Finishing Rates - UFC 1 thru UFC FX 1 - (Stat Geeks)
by skeebop on Jan 25, 2012 11:42 AM EST
Email
Print
Before I get started, a quick shout-out to theslynx and his two fanposts that got me interested in this.
Fightmetrix: Please don't sue me. This is your data, and I love you for that. Share the love.
I'll save any real analysis for later, but wanted to get the raw numbers out here so that you folks could see them.
One thing that did jump out at me while working with this data was just how much the UFC grew after 2004 (and TUF season 1). Total fights doubled in 2005, then doubled again in 2006, and have been climbing ever since. The last 30% of the UFC's lifespan (beginning in 2006) has accounted for 75% of its fights.
Anyway, on to the results by weight class.
First, here's the consolidated data for every weight class (including open weight and catch weight):
| Year | FIGHTS | SUB | Sub % | KO/TKO | KO/TKO % | FINISH % |
| 1994 | 32 | 24 | 75% | 8 | 25% | 100% |
| 1995 | 36 | 26 | 72% | 7 | 19% | 92% |
| 1996 | 39 | 19 | 49% | 15 | 38% | 87% |
| 1997 | 40 | 21 | 53% | 11 | 28% | 80% |
| 1998 | 25 | 8 | 32% | 9 | 36% | 68% |
| 1999 | 39 | 10 | 26% | 18 | 46% | 72% |
| 2000 | 39 | 13 | 33% | 10 | 26% | 59% |
| 2001 | 38 | 10 | 26% | 16 | 42% | 68% |
| 2002 | 49 | 10 | 20% | 24 | 49% | 69% |
| 2003 | 38 | 8 | 21% | 16 | 42% | 63% |
| 2004 | 37 | 12 | 32% | 15 | 41% | 73% |
| 2005 | 72 | 22 | 31% | 31 | 43% | 74% |
| 2006 | 139 | 44 | 32% | 45 | 32% | 64% |
| 2007 | 167 | 55 | 33% | 50 | 30% | 63% |
| 2008 | 201 | 54 | 27% | 83 | 41% | 68% |
| 2009 | 209 | 50 | 24% | 67 | 32% | 56% |
| 2010 | 248 | 61 | 25% | 63 | 25% | 50% |
| 2011 | 294 | 57 | 19% | 90 | 31% | 50% |
| 2012 | 19 | 8 | 42% | 6 | 32% | 74% |
A few unsurprising trends, including a gradual reduction in finishing rates and corresponding increase in decisions, but...
What I find most interesting here is that, after a couple big dips in the first 4 years, submission finishing rates have more or less leveled off in the 25-33% range. While there are certainly many other plausible explanations, what this says to me is that submission grappling training suffers from significant diminishing marginal returns (at least as pertains to MMA submission defense). It is logical to assume that, after the first two BJJ-dominated years of the UFC, fighters quickly wised-up and began devoting more training to submission grappling. Within two years, submission rates had fallen to a level they more or less remain at today. For me, this implies that the difference between 0 years and 1 or 2 years of dedicated submission grappling training, is significantly greater than the difference between 2 years of and 5 (or 10, or 20).
Before I get carried away chasing that thread, let's move on to the numbers by weight class, starting with Lightweight:
| YEAR | FIGHTS | SUB | Sub % | KO/TKO | KO/TKO % | FINISH % |
| 1997 | 14 | 8 | 57% | 3 | 21% | 79% |
| 1998 | 5 | 2 | 40% | 3 | 60% | 100% |
| 1999 | 5 | 1 | 20% | 1 | 20% | 40% |
| 2000 | 7 | 2 | 29% | 2 | 29% | 57% |
| 2001 | 8 | 1 | 13% | 4 | 50% | 63% |
| 2002 | 7 | 2 | 29% | 2 | 29% | 57% |
| 2003 | 7 | 1 | 14% | 3 | 43% | 57% |
| 2004 | 4 | 1 | 25% | 1 | 25% | 50% |
| 2005 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2006 | 16 | 8 | 50% | 5 | 31% | 81% |
| 2007 | 50 | 20 | 40% | 10 | 20% | 60% |
| 2008 | 52 | 18 | 35% | 12 | 23% | 58% |
| 2009 | 45 | 19 | 42% | 10 | 22% | 64% |
| 2010 | 53 | 19 | 36% | 7 | 13% | 49% |
| 2011 | 53 | 15 | 28% | 15 | 28% | 57% |
| 2012 | 5 | 3 | 60% | 1 | 20% | 80% |
At lightweight we find a notably lower KO/TKO finishing rate, but a generally higher submission finishing rate, and, other, than a blip in 2006, roughly equivalent overall finishing rates beginning in 2007. I find this interesting, as it implies that LWs attempt to make up for their relative lack of KO power by working more for submission finishes.
I'm off to lunch now. Rest of the numbers are below, I'll update with analysis if I have time later.
| YEAR | FIGHTS | SUB | Sub % | KO/TKO | KO/TKO % | FINISH % |
| 2000 | 7 | 3 | 43% | 1 | 14% | 57% |
| 2001 | 9 | 3 | 33% | 4 | 44% | 78% |
| 2002 | 10 | 2 | 20% | 4 | 40% | 60% |
| 2003 | 7 | 4 | 57% | 0 | 0% | 57% |
| 2004 | 11 | 4 | 36% | 4 | 36% | 73% |
| 2005 | 20 | 8 | 40% | 6 | 30% | 70% |
| 2006 | 40 | 14 | 35% | 8 | 20% | 55% |
| 2007 | 42 | 17 | 40% | 12 | 29% | 69% |
| 2008 | 44 | 9 | 20% | 18 | 41% | 61% |
| 2009 | 53 | 11 | 21% | 16 | 30% | 51% |
| 2010 | 60 | 15 | 25% | 13 | 22% | 47% |
| 2011 | 52 | 8 | 15% | 15 | 29% | 44% |
| 2012 | 3 | 1 | 33% | 1 | 33% | 67% |
| YEAR | FIGHTS | SUB | Sub % | KO/TKO | KO/TKO % | FINISH % |
| 1998 | 11 | 5 | 45% | 3 | 27% | 73% |
| 1999 | 12 | 4 | 33% | 8 | 67% | 100% |
| 2000 | 7 | 3 | 43% | 2 | 29% | 71% |
| 2001 | 4 | 1 | 25% | 0 | 0% | 25% |
| 2002 | 12 | 3 | 25% | 8 | 67% | 92% |
| 2003 | 7 | 1 | 14% | 4 | 57% | 71% |
| 2004 | 8 | 6 | 75% | 1 | 13% | 88% |
| 2005 | 23 | 5 | 22% | 11 | 48% | 70% |
| 2006 | 34 | 13 | 38% | 10 | 29% | 68% |
| 2007 | 28 | 9 | 32% | 11 | 39% | 71% |
| 2008 | 46 | 19 | 41% | 16 | 35% | 76% |
| 2009 | 37 | 12 | 32% | 10 | 27% | 59% |
| 2010 | 51 | 12 | 24% | 12 | 24% | 47% |
| 2011 | 43 | 9 | 21% | 16 | 37% | 58% |
| 2012 | 2 | 1 | 50% | 1 | 50% | 100% |
| YEAR | FIGHTS | SUB | Sub % | KO/TKO | KO/TKO % | FINISH % |
| 2000 | 4 | 1 | 25% | 2 | 50% | 75% |
| 2001 | 8 | 2 | 25% | 3 | 38% | 63% |
| 2002 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 2 | 25% | 25% |
| 2003 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 4 | 80% | 80% |
| 2004 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 3 | 75% | 75% |
| 2005 | 14 | 5 | 36% | 5 | 36% | 71% |
| 2006 | 30 | 9 | 30% | 11 | 37% | 67% |
| 2007 | 33 | 7 | 21% | 16 | 48% | 70% |
| 2008 | 30 | 5 | 17% | 19 | 63% | 80% |
| 2009 | 34 | 2 | 6% | 13 | 38% | 44% |
| 2010 | 34 | 7 | 21% | 11 | 32% | 53% |
| 2011 | 33 | 7 | 21% | 15 | 45% | 67% |
| YEAR | FIGHTS | SUB | Sub % | KO/TKO | KO/TKO % | FINISH % |
| 1997 | 26 | 13 | 50% | 8 | 31% | 81% |
| 1998 | 7 | 1 | 14% | 3 | 43% | 57% |
| 1999 | 18 | 4 | 22% | 8 | 44% | 67% |
| 2000 | 12 | 4 | 33% | 2 | 17% | 50% |
| 2001 | 9 | 3 | 33% | 5 | 56% | 89% |
| 2002 | 11 | 3 | 27% | 8 | 73% | 100% |
| 2003 | 10 | 2 | 20% | 5 | 50% | 70% |
| 2004 | 7 | 1 | 14% | 6 | 86% | 100% |
| 2005 | 14 | 3 | 21% | 9 | 64% | 86% |
| 2006 | 22 | 3 | 14% | 12 | 55% | 68% |
| 2007 | 19 | 3 | 16% | 6 | 32% | 47% |
| 2008 | 23 | 3 | 13% | 17 | 74% | 87% |
| 2009 | 24 | 6 | 25% | 13 | 54% | 79% |
| 2010 | 31 | 6 | 19% | 16 | 52% | 71% |
| 2011 | 23 | 3 | 13% | 12 | 52% | 65% |
| 2012 | 2 | 1 | 50% | 1 | 50% | 100% |
If Interested, you can grab my spreadsheet from here: https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B5vOqfH1nzfXMTUwNzQxY2QtNjA4Mi00YTBiLWI0Y2MtNzk4YjM0NWJhZmIy
The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.
39 comments
|
20 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
And I've got me some srs grammar failz in thur, to
Reppin' the 202 for The Voice's in Paul Harris' Head. BECW Season 12.
This is so many kinds of awesome
I wish I could rec it a hundred times. Thanks a lot for sharing the spreadsheet as well, looks like I need to learn how to use pivot tables.
BECW Season 2 Captain of the Intellegent Northern English Picking Team - 80% more INEPT than all of you, 8 times out of 12
Please visit the Daniel James Miller Foundation and donate.
Thanks!
It’s funny, actually, I’m a pretty advanced Excel user, but this is actually the first time I’ve bothered with pivot tables for anything. Just one of those things I never got around to. They are, however, great.
Reppin' the 202 for The Voice's in Paul Harris' Head. BECW Season 12.
What I find most interesting
Is that since 2001 (the introduction of weight classes), the total finishing rates have remained around 68% +/- 5% … at least until 2008. 2009-2011 have seen significantly lower finishing rates to the point where judges decide the winners in half of the fights as opposed to a third.
BECW Season 2 Captain of the Intellegent Northern English Picking Team - 80% more INEPT than all of you, 8 times out of 12
Please visit the Daniel James Miller Foundation and donate.
Awesome work
Proud member of The Voices in Paul Harris' Head, BECW Season 2.
"By doubting we come to inquiry and by inquiry we perceive the truth." -- Abelard
Great post!
I love this kind of stuff.
On the notion that there are diminishing returns with sub grappling defense, I agree completely.
Another thing to consider is the lack of rounds in the early days. I might have separated the data out into two distinct sets, one before the unified rules were instituted and one after.
It seems to me the longer you fight without a break and the more fatigue sets in, the higher the chance the fight ends by submission than by KO/TKO.
I did a couple of articles on submission rates and type of submissions used between 2006-2011 over at Head Kick Legend if anyone missed those and is interested in looking at some more historical data on finishing rates.
New author at Head Kick Legend
Reach me here: LukeNelsonMMA@gmail.com
One thing I never got around to mentioning
When I read your series of excellent submission breakdowns:
You show how submission are more likely to occur in the first round compared to the later rounds, but if one wants to answer the question “is it easier to sub someone in the first round?”, wouldn’t you have to re-do the stats for every round?
Say you have 200 fights. You find out 28 of them end in first round subs while 36 are first round (T)KOs. When you get to the second round, only (200 – 28 – 36) 136 fights are left, hence the number of second round submissions should be compared to 136 total fights, not 200.
BECW Season 2 Captain of the Intellegent Northern English Picking Team - 80% more INEPT than all of you, 8 times out of 12
Please visit the Daniel James Miller Foundation and donate.
by wonderfulspam on Jan 25, 2012 1:39 PM EST up reply actions
Not sure I follow....
Let’s say in your example there were 17 submissions and 19 (T)KOs in the second round.
In the third round there are 10 submissions and 5 (T)KOs.
So which round is it easiest to submit your opponent in? What are the percentages of submission finishes per round?
I don’t understand why you wouldn’t include the fights that ended in the first round in your calculations for the other rounds, if you were trying to determine in which round a fighter had the highest chance of landing a submission. I think using your method expresses how likely you are to land a submission at the start of that particular round but not over the entirety of the fight, doesn’t it? As in, there were 17 second round submissions out of the 136 fights that went to the second round. That means in fights that went to the second round there was a 12.5% chance a successful sub happened, in that round.
In terms of expressing it as an overall, I see it as (17/200) 8.5 precent of fights end in second round submission.
Unless I’m just not understanding how this works?
New author at Head Kick Legend
Reach me here: LukeNelsonMMA@gmail.com
It's the difference
Between “in which round is a submission more likely to occur?” and “in which round is it easier to submit an opponent?”.
In answering the second question, we can state that if a fight goes beyond the first round, it’s easier/harder to submit your opponent. Simply breaking down the submissions by round doesn’t help us do that.
An example:
200 fights
Subs by round (1, 2 and 3): 28, 20 and 10
TKOs by round: 36, 30 and 15
Simply breaking down the numbers by round would tell us that 14% of these 200 fights ended by sub in the first round and only 10% and 5% ended by second and third round sub respectively. Let’s imagine that all 200 fights were fought by guys with the exact same skills. This would mean that either guy had a 7% chance of landing a sub in the first round. In one particular fight, neither guy managed to get a finish in the first round. Moving into the second round, can we now say that the submission window has if not closed then, I dunno, shrunk? Simply saying that 10% of the fights ended in second round sub doesn’t answer that question; we would have to eliminate the fights that already ended. In this case, the result would be that 20 of the 136 remaining fights ended in a submission in the second round, or around 15% – ie. it does not get harder to latch on to a sub as the fight goes on.
Another way to look at: imagine you’re playing a D&D style MMA game (Dungeons & D’arces?!). In every round of a fight, you roll a 20-sided die to determine whether you get a finish. Your characters stats mean that rolling 1-5 results in a sub, rolling 6-10 results in a TKO and rolling 11-20 means you don’t get a finish. If we assume the likelihood of getting a sub is the same every round, you would still get less second and third round subs because you may have already rolled the number you need.
I hope this makes some sort of sense. I’m not a statistician so I can’t be positively sure I’m not talking out of my ass.
BECW Season 2 Captain of the Intellegent Northern English Picking Team - 80% more INEPT than all of you, 8 times out of 12
Please visit the Daniel James Miller Foundation and donate.
by wonderfulspam on Jan 25, 2012 3:10 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I just wanted to praise you...
for combining MMA and DnD.
Consider yourself praised.
Amusing aside: A friend of mine played a DnD campaign (back in 3.5) where the entire party essentially played a group of traveling wrestlers. They did all their combat with grapple rolls, tumbles and bare-knuckle brawling.
Reppin' the 202 for The Voice's in Paul Harris' Head. BECW Season 12.
Ha! That’s pretty awesome. I’ve actually played very, very little (A)D&D in my life, I only knew two or three guys who were interested and we’d always wind up playing Legend of Zelda instead.
BECW Season 2 Captain of the Intellegent Northern English Picking Team - 80% more INEPT than all of you, 8 times out of 12
Please visit the Daniel James Miller Foundation and donate.
by wonderfulspam on Jan 25, 2012 4:06 PM EST up reply actions
Also, I think you're both right...
You’re just talking about different things.
I think Luke is gettng at “what’s the easiest round to grab a submission” and you’re getting at “how easy is it to land a submission in a given round.”
Reppin' the 202 for The Voice's in Paul Harris' Head. BECW Season 12.
I think Luke is gettng at "what’s the easiest round to grab a submission" and you’re getting at "how easy is it to land a submission in a given round."
I would argue that those are the same thing. Of course it’s easier to grab a first round sub because by the time round 2 would start, there’s a chance you might already be knocked out but that’s not a very interesting point to make in my opinion.
Common sense (read: Joe Rogan) tells us that it’s easier to latch on to a sub in the first round because fighters are less sweaty. To prove or disprove that theory it makes little sense to say “14% of all fights end in a first round submission, 8% end in a second round submission, hence it’s easier to submit someone in the first round”. Luke’s stats will get you higher scores on MMA Playground but they won’t tell you if a cornerman should tell his fighter to stop looking for the sub once the fight heads into the later rounds.
BECW Season 2 Captain of the Intellegent Northern English Picking Team - 80% more INEPT than all of you, 8 times out of 12
Please visit the Daniel James Miller Foundation and donate.
by wonderfulspam on Jan 25, 2012 4:04 PM EST up reply actions
Thanks for posting this stuff.
I see now exactly what you are getting at.
I went back to my first post, which covered 2011 and re-calculated the numbers:
625 fights.
266 went to decision
210 were stopped in the first round, 104 by submission.
100 were stopped in the second round, 44 by submission.
44 were stopped in the third round, 14 by submission.
5 were stopped in the fourth round, 4 by submission. (Frankie Edgar, wut!)
As percentages, removing all finished fights from the 2nd, 3rd and 4th round calculations:
16% chance of submission in the first round
10% chance of submission in the second round
4.4% chance of submission in the third round
1.4% chance of submission in the fourth round
Does this make sense? Am I expressing it the right way when I say “chance of submission”
I don’t mean to hi-jack your thread skeebop, just want to see if I’ve got this down.
New author at Head Kick Legend
Reach me here: LukeNelsonMMA@gmail.com
I just posted numbers for 2001-2012 below
But just using numbers from 2011-2012, I get:
11% chance of submission in the first round
10% chance of submission in the second round
4% chance of submission in the third round
11% chance of submission in the fourth round
0% chance of submission in the fifth round
The fourth and fifth round stats can be discarded because the sample size is tiny but it’s interesting that the first round submission rate is so much higher in your case (which includes Bellator and Strikeforce in addition to UFC). I would assume this is due to increased likelihood of mismatches.
I find it really interesting that – although your 2011 numbers contradict this – the chance is roughly equal in the first and second round but drops in the third. It should be noted that the (T)KO rate drops as well so I would chalk this up to evenly matched opponents, although the fact that the sub rate drops a little more than the (T)KO rate points towards the idea that subs are harder to come by because of sweat.
BECW Season 2 Captain of the Intellegent Northern English Picking Team - 80% more INEPT than all of you, 8 times out of 12
Please visit the Daniel James Miller Foundation and donate.
by wonderfulspam on Jan 25, 2012 6:20 PM EST up reply actions
The fourth and fifth round stats can be discarded because the sample size is tiny but it’s interesting that the first round submission rate is so much higher in your case (which includes Bellator and Strikeforce in addition to UFC). I would assume this is due to increased likelihood of mismatches.
As I was looking over the 625 fights, Bellator and Strikeforce accounted for very few of the decisions. Especially on the undercard, in 2011, the UFC was decision central.
New author at Head Kick Legend
Reach me here: LukeNelsonMMA@gmail.com
That's something I really want to look into...
but I’ll need to pull the stats for Bellator and Strikeforce, first. Fightmetrix only has that stuff going back to 2008 or so.
Reppin' the 202 for The Voice's in Paul Harris' Head. BECW Season 12.
Ha, no worries...
any stat discussion is welcome here.
Reppin' the 202 for The Voice's in Paul Harris' Head. BECW Season 12.
Thanks, nice articles.
I do plan on breaking this down by pre and post unified rules, at some point, just wanted to get the raw data out there for now.
The data I have provides round, specific method (rnc, armbar, head kick, etc.) and time of finish, so correlating finishes and fight time should be pretty simple. There’s no doubt fatigue plays a role, but that cuts both ways, and I get the feeling it probably evens out.
Reppin' the 202 for The Voice's in Paul Harris' Head. BECW Season 12.
There is a reason this man is on my team.
And it’s because he’s fantastic. Awesome work!!!
BECW SEASON 2 - VOICES IN ROUSIMAR PALHARES' HEAD (C)
Follow me on Twitter @FightRankings
Also on Google+...so, whatever. I don't know. Circle me?
So I broke down the stats by round
I should probably put this in a separate fanpost, but anyway, here are some of my findings:
From UFC 31 (the introduction of the weight classes as we know them) to UFC on FX, counting every fight except DQs and No Contests:
A third (33.4%) of all fights (1550) ended in the first round
- 19.7% or 305 by (T)KO/Doctor Stoppage
- 13.7% or 212 by Submission
- At the beginning of each fight, we can thus say there is a 66.6% chance it sees a second round
If a fight didn’t end in the first round, there was a 28.1% chance it would end in the second round
- 15.7% by (T)KO/Doctor Stoppage
- 12.4% by Submission
If a fight didn’t end in the first two rounds, there was a 15.9% chance it would end in the third round
- 9% by (T)KO/Doctor Stoppage
- 6.9% by Submission
BECW Season 2 Captain of the Intellegent Northern English Picking Team - 80% more INEPT than all of you, 8 times out of 12
Please visit the Daniel James Miller Foundation and donate.
First off, great article skeebop, and nice analysis of the stats, wonderfulspam. This is all amazing stuff.
I was actually starting to put together the numbers for a post about when fights have ended in the past few years, but then I went to bed early, woke up and it’s already here. You guys work quickly.
It’s interesting to see that most finishes really do occur in the first round, with a drop off of around half to second round finishes, and a similar drop to the third – and that this seems to roughly hold up for submissions and (T)KOs. (Or at least, those are the numbers from the past couple of years.)
I’ll just throw out there that for a period of roughly the last two years, I found that about 75 per cent of submissions came by choke, 20% by joint lock and around 5% from ‘other’ (mostly strikes). A bit short of half of all chokes were rear naked chokes, followed by around a quarter of them being guillotines. Those numbers are both significantly higher than traditional guard submissions, like armbars or leg triangles. I wonder if this is due to the ‘diminishing marginal returns’ of submission training, now that it’s become more widespread, as skeebop noted. The guard isn’t quite as mystifying to the majority of opponents now.
You should check out Luke Nelson's articles
That he linked to in a comment above. He’s got a breakdown of submissions since 2006 which also shows that the amount of armbars has gone down with RNCs and guillotines becoming more and more frequent (at least relative to other subs).
One thing that might be interesting would be to divide fights into prelims/maincard/title fights and see if – as I would expect – the number of 1st round TKOs/Subs is higher among the prelim fighters. Of course, being on the prelims doesn’t necessarily mean you’re a lower level fighter (see: Miguel Torres, etc.) but there definitely seems to be a correlation between fighting at a higher level and going to decision. Take Diego Nunes who got into the WEC with 11 finishes in 11 fights; his 8 WEC/UFC fights have all gone to decision. Or take Josh Neer who has gone to decision 6 times in 12 UFC fights and 4 times in his other 32 fights.
BECW Season 2 Captain of the Intellegent Northern English Picking Team - 80% more INEPT than all of you, 8 times out of 12
Please visit the Daniel James Miller Foundation and donate.
by wonderfulspam on Jan 26, 2012 8:36 AM EST up reply actions
I broke the data down by event type
UFC numbered (Fox included), Fight Night (versus and FX included) and TUF Finales. I expected the TUF Finale and FIght Nights to feature more finishes, due to the generally less-skilled fighters on those cards, but there wasn’t a statistically significant difference. Part of that may be the notably smaller sample size, but it still surprised me.
Reppin' the 202 for The Voice's in Paul Harris' Head. BECW Season 12.
That is surprising
It would be nice to break down each fight by a) card type, b) weightclass, c) Prelim/Televised prelim/Maincard/Main Event/Title Fight, d) decision/sub/tko/other.
Over the past half a year (small sample, I know), maincard fights and televised prelims ended in stoppages 63% and 64% of the time whereas prelims went to decisions 58% of the time, meaning only around 42% of the fights ended in stoppages. The total sample is only about 200 fights so it might just be statistical noise, but it still surprises me.
BECW Season 2 Captain of the Intellegent Northern English Picking Team - 80% more INEPT than all of you, 8 times out of 12
Please visit the Daniel James Miller Foundation and donate.
by wonderfulspam on Jan 26, 2012 10:37 AM EST up reply actions
Word.
The data on main\under\prelim isn’t technically in my dataset, but I may be able to piece it together.
Since I posted this, I’ve been working more on fleshing out the data I have than any kind of analysis. I’ve added UFC records for each fighter (and methods of win/loss) at the time of fight and result breakdowns by event type. With the template I have now, if I could just find complete historical data for the other major shows (Pride, Dream, Strikeforce, Bellator, Affliction, Sengoku) I’d have a pretty robust data set. But finding that data in an easily capturable format is pretty tough.
Reppin' the 202 for The Voice's in Paul Harris' Head. BECW Season 12.
I just added it manually
I haven’t seen anywhere (other than Wiki) that has it divided by prelim/maincard.
And that’s really, really awesome, especially the UFC record at the time of the fight.
Regarding other shows: Pride, Strikeforce, Affliction, Dream and some Sengoku, EliteXC, Shooto and K-1 MMA events are already available on FightMetric.
If you had all that then it likely wouldn’t be much of a problem grabbing the remaining stuff off Sherdog and getting the spreadsheet to figure out which weight class a fight is fought at based on a fighter’s previous fights.
BECW Season 2 Captain of the Intellegent Northern English Picking Team - 80% more INEPT than all of you, 8 times out of 12
Please visit the Daniel James Miller Foundation and donate.
by wonderfulspam on Jan 26, 2012 12:15 PM EST up reply actions
Must've been alot of work,
interesting stuff.
"God loves violence... Why else would there be so much of it? It's in us. It's what we are. We wage war, we burn sacrifices, and pillage and plunder and tear at the flesh of our brothers. And why? Because God gave us violence to wage in his honor... There's no moral order at all. There's just this: can my violence conquer yours?"
- Warden of Ashecliffe Hospital
Thanks.
Wasn’t that bad. Took about an hour to grab it off Fightmetrix, and maybe another hour or two in Excel.
Reppin' the 202 for The Voice's in Paul Harris' Head. BECW Season 12.
More work than I've ever put into a fanpost!
Tip of the hat my man.
"God loves violence... Why else would there be so much of it? It's in us. It's what we are. We wage war, we burn sacrifices, and pillage and plunder and tear at the flesh of our brothers. And why? Because God gave us violence to wage in his honor... There's no moral order at all. There's just this: can my violence conquer yours?"
- Warden of Ashecliffe Hospital
by ElliotMatheny on Jan 27, 2012 3:25 AM EST up reply actions
You guys might be interested in the graph that I keep that shows the finish types since UFC 50 based on a sliding 10 event window. Not sure what it tells us but interesting nonetheless.
Good stuff
At the very least it shows a decision growth of 10-15 percentage points. It’s interesting how the sub and TKO numbers have fluctuated so wildly and that the number of decisions has steadily decreased since around UFC 100.
BECW Season 2 Captain of the Intellegent Northern English Picking Team - 80% more INEPT than all of you, 8 times out of 12
Please visit the Daniel James Miller Foundation and donate.
by wonderfulspam on Jan 27, 2012 11:57 AM EST up reply actions
The sub numbers especially spike so much because the avg is so low……about 2 subs per card. If you get 2 cards in 10 that have 4 or 5 subs, thats enough to create the spike.
The most interesting point on subs is that steady patch over about 15 events just before the last peak (from app 75 – 91) The average of that looks to be just above 20% and if you look at the average based on the actual numbers from 75-current it works out to just under 21%. I’d be surprised if the sub % didnt hover around that 20% for quite some time now.
Oh, and to clarify, point 100 on the graph isnt UFC 100, its like 124 or something. Event 1 above is UFC 50 and UFN and Troops etc show are in their too.
Right
Thanks for the clarification. Somehow I missed the part about UFC 50 being the first event in your original comment. So your graph covers about 7½ years, that’s a pretty decent amount of time without going too far back towards the dark ages.
Have you tried running a linear regression on your numbers? It seems like subs and TKOs are following similar downward trajectories but I’d like to see the R^2 values.
Also, is it a coincidence that the TKO rate has increased over the past 14-15 event when Dana White has been saying that UFC on FX continued their streak of “I dunno, 13 or 14 events in a row where the fighters have fucking delivered”? I think not.
BECW Season 2 Captain of the Intellegent Northern English Picking Team - 80% more INEPT than all of you, 8 times out of 12
Please visit the Daniel James Miller Foundation and donate.
by wonderfulspam on Jan 27, 2012 6:45 PM EST up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
MMA Rankings
