UFC on Fox 2 Betting

Before I get on with the tips for this weekends fight card, let's have a recap of how my betting went for UFC 142.

Rousimar Palhares vs. Mike Massenzio total rounds less than 2.5 - £10 Won

Treble of erick Silva, Antonio Carvalho, Palhares - £5 Lost

Palhares to win in Round 1 - £10 Won

Michihiro Omigawa to win - £10 free bet Lost

Total Return - £53.65 Profit - £28.65

Not too bad, but obviously hoping for better this time.

Once again I'll be using paddypower.com for my bets. You may be able to find marginally better odds at other sites, but Paddy Power offers by far the most comprehensive selection of markets for MMA betting.

Underdog Picks

Damien Maia is 5/4 underdog against undefeated prospect Chris Weidman. though I would give Weidman a slight edge, it is worth noting that Maia has only previously lost to Anderson Silva Nate Marquardt, and Mark Munoz, the currently ranked no.1, no.4 and no.5 in the middleweight division.

George Roop is an 11/10 underdog against Cub Swanson, despite being only narrowly beaten by no. 2 ranked Hatsu Hioki in his last fight. Roop has looked an improved fighter since his move to featherweight and could give Swanson some problems due to his range. It is also always worth considering that Cub Swanson's hands appear to be made of glass, and another broken hand could severely hinder his chances here.

Other than that, this is a fight card where the odds are generally spot on and there is not too much underdog value.

Outcome betting

I can see a few opportunities for the Bisping vs Sonnen match match. Bisping is a live dog but I do expect Sonnen to win, though at 1/5 is not worth throwing money at unless he's in an accumulator, so we really have to look at other markets beside match betting. I think the most likely outcome for this fight is a decision, and with odds of 10/11 for Sonnen to win by decision, I think there is a good chance to nearly double your money. Even if you fancy Bisping to get the nod, the fight is still 4/9 to ggo the distance. seeing as this is only a three round fight, this is a good choice for an accumulator, or a straight bet.

Evans vs. Davis is 11/10 to go the distance, and 5/6 to go over 2.5 rounds. The latter at least has a great chance in my opinion.

Similarly, the Evan Dunham vs. Nick Lentz is 4/7 and 1/2 in the same markets, with Dunham 5/4 to win on points. I expect Lentz's luck to finally run out and lose this fight, but he is as tough as they come could well force a decision. Once again, putting these bets in as part of a double or accumulator could net some profit. On the other hand Lentz has a history of winning controversial decisions so caution is advised when betting against him, despite my assertions of Dunham's strong chances.

Joey Beltran is 6/4 to beat Lavar Johnson. 'Big' Johnson (ha ha) lost his last two fights in Strikeforce and is not a great heavyweight. Beltran is tough, hits hard, and can mount a sustained assault into the third round and should cause a myriad of problems for his opponent.

Avoid

Straight match betting. There are no favourites on this card with good enough odds to really recommend throwing down money on. To gain any decent returns you will have to throw down some serious money, and it is not worth the risk in all honesty.

I would also usually advise more bets on KO outcomes for heavyweight bouts based on the power these goliaths possess. However, when heavyweight bouts are removed from the top 10 of the division, they tend to become sloppy gas-fests with each fighter panting and struggling to make the final bell. For this reason I would avoid the Mike Russow vs. Jon Olav Einemo fight.

Bets

Given the lack of value on match bets, I'm going to throw money down on multiple quad bets featuring Evans, Sonnen, Weidman, Dunham, Russow, and Beltran, as well as Charles Oliveira and Shane Roller.

I'll also put a treble on Sonnen by decision, Beltran by KO, and Evans vs. Davis to last more than 2.5 rounds.