Jim Miller Opens As Favorite Over Melvin Guillard
by Tim Burke on Jan 12, 2012 5:00 PM EST
in UFC Gambling
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While the focus is on UFC 142 this weekend, the betting line for next weekend's UFC on FX 1 main event between Jim Miller and Melvin Guillard dropped his week, and Miller is the betting favorite. Bookmaker opened the line on Tuesday, and it hasn't moved at all as of yet. Here's what it looks like:
Miller -200
Guillard +150
Guillard is coming off the surprising loss to Joe Lauzon at UFC 136, while Miller is coming off a decision loss to Ben Henderson at UFC on Versus 5. Both had been on long winning streaks before their recent loss. In terms of the line, I believe this is about right. The fact that the bout is a three-round fight doesn't seem to make much of a difference, though Miller would probably have an advantage if it went five. Miller holds advantages in enough areas (wrestling, cardio, chin) to deserve the favorable line. But I'm sure that many people see value in Guillard, and I think the line will push down into the -160/+130 range around fight time.
Basically, if you want the best price on Melvin Guillard, get on it now.
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as he should IMO, guillard makes too many silly mistakes.
"How you expect to run with the wolves come night when you spend all day sparring with the puppies" - Omar Little
by The Omaplatapus on Jan 12, 2012 5:07 PM EST reply actions
That’s what happens when one guy lost his last fight in 15 minutes to the current title challenger and the other lost his last fight in 47 seconds against someone not in the top 10.
by Machiel Van on Jan 12, 2012 5:26 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I have this feeling that Guillard has learned from his mistakes and will come out fighting smart this time around. Of course, I feel this way every time he loses but still..
I wonder if he learned anything at Blackzilians..
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Vegas just faded Melvin.
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by Earl Montclair on Jan 12, 2012 5:15 PM EST via iPhone app reply actions 7 recs
He made an appearance a couple days or so ago to say that Anderson would never lose again or something
then someone said until Chael KOs him. Obviously this warranted a stern self-slapping command.
Miller by guillotine in the 2nd
Melvin’s beastly but dumb and will make a mistake within the first ten minutes of the fight.
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who looks like a mini Kevin Randleman
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by Earl Montclair on Jan 12, 2012 5:21 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
Lebron is a pretty big dude
I bet he’s bigger than Randleman.
"Everyone has a plan until they’ve been hit."
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definitely
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i bet none of Randleman's teammates boned his mom.
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by Earl Montclair on Jan 12, 2012 5:23 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
What?
Writer for Blistered Thumbs
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by MicahtheCynic on Jan 12, 2012 10:26 PM EST up reply actions
delonte west
Screwed lebrons momma
by kingnate78 on Jan 13, 2012 12:28 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Ah shit, I thought I posted mine first but after a refresh
You win…..Damn you, Montclair!
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No no, a mini Kevin Randleman!
K-1 Level Predictions Team
BE Civil War Season 1 Champion!
Brock Lesnar's Cruelty-Free Pest Control
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Realistic
In that he has an insane amount of talent but immediately folds when he comes close to reaching the top.
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Love Melvin at +150
Wouldn’t surprise me if the fight ended up at even money, though.
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just wondering
why is this not 5 rounds I thought all main events were?
I think I read recently...
PPV/Fox cards will be 5 round mains, and FX/Fuel cards will be 3 round mains.
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that’s fucking stupid, you will get guys angling now.
"How you expect to run with the wolves come night when you spend all day sparring with the puppies" - Omar Little
by The Omaplatapus on Jan 12, 2012 5:36 PM EST up reply actions
how much does miller look like a white paul harris/marquadt in that pic
"How you expect to run with the wolves come night when you spend all day sparring with the puppies" - Omar Little
by The Omaplatapus on Jan 12, 2012 5:35 PM EST reply actions
Yeah he kinda does.
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by SentientAndroid on Jan 12, 2012 5:38 PM EST up reply actions
Miller by sub prop bet or Guillard by KO prop bet is the way to go if you are going to bet on this fight.
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I dunno man….Miller can take a hell of a beating.
by Jesus H. Christ on Jan 12, 2012 5:41 PM EST up reply actions
Just saying, if you are going to bet on either guy, do the prop bet. I don’t think it will get to the point where Miller gets beat up for 3 rounds, he either gets knocked out or he taps Guillard.
"Joke you are a bad"
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by Jeffrey McCrum on Jan 12, 2012 5:45 PM EST up reply actions
whats a prop bet?
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by Our Bovine Public on Jan 12, 2012 5:46 PM EST up reply actions
It’s a proposition bet. Instead of betting on the straight outcome between two opponents/teams, you bet on specific outcomes or things that will happen. Betting on how many rounds a fight goes, how a fighter wins (KO, sub, decision, DQ), or who wins a tournament are the three most common prop bets in MMA. There are bazillions of options in other sports.
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ah
thanks
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All in the game yo, all in the game
by Our Bovine Public on Jan 12, 2012 6:27 PM EST up reply actions
In a couple weeks, do a search for super bowl prop bets.
You can bet on how many times the commentary teams say a certain word, exactly how long the national anthem will be, etc. Its insanity.
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by James Brady on Jan 13, 2012 12:13 AM EST up reply actions
Miller by sub
I don’t think there’s a lot of money to make on that bet, it’s the likeliest outcome
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as it should be Miller is more consistant and skilled fighter
Melvin has insane power and under Jacksons tutelage really started showing restrain under the Blackzillions idk
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Little spelling mistake
“loss to Joe Lauzon at UFC 136, while Millr”
Vegas! SLAP YO SELF!
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Miller has a tough chin and good submissions, which is Melvin's kryptonite
I think Melvin’s gonna get faded again.
"St-Pierre's riding him here now, like a f*cking bronco!"
Yup Melvin fade incoming
He’s getting faded worse than Kid from Kid ’n Play
Curious to see how Melvin comes out in this fight after the J-Lau loss.
To blitz or not to blitz. He’s got his work cut out for him for sure.
Oh no you didn't.--Nick Ring
by NickRingp4pGOAT on Jan 13, 2012 11:10 AM EST reply actions
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