With the UFC entering a new era for their business with the Fox TV deal, Kid Nate asks "Has the UFC hit an inflection point?" at MMA Nation. He'll be debating the piece with Luke Thomas in their next video chat so add your thoughts in the comments and they'll respond.
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Or cleavage...
Or a Rorschach test where you see what you want to see…
by Damnatio Memoriae on Jan 24, 2012 1:39 PM EST up reply actions
Sucker Punch was pretty cool. They could’ve left out the main story within a story about the girls, mindless action is where it’s at from time to time, JUST BLEEDRAWRRRRRR!!!
Anderson Silva, Edson Barboza, Jose Aldo, Charles Oliveira, Thiago Alves = Muay Thai wrecking machines!
by SentientAndroid on Jan 24, 2012 4:23 PM EST up reply actions
My point was more that
gspmademegay is seeing something that is clearly not a buttcrack as a buttcrack, which seemed completely appropriate to me.
by Damnatio Memoriae on Jan 24, 2012 4:37 PM EST up reply actions
So how many millions has Andy Grove made with that crappy graph?
"Complacency is your demise." - Kerry King
Proud member of Trainyard Sleepers, BECW: S2
We're gonna win, you know. Stats lie.
So he didn't make millions based on that graph
That’s good to know.
"Complacency is your demise." - Kerry King
Proud member of Trainyard Sleepers, BECW: S2
We're gonna win, you know. Stats lie.
3rd Option
Plateau.
UFC ain’t going anywhere anytime soon. Doesn’t mean it’s gonna even come close to the NFL soon either.
If it plateaus...
then we’re not at an inflection point are we?
Exactly. That’s what he is saying.
None of you seem to understand. I'm not locked in here with you. You're locked in here with me!
by Obviously5Believers on Jan 24, 2012 1:55 PM EST up reply actions
The plateau is the inflection point
And it can be long but not eternal. Somewhere down the line the industry will fade, or revive to greater heights
by Arca MMA on Jan 25, 2012 1:18 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Didn’t we pre-visit this last year too?
Getting bent out of shape over a fight promoter lying is like getting upset that a hooker won't kiss you. It betrays a deep lack of understanding of the nature of the profession.
I'd say this is the most critical transition point
since the immediate aftermath of UFC 100. That was the moment when they briefly appeared to have the chance to build things even bigger than UFC 100. Had they been able to put on Brock vs Fedor in late 2009/early 2010 it would have been the biggest fight in US MMA history. Alas Fedor’s business issues and Brock’s health issues made that impossible, nevertheless they were very close to putting it together.
That failure led to the plateau we saw in 2010/2011.
Now they’ve got another chance to either kick things up several notches, hold steady or see their business erode. I think there’s no disputing that they’re at an inflection point now as they begin their relationship with Fox.
Follow me on Twitter @KidNate
Meh, was Fedor really that big of a name back then? With hardcore fans, sure… but mainstream? I’m not sure any of my friends that watch UFC shows on occasion even know who Fedor is.
UFC 100 succeeded because they had their two most marketable guys on it, Lesnar and GSP. If they put on a card with GSP vs Diaz, Silva vs Sonnen and Jones vs Evans for say, UFC 150, it’ll most certainly out-do UFC 100 at the box office. I know I’d buy that event.
2011 was an odd year with all the injuries and headliner shuffling going on. I wouldn’t judge the UFC’s state based on 2011 alone.
Fedor had a very compelling story when he was still undefeated
the NY Times and other major outlets gave him a good deal of coverage for the Brett Rogers fight. Had he fought Brock Lesnar with the UFC’s promo muscles behind it it would’ve been the biggest MMA fight of our era. There’s no doubt about that.
I realize 2011 was marred by injuries but chancing circumstances require changing responses and the UFC chose to stand pat instead of cancelling events. The fact that they’ve finally cancelled an announced PPV shows they’ve learned a lesson from 2010/2011.
Follow me on Twitter @KidNate
The Montreal show was cancelled like 3 months in advance, though. How much advance did they have to react to all the injuries for UFC 108?
I looked it up. Within a month of the show, Condit got injured (slated to face Daley), Gonzaga had to pull out of his fight with JDS, Griffin got injured was to fight Miller, Kampmann also had to pull out. All of these happened within 3-4 weeks of the actual show, a sold out show. They can’t just cancel the show at the last minute.
Inflection Points are business theory at its weakest
Right up there with SWOT analyses.
"All the time he's boxing, he's thinking. All the time he was thinking, I was hitting him." - Jack Dempsey
by Drunken cutman on Jan 24, 2012 1:48 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
What exactly is wrong with SWOT?
Hmm, it’s not so much that there is anything wrong with SWOT, it’s just that it is a very limited approach to business analysis – over simplifying the challenges that a business may face.
SWOT can be useful if used by someone with high levels of market and business knowledge, but a system such as PESTLE would probably be more appropriate, as SWOT will nearly always lend itself to too simle an analysis.
"All the time he's boxing, he's thinking. All the time he was thinking, I was hitting him." - Jack Dempsey
by Drunken cutman on Jan 24, 2012 5:35 PM EST up reply actions
Company Profile / Overview
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
You gotta pay the troll toll to get into this boy's hole, you gotta pay the troll toll to get in.
This is why the study of economics is a huge red herring
This model means nothing unless a company has no ups and downs and has one simple and mathematically predictable rise or decline. This can’t be applied to anything in the real world or else we’d all be rich off the stock market.
It’s the entertainment industry so it’s gonna have booms and busts as stars come and go. Look at basketball. It was huge when Jordan was around. Then he left and it fell off. Then new stars were cultivated and it got big again. Same will happen with the ufc. The old wave of stars are dying off so numbers are starting to even off and fall a bit. Then the next generation will captivate people and it’ll boom again. Let’s not forget the world is very complex. The US losing money hurts things. International expansion and success in developing nations helps things. Other sports will have their own ups and downs causing flux to the ufc. Legality in ny will give it a boon. More exposure as time goes on will help while having more cards will lower individual ratings.
Bottom line is it’s way too complicated to sum up into a simple curve the same way a Childs development into an adult can’t be summed up in a paragraph. Economics is bs
by HighNoon on Jan 24, 2012 1:55 PM EST via mobile reply actions 4 recs
Economics is far more complicated than you’re giving it credit for. Models can, and often do, take into account some of the items you’ve mentioned and far, far more. Many economists are morons, many are not. Many people who attempt to interpret economic analysis are morons, but many are not.
The fact that the UFC has done so extraordinarily well during a terrible economy is very interesting. There is the possibility that they are a kind of inferior good, people choosing to have friends over to watch a $50 PPV instead of all those friends going out on the town. If one rejects that possibility, the likelihood that the UFC will excel when the economy recovers is much greater.
Getting bent out of shape over a fight promoter lying is like getting upset that a hooker won't kiss you. It betrays a deep lack of understanding of the nature of the profession.
I’m not saying it’s simple in saying it’s complicated. This is an illustration of an inflection point. To me the idea of an inflection point in almost any company is absurd, especially the ufc. Have u ever seen a stock graph look anything like an inflection graph. No. It’s all extemely complex from the big things the small things. But the ufc has been up and down for it’s entire existence.
by HighNoon on Jan 24, 2012 4:24 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
It's a generic model...no on expects a business' growth to look exactly like this
There was an important point for the UFC and their trajectory could be greatly effected by it. Sure there are peaks and valleys along the way, but there can certainly be a trendline that follows a rough approximation of that curve.
Ok so chuck liddells ppvs were anomilous peaks compared to Brock lesnars ppvs which was the true highpoint? That’s essentially what your saying
by HighNoon on Jan 24, 2012 4:26 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
This point is insane
And whoever rec’d this is equally of his his/her mind.
by Luke Thomas on Jan 24, 2012 2:41 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I’d hope for better input on a thoroughly thought out comment when the reply is from an editor. Criticism and insults are different all together.
I’m saying any companies ebb and flow is more complicated than a simple inflection point graph. I took Econ and majored in math so I know what both are I’m not just an idiot. Look at the ufcs ppv numbers for the past 10 years. Is it anything like an inflection graph? No.
by HighNoon on Jan 24, 2012 4:29 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 5 recs
If you’d like you can offer an example in the ufcs history that can fit any the inflection point idea. I can’t think of one.
by HighNoon on Jan 24, 2012 4:41 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I can think of several
1) The first season of The Ultimate Fighter, most specifically the first TUF Finale. the curve went exponential after Forrest vs Bonnar but it could have gone flatline had that show been a ratings bust.
2) The immediate aftermath of UFC 100, had some lucky breaks gone their way they could have followed up Brock vs Mir with Brock vs Fedor in Texas Stadium instead they plateaued.
Follow me on Twitter @KidNate
Those are anomalous peaks not parts of an overall trend and ur basing half ur argument off hypotheticals
by HighNoon on Jan 24, 2012 4:55 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Tuf 1 is a good example as to how it is infinitely complex and not fitting to a model. They came up with a marketing plan that went great and boosted their numbers. That could not have been predicted and doesn’t fit into a trend bc it’s the result of the actions of the ufc. That could happen any time someone high up has a great idea to reach a new audience as with tuf brazil
by HighNoon on Jan 24, 2012 4:58 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Also the original point is that the ufc will either exponentially grow or exponentially decay, ignoring how the first part is inaccurate. In reality these are the two least likely outcomes.
If it were to exponentially grow at this point almost every ppv would have to do mayweather numbers bc they already do really good.
For it to exponentially decay mma would have to fall off the map which I think we can safely say won’t happen unless it become illegal.
So why is this little graph so fitting and I’m so wrong. What’s missing in my logic?
by HighNoon on Jan 24, 2012 4:53 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
"What’s missing in my logic?"
An amount of information so substantial it’s easier for me to let you hold onto these silly ideas of yours rather than go through the hard work of spelling it all out. I seriously cannot believe you think what you wrote above here is some sort of cogent point.
When someone turns to insults and runs from actual points they usually no longer have anything good to say. There really isn’t a void in info there that you can point at so ur really just sounding uninformed and childish
by HighNoon on Jan 24, 2012 5:00 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 6 recs
But good job being a member of this staff and having nothing good to say while I add real content. Happy to do ur job for u
by HighNoon on Jan 24, 2012 5:01 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 5 recs
who said anything about the UFC growing or declining exponentially?
the graph is just to illustrate the concept of an inflection point not saying that it has any relationship whatsoever to the UFC’s profits.
all I’m saying is that they’re at a critical juncture in the history of their business not that they’re on the verge of failure or enormous unprecedented success.
Follow me on Twitter @KidNate
How many times are we gonna see the same article? Over the years this kind of thinking has permeated any kind of talk of the UFC as a business. I remember all the doom and gloom predictions when the UFC started running more than one show a month. "The market is saturated! Nobody will pay for multiple PPVs a month! "
How about a more introspective article where we go back into the archives of the MMA media and look at their business predictions for the UFC and other MMA orgs and see how they turned out?
newsflash
I WAS FUCKING RIGHT ABOUT THE UFC RUNNING TOO MANY SHITTY MAIN EVENTS.
When they rain Rashad vs Thiago Silva at UFC 108 and I said “hey guys you might want to watch out that you don’t break your floor” they didn’t listen. From 2008-2009 the worst performing PPVs got at least 350,000 buys (UFC 99), now they routinely drop below 250,000. That is a serious issue that costs them millions.
Their recent decision to cancel UFC 145 in Montreal reflects that they get this reality.
We cover the business side of the UFC as well as the sport side. I find it interesting and so do many of our readers. I didn’t hear people complaining when we ran the “UFC sets new records” story for 2.5 years.
Follow me on Twitter @KidNate
by Nate Wilcox on Jan 24, 2012 2:10 PM EST up reply actions 5 recs
Just plain ‘ol too many events also. maybe the oversaturation won’t be a problem with the potential influx of new fans\new fanbase due to Fox
not really
They’re not even doing more than 1 event a week at this point.
"God loves violence... Why else would there be so much of it? It's in us. It's what we are. We wage war, we burn sacrifices, and pillage and plunder and tear at the flesh of our brothers. And why? Because God gave us violence to wage in his honor... There's no moral order at all. There's just this: can my violence conquer yours?"
- Warden of Ashecliffe Hospital
by ElliotMatheny on Jan 24, 2012 6:43 PM EST up reply actions
16 shows at 400k average makes more money than 12 shows at 500k average. The
UFC’s still making money with 200k buys, aren’t they?
If my in depth wikipedia research is correct, 108 made about $2million at the gate and $1.5million with US PPV… with about $850k in fighter salary. There’s a lot of other factors, costs like staffing and advertising and venue costs… then extra revenue from merchandise, international broadcast rights, and replay values…
So yeah, it’s hard to imagine they’re hurting over putting on weaker events like this… but it’s likely these type of shows will end up on Fox or FX. I love the idea of loading this weekend’s Fox card with #1 contender fights to get more people amped up for the PPVs where the title fights will happen.
Getting bent out of shape over a fight promoter lying is like getting upset that a hooker won't kiss you. It betrays a deep lack of understanding of the nature of the profession.
they're not hurting
it’s not an either/or binary proposition rather it’s a question of how well will they do. UFC 108 was one of a long string of weak PPV headliners but it was significant because it was their New Year’s show, historically a big show for the organization.
Follow me on Twitter @KidNate
yeah
but they made a whole hell of a lot more money when they had a nice secure floor of 350K dedicated fans who bought everything they put on PPV.
The problem with breaking your floor is you don’t know how low the new floor will be. If they get to a point where a weak ppv only does 100,000 buys they’re in a much weaker position.
Follow me on Twitter @KidNate
I suppose… also, that UFC 108 show was riddled by the most injuries ever… it’s not really fair to use this show as an example of the UFC putting on too many shows…
by Shnak on Jan 24, 2012 2:29 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
well it would have been an ideal show to post-pone or cancel
if they’d merged UFC 107 and UFC 108 they’d have had one hell of a new year’s show.
Follow me on Twitter @KidNate
See above… up until the beginning of December, UFC 108 had this lineup:
Nogueira vs Velasquez
Evans vs Silva
Gonzaga vs JDS
Daley vs Condit
Griffin vs Miller
Kampmann vs Markham
Cantwell vs Matyushenko
Pyle vs Ellenberger
Lauzon vs Stout
This was a stacked show. Had it not been for all the injuries, this should would’ve done great.
I disagree. You can’t post-pone a show a month in advance. People have planned trips, reserved hotels, booked flights, not to mention the fighters themselves. They’re ready to go, anxious to finally fight after months of training. “Oh sorry, we cancelled your fights because we felt the card would suck. You’ll get paid in 3-4 months when we can find another card for you guys. But thanks anyways!” And besides, UFC shows always, or almost always, deliver, no matter who’s on the main card.
by Shnak on Jan 24, 2012 3:02 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Agreed
The only thing they could’ve done, really, would be to offer some sort of discount on the PPV price (eg. buy this one and get $10 off your next PPV purchase).
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by wonderfulspam on Jan 24, 2012 3:05 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
what is the evidence that weak cards caused them to break their floor?
i would agree the new floor is lower, but is that due to weak cards? correlation does not mean causation. after all, the people that bought UFC 108 were treated to (by and large) a pretty good show. not sure they would stop watching about that.
i think it may be too many cards, even if they are all are good! the ufc had a crazy number of cards last fall but they weren’t weak (one was even a free title fight!)
and i also think that for some people UFC was just a fad. for me, i love the sport, even as some figures are moving on. others seem to have just lost interest. it was something they enjoyed, along with the reality show, for a few years (culminating in bisping getting smoked at UFC 100).
also, i don’t think it helps that they left spike. i don’t like that channel either, but for whatever reason it really delivered the goods. a lot of UFC “fans” can’t even seem to be bothered to figure out what channel the new programming is on now.
so i don’t think you can say you’re right (although you can’t say you’re wrong either).
by Clifford J on Jan 24, 2012 3:05 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
you're making good points
I think the weak cards/ too many cards are essentially the same thing. they’re running too many too weak cards. that in conjunction with the fad having passed and the economy are hurting their biz.
I can say that I was warning them about their product getting diluted before their numbers dropped and that their numbers later dropped.
I can say that I’m worth paying attention to when I analyze their business.
Follow me on Twitter @KidNate
you tha maaaannnn
I can say that I was warning them about their product getting diluted before their numbers dropped and that their numbers later dropped.
I can say that I’m worth paying attention to when I analyze their business.
Follow me on Twitter @KidNate
Dont act like your shit dont stink
People saying there is too much of x content
Don’t really understand blogs
Cecil People's Champs
Still the head conductor of the Charles Oliveira hype train.
Luke Thomas, eh?
Thought he was gone?
Cecil People's Champs
Still the head conductor of the Charles Oliveira hype train.
no
Luke left 106.7 THE FAN and went to Sirius. He’s still writing for SBNation. That won’t change.
Follow me on Twitter @KidNate
What if he shittalked your awesome hat?
Perfectplex, Irish Whip and then a Hurricanrana?
"Now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb."
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by menckenstein on Jan 24, 2012 2:35 PM EST up reply actions
When did I ever say I was leaving SB Nation? I only EVER said I was leaving CBS Radio for SiriusXM. That’s it.
Forgot about Luke.
Nowadays everybody wanna talk like they got something to say
But nothin’ comes out when they move their lips
Just a buncha gibberish
And muthafuckas act like they forgot about Dre Luke.
"You've got Floyd Mayweather making $25 million. He can't stop a double-leg..." Nick Diaz.
I misunderstood
Because your show was called mma nation, and then someone in the comments mentioned really liking your videos with nate and how he would miss them.
Glad to hear it.
Cecil People's Champs
Still the head conductor of the Charles Oliveira hype train.
I'm not sure if they're there yet
I think we’ll have to wait until the end of the current Fox deal to see this inflection point, honestly. There’s too many outside factors in play right now and they grew so quickly to begin with there’s not a lot to compare it to.
Disclaimer: I’m talking out my ass, never let me run a business.
"Now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb."
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That man has a talking ass, give him a business!
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by RECE ROCK on Jan 24, 2012 9:14 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
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