking in general

I've seen this sentiment a lot, but it's hard to reconcile that with the fact that he's completely dominated the striking against Shogun/Rampage, and while he "struggled" in the 1st round, he then proceeded to knock down Machida. That's probably #'s 1, 2, and 3 on top of the "LHW strikers" list. I'm no striking expert, but I think it's safe to say it must be pretty hard to deal with Jones on the feet.

I know I've firmly attached myself to his nuts around here, but Jones' MMA striking game is straight dominant. I see why people don't seem to be impressed with his striking since he doesn't set anything up very well or really even string together combos. He probably would get waxed in a straight kickboxing match, but this ain't kickboxing, and his wrestling/reach/creativity combo make range such a difficult problem. #1 his insanely good clinch game makes it impossible for anyone to really stay in a comfortable offensive position #2 he's a deadly accurate puncher #3 he's going to have the reach advantage on everyone from the outside.

Everyone is so terrified of clinching with Jones that it basically means that no one is willing to engage offense at close range. Jones can throw from distance, close in and have virtually no fear of getting hit because if he gets inside, everyone is just trying to play pure clinch defense. Perfect example:

via i43.tinypic.com

Jones telegraphs by jumping in, doesn't really create an angle (if anything Machida is set up well here orthodox), and the exaggerated head movement---while making the first punch miss---leaves himself wide open for an uppercut or MT knee. Even still, his exceptional accuracy lets him connect on the blind punch, and he doesn't have to fear the counter because Machida is playing clinch defense, reaching for an underhook(?) instead of firing a 2nd shot. Jones can push away back out of range and win the exchange. Also worth mentioning is that Machida is demonstrating the dangers of going for the hand trap here.

It's easy to say Machida should be throwing a followup, but here's what happens when he lets Jones get an underhook clinch. Machida has an underhook and it doesn't do him any good. Similarly, everyone noted how Rampage managed to stay off his back for the first 2.5 rounds, but that came at the expense of completely abandoning any offense in close. This of course is a better idea than Shogun/Bader/Everyone letting themselves get thrown through the mat and hellbowed.

But even when he got hit by Machida, he can back up/circle and just the threat of the clinch got Machida to hold off for the extra second he needed to get back to safety.

via i42.tinypic.com

This one illustrates everything that makes it hard to strike with Jones. Machida actually lands, but Jones threatens a clinch---Machida defends but that buys Jones the opportunity to get out of range---Machida comes up short. Machida tries to kick---Jones halfway threatens a TD making Machida back up, Jones hits the knee while backing out of range---Machida comes up short. Machida simply can't stay close enough AND out of Jones' clinch and this is probably the best range management fighter at LHW. It's really hard to string together enough punches to really hurt Jones, and this is the last offense Machida is able to attempt.

And if you just let Jones play a distance game:

via 3.bp.blogspot.com

Not that those are damaging or great strikes by any means, but it just illustrates that he can throw literally whatever he wants with zero risk at that range. Same thing in the Shogun fight, same thing in every fight.

So let's recap: you can't let Jones play at his range and you really can't let Jones clinch. You basically have to hit Jones as he throws---which is what Machida awesomely did in the 1st round. But what happened after the first punch?

via 2.bp.blogspot.com

Jones threatens a clinch, and Machida is forced to stop his flurry. You've gotta hit that sweet spot AND have the power to really knock Jones down on the first try since it's just so hard to maintain the aggressiveness. That sequence right there is about the best you're going to get if you can't knock him down on the 1st shot. Jones' defense here when backing up is also vastly better compared to what it was when he was running away against Rampage just a couple months prior.

And even then if you're good enough for all that:

via i43.tinypic.com

New recap: #1 have elite wrestling to stay off your back without having to sell offense down the river, #2 time Jones' strikes almost perfectly and #3 be in the right range. Got all that? Well, you also have to hope he hasn't adjusted to land a half-superman left hook from southpaw that he adjusts mid-punch to hit a moving target. Lost in all the goofy choke-drop hullabaloo: that's an unbelievable mid-fight adjustment and just a crazy punch.

Everyone has their puncher's chance (especially Henderson), but I really struggle to see anyone who can legit outstrike Jones in an MMA fight for >3/5 rounds if Shogun, Rampage, and Machida can't. The margin for error is just so small. Machida threaded the needle for a couple of significant punches, but Jones adjusted and worked him in the 2nd.

If you're going beat him standing, I think you're going to have to turn the tables by making Jones fear a TD. Aside from the fact that who knows how good his game is off his back, offensively neutralizing/winning the TD/clinch game is the real key. It'd open up the mid-range, which is the only place you can hit him---otherwise you're stuck in the same place everyone else. Maybe Rashad/Davis could do that, but there's a reason everyone is going to be a +400 or worse underdog.

And even that's ignoring that Jones is improving his striking everything at an alarming rate.