With tonight's UFC taking place in Philadelphia, what would you set the line at that someone comes out to "Eye of the Tiger"? -500? -1000? If you set the total number of Rocky songs at 1.5, do you have to adjust the over line to -200?
Odds current as of midnight CT last night.
This is a much better price on Evans than the -400 you're laying to take him straight up. Rashad is not a prolific finisher (more than half his wins come by decision), and Tito has only been finished by one man since 2000. (Guess who?) Plus, it's a three round fight, and Evans, who is also coming back from a 14-month layoff, is a notorious slow starter.
Evans/Ortiz completes 3 rounds -185 (5Dimes)
All of the above applies here. This is mostly a line-shopping play as both Bodog and Bookmaker have this line at -230. You also add the equity of Ortiz stealing two of three rounds.
Vitor Belfort -290 (5Dimes)
Yesterday, I referenced a story about Yoshihiro Akiyama flying to America without his seconds. Fortunately, Tim Burke found it on Nightmare of Battle. I haven't heard any updates or just who will corner Akiyama tomorrow night. Either way, I'm a little shocked to see Belfort this undervalued, but I suppose having Anderson Silva literally punt your head in your last fight will do that. Akiyama has a bunch of personal issues right now (the aforementioned seconds situation, his dojo closing in Japan, money), and has shown that his power and speed translates at middleweight.
There's a few other contenders for FOTN on paper, but this one is getting the best odds. That it's a couple of young featherweights opening the Spike broadcast helps. Mendes has put on two exciting performances against Javy Vazquez and Michihiro Omigawa. So long as Yahya can make Mendes work on the floor, we have a good shot here. Small play only.
Rory MacDonald wins KO of the Night +1500 (5Dimes)
MacDonald has longer odds than Akiyama, Ebersole, Rivera, Philippou, Mendes, Phan, and Brown. He has the same odds as Tito Ortiz. All that despite the fact that 5Dimes lists MacDonald as having a better shot of winning his fight by TKO/KO than most of the guys on that list. Another small play.