Finishing Rates - UFC 1 thru UFC FX 1 - (Stat Geeks)

Login
Sign Up
Google+

Bloody Elbow, for MMA and UFC news

FanPost

Finishing Rates - UFC 1 thru UFC FX 1 - (Stat Geeks)

By skeebop on Jan 25 2012, 11:42a 39

Tweet Share 39 Comments

Before I get started, a quick shout-out to theslynx and his two fanposts that got me interested in this.

Fightmetrix: Please don't sue me. This is your data, and I love you for that. Share the love.

I'll save any real analysis for later, but wanted to get the raw numbers out here so that you folks could see them.

One thing that did jump out at me while working with this data was just how much the UFC grew after 2004 (and TUF season 1). Total fights doubled in 2005, then doubled again in 2006, and have been climbing ever since. The last 30% of the UFC's lifespan (beginning in 2006) has accounted for 75% of its fights.

Anyway, on to the results by weight class.

First, here's the consolidated data for every weight class (including open weight and catch weight):

Year	FIGHTS	SUB	Sub %	KO/TKO	KO/TKO %	FINISH %
1994	32	24	75%	8	25%	100%
1995	36	26	72%	7	19%	92%
1996	39	19	49%	15	38%	87%
1997	40	21	53%	11	28%	80%
1998	25	8	32%	9	36%	68%
1999	39	10	26%	18	46%	72%
2000	39	13	33%	10	26%	59%
2001	38	10	26%	16	42%	68%
2002	49	10	20%	24	49%	69%
2003	38	8	21%	16	42%	63%
2004	37	12	32%	15	41%	73%
2005	72	22	31%	31	43%	74%
2006	139	44	32%	45	32%	64%
2007	167	55	33%	50	30%	63%
2008	201	54	27%	83	41%	68%
2009	209	50	24%	67	32%	56%
2010	248	61	25%	63	25%	50%
2011	294	57	19%	90	31%	50%
2012	19	8	42%	6	32%	74%

A few unsurprising trends, including a gradual reduction in finishing rates and corresponding increase in decisions, but...

What I find most interesting here is that, after a couple big dips in the first 4 years, submission finishing rates have more or less leveled off in the 25-33% range. While there are certainly many other plausible explanations, what this says to me is that submission grappling training suffers from significant diminishing marginal returns (at least as pertains to MMA submission defense). It is logical to assume that, after the first two BJJ-dominated years of the UFC, fighters quickly wised-up and began devoting more training to submission grappling. Within two years, submission rates had fallen to a level they more or less remain at today. For me, this implies that the difference between 0 years and 1 or 2 years of dedicated submission grappling training, is significantly greater than the difference between 2 years of and 5 (or 10, or 20).

Before I get carried away chasing that thread, let's move on to the numbers by weight class, starting with Lightweight:

YEAR	FIGHTS	SUB	Sub %	KO/TKO	KO/TKO %	FINISH %
1997	14	8	57%	3	21%	79%
1998	5	2	40%	3	60%	100%
1999	5	1	20%	1	20%	40%
2000	7	2	29%	2	29%	57%
2001	8	1	13%	4	50%	63%
2002	7	2	29%	2	29%	57%
2003	7	1	14%	3	43%	57%
2004	4	1	25%	1	25%	50%
2005	0	0	0	0	0	0
2006	16	8	50%	5	31%	81%
2007	50	20	40%	10	20%	60%
2008	52	18	35%	12	23%	58%
2009	45	19	42%	10	22%	64%
2010	53	19	36%	7	13%	49%
2011	53	15	28%	15	28%	57%
2012	5	3	60%	1	20%	80%

At lightweight we find a notably lower KO/TKO finishing rate, but a generally higher submission finishing rate, and, other, than a blip in 2006, roughly equivalent overall finishing rates beginning in 2007. I find this interesting, as it implies that LWs attempt to make up for their relative lack of KO power by working more for submission finishes.

I'm off to lunch now. Rest of the numbers are below, I'll update with analysis if I have time later.

Welterweight:

YEAR	FIGHTS	SUB	Sub %	KO/TKO	KO/TKO %	FINISH %
2000	7	3	43%	1	14%	57%
2001	9	3	33%	4	44%	78%
2002	10	2	20%	4	40%	60%
2003	7	4	57%	0	0%	57%
2004	11	4	36%	4	36%	73%
2005	20	8	40%	6	30%	70%
2006	40	14	35%	8	20%	55%
2007	42	17	40%	12	29%	69%
2008	44	9	20%	18	41%	61%
2009	53	11	21%	16	30%	51%
2010	60	15	25%	13	22%	47%
2011	52	8	15%	15	29%	44%
2012	3	1	33%	1	33%	67%

Middleweight:

YEAR	FIGHTS	SUB	Sub %	KO/TKO	KO/TKO %	FINISH %
1998	11	5	45%	3	27%	73%
1999	12	4	33%	8	67%	100%
2000	7	3	43%	2	29%	71%
2001	4	1	25%	0	0%	25%
2002	12	3	25%	8	67%	92%
2003	7	1	14%	4	57%	71%
2004	8	6	75%	1	13%	88%
2005	23	5	22%	11	48%	70%
2006	34	13	38%	10	29%	68%
2007	28	9	32%	11	39%	71%
2008	46	19	41%	16	35%	76%
2009	37	12	32%	10	27%	59%
2010	51	12	24%	12	24%	47%
2011	43	9	21%	16	37%	58%
2012	2	1	50%	1	50%	100%

Light Heavyweight:

YEAR	FIGHTS	SUB	Sub %	KO/TKO	KO/TKO %	FINISH %
2000	4	1	25%	2	50%	75%
2001	8	2	25%	3	38%	63%
2002	8	0	0%	2	25%	25%
2003	5	0	0%	4	80%	80%
2004	4	0	0%	3	75%	75%
2005	14	5	36%	5	36%	71%
2006	30	9	30%	11	37%	67%
2007	33	7	21%	16	48%	70%
2008	30	5	17%	19	63%	80%
2009	34	2	6%	13	38%	44%
2010	34	7	21%	11	32%	53%
2011	33	7	21%	15	45%	67%

Heavyweight:

YEAR	FIGHTS	SUB	Sub %	KO/TKO	KO/TKO %	FINISH %
1997	26	13	50%	8	31%	81%
1998	7	1	14%	3	43%	57%
1999	18	4	22%	8	44%	67%
2000	12	4	33%	2	17%	50%
2001	9	3	33%	5	56%	89%
2002	11	3	27%	8	73%	100%
2003	10	2	20%	5	50%	70%
2004	7	1	14%	6	86%	100%
2005	14	3	21%	9	64%	86%
2006	22	3	14%	12	55%	68%
2007	19	3	16%	6	32%	47%
2008	23	3	13%	17	74%	87%
2009	24	6	25%	13	54%	79%
2010	31	6	19%	16	52%	71%
2011	23	3	13%	12	52%	65%
2012	2	1	50%	1	50%	100%

If Interested, you can grab my spreadsheet from here: https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B5vOqfH1nzfXMTUwNzQxY2QtNjA4Mi00YTBiLWI0Y2MtNzk4YjM0NWJhZmIy

The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.