UFC on FX Fallout: Potential And The Illusion of Inevitability
by David Castillo on Jan 22, 2012 5:00 PM EST
in UFC Editorial
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It's a familiar scene in the MMA world. Before the fight, fans exalt the natural ability of Melvin Guillard, and eagerly await some sort of evolution to his game. And then afterwards it's either ‘Guillard is a beast!', or ‘If only Melvin would fight to his potential'.
The UFC on FX card showcased both responses. Guillard came out and looked really good for the first two minutes. He rocked Jim Miller, and even when Miller was going for takedowns, Melvin countered with his uncanny balance and strength.
Suddenly Melvin makes a mistake, having tossed what felt like his eleventh consecutive jumping knee inside of two minutes, and Miller capitalizes by taking Guillard to the ground. As Melvin lazily tries to establish guard, Miller passes, Guillard explodes out, Jim maintains control, and Melvin taps with two minutes and four seconds left in the first round.
You don't have to train jiu jitsu to see what Melvin did wrong. Yes, to the educated observer he made technical mistakes, but his worst mistake was panicking.
In response to Melvin's performance, various fans are back to their own brand of apologetics. Dana White noted to Ariel Helwani that he's "waiting for this kid to take things serious". And Tristen Critchfield over at Sherdog argues that patience is what's missing in Guillard's game.
I don't think there's anything wrong with these interpretations, as Guillard has given credence to both in explicit ways. But I would argue instead that what's missing is not simply patience, and focus, but skill. Talent, instinct, aptitude, craft, prowess...all the things Melvin Guillard is praised for are simultaneously traits that he is certifiably lacking.
One of our readers wrote a splendid post on the fallacy of wasted potential. Simply put, Guillard's loss is a revelation of who he is, not of who he can be.
If there's a sport more forgiving to the narrative of ‘potential', it's MMA. We tend to think of a mixed martial artist like a boat with his flaws representing holes that can simply be plugged during a leak. But the truth is that he or she is instead like a sieve. There are too many ways to lose, and the ways in which a loss can be set up is exponentially greater making it impossible to avoid adversity. And that adversity tends to beget defeat.
None of this is meant to pick on Guillard. He's still a good fighter, and I could absolutely see him walking into Bellator, and absolutely throttling an Eddie Alvarez or Michael Chandler. On the contrary. UFC on FX was a great place to examine the meaning of "potential".
Duane Ludwig used to be the poster boy for this fallacy of wasted potential. Following his win over Japanese icon Genki Sudo at UFC 42, many fans felt like Ludwig just needed to work on his ground game. I'm sure he did. But that didn't stop him from getting submitted over and over, and he's had nearly a decade to work on his flaws.
Pat Barry spoke of his ground game experiencing ‘tremendous growth' leading up to his fight with Christian Morecraft, and I doubt anyone questions that he probably dedicated a significant amount of time to grappling training. And yet during the fight, Barry nearly became the first fighter ever to lose by a no-hooks rear naked choke twice, and it's not like it was Caol Uno lurking behind him. Off his back, Barry's guard proved to be as elusive as the Higgs Boson. But credit where credit is due: his flaws were on such dramatic display that it allowed him to steal ninety thousand dollars away from Mike Easton and Jared Papazian.
It's easy to look at these fighters, and make the mistake of thinking they owe themselves just a little more dedication. We see their qualities in one area, and naturally assume they can be applied elsewhere with a little focus, and diligence. But these qualities merely set up the illusion of inevitability. If you want to see the mechanics of inevitability set up by potential, watch a Jose Aldo fight.
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Awesome piece
As always, you capture the reasons why a monocausal narrative doesn’t do justice to the complexity of the situation.
Proud member of The Voices in Paul Harris' Head, BECW Season 2.
"By doubting we come to inquiry and by inquiry we perceive the truth." -- Abelard
Thanks
keep cranking out those fanposts. I’ve been enjoying your work.
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by David Castillo on Jan 22, 2012 5:23 PM EST up reply actions
Thanks!
There’ll be a new one in a couple of days.
Proud member of The Voices in Paul Harris' Head, BECW Season 2.
"By doubting we come to inquiry and by inquiry we perceive the truth." -- Abelard
by Patrick Wyman on Jan 22, 2012 5:54 PM EST up reply actions
We tend to think of a mixed martial artist like a boat with his flaws representing holes that can simply be plugged during a leak.
best thing I’ve read in a while, so true
Now I've switched signature to this one.
by the guy with the big nose on Jan 22, 2012 5:08 PM EST reply actions
Fighters tend to stay the same more or less after a few years in the sport. If there good they normally start out good, someone like Megareem is one of the rare case were a veteran fighter really turned them selfs around.
Its odd to me that so many fighters are basically the same fight after fight, is it a training issue? Or is it simply they are improving slowly but so is everyone else so unless you make big improvements you look like your the same guy over and over again.
I am free because I choose to be so-Me
I think part of it is once your fighting regularly
you don’t have the time to devote to any one aspect of your game to improve it to a significant enough degree to make an impact in fights.
To have a Cannae you must have a Varo
-George Patton
"The complete man must work, study and wrestle."
-Aristotle
But a lot of the time, they fight less once they reach a UFC level, and they have more money for better training,etc. Its really strange to me how fighters seems to just stay the same after only a relativity short time in the sport. Of course many of them have been training a lot longer than fighting pro.
I am free because I choose to be so-Me
but you can't do a Gunnar Nelson
and take a year off you build your BJJ game or work on wrestling.
Guys like a GSP build their game by not taking anytime and working on specialized training targeted to take one or two things away.
the more I talk about this it might be more of a reflection that right now this sport is so young there isn’t a truly established way to train in MMA. Each camp is working on its own focus and systems of building fighters.
To have a Cannae you must have a Varo
-George Patton
"The complete man must work, study and wrestle."
-Aristotle
I think this is changing as we speak
I wrote a piece on prospect development a couple of weeks ago, and the biggest commonality between the exciting young fighters coming up right now, regardless of weight class, is the fact that they didn’t rush into the big leagues; they all took their time to fully develop their games at the local and regional level before moving to a major promotion.
Proud member of The Voices in Paul Harris' Head, BECW Season 2.
"By doubting we come to inquiry and by inquiry we perceive the truth." -- Abelard
by Patrick Wyman on Jan 22, 2012 5:40 PM EST up reply actions
So they will change even less, if they aren’t great in 5 fights, they never will be for the vast majority of them.
I am free because I choose to be so-Me
Not necessarily
I’m saying that really bright young prospects don’t have the glaring holes in their game to begin with. Fighters can always improve, especially if they start fighting at 19 or 20, are in the UFC by 23 or 24, and peak around age 26 (which seems to be the most common pattern).
Proud member of The Voices in Paul Harris' Head, BECW Season 2.
"By doubting we come to inquiry and by inquiry we perceive the truth." -- Abelard
by Patrick Wyman on Jan 22, 2012 5:46 PM EST up reply actions
The biggest fallacy in MMA is that fighters Improve. They don’t. By and large, the fighter you are on your first fight in the UFC is exactly who you will be through your career. Now, fighters can make tweaks. They can marginally get better at what they are already good at. However, more then likely, what happens is you get a streak of favorable style matchups (Melvin prior to lauzon, Kos fighting guys like Yoshida) where we get to hear the announcers drone on ad nauseum about how improved Joe Blow is…..til Kos gets in with GSP and it’s right back to sloppy overhand rights, or Melvin gets tapped by Lauzon in 30 seconds. Styles make fights, and no one ever improves: the fundamental laws of MMA
by Hutchy on Jan 22, 2012 5:49 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I disagree a little. I think they do improve early in their career but stagnate up to a certain point. I guess to me the fallacy is that fighters can just continually improve their skills. Just take your Koscheck example, the guy went from zero stand-up to being able to knock people out. That to me is an improvement but he has stagnated. His striking will probably won’t go beyond trying to time landing overhands.
I agree, fighters do improve, but they also peak
GSP’s wrestling improved right in front of eyes. Go watch the jay hieron fight and you’ll see a big difference
Florian got better wrestling
Kos got better striking
Griffin got better grappling, which I think if he got better at wrestling and made it a focus he would be nasty!
Sonnet got amazing out of a mediocre base of mma
Even Brock lesner developed his game and even submitted carwin.
Nick Diaz improved his striking, I don’t care what anyone says, I know he was always good but he was t a world beater like today, and I think it because he empresses his punches with bunches style. He even wanted to box.
Condit got better at everything IMO
Kampmann is near impossible to take down now and Alves has gotten even worse (not bashing him, but it’s because I think he’s off the juice)
and JON FUCKING JONES!! Got better at every thing right in front of our eyes, especially his striking and range use
Seriously don't take me serious. Seriously....
What about Rampage?
"I want to tell me what you see, let's go ahead and see by the fight, what you saw, in the ring."
by Horselover Fat on Jan 22, 2012 8:39 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Rampage is vastly better than when he fought Sakuraba
Even if his skills have deteriorated since the end of PRIDE.
by discoandherpes on Jan 23, 2012 6:24 AM EST up reply actions
Definitely. I wasn’t really asking, I was just.. well, maybe you remember that fanpost some weeks back? That was good old FUBAR, so I was just being a dick basically.
"I want to tell me what you see, let's go ahead and see by the fight, what you saw, in the ring."
by Horselover Fat on Jan 23, 2012 11:27 AM EST up reply actions
Oh fuck me
I didn’t even make the correlation.
by discoandherpes on Jan 23, 2012 2:59 PM EST up reply actions
I agree with some of this, I’ll add a caveat: if you are a once in a generation talent, truly a special freak of nature, you can improve. I include two men in this: Jonny Bones and GSP. Thats it. To give credit where it is due, Nick Diaz HAS vastly improved his striking. I disagree completely on Florian. Sonnen, hmmmm, odd how that works, some guy gets some huge surge of effectiveness late in his career. Odd how that happens LOL
That improvement point you brought up applies to everything though. For example, I used to break dance, but there is just a point where improvement becomes slower and slower. You get used to certain moves and whatnot, and it’s just difficult to teach your body new things. It’s hard to explain really. It’s really not a training issue as it applies to everyone in everything.
Check out the C&D Channel on YouTube at: http://www.youtube.com/user/Gobusiness123 for MMA reviews, predictions, analysis, and other MMA related content.
this makes sense. When I was first learning to kick i was terrible.
Then I got better and better and could reach higher and higher until I could unlock my hips and chuck my foot above my height easily and they didnt get any better after that.
its muscle memory.
Seriously don't take me serious. Seriously....
reem is turning it around by beating alot of talent that is no where near his
look at his record since staying at heavyweight his best victory was werdum. it was ugly but it was a win. some people would say lesnar but brock was on his way out he didn’t look like he wanted to fight. he proved his point and he walks off into the sunset with a bad full of money.
Duane Ludwig used to be the poster boy for this fallacy of wasted potential. Following his win over Japanese icon Genki Sudo at UFC 42, many fans felt like Ludwig just needed to work on his ground game. I’m sure he did. But that didn’t stop him from getting submitted over and over, and he’s had nearly a decade to work on his flaws.
this really gets to something that Jordan Breen likes to hit on, this idea in the heads of MMA fans that skills just continue to grow in linear path. More time spent training means the level of skill in that area will just grow and grow and grow. But the fact of the matter is that isn’t how it works, athletes, even great ones hit a ceiling at some point.
Being a great athlete or having great physical gifts doesn’t translate into sports success every single time. How many times have seen the poster boy athlete fail in the NFL, NBA, MLB and NHL? So why should MMA be any different?
And some athletic skill sets aren’t great for all aspects of MMA. What made Brock Lesnar so intimidating on the ground, his bulk and strength, is also what made him an inept striker no matter how hard he worked on his boxing.
To have a Cannae you must have a Varo
-George Patton
"The complete man must work, study and wrestle."
-Aristotle
Yep
though I always think of Gegard Mousasi: the guy will simply never be able to stop a takedown, but what’s so strange about Mousasi is knowing he has a good ground game, and watching him get mounted by the utterly green Ovince St. Preux.
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by David Castillo on Jan 22, 2012 5:23 PM EST up reply actions
Mousasi is such an enigma
I feel like we have no idea how good he really is or can be. Until he starts getting matched up with better competition on a regular basis, he’ll continue to be a mystery.
Proud member of The Voices in Paul Harris' Head, BECW Season 2.
"By doubting we come to inquiry and by inquiry we perceive the truth." -- Abelard
by Patrick Wyman on Jan 22, 2012 5:35 PM EST up reply actions
This made me think of Joe Rogan
When he talks about guys who are amazing in one area working on another, and he’ll say that a guy who got incredibly good at one thing can always do the same with another just because he knows the dedication it takes. I’ve never really agreed with that because it’d be like saying Slash could become a great drummer if he took the time to learn the drums – some guys are just more adept at one thing than they are another, regardless of athletic ability.
i think there is a mental aspect to getting really good at something
but I don’t think it always translates the way Rogan imagines it does.
He always says this with Demian Maia, and his improving boxing. Is his improvement from Day 1 in the UFC impressive? Yes. Is being even an average striker in the UFC an accomplishment for your regular person? Yes, just look at regional MMA.
I’m sure a big part of that is Maia’s mental fortitude and just that extra “it” factor that truly excellent competitors have, but Maia is never going to be able to really strike at the top levels of the sport. He just isn’t built for it, he isn’t blessed with great speed, or lots of fast twitch muscle or naturally heavy hands. Maia is basically as good a striker right now as he will ever be.
To have a Cannae you must have a Varo
-George Patton
"The complete man must work, study and wrestle."
-Aristotle
And that is not a very good striker, but its not just genetics, Maia still has many basic flaws in his game, hands are often low, punches are sloppy,etc. Those kinds of technical issues make me wonder what his camp is doing with him.
An even better example Stefan Struve, his stand is terrible and at one point they released a video of him sparring with his kickboxing couch and he looked terrible, hands low, chin in the air, not much of a jab going on. Those videos are usually release to impress(and often don’t really show reality) and this one just made Stefan look bad as always. So is his couch terrible or Struve is just not very trainable/ a bad student?
I am free because I choose to be so-Me
big guy like him
most are just not coordinated or every 6’8"+ guy would be in the NBA. being big isn’t enough you have to be able to make your body do what you want it to do.
To have a Cannae you must have a Varo
-George Patton
"The complete man must work, study and wrestle."
-Aristotle
Can’t keep his chin down? Hands up? Force himself to use a jab?
I am free because I choose to be so-Me
this is true
I think that is bad coaching
To have a Cannae you must have a Varo
-George Patton
"The complete man must work, study and wrestle."
-Aristotle
With Maia, it could just be the application of those boxing skills into a real life setting. These fighters are also getting hit, getting fatigued, and worrying about takedowns, and whatnot. Guys can look great in the gym, but the fight is a totally different story.
Check out the C&D Channel on YouTube at: http://www.youtube.com/user/Gobusiness123 for MMA reviews, predictions, analysis, and other MMA related content.
Exactly
But compare him to Jacare, who absolutely does have the speed and athleticism to become a really good striker. Part of the problem is the overall lower standard of athleticism among MMA fighters as compared to other sports. There are maybe a half dozen guys currently fighting in a major organization who have that kind of world-class, translatable athleticism; those are the guys who could conceivably be successful at whatever they tried, there just aren’t many of them.
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"By doubting we come to inquiry and by inquiry we perceive the truth." -- Abelard
by Patrick Wyman on Jan 22, 2012 5:39 PM EST up reply actions
well what is World-Class atleticism in MMA?
Wide Receivers in U.S. football are generally considered fantastic athletes. To be truly great you have to be able to accelerate quickly, run at a high top speed, be strong enough to fight off the press, be able to leap high and be coordinated enough to catch the ball no matter where it is.
Now, how many of those things matter at all in MMA? I’d argue the best “athletes” in the sport of MMA who are built for a fighter sport are the Diaz brothers. Long, strong, excellent ability to absorb damage, heavy hands, flexible and awesome cardio. They’d get killed on the football field but there isn’t an NFL player at their weight I think could take them in an MMA fight, even with a lifetime to prepare.
To have a Cannae you must have a Varo
-George Patton
"The complete man must work, study and wrestle."
-Aristotle
by T.P. Grant on Jan 22, 2012 5:44 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I agree
That there are many different attributes that come under the heading of athleticism, and what you pointed out for the Diaz brothers is one particularly successful combination of them. That set, however, is exceedingly rare, and the other attributes of explosiveness, knockout power, raw strength, and conditioning are by and large more predictive of success.
Let’s take a hypothetical 18 year old with the kind of athletic talent to be a wide receiver in the NFL. If he walked into a quality MMA gym instead of a college scholarship, I have little doubt that those athletic qualities would translate exceedingly well to MMA: he’d hit harder, move faster, and pick up new skills more quickly than the vast majority of his peers.
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by Patrick Wyman on Jan 22, 2012 5:53 PM EST up reply actions
maybe, maybe not
I think that the NFL, NBA and other major sports do take up athletes that could succeed in combat sports, but I don’t think every NFL player or even the majority of them could have been great fighters if that was where they dedicated themselves.
To have a Cannae you must have a Varo
-George Patton
"The complete man must work, study and wrestle."
-Aristotle
Sure, not every guy
We’re assuming a lot of hypotheticals, including an enjoyment of personal violence. But far more NFL players would become really good fighters than vice versa.
Proud member of The Voices in Paul Harris' Head, BECW Season 2.
"By doubting we come to inquiry and by inquiry we perceive the truth." -- Abelard
by Patrick Wyman on Jan 22, 2012 6:07 PM EST up reply actions
well I guess the more I think about it
NFL guys would fit into the weightclasses of HW, LHW, and MW. Divisions with shallow talent pools, I guess they could make a serious impact.
To have a Cannae you must have a Varo
-George Patton
"The complete man must work, study and wrestle."
-Aristotle
Mitrione and Schaub
Both decent athletes by NFL standards, but near the top of the heap when it comes to MMA. I’m not high on guys who have a full football career first, though, since their skill development tends to be so far behind and they’ve already taken so much head trauma.
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by Patrick Wyman on Jan 22, 2012 6:28 PM EST up reply actions
we'll see about those two
Mitrione’s lack of ground game is going to hurt him at the upper levels of that division. His striking is developing quickly though.
Schaub’s stock I think is helped by how good Nog looked against Mir until he got his arm broken. I have more faith in Schaub’s future prospects than Mitrione.
To have a Cannae you must have a Varo
-George Patton
"The complete man must work, study and wrestle."
-Aristotle
I think Schaub
Will eventually end up on the top-10 list and stay there for a while, and Mitrione will be a fun top-15 or -20 kind of guy. Neither will ever win or probably even challenge for a title, IMO – they simply started too late (especially Mitrione), and despite the lack of depth at heavyweight I just don’t think they’ll ever get there.
Proud member of The Voices in Paul Harris' Head, BECW Season 2.
"By doubting we come to inquiry and by inquiry we perceive the truth." -- Abelard
by Patrick Wyman on Jan 22, 2012 6:49 PM EST up reply actions
He has knock out power, but his chin is never even close to tucked(its kept comical high and open) and his hands are all over the place. To me he does not look that much better than before and his ground game is bad. I think we won’t see any major improvements with Matt.
I am free because I choose to be so-Me
Can he make it to the top? Thats hard to say
But I don’t think he’ll do it staying at Imperial
I just want to point something out…
Here’s a fighter that through his own admission has touted himself as a State wrestling champ. He’s been wrestling since he’s been a child… his cousin is Daniel Cormier, etc, etc, etc.
When Miller took Melvin to the ground as you put it, he lazily tried to pass guard. During the Lozon fight he fared about the same
Bendo exposed some flaws in Miller’s game by using his wrestling and wrestling defense to frustrate him, why wouldn’t Melvin and his camp try to repeat the same success?
Did Gulliard really think that Miller would keep the fight standing? And those flying\jumping knees were fucking ridiculous. It possible he could have caught Miller once with that surprise move… But four times….what the hell was he thinking?
I do everything in my life so my family will love me and my friends will respect me. Everyone else can do as they please
by jack knight starman on Jan 22, 2012 5:19 PM EST via mobile reply actions
And I am a Melvin fan but his performance on Friday was fucking pathetic
I do everything in my life so my family will love me and my friends will respect me. Everyone else can do as they please
by jack knight starman on Jan 22, 2012 5:23 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I agree
that he clearly made significant mental errors. But the biggest errors occurred once he was on the ground. The problem with Guillard is not that he’s skilled and doesn’t keep his head on his shoulders (that’s part of it), but that he’s not skilled: To get submitted so quickly simply reveals that if he didn’t tap out during a flying knee, he would have tapped out eventually as I doubt Melvin could have avoided going to the ground the entire fifteen minutes.
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by David Castillo on Jan 22, 2012 5:27 PM EST up reply actions
If Melvin tried to play a gameplan of using wrestling to take Miller down like Bendo did he would have had a short night. Miller hit multiple deep subs on Henderson, a much better grappler than Melvin, that a guy like Guillard would not be getting out of (deep knee bar, kimura with his leg stepped over the head.) Miller’s guard is probably the most dangerous in the division. His only chance in the fight was staying standing for 15 minutes, or however it long to get the stoppage, which just makes the jumping knees even more glaring of a sign of low fight IQ.
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Some fighters just can't work it with a ground game to fend off takedowns & submissions.
Add Melvin to the list. He’s just like another Paul Daley.
There's a big difference between those guys, though
Melvin has been working in a camp with specialists and fantastic coaches who should have been, and presumably were, working on precisely those weaknesses. Daley has shown real improvement on the ground (he wasn’t totally helpless against Woodley) despite not having the environmental advantages that Melvin does.
Proud member of The Voices in Paul Harris' Head, BECW Season 2.
"By doubting we come to inquiry and by inquiry we perceive the truth." -- Abelard
by Patrick Wyman on Jan 22, 2012 5:31 PM EST up reply actions
Which makes Melvin's situation all the worse
What’s the name of Melvin’s head trainer at Imperial? Mike Aresdale or some such? Isn’t he a wrestling coach by trade?
Furthermore you have wrestlers in your camp like Rashad and Johnson. His wrestling training and TTD should have been priority one during his camp. If it was HE should have been pushing the pace and the match with Miller on the ground not the other way around…
I do everything in my life so my family will love me and my friends will respect me. Everyone else can do as they please
by jack knight starman on Jan 22, 2012 5:40 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
As others have said fantastic article David
I do everything in my life so my family will love me and my friends will respect me. Everyone else can do as they please
by jack knight starman on Jan 22, 2012 5:43 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Mike van Arsdale
Is his head coach. I agree with David’s point, though – I have a really hard time believing that Melvin and his coaches have just ignored the holes in his game. Maybe he needs to see a sports psychologist or something.
Proud member of The Voices in Paul Harris' Head, BECW Season 2.
"By doubting we come to inquiry and by inquiry we perceive the truth." -- Abelard
by Patrick Wyman on Jan 22, 2012 5:44 PM EST up reply actions
Great piece.
Would like to see a follow up comparing Barry,Ludwig and Guillard and how Barry was able to overcome his weaknesses unlike Ludwig and Guillard. I thought that armbar was it for Barry’s UFC career idk how the hell he got out of it but it was nice to see his improvement.
I hate to be negative about anyone's performance...
But am I the only one that wasn’t impressed by Barry on the ground? The KO was awesome but if anything I thought him escaping from the mount and giving his back TWICE by standing up and getting out of an armbar with his arm fully extended showed more negatively on Morecraft than positively on Barry.
Don't be scared Gomi...
by ThatsHowIRoll on Jan 22, 2012 5:42 PM EST up reply actions
no you are not the only one
I was on twitter with a few BJJ guys and we all were very unimpressed with Barry’s “improvements”.
He didn’t panic in the armbar, but he also allowed Morecraft to basically flop on top of him into the mount and never once attempted something as basic as a hip escape. His survival on the ground was more the result of Morecraft being sloppy.
To have a Cannae you must have a Varo
-George Patton
"The complete man must work, study and wrestle."
-Aristotle
by T.P. Grant on Jan 22, 2012 5:47 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
THANK YOU!
I didn’t want to be that guy because he was getting such epic praise but seriously the guy was on bottom in high mount twice and his defense was to roll over and give his back then stand up? And the armbar, how Morecraft didn’t break that arm off is beyond me. Oh well still happy to see him get the win.
Don't be scared Gomi...
by ThatsHowIRoll on Jan 22, 2012 5:53 PM EST up reply actions
yeah I was glad he won
but if Morecraft had locked down the mount either time he had it and dropped some punches, and made Barry work to get out I think we’d be having a whole different talk
To have a Cannae you must have a Varo
-George Patton
"The complete man must work, study and wrestle."
-Aristotle
He does deserve some praise
For not panicking, though. I think that was the biggest difference compared to his previous performances: he probably had the technical knowledge to escape a bad situation, but not the focus to figure out his escape.
Proud member of The Voices in Paul Harris' Head, BECW Season 2.
"By doubting we come to inquiry and by inquiry we perceive the truth." -- Abelard
by Patrick Wyman on Jan 22, 2012 5:57 PM EST up reply actions
he does
but his response to his situation was basically the same as Melvin’s, his opponent didn’t have the skill to capitalize.
To have a Cannae you must have a Varo
-George Patton
"The complete man must work, study and wrestle."
-Aristotle
by T.P. Grant on Jan 22, 2012 6:00 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
A bit rough on Pat Barry methinks
His defence and escape from the arm bar was a huge improvement on his past ground performances, the difference was very apparent IMO. It feels like you have spun his performance to suit the theme of the article rather than look at it fairly and objectively.
"You're one microscopic cog in his catastrophic plan, Designed and directed by his red right hand"
^ Exactly
look at his last fight prior to Morecraft his only defense was a hail marry rampage style slam when that didn’t work he tapped immediately.
by nickrodamous on Jan 22, 2012 6:02 PM EST up reply actions
there is a big difference between Struve's triangle and that armbar
the triangle choke is how Struve pays his bills, it is his go-to submission and he is great at it.
Morecaft’s arm bar was only a real threat for about a second and going for a belly down armbar from the back is a huge risk, and it was never really on. Props to Barry for getting out, but I’d still pick any guy with any sort of ground game to tap Barry in the future.
To have a Cannae you must have a Varo
-George Patton
"The complete man must work, study and wrestle."
-Aristotle
I wasn't
impressed with Barry at all, and so that’s certainly part of it. While the armbar escape was nice, it was always only a matter of time before Morecraft submitted him since every time they hit the ground, he was instantly in trouble. I don’t think I spun his performance to suit the theme of the article at all: Barry’s ground game still very much sucks. Scoring a miracle left hand doesn’t change that. Did anyone watch that fight and think ‘yea, Barry won’t get submitted next time someone takes him to the ground’? I probably am being a bit ‘harsh’, but I’m still mad Easton and Papazian didn’t get the rightful bonus.
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by David Castillo on Jan 22, 2012 8:59 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I felt like there was obvious improvement on Pats part.
Even though he still got into trouble rather easily he stayed calm, worked on wrist control and listened to his corner. He’s in no way safe from being submitted in the future, but if he keeps improving he will extend his UFC career. Being a smaller heavyweight he should be expecting these kinds of fights and working out with Deathclutch seems like a good call by him so far.
Oh no you didn't.--Nick Ring
by NickRingp4pGOAT on Jan 23, 2012 12:30 PM EST up reply actions
I doubt the talent is a factor, studies have shown that it’s the time you put in a gym that counts . Therefore will someone who transitions inte MMA from boxning not be able to stop the takedowns from a wrestler since 2 years takedowndefence < a lifetime of wrestling.
Beckham was not born to have the best free kicks in the world, he shot a hundreds of thousands and therefore became the best in the world.
So it’s not missing talent, it’s in the head and lacking of trainings hours. Melvins problem is that the moment it goes to the ground, he panics and instead of thinking “Relax, I’ve trained this a hundred times” he goes “shit shit shit shit shit shit now I’m fucked”.
Ergo: He needs to chill and work out and everything will be okey. Sorry for the english, not used to writing in it…
But no matter how much time Beckham spent training
He would never have been as good as, for instance, Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo. He simply hasn’t got the speed, coordination, agility or explosiveness. That’s not a matter of training hours, that’s just a matter of Beckham not possessing the same potential as those two players. Likewise, he hasn’t got the awareness and football brain to be a Xabi Alonso or Andrea Pirlo. Some things are not a matter of effort.
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MMA is a little different though
You can base your entire game around a single skill and build your fighting style around it.
by discoandherpes on Jan 23, 2012 6:26 AM EST up reply actions
But in the case of Guillard it’s skills outside his base (his vulnerability to submissions) that are getting him in trouble. And that’s the point of all this. You can be good at some part of any sport, but that’s no guarantee one will inevitably become good at every aspect. As someone else says here somewhere, Demian Maia is probably about as good as striker as he’s gonna be, and it’s not great. And that cost him against Marquardt, and may do so again. Likewise, maybe Guillard just isn’t going to ever be even a passable submission grappler.
"You know, these guys want to talk about God. 'Oh, I want to thank God. I want to thank God.' Listen, I'm a God-fearing man, go to church every Sunday and have since I was a boy. But if I ever found out that God cared one way or another about a borderline illegal fist-fight on Saturday night, I would be so greatly disappointed that it would make rethink my entire belief system." ~ Chael Sonnen.
'Time'
is merely one component. And Guillard actually has that on his side: he owns over 40 professional fights. It’s not just the amount of time training, but what kind of time. Does anyone really think Melvin doesn’t train jiu jitsu? He is simply not a skilled grappler in my opinion.
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by David Castillo on Jan 22, 2012 9:07 PM EST up reply actions
Bingo. So many of the mistakes he makes are mishandling BJJ 101, not failing to be at a black belt level or something. It’s not stuff he’s never been taught, it’s things he’s no doubt been shown and drilled on time after time, but he just isn’t capable of properly internalizing to master it and apply it in the cage.
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Good write up, but on the Pat Barry thing:
The fact he could defend and get to a spot to do THAT was awesome. Yeah, he needs guard work, but give him some credit.
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I'll agree with that for sure
And I give him all the credit for the epic KO. I just don’t fully agree with everything written since the fight highlighting his ‘tranformation’ and ‘outstanding improvement’ with direct reference to his ground game. Great performance overall but I think this article is pretty fair.
Don't be scared Gomi...
by ThatsHowIRoll on Jan 22, 2012 6:16 PM EST up reply actions
It took a minor
miracle for him to get to that point. But like I said above in my reply, can you honestly he won’t get submitted the next time someone takes him to the ground? The way Morecraft fell into mount while Barry attempted a guillotine was atrocious, and hard to watch.
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by David Castillo on Jan 22, 2012 9:02 PM EST up reply actions
The fact that he was in those bad positions isn't a very good sign but
You’re saying “Can you honestly say he won’t get submitted the next time someone takes him to the ground” at the same time can you say that 6 months to a year ago he would’ve been able to get out of them at all? I find that to be atleast a little encouraging.
" Its like when I'm right I'm right, when I'm wrong I coulda been right, so I'm still right cause I coulda been wrong, you know, and I'm sorry cause I could be wrong right now, I could be wrong, but I'm right..." Bama
I freaking love Morecrafts little spaz karate kick as he goes flying to the ground.
Oh no you didn't.--Nick Ring
by NickRingp4pGOAT on Jan 23, 2012 12:33 PM EST up reply actions
I’m not sure if I fully agree with the whole ‘fighter x isn’t capable of improving and can’t ever be as good fighter y’. At the highest level, I do believe that any fighter can beat the other one at any given night. As far as Melvin is concerned, I think he needs to see a sports psychologist immediately. He has good training partners that can help him improve in areas he needs improvement on and is very confident in his abilities, but he panics like no other when taken out of his comfort zone. Maybe he should even have a talk with GSP.
Do you really believe
“At the highest level, I do believe that any fighter can beat the other one at any given night”? Do you think there’s any night where Shields, Koscheck, Hardy, or Alves could beat GSP? What about Rampage beating Jones? Out of the 7 UFC Champions last 2 title defenses there’s only two where I could say there opponents could win on any given night and that’s Cruz/Faber and Silva/Sonnen.
" Its like when I'm right I'm right, when I'm wrong I coulda been right, so I'm still right cause I coulda been wrong, you know, and I'm sorry cause I could be wrong right now, I could be wrong, but I'm right..." Bama
hes still young
hes only 28 and no one can match his athleticism.
give him some more time to improve his jj game.
last couple of years he made a great improvement in wrestling
so who knows? in couple of years, he will improve his jj game too and work back to the top
Matt "The Terror" Serra!!!!
His youth
would normally be on his side, but he has over forty professional fights. If he could have, he would have, etc. His wrestling has always been pretty strong insofar as he keeps his balance, but his technique is lacking, and once he’s on his back he gets overanxious.
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by David Castillo on Jan 22, 2012 9:04 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah
Let’s not forget the tendency of fighters to dramatically decline after nine years of experience; Melvin’s already there. He’s been fighting as long as Shogun and Carlos Condit, and longer than Rashad.
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by Patrick Wyman on Jan 22, 2012 9:26 PM EST up reply actions
There is always potential for a resurgance and a turnaround
But some flaws might be too funamental.
He doesn’t have the best chin. Joe Stevenson and Joe Lauzon didn’t hit him with some loaded up punch…they hit him with what were more or less jabs and he was hurt badly both times.
So I don’t think you can say him being hurt/dropped by punches like that are mental mistakes…I think it is safe to say that he has a weak chin.
So that’s fact 1: He has a weak chin.
How do you fight to counteract not having the best chin? Overeem is an example of a guy who certainly doesn’t have a cast iron chin, but he has reformed his style to minimize taking punishment, he keeps a high guard and makes sure to never leave himself open. He’s been tagged and come through it, but he fights in a way to never get hit…which is a smart thing to do when you don’t have Anderson Silva’s chin.
What does Melvin do? He darts in and out at fast speeds with his hands down. That’s completely counter-intuitive to what you want to do. The faster you go in, the harder a punch from your opponent feels if they can time a counter right…but he does it anyway. The whole time he is in a fight you just have to pray he doesn’t sprint right into a punch…because you know he can’t take it.
What is one of the biggest aspects of his game? He wants to stay on his feet. Alright, when you want to stay on your feet…you typically stick to a more boxing oriented attack, at least for the early goings of the fight.
What does Melvin do? He spams flying knees, he throws them all the time, just because most of the time, he is fast enough for it not to matter(just like running around with his hands down) but again, if you are rooting for him, you are left praying that he never gets timed and taken down…because he absolutely panics when he is taken down.
So I mean…it would SEEM that the keys to improvement are clear. Even without reforming the way he trains BJJ or anything like that, if he became dead set on always keeping his hands up and on never or very rarely throwing a flying knee…that automatically would erase half of his problems.
He fights stupid…any other fighter would be kicked in the head for fighting like he does…but he gets away with it most of the time due to his speed and overall athleticism…but every now and then it costs him.
If he fixes even those basic things…you have to believe it would make him twice as dangerous.
"You got Floyd Mayweather making 25 million dollars...he can't stop the double leg." - Nick Diaz
I don't like Melvin at all but
To say that the punches that Stevenson and Lauzon hit him with were “More or less jabs” isn’t really fair. You don’t know what they felt like, how hard they were, or if they just hit that spot perfectly. I’m not saying he has a good chin or bad chin(If I had to give my opinion on it I’d probably lean to the bad side) I just think acting like the punches were nothing but taps is a bit of a stretch.
" Its like when I'm right I'm right, when I'm wrong I coulda been right, so I'm still right cause I coulda been wrong, you know, and I'm sorry cause I could be wrong right now, I could be wrong, but I'm right..." Bama
Incredible Work
I feel more and more that who people are is who they portray themselves to be. Not just in this case, but with people in general
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Great article
Enjoyed reading that.
I think sometimes we expect too much of MMA fighters. I think we just have to accept that a lot of these ‘early’ guys came over from one discipline – for example high school wrestlers, kickboxers or BJJ and then cross trained into MMA. They will always have holes in their game somewhere in most cases.
What I am interested in and really looking forward to is watching the next breed of fighters who have trained MMA from an early age. I think guys are going to be so well rounded in a few years (if they aren’t already!).
If you’d told me 10 years ago MMA would be where it is today I’d have thought you were crazy, will be interesting to see how it evolves from here.
The expectation isn't based on something we have yet to see
If Melvin went out tomorrow and knocked out Frankie Edgar or Ben Henderson in the first round, would anyone really be shocked? We have seen that he has what it takes to be great, even if it is unrealistic to ever expect it out of him.
on that same note would you be shocked if Edgar or Henderson tapped Melvin out in less than a minute?
he is a feast or famine fighter, but people assume that he will become all feast and no famine.
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-George Patton
"The complete man must work, study and wrestle."
-Aristotle
Nope, not at all
My point was that he is similar to Robbie Lawler. He has the capability to win every fight, so people expected him to do better than he actually did in MMA.
When you have a realistic chance to beat anyone in your weight class, people are going to expect you to develop your other skills to take advantage of a quality that very few guys at that weight class have.
Is it fair? Maybe not, but there are a lot less athletically gifted fighters that are champions.
by discoandherpes on Jan 23, 2012 7:25 AM EST up reply actions
melvin drowns once you get him on the ground and he is nowhere near the cage
he straight up panics like he has never been in that position before. melvin is not going change if i was dana i would give him another strong grappler just to prove if he really wants to be in the ufc. i say give him Nik Lentz or somebody who can strike and still has a good ground game. let him fight cowboy donald is not dumb he starts getting beat on the feat he is going take him down
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