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UFC Light Heavyweight Division: State of the Union

via UFC.com

With so many fights coming up spread across seven different weight classes, it's easy to lose track of what's happening in every division. Here, we take a look at where a particular division stands right now, and where it's headed.

This weekend, the UFC Light Heavyweight title is on the line as Jon Jones faces Rampage Jackson at UFC 135. It's a great fight full of interesting stories. On one side is Rampage's quest for redemption as he attempts to be just the second man in the history of the division to regain the title. On the other side, Jon Jones tries to break the revolving door of champions we've seen since Rampage ended the Chuck Liddell era.

But looking past Saturday paints a surprisingly stagnant picture of the Light Heavyweight division. There's almost no notable action scheduled in the division at all in the coming months, and a lot of men waiting to find out what's next.

Next in Line:

One man who knows what's next - Rashad Evans. The former champion was promised a title shot after his defeat of Tito Ortiz, and a showdown with either Rampage or Jones will make for a very compelling contest. Look for Rashad in a post-fight staredown on Saturday.

Of course, Rashad's been in this position before - patiently waiting for his shot. And it hasn't come. So while that's the next theoretical fight, no one knows better than Rashad that it's not a done deal until the bell rings.

Key Match Ups:

  • Dan Henderson vs. Mauricio Rua (UFC 139) - This one was just announced, and though it's still not 100%, it looks like this will be Strikeforce champion Henderson's return to the UFC. Considering Shogun's recent destruction of Forrest Griffin, I'd say the winner here is next up after Rashad.
  • Tito Ortiz vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (UFC 140) - I almost didn't include this, but don't forget that Tito was miraculously just one win away from a potential title fight earlier this summer. I'd be shocked to see either of this men as an actual title challenger, but you never know.

Future Contenders:

After Evans and the Hendo/Shogun winner, things get incredibly jammed. You have a mix of veterans and younger stars all stuck together, with no one clearly asserting themselves at the top, and few fights booked to help figure that out. Some possibilities:

  • Phil Davis - Mr. Wonderful was one big win away from a possible title shot when injury forced him out of the Rashad Evans fight. He's still not yet set for a return, but when he does, he will likely again be in a big fight situation.
  • Rich Franklin - Like Tito and Rogerio, he's highly unlikely to get a title shot, but his status all but guarantees him a big fight every time out. 
  • Alexander Gustafsson - Too early to put him at the top, but he's getting there. His last win was an impressive beat down of Matt Hamill, and another lopsided victory will really push him up.
  • Lyoto Machida - The former champion has lost a ton of momentum with his back to back loses to Shogun and Rampage, and his win over Randy Couture, while a highlight reel moment, wasn't enough to move him back up far. Still, he's a force in the division, and could get a shot very quickly.
  • King Mo Lawal - The #2 Light Heavyweight in Strikeforce looked good with his KO of Roger Gracie. He's got a very strong wrestling base, plus a flamboyant personality, and those two factors could easily take him right up to contention in the UFC.

Others to consider:

Not contenders, but two fighters to keep an eye on, for very different reasons:

  • Forrest Griffin - Another former champion now far outside the title picture. But unlike the others above, Forrest seems like a shell of himself these days. What do you possibly do with him at this point?
  • Ovince St. Preux - Lots of folks are high on this Strikeforce prospect. I'm not sold yet, but he's worth a look.

Ufc_135_button_medium

Poll
Who will be the next challenger after Rashad Evans?
Dan Henderson
762 votes
Shogun Rua
379 votes
Lyoto Machida
358 votes
Other
50 votes

1549 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 58 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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machida vs davis

I think that this is a must make matchup for the division. Machida needs a fight. And it can’t be against opposition like randy.

by XingYi on Sep 20, 2011 9:09 AM EDT via mobile reply actions  

Rampage will pop the fall season off as lhw champion

rampage will end the “Jon jones era” if that’s what yall call it.. watch me get about 20 responses off one simple true statement like that

by psychoblack on Sep 20, 2011 9:17 AM EDT reply actions  

You should keep a spreadsheet of BE bandwagoners

I’m not gonna call anyone out but there are some regulars who are really bad about this.

"Now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb."

by menckenstein on Sep 20, 2011 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

off one simple true statement like that

 . . . sigh. Opinions in truth’s clothing.

the "Jon jones era" if that’s what yall call it..

The only eras in the UFC are the GSP show and the reign of Anderson Silva (est. 2006). When Jon Jones successfully defends his title for the 3rd time then maybe, just maybe . . . we can call it an era.

Incidentally and quiet as kept, Frankie Edgar has two successful title defenses. If he defeats or draw Maynard he will reach defense #3.

-------- I LOVE MMA MATH! GSP > Anderson Silva > Fedor
Matt Serra <> GSP > Jake Shields > Dan Henderson > Ryo Chonan > Anderson Silva > Henderson > Fedor

by VeeisAnimated on Sep 20, 2011 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

a draw?

And a consensus opinion he lost the first penn fight. Hardly an era of dominance.

"Many have the will to win. Few have to will to prepare to win."

" A black belt only covers 2 inches of your ass. The rest is up to you." - Royce Gracie
"Wanderlei eventually got to his feet and stalked Fujita like a Japanese octopus in an all-female prison." - Sean Baby Cracked.com

by the-gentle-way on Sep 20, 2011 11:54 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

I don't concede

That he lost the first Penn fight. It was close. Now, I don’t expect Edgar to hold onto the title for all that long with Aldo likely moving up at some point. Speaking of… I do think we’re in the “Aldo era” as far as the lighter fighters are concerned.

by superflat on Sep 20, 2011 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

No one is expecting Edgar to hold on to his belt but look at him run, stick and move, sprawl and super-punch.

Just giving Edgar is props.

-------- I LOVE MMA MATH! GSP > Anderson Silva > Fedor
Matt Serra <> GSP > Jake Shields > Dan Henderson > Ryo Chonan > Anderson Silva > Henderson > Fedor

by VeeisAnimated on Sep 20, 2011 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Consensus opinion will not put at W on Penn’s record.

Draw? Huh.
I’m talking about his last fight with Maynard.

As far as the whole Penn vs Edgar fights go. Edgar won in Abu Dhabi then he won defeated Penn in the rematch. Oh yeah, by the way . . . GSP did defeat Penn during their first match, Machida did defeat Shogun and Griffin defeated Rampage. We have to move on. The question I like to ask is . . . did they get their asses kicked? No.

-------- I LOVE MMA MATH! GSP > Anderson Silva > Fedor
Matt Serra <> GSP > Jake Shields > Dan Henderson > Ryo Chonan > Anderson Silva > Henderson > Fedor

by VeeisAnimated on Sep 20, 2011 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

How about the Dominator?

For a guy with 3 title defenses and an apparent lack of serious challengers in his weight class, he doesn’t get a ton of recognition.

by MS_Dos_Santos on Sep 20, 2011 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think

Rashad is obviously the next in line.

Machida should get the Jones vs Rampage loser.

Him against Jones would be a great fight, and he and Rampage of unfinished business.

So that would be good.

If Henderson beats Shogun, he could easily be the one thrown into a title after one big win.

If Shogun beats Henderson, it would still be a hard sell for him to get a title shot.

So if Shogun beats Henderson, he should fight the winner of the Jaones-Rampage loser vs Machida matchup for a title shot.

Loser of Henderson vs Shogun goes to Phil Davis

Winner of Rogerio and Ortiz goes to Gustaffson, loser goes to Franklin

Or maybe go straight to Davis vs Franklin

PACIFIC RIM
in theaters
July 12th, 2013

by Chris Groves on Sep 20, 2011 9:18 AM EDT reply actions  

I'll never understand how Machida is getting so ignored.

He has a 17-2 record with wins over Rich Franklin, Stephan Bonnar, BJ Penn, Tito Ortiz, Thiago Silva, Rashad Evans, Shogun Rua, Randy Couture and if the judges would be doing their jobs right he would have a win over Rampage on his record. He ended fights with a jumping front kick, gave Evans the stanky leg, was the first and only guy to stop Thiago Silva and headkicked Rich Franklin into oblivion. I don’t get why he gets overlooked so much.

by blutspender on Sep 20, 2011 9:20 AM EDT reply actions  

If you wanna argue he should have beaten Rampage

I’ll counterargue he should be 0-2 against Shogun.

by MemphisMike on Sep 20, 2011 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

But that doesn't make a difference

The decision in Machida-Shogun I was controversial enough that there would have been an immediate rematch had Machida lost. He would be at the exact same place in the division after your hypothetical Machida-Shogun II – fighting Rampage. Conversely, had Machida been awarded the victory in the Rampage fight, his Couture victory may well have been enough to have him fighting for the title now instead of ’Page.

K-1 Level Predictions

by FightingFighting on Sep 20, 2011 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

I really don't think there would have been a rematch if Machida had lost

And if we’re still playing hypotheticals, no way he fights Couture after coming of a win against Rampage. That wasn’t even my point. My point was that I hate when people say Machida got jobbed so hard in the Rampage fight, but then ignore the fact that Machida Shogun I was just as controversial a decision.

by MemphisMike on Sep 20, 2011 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

Because he dropped 2 in a row

And his last win was against Imhote Couture.

"Now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb."

by menckenstein on Sep 20, 2011 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

Imhotep* Couture

"Now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb."

by menckenstein on Sep 20, 2011 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

Damn Straight.

The North remembers...
Would you like Freys with that?

by iiowyn on Sep 20, 2011 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

Best fighter in the world?

You trolling?

"Now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb."

by menckenstein on Sep 20, 2011 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

Not at all.

The Return of The Dragon will be vicious.

by Urijah Bieber on Sep 20, 2011 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

Hope he puts on a show

But I doubt he’ll be wearing that belt again.

"Now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb."

by menckenstein on Sep 20, 2011 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

Reach advantage > elusiveness.

Don’t get me wrong I love Dragon. Probably my favorite LHW but even I have a hard time seeing him beating Jones.

by Spider_Vemon on Sep 20, 2011 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

Machida's issue is he has been "solved"

Now everyone knows what needs to be done to take away that “elusiveness” aspect of Machida’s game, so he either has to evolve in a big way or enjoy Fitchdom.

"Now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb."

by menckenstein on Sep 20, 2011 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

Rampage did really well using the same principles from Shogun's strategy

I’m not saying everyone can pull it off but the how-to is right there.

"Now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb."

by menckenstein on Sep 20, 2011 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

Speed and leg kigs had nothing to do with Page's

That was only Machida yeilding the center of the cage concerned with Rampage’s power. The only time that strategy would have ever worked was that ten minute span. Any time before or after that moment in their careers ends horribly for Page. IMO.

by Urijah Bieber on Sep 20, 2011 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

10 minutes in a 15 minute fight is all you need for the decision

Just saying!

"Now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb."

by menckenstein on Sep 20, 2011 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

I disagree

I don’t think Machida has been solved at all, unless the tactic is to walk forward into his attacks and trade. Which is a terrible strategy unless your name starts with Mauricio or Chuck

"i hate signatures...that, and hypocrisy"

by nannerb on Sep 20, 2011 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Machida still retreats straight back and even Rampage was able to use that against him

Not everyone has the striking acumen to use this against him but the path to victory has been laid out. Machida can still eat grapplers for breakfast though.

"Now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb."

by menckenstein on Sep 20, 2011 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Forrest maybe gets the Ortiz/Rogerio winner/loser

I think King Mo should definitely get Feijao next.

Not sure who to put OSP up against…but I say let him continue developing a bit.

PACIFIC RIM
in theaters
July 12th, 2013

by Chris Groves on Sep 20, 2011 9:21 AM EDT reply actions  

I like him too but he really needs to solidify his takedown defense.

-------- I LOVE MMA MATH! GSP > Anderson Silva > Fedor
Matt Serra <> GSP > Jake Shields > Dan Henderson > Ryo Chonan > Anderson Silva > Henderson > Fedor

by VeeisAnimated on Sep 20, 2011 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

He's a long way from the conversation

Let’s see him get a solid win at 205.

‎"My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world."

- Jack Layton

by Worldisart on Sep 20, 2011 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions  

Love him but he looked awful against Jardine

Long way to come back from that.

"Now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb."

by menckenstein on Sep 20, 2011 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

No mention of Feijao?

You mention Mo but not the man to beat him?

‎"My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world."

- Jack Layton

by Worldisart on Sep 20, 2011 9:38 AM EDT via mobile reply actions   1 recs

Anyone know the status of Thiago Silva? I know he’s suspended 1 year— is that retroactive back to the date of the DQ fight (Jan 1)?

by nastyem on Sep 20, 2011 9:42 AM EDT reply actions  

It should be. I think that’s how it worked for Chael.

by Jeffigatame on Sep 20, 2011 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

That list of future contenders needs more

LORENZ LARKIN!

Tatum: I think he's a good man. I like him. I got nothing against him, but I'm definitely gonna make orphans of his children.

by Dave Strummer on Sep 20, 2011 9:43 AM EDT reply actions  

Me too

I find him more interesting than OSP in a lot of ways.

Tatum: I think he's a good man. I like him. I got nothing against him, but I'm definitely gonna make orphans of his children.

by Dave Strummer on Sep 20, 2011 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

agreed

PACIFIC RIM
in theaters
July 12th, 2013

by Chris Groves on Sep 20, 2011 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

uhmmm . . . odd state of affairs
Tito Ortiz vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (UFC 140) – I almost didn’t include this, but don’t forget that Tito was miraculously just one win away from a potential title fight earlier this summer.

Ehhh, just because he defeated Ryan Bader? Yes, he looked good defeating Bader but I just don’t confuse the emotional reaction towards his victory with reality.

Phil Davis – Mr. Wonderful was one big win away from a possible title shot when injury forced him out of the Rashad Evans fight.

Ehhh . . I don’t think so. Yes, he defeated Nogueira but was that a victory that made the fans cheer? No.

  • Forrest Griffin isn’t considering Forrest Griffin.
  • Rich Franklin? Future contender? In what division. His last fight was against Forrest Griffin. Franklin is only there to put on a show.

-------- I LOVE MMA MATH! GSP > Anderson Silva > Fedor
Matt Serra <> GSP > Jake Shields > Dan Henderson > Ryo Chonan > Anderson Silva > Henderson > Fedor

by VeeisAnimated on Sep 20, 2011 9:55 AM EDT reply actions  

He is simply projecting what everyone was saying

Plenty of people were saying that if Tito pulled it off against Evans…that he’d be right there for a title shot. 2 big upsets in a short span of time.

And Davis was originally set to fight Rashad, and again, had he pulled off the upset…you could have argued a top contender status for Davis. Beating the #1 contender is kind of a big deal.

PACIFIC RIM
in theaters
July 12th, 2013

by Chris Groves on Sep 20, 2011 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

What plenty of people think and says doesn’t necessarily means it will happen? Joe Silva and company doesn’t plan their fights according to SB Ranking System or Sherdog’s ranking system. Besides there were plenty of people that also realized that Tito is still the same guy that couldn’t get a victory in years.

If Davis defeated Evans the same way he defeated Noguiera, yeah maybe he would be considered a contender but not necessarily on the same level as Rashad Evans. After all Evans beat a lot of top guys to solidify his position. To date, he still only has one loss on his record.

-------- I LOVE MMA MATH! GSP > Anderson Silva > Fedor
Matt Serra <> GSP > Jake Shields > Dan Henderson > Ryo Chonan > Anderson Silva > Henderson > Fedor

by VeeisAnimated on Sep 20, 2011 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions  

I know it won't happen but

I would like to see Gustafsson vs. Davis. Two young lions on a roll but I have a feeling the UFC is going to protect these two guys a la Cain and JDS.

"He's got a great package... and an unusual one!" Joe Rogan (of Lyoto Machida)

by crizzy on Sep 20, 2011 10:06 AM EDT reply actions  

Davis submitted Gustavson with an anaconda choke at UFC 112.

‎"My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world."

- Jack Layton

by Worldisart on Sep 20, 2011 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions  

Dang it. Totally forgot about that. Better wipe the crust out my eyes!

"He's got a great package... and an unusual one!" Joe Rogan (of Lyoto Machida)

by crizzy on Sep 20, 2011 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions  

it’s cool.

-------- I LOVE MMA MATH! GSP > Anderson Silva > Fedor
Matt Serra <> GSP > Jake Shields > Dan Henderson > Ryo Chonan > Anderson Silva > Henderson > Fedor

by VeeisAnimated on Sep 20, 2011 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I thought that was odd because they fought . . . yesterday.

-------- I LOVE MMA MATH! GSP > Anderson Silva > Fedor
Matt Serra <> GSP > Jake Shields > Dan Henderson > Ryo Chonan > Anderson Silva > Henderson > Fedor

by VeeisAnimated on Sep 20, 2011 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions  

Id like to see Phil Davis against Forest Griffin. I think Forest is on the tailend of his career so hes unlikely to be a contender again and really needs some fights against the next generation of stars so they can get some shine. In addition, I think Griffin provides some interesting challenges to Davis with his good defensive guard and scrambling ability as well as his decent striking and size. However, I still would think Davis would be the favorite in the fight and its fitting for both guys at this stage in their careers.

Some people would probably rather see Forest take an easier fight but I think this is a neccessary fight for the division.

by Rabbit915 on Sep 20, 2011 10:24 AM EDT reply actions  

fo griff

why do people always say Griffin looks like a shell of his former self when he lost to one of the greatest LHW of all time? He DID in fact beat Rich Franklin right before that….

by ajm fight fan on Sep 20, 2011 12:16 PM EDT reply actions  

He didn’t just lose to Shogun, he virtually had zero offense. I don’t think he looked very good in his wins over Franklin or Tito either. Honestly, the last time he looked good was ironically in his loss to Rashad. The last time he looked good in victory imo was when he beat Rampage for the belt, more than three years ago.

by Jeffigatame on Sep 20, 2011 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

This division needs the influx of talent from Strikeforce as soon as possible. Hendo is a good start, but then the younger guys like Mo, Feijao, OSP, Larkin, Mousasi are really needed. The UFC only has a couple of young, legit prospects in their pipeline, and that is Davis, and Gustafsson, and I guess an argument could be made for Kingsbury, but that ain’t much moving forward..

I could see a lot of the established guys in this division not being there 18 months from now. Shogun (Injuries), Rampage (Movies/ lack of interest in MMA), Hendo (Age), Forrest (retirement), Tito (Age, relevance), Lil’ Nog (Relevance), Rich Franklin (MW, Age, relevance), Thiago Silva (injuries, suspension, relevance), Machida (Spoken repeatedly about early retirement), Bonnar (Age, ability), Matyushenko (Age),

by dpk875 on Sep 20, 2011 6:52 PM EDT reply actions  

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